THT
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Will watch the date
THT
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So we have a load of ways to "TIME" the market
Here's a simple basic one based off actual past swings of the market
The timing here, calculates all the prior swings of the markets and forecasts a "ZONE" for an expected high - obviously if the market is not playing out to the tune of past swings, it's not going to, but this is the fun of trading!
So we have a "ZONE" marked in the Indicator window - The grey part is the "overlap" of timing dates and that naturally becomes the "HOT" zone - again that is not to say it will happen and it could happen after the hot zone overlap
We're just using basic mathematics to analyse past swings of actual price action and find out when a TOP/HIGH should occur based on the movements of the past - projected from the vertical dashed market line swing low
So we are looking for the period in TIME that hopefully this market stalls - it could be a top or just a temporary pause - we are just trying to find the zone when this rally fails or pauses - This method is not accurate enough to be able to say "The rally is over" etc, we have to have other factors for that
Lets see if anything happens
PS - The swings were created simply by using a factor of ATR - I could of used price moves x% to form the swing too, but I just stuck with the software's default settings and its a WEEKLY chart of the SP500 Index
Here's a simple basic one based off actual past swings of the market
The timing here, calculates all the prior swings of the markets and forecasts a "ZONE" for an expected high - obviously if the market is not playing out to the tune of past swings, it's not going to, but this is the fun of trading!
So we have a "ZONE" marked in the Indicator window - The grey part is the "overlap" of timing dates and that naturally becomes the "HOT" zone - again that is not to say it will happen and it could happen after the hot zone overlap
We're just using basic mathematics to analyse past swings of actual price action and find out when a TOP/HIGH should occur based on the movements of the past - projected from the vertical dashed market line swing low
So we are looking for the period in TIME that hopefully this market stalls - it could be a top or just a temporary pause - we are just trying to find the zone when this rally fails or pauses - This method is not accurate enough to be able to say "The rally is over" etc, we have to have other factors for that
Lets see if anything happens
PS - The swings were created simply by using a factor of ATR - I could of used price moves x% to form the swing too, but I just stuck with the software's default settings and its a WEEKLY chart of the SP500 Index
THT
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This set-up is worth its weight in gold and keeps with the big time-frame theme
Before we get into the set-up (which is super easy) lets think about trading
In most of those trading books you're taught to buy on retracements - they do sometimes work - notice on this first chart of a monthly time-frame, it would of been a hard crack and slog - this market based on what drove and is driving it, was from the high going to come all the way back down to that 2 area
How could you have known? You couldn't have - this is the fight you'll have
One thing we know for certain though is WHEN things turn bullish from bearish, those moving averages will flatten out, turn bull order and price will be above the 10 SMA or in this case the 12 SMA, corrections will nearly always form a higher swing low or simply track sideways - which one? We don't know
But we do know that if things are bullish, price highs will get taken out over and over etc
In the charts below notice these facts - yes you will ALWAYS get the odd swing low that gets exceeded, but if its QUICKLY recovered, it signals bullish tendencies
In this first chart, notice the bullishness of price, then 2009 came along, then bullish again, then a sideways contraction - this is on the monthly time-frame, which as you can see took YEARS to form
The main thing is by looking at this big picture, it told you the path of least resistance was likely to be upwards and we can profit from that
This next chart is the WEEKLY time-frame of the SAME market, but more recently
Notice we have the rally, then the sideways contraction, then whoosh up - its the similar formation! Just on a different time-frame
Notice on the monthly chart above price action sideways into and around the 12SMA with NOT mega swings = BULLISH
With the methods shown to you, you can easily get in on the LOWER time-frames
Now there's ALWAYS exceptions to the rules, but not that often
So rather than trying to force things to work (we've all done it!) - just let the markets come to you - we do not need to be trading every flick and move of markets
If things aren't clear, stay away
You can scan for these by the Indicators and then shove them onto a watchlist
These and double/triple bottoms don't require any fancy Gann box grids, retracements etc
I've shown you those previously to show you complicated methods, that take time to prepare and plan and as to what hocus pocus jiggery pokery price and time are doing behind the scenes BUT, by using super simple methods like these you can really prosper and it you'll not be chasing lows that
