THT
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Will watch the date
THT
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So we have a load of ways to "TIME" the market
Here's a simple basic one based off actual past swings of the market
The timing here, calculates all the prior swings of the markets and forecasts a "ZONE" for an expected high - obviously if the market is not playing out to the tune of past swings, it's not going to, but this is the fun of trading!
So we have a "ZONE" marked in the Indicator window - The grey part is the "overlap" of timing dates and that naturally becomes the "HOT" zone - again that is not to say it will happen and it could happen after the hot zone overlap
We're just using basic mathematics to analyse past swings of actual price action and find out when a TOP/HIGH should occur based on the movements of the past - projected from the vertical dashed market line swing low
So we are looking for the period in TIME that hopefully this market stalls - it could be a top or just a temporary pause - we are just trying to find the zone when this rally fails or pauses - This method is not accurate enough to be able to say "The rally is over" etc, we have to have other factors for that
Lets see if anything happens
PS - The swings were created simply by using a factor of ATR - I could of used price moves x% to form the swing too, but I just stuck with the software's default settings and its a WEEKLY chart of the SP500 Index
Here's a simple basic one based off actual past swings of the market
The timing here, calculates all the prior swings of the markets and forecasts a "ZONE" for an expected high - obviously if the market is not playing out to the tune of past swings, it's not going to, but this is the fun of trading!
So we have a "ZONE" marked in the Indicator window - The grey part is the "overlap" of timing dates and that naturally becomes the "HOT" zone - again that is not to say it will happen and it could happen after the hot zone overlap
We're just using basic mathematics to analyse past swings of actual price action and find out when a TOP/HIGH should occur based on the movements of the past - projected from the vertical dashed market line swing low
So we are looking for the period in TIME that hopefully this market stalls - it could be a top or just a temporary pause - we are just trying to find the zone when this rally fails or pauses - This method is not accurate enough to be able to say "The rally is over" etc, we have to have other factors for that
Lets see if anything happens
PS - The swings were created simply by using a factor of ATR - I could of used price moves x% to form the swing too, but I just stuck with the software's default settings and its a WEEKLY chart of the SP500 Index
THT
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This set-up is worth its weight in gold and keeps with the big time-frame theme
Before we get into the set-up (which is super easy) lets think about trading
In most of those trading books you're taught to buy on retracements - they do sometimes work - notice on this first chart of a monthly time-frame, it would of been a hard crack and slog - this market based on what drove and is driving it, was from the high going to come all the way back down to that 2 area
How could you have known? You couldn't have - this is the fight you'll have
One thing we know for certain though is WHEN things turn bullish from bearish, those moving averages will flatten out, turn bull order and price will be above the 10 SMA or in this case the 12 SMA, corrections will nearly always form a higher swing low or simply track sideways - which one? We don't know
But we do know that if things are bullish, price highs will get taken out over and over etc
In the charts below notice these facts - yes you will ALWAYS get the odd swing low that gets exceeded, but if its QUICKLY recovered, it signals bullish tendencies
In this first chart, notice the bullishness of price, then 2009 came along, then bullish again, then a sideways contraction - this is on the monthly time-frame, which as you can see took YEARS to form
The main thing is by looking at this big picture, it told you the path of least resistance was likely to be upwards and we can profit from that
This next chart is the WEEKLY time-frame of the SAME market, but more recently
Notice we have the rally, then the sideways contraction, then whoosh up - its the similar formation! Just on a different time-frame
Notice on the monthly chart above price action sideways into and around the 12SMA with NOT mega swings = BULLISH
With the methods shown to you, you can easily get in on the LOWER time-frames
Now there's ALWAYS exceptions to the rules, but not that often
So rather than trying to force things to work (we've all done it!) - just let the markets come to you - we do not need to be trading every flick and move of markets
If things aren't clear, stay away
You can scan for these by the Indicators and then shove them onto a watchlist
These and double/triple bottoms don't require any fancy Gann box grids, retracements etc
I've shown you those previously to show you complicated methods, that take time to prepare and plan and as to what hocus pocus jiggery pokery price and time are doing behind the scenes BUT, by using super simple methods like these you can really prosper and it you'll not be chasing lows that
