THT's Methods that WIN

[THT]

646 TD cycle completesView attachment 341370

Will watch the date

 

[THT]

So we have a load of ways to "TIME" the market

Here's a simple basic one based off actual past swings of the market

The timing here, calculates all the prior swings of the markets and forecasts a "ZONE" for an expected high - obviously if the market is not playing out to the tune of past swings, it's not going to, but this is the fun of trading!

So we have a "ZONE" marked in the Indicator window - The grey part is the "overlap" of timing dates and that naturally becomes the "HOT" zone - again that is not to say it will happen and it could happen after the hot zone overlap

We're just using basic mathematics to analyse past swings of actual price action and find out when a TOP/HIGH should occur based on the movements of the past - projected from the vertical dashed market line swing low

So we are looking for the period in TIME that hopefully this market stalls - it could be a top or just a temporary pause - we are just trying to find the zone when this rally fails or pauses - This method is not accurate enough to be able to say "The rally is over" etc, we have to have other factors for that

Lets see if anything happens

PS - The swings were created simply by using a factor of ATR - I could of used price moves x% to form the swing too, but I just stuck with the software's default settings and its a WEEKLY chart of the SP500 Index

 

[THT]

DISCLOSURE: - I'm on the verge of buying into this, the market just needs to do a few more things beforehand though

One of my sadder moments in life is that I enjoy flicking through monthly time-frame charts

When you do, sometimes you uncover a few "gems" to add onto the old watchlist - This is one of them, as was Nat Gas and FRESNILLO

I've alluded to many many times that our entire universe and lives are controlled by cycles

Here's a pretty clear 4 year cycle (they're common) in play over the past few decades

There's a pretty clear price movement off these 4 year cycles that cannot be ignored

The other thing that can't be ignored is the 4th attempt on that trend line fell through it and came back to retest it - typically you'd expect further lows

But the 4 year cycle for me, has more weight - time will tell - notice in the last 2 previous blue cycle points, price action "arched" Its currently repeating that same arching pattern - which will be a double bottom type formation on the lower time-frames

So, there's a fork in the road - Obviously one way will prevail and the other not - We don't make money based on sitting on the fence

View attachment 341188

Here's the weekly time-frame

There's the double bottom - right in position - IF - things are playing out as I am thinking, then we'll see BULLISH action on this and the lower time-frame charts

We have the freedom and time to just sit and wait to see what happens - We'll be exceptionally unlucky if price suddenly spikes upwards, but I'm happy to take that risk in order for a safer play on this

The target would be £12-13+ / but IF the 4 year cycle is still going to play out, then it should grind much higher

View attachment 341189

Daily time-frame

IF price goes lower than the Sept 2024 low price, then I'll leave it on my watch list, but it will need to convince me the cycle is still in play - but this initial trade possibility double bottom is scrapped in my rules, I like price to be exact or higher low than the low of the 1st leg of a DB

View attachment 341190

IF I'm right on the DB and 4 year cycle - then price will move higher on the daily, then correct forming a higher swing high and a higher swing low, then it should push upwards making stair step HH's & HL's - 123 moves, moving averages will move to perfect order uptrend etc - See the first leg of the 4 year cycle uptrend from Sept 2024

If I'm wrong, then price will invalidate the Sept 2024 low price and I'll have to reassess the game plan

As a trader you could just buy this and place a stop under the Sept 2024 low or you can wait a few more days/weeks to see what price action does - there are nearly always retracements in trends that you can jump onto - the choice is yours

We're at a key decision point - this is what is going to happen:

• This is the LOW and price will rally off
• This Isn't the low and price will go lower or
• This is a temp level and price will bounce off it, then come down to retest it forming a triple bottom possibility or just blow right through it

Any way - the cycle has not played out in full yet - It should move higher, but you can never say for definite in this game, notice that at the END of the cycles there's nearly always a price collapse down into the 4 year cycle! You can short that!

I'll report back on this one in a few months or maybe a couple of years if it works

PS notes on the chart are from the expected low in 2024 - left them of there as they obviously still apply now

Well it worked!

UP 40% in just over 1 month - this is the power of WEEKLY DOUBLE BOTTOMS

It really does pay to look at the higher time-frames

 

[noidea2]

Well it worked!

UP 40% in just over 1 month - this is the power of WEEKLY DOUBLE BOTTOMS

View attachment 341819

It really does pay to look at the higher time-frames

That is awesome! Thanks for sharing!