continue lower
More examples - you can figure the method out
Before we get into the set-up (which is super easy) lets think about trading
In most of those trading books you're taught to buy on retracements - they do sometimes work - notice on this first chart of a monthly time-frame, it would of been a hard crack and slog - this market based on what drove and is driving it, was from the high going to come all the way back down to that 2 area
How could you have known? You couldn't have - this is the fight you'll have
One thing we know for certain though is WHEN things turn bullish from bearish, those moving averages will flatten out, turn bull order and price will be above the 10 SMA or in this case the 12 SMA, corrections will nearly always form a higher swing low or simply track sideways - which one? We don't know
But we do know that if things are bullish, price highs will get taken out over and over etc
In the charts below notice these facts - yes you will ALWAYS get the odd swing low that gets exceeded, but if its QUICKLY recovered, it signals bullish tendencies
In this first chart, notice the bullishness of price, then 2009 came along, then bullish again, then a sideways contraction - this is on the monthly time-frame, which as you can see took YEARS to form
The main thing is by looking at this big picture, it told you the path of least resistance was likely to be upwards and we can profit from that
This next chart is the WEEKLY time-frame of the SAME market, but more recently
Notice we have the rally, then the sideways contraction, then whoosh up - its the similar formation! Just on a different time-frame
Notice on the monthly chart above price action sideways into and around the 12SMA with NOT mega swings = BULLISH
With the methods shown to you, you can easily get in on the LOWER time-frames
Now there's ALWAYS exceptions to the rules, but not that often
So rather than trying to force things to work (we've all done it!) - just let the markets come to you - we do not need to be trading every flick and move of markets
If things aren't clear, stay away
You can scan for these by the Indicators and then shove them onto a watchlist
These and double/triple bottoms don't require any fancy Gann box grids, retracements etc
I've shown you those previously to show you complicated methods, that take time to prepare and plan and as to what hocus pocus jiggery pokery price and time are doing behind the scenes BUT, by using super simple methods like these you can really prosper and it you'll not be chasing lows that
continue lower
More examples - you can figure the method out
THT
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We don't blindly trade or Invest - let others do that
I'm meant to be having the summer off! But once a trader, you can't resist and these only take a few hours a week at most to sift out
This one is one my radar:
Monthly chart = Possible Triple Bottom
If this works, the target is the 2023 swing high around 425p - remember NOTHING is guaranteed when trying to pick bottoms and we could get smelly fingers, so we HAVE to be careful - what we DO KNOW is that this market is setting up for a POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE Triple Bottom, doesn;t mean its definitely going to happen
Indicators oversold = a bounce of some degree WILL happen at some point in the next few months
WEEKLY:
Price is smack bang on a DOUBLE BOTTOM level
Price could bounce from here!
So we now have a bit of an issue with the old Triple Bottom scenario on the MONTHLY chart!
The options are price bounces from here or falls down into price range zone of the past major bottom (which is preferably, as that will create the TB)
ALL we can do is WAIT and WATCH to see what actually happens
Whatever happens price will regain the SMA's and as of yet, it ain't done that
DAILY:
Aggressive traders could buy the STOCHY reversal right now
Moderate traders will wait to see if price can turn the SMA's on this time-frame and look to get in
Cautious traders will wait for price to form a possible 123 off the lows, price above the 10SMA and some sort of pullback of which they can buy or buy a breakout of the #2 of the #123 formation or buy a x over of the SMA's
Anyway, whatever happens, if the triple bottom happens and its genuine (they can be fake moves) then price should be heading up to 400+ which will be a circa 40% move, if it glides there with little volatility
You can always be shaken out by wild volatility swings, but that's the price of trading we take
I'm meant to be having the summer off! But once a trader, you can't resist and these only take a few hours a week at most to sift out
This one is one my radar:
Monthly chart = Possible Triple Bottom
If this works, the target is the 2023 swing high around 425p - remember NOTHING is guaranteed when trying to pick bottoms and we could get smelly fingers, so we HAVE to be careful - what we DO KNOW is that this market is setting up for a POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE Triple Bottom, doesn;t mean its definitely going to happen
Indicators oversold = a bounce of some degree WILL happen at some point in the next few months
WEEKLY:
Price is smack bang on a DOUBLE BOTTOM level
Price could bounce from here!