continue lower
More examples - you can figure the method out
Before we get into the set-up (which is super easy) lets think about trading
In most of those trading books you're taught to buy on retracements - they do sometimes work - notice on this first chart of a monthly time-frame, it would of been a hard crack and slog - this market based on what drove and is driving it, was from the high going to come all the way back down to that 2 area
How could you have known? You couldn't have - this is the fight you'll have
One thing we know for certain though is WHEN things turn bullish from bearish, those moving averages will flatten out, turn bull order and price will be above the 10 SMA or in this case the 12 SMA, corrections will nearly always form a higher swing low or simply track sideways - which one? We don't know
But we do know that if things are bullish, price highs will get taken out over and over etc
In the charts below notice these facts - yes you will ALWAYS get the odd swing low that gets exceeded, but if its QUICKLY recovered, it signals bullish tendencies
In this first chart, notice the bullishness of price, then 2009 came along, then bullish again, then a sideways contraction - this is on the monthly time-frame, which as you can see took YEARS to form
The main thing is by looking at this big picture, it told you the path of least resistance was likely to be upwards and we can profit from that
This next chart is the WEEKLY time-frame of the SAME market, but more recently
Notice we have the rally, then the sideways contraction, then whoosh up - its the similar formation! Just on a different time-frame
Notice on the monthly chart above price action sideways into and around the 12SMA with NOT mega swings = BULLISH
With the methods shown to you, you can easily get in on the LOWER time-frames
Now there's ALWAYS exceptions to the rules, but not that often
So rather than trying to force things to work (we've all done it!) - just let the markets come to you - we do not need to be trading every flick and move of markets
If things aren't clear, stay away
You can scan for these by the Indicators and then shove them onto a watchlist
These and double/triple bottoms don't require any fancy Gann box grids, retracements etc
I've shown you those previously to show you complicated methods, that take time to prepare and plan and as to what hocus pocus jiggery pokery price and time are doing behind the scenes BUT, by using super simple methods like these you can really prosper and it you'll not be chasing lows that
continue lower
More examples - you can figure the method out
THT
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We don't blindly trade or Invest - let others do that
I'm meant to be having the summer off! But once a trader, you can't resist and these only take a few hours a week at most to sift out
This one is one my radar:
Monthly chart = Possible Triple Bottom
If this works, the target is the 2023 swing high around 425p - remember NOTHING is guaranteed when trying to pick bottoms and we could get smelly fingers, so we HAVE to be careful - what we DO KNOW is that this market is setting up for a POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE Triple Bottom, doesn;t mean its definitely going to happen
Indicators oversold = a bounce of some degree WILL happen at some point in the next few months
WEEKLY:
Price is smack bang on a DOUBLE BOTTOM level
Price could bounce from here!
So we now have a bit of an issue with the old Triple Bottom scenario on the MONTHLY chart!
The options are price bounces from here or falls down into price range zone of the past major bottom (which is preferably, as that will create the TB)
ALL we can do is WAIT and WATCH to see what actually happens
Whatever happens price will regain the SMA's and as of yet, it ain't done that
DAILY:
Aggressive traders could buy the STOCHY reversal right now
Moderate traders will wait to see if price can turn the SMA's on this time-frame and look to get in
Cautious traders will wait for price to form a possible 123 off the lows, price above the 10SMA and some sort of pullback of which they can buy or buy a breakout of the #2 of the #123 formation or buy a x over of the SMA's
Anyway, whatever happens, if the triple bottom happens and its genuine (they can be fake moves) then price should be heading up to 400+ which will be a circa 40% move, if it glides there with little volatility
You can always be shaken out by wild volatility swings, but that's the price of trading we take
I'm meant to be having the summer off! But once a trader, you can't resist and these only take a few hours a week at most to sift out
This one is one my radar:
Monthly chart = Possible Triple Bottom
If this works, the target is the 2023 swing high around 425p - remember NOTHING is guaranteed when trying to pick bottoms and we could get smelly fingers, so we HAVE to be careful - what we DO KNOW is that this market is setting up for a POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE Triple Bottom, doesn;t mean its definitely going to happen
Indicators oversold = a bounce of some degree WILL happen at some point in the next few months
WEEKLY:
Price is smack bang on a DOUBLE BOTTOM level
Price could bounce from here!
So we now have a bit of an issue with the old Triple Bottom scenario on the MONTHLY chart!
The options are price bounces from here or falls down into price range zone of the past major bottom (which is preferably, as that will create the TB)
ALL we can do is WAIT and WATCH to see what actually happens
Whatever happens price will regain the SMA's and as of yet, it ain't done that
DAILY:
Aggressive traders could buy the STOCHY reversal right now
Moderate traders will wait to see if price can turn the SMA's on this time-frame and look to get in
Cautious traders will wait for price to form a possible 123 off the lows, price above the 10SMA and some sort of pullback of which they can buy or buy a breakout of the #2 of the #123 formation or buy a x over of the SMA's
Anyway, whatever happens, if the triple bottom happens and its genuine (they can be fake moves) then price should be heading up to 400+ which will be a circa 40% move, if it glides there with little volatility
You can always be shaken out by wild volatility swings, but that's the price of trading we take
tr1ps_master
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You have a very long term bias, which seems to be akin to what a fundamentals trader would be using, except you are only basing this on stats and technicals, so I will be interested in the following, if you are up for sharing:
1. I am curious, do you trade for living/hobby/job ?
2. You seem to be very good at technicals, are you a successful trader? if so, what have your results been over the years?
3. Do you mind sharing your the actual trades taken previously or ones that you are in right now, not just analysis?
1. I am curious, do you trade for living/hobby/job ?
2. You seem to be very good at technicals, are you a successful trader? if so, what have your results been over the years?
3. Do you mind sharing your the actual trades taken previously or ones that you are in right now, not just analysis?
THT
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You'll see there's monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 30m, 15m, 5m, 2m and 1 m charts shown throughout the thread, I don't have a long-term bias, and I show various things, the main thing this will never be a thread of all my trades, its mainly going to show you that you can predict the big turns in markets, posted months and years in advance, as there's nothing better than evidence in advance and its my way of giving something back for free
I have traded full-time since 2009, after a while you don't need to trade full-time, some of the trades shown are for my pension fund, which I am unable to access until 57 (I'm currently 50) and for that I don't want the hassle of quick fire trades, I prefer a more set and manage once a week type thing - other trades I show are for day, swing trades - I don't show every trade and I have no plans to, sometimes I take months (even years sometimes) off to suit me with no trading
I'm definitely not a fundamentals trader/Investor - most of the time I don't even look to see what a company does
I'd class myself as a pretty good trader, results over the years from day/swing trading have been triple digits (per year, not cumulative), same for the pension fund using the long term techniques, but sometimes I have swing traded the pension fund too, if nothing on the weekly's has showed up for a while and something appears on the daily - again over the years, some year's I've simply not done anything and got away from trading and thinking about it all, this was especially true when my children were growing up in the 2010's
I'm not your typical trader - I have no interest in amassing millions or having a flash house/car and I don't have to trade every month to maintain my lifestyle - If I were selling something, then I'd have to, but I don't and never will, so I have the freedom to use the markets to my advantage as and when I wish/need to, which isn't much nowadays
This may change next year as I plan to build my children a pot each to secure them for life, which will no doubt involve getting more involved in the markets than I am currently doing, but that can be a flexible thing
Trades I'm in are Burberry PLC & Safestore holdings PLC (not shown that one on here) - that's it, both were double bottoms on the weekly chart - Can't remember if I posted Burberry last year when it was setting up for the cycle or if I have only shared this latest double bottom move the other month, anyway, one of them was mentioned prior to the turn
Recently cashed in trades were Natural Gas, AAF and Fresnillio
But they were longer term trades - I haven't traded shorter than that for a while and have no plans to for the rest of this year, the only trade possibility on my radar is the DOM one now and that will be for the ISA and SIPP
That is likely to be my last trade of the year as I will be heading off to follow the Tour De France and Spanish Tour in July and August as well as having some down time at the cricket over the summer months
THT
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Let me show you the short term stuff - This stuff is worth a fortune and you're getting it for free!