So we now have a bit of an issue with the old Triple Bottom scenario on the MONTHLY chart!
The options are price bounces from here or falls down into price range zone of the past major bottom (which is preferably, as that will create the TB)
ALL we can do is WAIT and WATCH to see what actually happens
Whatever happens price will regain the SMA's and as of yet, it ain't done that
DAILY:
Aggressive traders could buy the STOCHY reversal right now
Moderate traders will wait to see if price can turn the SMA's on this time-frame and look to get in
Cautious traders will wait for price to form a possible 123 off the lows, price above the 10SMA and some sort of pullback of which they can buy or buy a breakout of the #2 of the #123 formation or buy a x over of the SMA's
Anyway, whatever happens, if the triple bottom happens and its genuine (they can be fake moves) then price should be heading up to 400+ which will be a circa 40% move, if it glides there with little volatility
You can always be shaken out by wild volatility swings, but that's the price of trading we take
tr1ps_master
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You have a very long term bias, which seems to be akin to what a fundamentals trader would be using, except you are only basing this on stats and technicals, so I will be interested in the following, if you are up for sharing:
1. I am curious, do you trade for living/hobby/job ?
2. You seem to be very good at technicals, are you a successful trader? if so, what have your results been over the years?
3. Do you mind sharing your the actual trades taken previously or ones that you are in right now, not just analysis?
1. I am curious, do you trade for living/hobby/job ?
2. You seem to be very good at technicals, are you a successful trader? if so, what have your results been over the years?
3. Do you mind sharing your the actual trades taken previously or ones that you are in right now, not just analysis?
THT
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You'll see there's monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 30m, 15m, 5m, 2m and 1 m charts shown throughout the thread, I don't have a long-term bias, and I show various things, the main thing this will never be a thread of all my trades, its mainly going to show you that you can predict the big turns in markets, posted months and years in advance, as there's nothing better than evidence in advance and its my way of giving something back for free
I have traded full-time since 2009, after a while you don't need to trade full-time, some of the trades shown are for my pension fund, which I am unable to access until 57 (I'm currently 50) and for that I don't want the hassle of quick fire trades, I prefer a more set and manage once a week type thing - other trades I show are for day, swing trades - I don't show every trade and I have no plans to, sometimes I take months (even years sometimes) off to suit me with no trading
I'm definitely not a fundamentals trader/Investor - most of the time I don't even look to see what a company does
I'd class myself as a pretty good trader, results over the years from day/swing trading have been triple digits (per year, not cumulative), same for the pension fund using the long term techniques, but sometimes I have swing traded the pension fund too, if nothing on the weekly's has showed up for a while and something appears on the daily - again over the years, some year's I've simply not done anything and got away from trading and thinking about it all, this was especially true when my children were growing up in the 2010's
I'm not your typical trader - I have no interest in amassing millions or having a flash house/car and I don't have to trade every month to maintain my lifestyle - If I were selling something, then I'd have to, but I don't and never will, so I have the freedom to use the markets to my advantage as and when I wish/need to, which isn't much nowadays
This may change next year as I plan to build my children a pot each to secure them for life, which will no doubt involve getting more involved in the markets than I am currently doing, but that can be a flexible thing
Trades I'm in are Burberry PLC & Safestore holdings PLC (not shown that one on here) - that's it, both were double bottoms on the weekly chart - Can't remember if I posted Burberry last year when it was setting up for the cycle or if I have only shared this latest double bottom move the other month, anyway, one of them was mentioned prior to the turn
Recently cashed in trades were Natural Gas, AAF and Fresnillio
But they were longer term trades - I haven't traded shorter than that for a while and have no plans to for the rest of this year, the only trade possibility on my radar is the DOM one now and that will be for the ISA and SIPP
That is likely to be my last trade of the year as I will be heading off to follow the Tour De France and Spanish Tour in July and August as well as having some down time at the cricket over the summer months
THT
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Let me show you the short term stuff - This stuff is worth a fortune and you're getting it for free!