OK so for this example what I wanted was a market - ANY market, if a method WORKS, it works on ANY market and ANY time-frame - That was in a bullish position chart wise, not picture perfect but bullish all the same on the DAILY time-frame with a STOCH position of OVERSOLD
WHY?
Because "IF" the market was bullish, then when the stoch reverses you should see price appreciation UPWARDS of which you can EXPLOIT on the LOWER time-frames
Here's the sequence
The WEEKLY is shown just to show you its position
BULL TREND = in play, PRICE ABOVE the SMA's, 2RSI was OS and bounced, price complying with expectation on weekly tf - STOCH = was bearish
Now the big swing down from FEB'25 "could" be an indication of this market topping out or going sideways, but you can still trade these positions on the lower time-frames as long as everything remains bullish
So here's the DAILY chart:
Stoch at the swing low made a bullish reversal, 2RSI was OS a couple of bars back and 13RSI was around 50% - "IF" price is bullish, there is a ultra high probability of a price bounce upwards, based off these factors AND the WEEKLY factors if taking them into consideration
PRICE had made a series of bullish swings with higher lows
You could trade the daily chart or drop down and trade lower time-frames, by trading either breakouts/SMA xovers or breakouts of the highs etc
The expectation was and has happened bullish price movement upwards to some degree - even though to start with the SMA's weren't in perfect order on the daily set up chart, if price did what we thought it might, then it would sort itself out
You'd of NOT attempted this if the daily chart was not showing signs of bullishness, you'd be looking to short things
Hourly Cahrt:
Could of bought the double bottom, the circles area on a pullback or breakout etc
Finer details 15 min chart:
Remember the 123? right off the low!
You get the picture - If price is going UP, then you'll get TRENDS forming on the lower tf's and you know what they say about trends
So we would have been making decisions on that swing low bar with the blue line under it - I've just shown you how it panned out thereafter (I did not trade it - just showing you an example) and you can see how by using higher time-frames for the set-up you can get 3R+ by trading off the lower time-frames! That is what it is all about
Here's some maths for you:
Number of these trades per year = 100 (2-3 per week!)
Winners = 60% (It's actually higher than this!) = 60
Losers = 40% = 40
Risk = 1% per trade of account
= 40% loss
Winning average trade = 2.5% = 60*2.5 = 150%
Nett = 150-40 = 110% - mistakes/bad judgement = 40% = 70%
Most people don't even make 10% on their Investments and here's a method which makes a huge % return - you won't believe me but these figures are actually on the cautious side - its a triple digit method, as you'd learn to control the mistakes and errors and you'd have a better win rate and your average R profit would be higher than 2.5R
The trick is catching the turn based off the DAILY/WEEKLY reversal - big time-frames move more than if you were trying to do this with a hourly/15min/3 min set-up (although that works fine too)
Even if you did 2R per AVERAGE winning trade, its still something great - then what if you did 200 trades per year rather than just 100!!!!!!!!!!
Aggressive traders will have more losses than the cautious traders, just bear that in mind
This isn't my method, I learned it off Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders from his book he published in the 2000's - EDIT: I just adapted the use of the multiple Indicator time-frames to suit me rather than use Elliott Wave
Now bearing in mind my reply to the comment above - you'll be wondering why I don't trade the hell out of this all the time as well as the double/triple bottom method on the weekly time-frame?
I simply cannot be bothered and more Importantly I don't NEED to trade full-time, I can take the next few years off if I wish - I am more than happy to make 50%+ from the weekly charts per year, with less hassle, less time at the screens - but when I was starting out, I did and I made some exceptional high end triple digit returns - obviously it helps if the main markets are mega bullish as they were in the 2010's
Here's an Intra-day example from yesterday: again example only - I did NOT trade this, I'm showing this method to a friend
Higher time-frame was the HOURLY
The 10 min stoch didn't pull back so you would have had to buy the breakouts - the 3 min stoch did pull back - choice is yours
OK so for this example what I wanted was a market - ANY market, if a method WORKS, it works on ANY market and ANY time-frame - That was in a bullish position chart wise, not picture perfect but bullish all the same on the DAILY time-frame with a STOCH position of OVERSOLD
WHY?
Because "IF" the market was bullish, then when the stoch reverses you should see price appreciation UPWARDS of which you can EXPLOIT on the LOWER time-frames
Here's the sequence
The WEEKLY is shown just to show you its position
BULL TREND = in play, PRICE ABOVE the SMA's, 2RSI was OS and bounced, price complying with expectation on weekly tf - STOCH = was bearish
Now the big swing down from FEB'25 "could" be an indication of this market topping out or going sideways, but you can still trade these positions on the lower time-frames as long as everything remains bullish
So here's the DAILY chart:
Stoch at the swing low made a bullish reversal, 2RSI was OS a couple of bars back and 13RSI was around 50% - "IF" price is bullish, there is a ultra high probability of a price bounce upwards, based off these factors AND the WEEKLY factors if taking them into consideration
PRICE had made a series of bullish swings with higher lows
You could trade the daily chart or drop down and trade lower time-frames, by trading either breakouts/SMA xovers or breakouts of the highs etc
The expectation was and has happened bullish price movement upwards to some degree - even though to start with the SMA's weren't in perfect order on the daily set up chart, if price did what we thought it might, then it would sort itself out
You'd of NOT attempted this if the daily chart was not showing signs of bullishness, you'd be looking to short things
Hourly Cahrt:
Could of bought the double bottom, the circles area on a pullback or breakout etc
Finer details 15 min chart:
Remember the 123? right off the low!
You get the picture - If price is going UP, then you'll get TRENDS forming on the lower tf's and you know what they say about trends
So we would have been making decisions on that swing low bar with the blue line under it - I've just shown you how it panned out thereafter (I did not trade it - just showing you an example) and you can see how by using higher time-frames for the set-up you can get 3R+ by trading off the lower time-frames! That is what it is all about
Here's some maths for you:
Number of these trades per year = 100 (2-3 per week!)
Winners = 60% (It's actually higher than this!) = 60
Losers = 40% = 40
Risk = 1% per trade of account
= 40% loss
Winning average trade = 2.5% = 60*2.5 = 150%
Nett = 150-40 = 110% - mistakes/bad judgement = 40% = 70%
Most people don't even make 10% on their Investments and here's a method which makes a huge % return - you won't believe me but these figures are actually on the cautious side - its a triple digit method, as you'd learn to control the mistakes and errors and you'd have a better win rate and your average R profit would be higher than 2.5R
The trick is catching the turn based off the DAILY/WEEKLY reversal - big time-frames move more than if you were trying to do this with a hourly/15min/3 min set-up (although that works fine too)
Even if you did 2R per AVERAGE winning trade, its still something great - then what if you did 200 trades per year rather than just 100!!!!!!!!!!
Aggressive traders will have more losses than the cautious traders, just bear that in mind
This isn't my method, I learned it off Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders from his book he published in the 2000's - EDIT: I just adapted the use of the multiple Indicator time-frames to suit me rather than use Elliott Wave
Now bearing in mind my reply to the comment above - you'll be wondering why I don't trade the hell out of this all the time as well as the double/triple bottom method on the weekly time-frame?