OK so for this example what I wanted was a market - ANY market, if a method WORKS, it works on ANY market and ANY time-frame - That was in a bullish position chart wise, not picture perfect but bullish all the same on the DAILY time-frame with a STOCH position of OVERSOLD
WHY?
Because "IF" the market was bullish, then when the stoch reverses you should see price appreciation UPWARDS of which you can EXPLOIT on the LOWER time-frames
Here's the sequence
The WEEKLY is shown just to show you its position
BULL TREND = in play, PRICE ABOVE the SMA's, 2RSI was OS and bounced, price complying with expectation on weekly tf - STOCH = was bearish
Now the big swing down from FEB'25 "could" be an indication of this market topping out or going sideways, but you can still trade these positions on the lower time-frames as long as everything remains bullish
So here's the DAILY chart:
Stoch at the swing low made a bullish reversal, 2RSI was OS a couple of bars back and 13RSI was around 50% - "IF" price is bullish, there is a ultra high probability of a price bounce upwards, based off these factors AND the WEEKLY factors if taking them into consideration
PRICE had made a series of bullish swings with higher lows
You could trade the daily chart or drop down and trade lower time-frames, by trading either breakouts/SMA xovers or breakouts of the highs etc
The expectation was and has happened bullish price movement upwards to some degree - even though to start with the SMA's weren't in perfect order on the daily set up chart, if price did what we thought it might, then it would sort itself out
You'd of NOT attempted this if the daily chart was not showing signs of bullishness, you'd be looking to short things
Hourly Cahrt:
Could of bought the double bottom, the circles area on a pullback or breakout etc
Finer details 15 min chart:
Remember the 123? right off the low!
You get the picture - If price is going UP, then you'll get TRENDS forming on the lower tf's and you know what they say about trends
So we would have been making decisions on that swing low bar with the blue line under it - I've just shown you how it panned out thereafter (I did not trade it - just showing you an example) and you can see how by using higher time-frames for the set-up you can get 3R+ by trading off the lower time-frames! That is what it is all about
Here's some maths for you:
Number of these trades per year = 100 (2-3 per week!)
Winners = 60% (It's actually higher than this!) = 60
Losers = 40% = 40
Risk = 1% per trade of account
= 40% loss
Winning average trade = 2.5% = 60*2.5 = 150%
Nett = 150-40 = 110% - mistakes/bad judgement = 40% = 70%
Most people don't even make 10% on their Investments and here's a method which makes a huge % return - you won't believe me but these figures are actually on the cautious side - its a triple digit method, as you'd learn to control the mistakes and errors and you'd have a better win rate and your average R profit would be higher than 2.5R
The trick is catching the turn based off the DAILY/WEEKLY reversal - big time-frames move more than if you were trying to do this with a hourly/15min/3 min set-up (although that works fine too)
Even if you did 2R per AVERAGE winning trade, its still something great - then what if you did 200 trades per year rather than just 100!!!!!!!!!!
Aggressive traders will have more losses than the cautious traders, just bear that in mind
This isn't my method, I learned it off Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders from his book he published in the 2000's - EDIT: I just adapted the use of the multiple Indicator time-frames to suit me rather than use Elliott Wave
Now bearing in mind my reply to the comment above - you'll be wondering why I don't trade the hell out of this all the time as well as the double/triple bottom method on the weekly time-frame?
I simply cannot be bothered and more Importantly I don't NEED to trade full-time, I can take the next few years off if I wish - I am more than happy to make 50%+ from the weekly charts per year, with less hassle, less time at the screens - but when I was starting out, I did and I made some exceptional high end triple digit returns - obviously it helps if the main markets are mega bullish as they were in the 2010's
Here's an Intra-day example from yesterday: again example only - I did NOT trade this, I'm showing this method to a friend
Higher time-frame was the HOURLY
The 10 min stoch didn't pull back so you would have had to buy the breakouts - the 3 min stoch did pull back - choice is yours
OK so for this example what I wanted was a market - ANY market, if a method WORKS, it works on ANY market and ANY time-frame - That was in a bullish position chart wise, not picture perfect but bullish all the same on the DAILY time-frame with a STOCH position of OVERSOLD
WHY?