I simply cannot be bothered and more Importantly I don't NEED to trade full-time, I can take the next few years off if I wish - I am more than happy to make 50%+ from the weekly charts per year, with less hassle, less time at the screens - but when I was starting out, I did and I made some exceptional high end triple digit returns - obviously it helps if the main markets are mega bullish as they were in the 2010's
Here's an Intra-day example from yesterday: again example only - I did NOT trade this, I'm showing this method to a friend
Higher time-frame was the HOURLY
The 10 min stoch didn't pull back so you would have had to buy the breakouts - the 3 min stoch did pull back - choice is yours
Last edited:
THT
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Right last one for months - Just gone through and shown this for a friend again, so I may as well share
We are attempting to trade with the TREND, follow the though process because that is what works:
We are attempting to trade with the TREND, follow the though process because that is what works:
- WEEKLY chart - NOT shown = BULLISH / PRICE > 10SMA & SMA's in perfect order
- DAILY chart = 2RSI <25% day days AGO = should either carry on DOWN or BOUNCE - It BOUNCED
- PS you were told MONTHS AGO on this thread of the GBPUSD expected cycle - I'm not here to show trades, I'm showing you how to play the game and all the stuff that is going on, its then up to you if you want to learn
- 4 Hour chart = 2RSI<25% = either it'll continue DOWN or BOUNCE - It has BOUNCED - if trading you WANT to be in part of the bounce as price is highly likely to be rising as its bouncing! Price is also > 10SMA
- Hourly chart = Price >10SMA + perfect order + bullish mid indi window reversal = price should either go sideways or UP
- 30 min chart = Price pulling back sideways > 10SMA = bullish - you could trade the pullback or breakout on this time-frame
- 10 min chart = Price > 10SMA & Perfect Order + Stoch is <25% oversold = should keep going down or reverse and price action either goes sideways or up - you could trade the 10 min reversal upwards - the key here is the stoch being <25% with all the above, "IF" the price cycle is linked to the above, then the 10 min bars have to bounce, we don't know how much, so we can use a lower time-frame chart to try to get a few R profit if the trade works
- 3 min chart = consolidating based on all the above chart structures - Based off the above GBPUSD should be BULLISH never few hours, so we want to see if we can trade long obviously!
- The 1st couple of Stoch bull reversals on the 3 min chart align PERFECTLY with the 10 min chart stoch being <25% oversold - there should be a bounce based on the above - We get the 1st stoch reversal on the 3min after a pretty flat move, you'd buy a very tight ranged bar and stop just under the lowest low, this trade would have broken even most likely / Then you take the 2nd bull reversal as price basically came down to double bottom - the SMA's are twisting together, there's going to be a breakout, high probs is to the upside - obviously you never know 100%! - double bottom happens, 3min stoch makes a bull reversal on the green candle that pierces the SMA's, strategy is to go long once the HIGH of the green set-up bar is broken, that happens 4 x 3min bars later so 12 mins later, stop goes under the double bottom low price which is a handful of pips + any spread - then target however you wish or trail however you wish etc
- As this would have been a ultra short held trade all we are concerned about is the bounce/follow through of momentum potential - not some long term daily/weekly trend - in and out 2R+ then we look to repeat the process on other markets each day
- See how when everything is stacked towards the same direction, follow through to some degree happens and they tell you, you can't trade using Indicators!
tr1ps_master
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Hey THT, appreciate the response and you outlining your response in detail too.
Annual returns of 70% to triple digit returns are very good, exceptional I would say.
I see your method as using HTF for Bias and the lower timeframes for entry. The amount of indicators you have is more than I would have, but each to their own, if it works it works. Your entry has different criterias, either divergence on lower TF or market structure shift. These methods are definitely applicable to all markets.
Will be interesting to see your live trades going forward and where you are targeting your 2R-3R take profits.
I will carry on being an avid watcher/reader of the thread.
Cheers.
Annual returns of 70% to triple digit returns are very good, exceptional I would say.
I see your method as using HTF for Bias and the lower timeframes for entry. The amount of indicators you have is more than I would have, but each to their own, if it works it works. Your entry has different criterias, either divergence on lower TF or market structure shift. These methods are definitely applicable to all markets.
Will be interesting to see your live trades going forward and where you are targeting your 2R-3R take profits.
I will carry on being an avid watcher/reader of the thread.
Cheers.
THT
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This one is also on my double bottom watchlist - this would be a position trade
It is POSSIBLY setting up - at present it isn't a buy
Here's the analysis:
Monthly 2RSI is OS - in the coming few months there should be some sort of bounce/rally - how much? We do not know, what we do know is if it happens, it will form first on the lower time-frames
Weekly
OK it's not straight-forward - we have 2 possible level from which this could bounce from - IDEALLY the lowest low would be perfect, but we cannot control the market so we simply have to wait and watch
There is also the possibility that this isn't forming a DB and price goes further lower
The Indicators for a bounce are in place though - doesn't mean a bounce will happen, it means they are in an ideal position to bounce, should that be the course of action
DAILY
Remember the qualifiers for trends? Higher highs, higher lows, 123's, price regaining the SMA's, SMA's cross overs etc - their not in place yet, you can drill down to 60/30 min etc to watch for them
The Indicators ARE in a position for a bounce though, so aggressive traders could trade long at this point - That does not mean the Indicators are right though, they could reverse then come back down before taking off - there's always risks
IF price were right at that SEPT'24 low price with the Indicators as they are, I'd be putting a trade on
A trade right now would require a too large stop for me - hence why I'm watching
If I decide to buy this, I'd be holding it for months
You will pick up shares in these positions with a 2RSI scan <25% on the WEEKLY time-frame, because at every viable DB out there, 2RSI will be <25% on a weekly TF when its setting up
The Initial target would be 700p
That is a potential 60% return on the price
If this works out then think about what price HAS to do - It will give you multiple trading opportunities as it moves upwards, then you can buy the dips, pullbacks, breakouts and also on lower time-frames etc etc - You have a solid plan of action IF (possibly WHEN) price does as you expect and if we are simply WRONG, then guess what? We don't risk our money on any trade
Also there is absolutely no guarantee that price will even get to 700p - So we are not guaranteed that return, price might do something crazy that forces an early sale or it might only get to 500p and quit - We have no idea of what price WILL do, what we know is that this is setting up to be a possible double bottom trade, IF it works then price should get up towards 700p ish, whether it does is another matter out of our hands
I'm at the cricket this week so it's not ideal, but I'll keep an eye on it
PS - Do bear in mind - this thread and I am NOT a trade finding service - I show you what I want you to see, when I decide to show it (there's some real clever stuff I'll never show) - I'm not finding you trades to trade, I'm showing you methods to which you have to employ some thinking around that you can then use to go hunt for like markets - the thread is for EDUCATIONAL purposes only
It is POSSIBLY setting up - at present it isn't a buy
Here's the analysis:
Monthly 2RSI is OS - in the coming few months there should be some sort of bounce/rally - how much? We do not know, what we do know is if it happens, it will form first on the lower time-frames
Weekly
OK it's not straight-forward - we have 2 possible level from which this could bounce from - IDEALLY the lowest low would be perfect, but we cannot control the market so we simply have to wait and watch
There is also the possibility that this isn't forming a DB and price goes further lower
The Indicators for a bounce are in place though - doesn't mean a bounce will happen, it means they are in an ideal position to bounce, should that be the course of action
DAILY
Remember the qualifiers for trends? Higher highs, higher lows, 123's, price regaining the SMA's, SMA's cross overs etc - their not in place yet, you can drill down to 60/30 min etc to watch for them
The Indicators ARE in a position for a bounce though, so aggressive traders could trade long at this point - That does not mean the Indicators are right though, they could reverse then come back down before taking off - there's always risks
IF price were right at that SEPT'24 low price with the Indicators as they are, I'd be putting a trade on
A trade right now would require a too large stop for me - hence why I'm watching
If I decide to buy this, I'd be holding it for months
You will pick up shares in these positions with a 2RSI scan <25% on the WEEKLY time-frame, because at every viable DB out there, 2RSI will be <25% on a weekly TF when its setting up
The Initial target would be 700p
That is a potential 60% return on the price
If this works out then think about what price HAS to do - It will give you multiple trading opportunities as it moves upwards, then you can buy the dips, pullbacks, breakouts and also on lower time-frames etc etc - You have a solid plan of action IF (possibly WHEN) price does as you expect and if we are simply WRONG, then guess what? We don't risk our money on any trade
Also there is absolutely no guarantee that price will even get to 700p - So we are not guaranteed that return, price might do something crazy that forces an early sale or it might only get to 500p and quit - We have no idea of what price WILL do, what we know is that this is setting up to be a possible double bottom trade, IF it works then price should get up towards 700p ish, whether it does is another matter out of our hands
I'm at the cricket this week so it's not ideal, but I'll keep an eye on it
PS - Do bear in mind - this thread and I am NOT a trade finding service - I show you what I want you to see, when I decide to show it (there's some real clever stuff I'll never show) - I'm not finding you trades to trade, I'm showing you methods to which you have to employ some thinking around that you can then use to go hunt for like markets - the thread is for EDUCATIONAL purposes only
Last edited:
THT
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Well we've had an eventful weekend on the world stage
The WAR cycle I've previously mentioned ages ago = This has a pretty wide window, the exact date is Summer 2026, but this cycle can arrive a few years early or a few years late - hence the wide window - we're not trading this cycle, it is something we can predict and observe, we can trade the fall-out
This war cycle has ALWAYS had USA troops BOOTS on the GROUND - we've not had that, but as a minimum the support of Ukraine and supply of Israel weaponry was an acceptable minimum, with the direct USA bombing of Iran, this has upped things
We still do not have boots on the ground yet and it might not even happen with todays advanced warfare from the air - Don't become fixated on an outcome because in this cycle we don't need to be
The amazing thing is one of my books on my bookshelf predicted this back in 1993!