Because "IF" the market was bullish, then when the stoch reverses you should see price appreciation UPWARDS of which you can EXPLOIT on the LOWER time-frames
Here's the sequence
The WEEKLY is shown just to show you its position
BULL TREND = in play, PRICE ABOVE the SMA's, 2RSI was OS and bounced, price complying with expectation on weekly tf - STOCH = was bearish
Now the big swing down from FEB'25 "could" be an indication of this market topping out or going sideways, but you can still trade these positions on the lower time-frames as long as everything remains bullish
So here's the DAILY chart:
Stoch at the swing low made a bullish reversal, 2RSI was OS a couple of bars back and 13RSI was around 50% - "IF" price is bullish, there is a ultra high probability of a price bounce upwards, based off these factors AND the WEEKLY factors if taking them into consideration
PRICE had made a series of bullish swings with higher lows
You could trade the daily chart or drop down and trade lower time-frames, by trading either breakouts/SMA xovers or breakouts of the highs etc
The expectation was and has happened bullish price movement upwards to some degree - even though to start with the SMA's weren't in perfect order on the daily set up chart, if price did what we thought it might, then it would sort itself out
You'd of NOT attempted this if the daily chart was not showing signs of bullishness, you'd be looking to short things
Hourly Cahrt:
Could of bought the double bottom, the circles area on a pullback or breakout etc
Finer details 15 min chart:
Remember the 123? right off the low!
You get the picture - If price is going UP, then you'll get TRENDS forming on the lower tf's and you know what they say about trends
So we would have been making decisions on that swing low bar with the blue line under it - I've just shown you how it panned out thereafter (I did not trade it - just showing you an example) and you can see how by using higher time-frames for the set-up you can get 3R+ by trading off the lower time-frames! That is what it is all about
Here's some maths for you:
Number of these trades per year = 100 (2-3 per week!)
Winners = 60% (It's actually higher than this!) = 60
Losers = 40% = 40
Risk = 1% per trade of account
= 40% loss
Winning average trade = 2.5% = 60*2.5 = 150%
Nett = 150-40 = 110% - mistakes/bad judgement = 40% = 70%
Most people don't even make 10% on their Investments and here's a method which makes a huge % return - you won't believe me but these figures are actually on the cautious side - its a triple digit method, as you'd learn to control the mistakes and errors and you'd have a better win rate and your average R profit would be higher than 2.5R
The trick is catching the turn based off the DAILY/WEEKLY reversal - big time-frames move more than if you were trying to do this with a hourly/15min/3 min set-up (although that works fine too)
Even if you did 2R per AVERAGE winning trade, its still something great - then what if you did 200 trades per year rather than just 100!!!!!!!!!!
Aggressive traders will have more losses than the cautious traders, just bear that in mind
This isn't my method, I learned it off Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders from his book he published in the 2000's - EDIT: I just adapted the use of the multiple Indicator time-frames to suit me rather than use Elliott Wave
Now bearing in mind my reply to the comment above - you'll be wondering why I don't trade the hell out of this all the time as well as the double/triple bottom method on the weekly time-frame?
I simply cannot be bothered and more Importantly I don't NEED to trade full-time, I can take the next few years off if I wish - I am more than happy to make 50%+ from the weekly charts per year, with less hassle, less time at the screens - but when I was starting out, I did and I made some exceptional high end triple digit returns - obviously it helps if the main markets are mega bullish as they were in the 2010's
Here's an Intra-day example from yesterday: again example only - I did NOT trade this, I'm showing this method to a friend
Higher time-frame was the HOURLY
The 10 min stoch didn't pull back so you would have had to buy the breakouts - the 3 min stoch did pull back - choice is yours
Last edited:
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