Right, if this thing really escalates this is what should happen on the markets:
IF the market complies with the OCT'2025 LOW, it should rally UPWARDS into the Spring of 2026 to where it will stall
IF the market is FALLING down into the Spring of 2026, then the Beast cycle has INVERTED and you might get a double bottom on the OCT'25 cycle low - It's very rare for the Beast cycle to Invert, so the odds are on the main expectation
REGADLESS of what happens, its the DATES we are concerned with, history shows us that this cycle is epic - it had a p£$% poor outing in 2013 but it still caused stalling
Here's the Internal cycle dates until 2027
Ignore the Nov 2026 olive cycle - that is the beast cycle and I misplaced it on the chart when building the chart, it should be in MARCH 2026 (3 early march and 1 cycle late March - 8/10/11th & 28th)
I built this cycle chart back in 2015, in preparation for the new cycle start of 2016, this is my template, its clearer to see without price action, at some point I will take a screen shot of the chart updated with prices - but you can easily compare the dates to market action if you wish
Remember the composite cycle index I have shown you in previous posts is BEARISH until 2028 so bear that in mind in the next few years (Bear can mean sideways too)
The WAR cycle I've previously mentioned ages ago = This has a pretty wide window, the exact date is Summer 2026, but this cycle can arrive a few years early or a few years late - hence the wide window - we're not trading this cycle, it is something we can predict and observe, we can trade the fall-out
This war cycle has ALWAYS had USA troops BOOTS on the GROUND - we've not had that, but as a minimum the support of Ukraine and supply of Israel weaponry was an acceptable minimum, with the direct USA bombing of Iran, this has upped things
We still do not have boots on the ground yet and it might not even happen with todays advanced warfare from the air - Don't become fixated on an outcome because in this cycle we don't need to be
The amazing thing is one of my books on my bookshelf predicted this back in 1993!
Right, if this thing really escalates this is what should happen on the markets:
- The SP500 will panic sell over days and weeks
- This should be fast and steep
- Then it will be fully recovered - remember markets climb steadily, so it won't be an instant recovery
- There'll be a flood of money to safe havens
- The one thing we can't say is WHEN in time this will occur - so you'll have to just keep abreast of price action - Wars are exceptionally bullish overall for markets for some insane reasoning
IF the market complies with the OCT'2025 LOW, it should rally UPWARDS into the Spring of 2026 to where it will stall
IF the market is FALLING down into the Spring of 2026, then the Beast cycle has INVERTED and you might get a double bottom on the OCT'25 cycle low - It's very rare for the Beast cycle to Invert, so the odds are on the main expectation
REGADLESS of what happens, its the DATES we are concerned with, history shows us that this cycle is epic - it had a p£$% poor outing in 2013 but it still caused stalling
Here's the Internal cycle dates until 2027
Ignore the Nov 2026 olive cycle - that is the beast cycle and I misplaced it on the chart when building the chart, it should be in MARCH 2026 (3 early march and 1 cycle late March - 8/10/11th & 28th)
I built this cycle chart back in 2015, in preparation for the new cycle start of 2016, this is my template, its clearer to see without price action, at some point I will take a screen shot of the chart updated with prices - but you can easily compare the dates to market action if you wish
Remember the composite cycle index I have shown you in previous posts is BEARISH until 2028 so bear that in mind in the next few years (Bear can mean sideways too)
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