Think house prices will rise now.. read this...

[Technically Fundamental]

This may be a stupid question but why are these banks being kept afloat? Surely if the weak or overleveraged banks are left to collapse then stronger businesses can pounce on the opportunity and the bad blood would be purged. Couldn't they regulate the acquisitions to ensure assets such as investor's pensions and mortgages were protected and the risk transferred to operations? Mark toxic sh1te to market and if the new owners work hard enough to add the value back, as according to their models then they'd make a killing and then some. The fact that they've absolutely killed it with derivs according to their quarterlies is a bit of a kick in the teeth imo when you consider they're issuing divs. there's no incentive to change anything.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

i wouldn't put it past the maniacs to go on an oil standard lol

We could call it "Standard Oil"

 

[Trader333]

why are these banks being kept afloat?

Because if not then there would be a run on all banks to remove cash which would cause the entire system to collapse and the entire economy with it.


Paul

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Did you just read the first part?

 

[poborsky]

i wouldn't put it past the maniacs to go on an oil standard lol

In many respects the world has been on the oil standard for many years. A large part of the current financial crisis is about oil or the lack of it.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Poborsky, did you not see the story about the whistleblower who said that they understate the reserves and new finds by around half?

 

[poborsky]

Poborsky, did you not see the story about the whistleblower who said that they understate the reserves and new finds by around half?

I saw a news clip last night with an economist saying that he expects oil prices to rise because the tar sands and oil shale are more expensive to get out of the ground and process than the crude from the middle east which is now not as readily available. The journalist doing the interview stated that there was more oil available from tar sands and oil shale than there was from Saudi Arabia and that tar sands would produce 135 billion barrels and the oil shale at least the same again and that this supply would last for thousands of years. So thats at least 270 billion barrels. Without going into time taken to production, cost, environmental issues, rising demand, etc. World consumption is around 30 billion barrels each year. Thats not quite enough to last the world for thousands of years. In fact if demand stays the same then my calculations make it 9 years.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I saw a news clip last night with an economist saying that he expects oil prices to rise because the tar sands and oil shale are more expensive to get out of the ground and process than the crude from the middle east which is now not as readily available. The journalist doing the interview stated that there was more oil available from tar sands and oil shale than there was from Saudi Arabia and that tar sands would produce 135 billion barrels and the oil shale at least the same again and that this supply would last for thousands of years. So thats at least 270 billion barrels. Without going into time taken to production, cost, environmental issues, rising demand, etc. World consumption is around 30 billion barrels each year. Thats not quite enough to last the world for thousands of years. In fact if demand stays the same then my calculations make it 9 years.

Yeh but is that trade demand or demand for use?

I personally think there is a lot more oil under the floor than they say there is. This all sounds like an attempt to prop up producers' share prices.

 

[poborsky]

I personally think there is a lot more oil under the floor than they say there is. This all sounds like an attempt to prop up producers' share prices.

Most of the giant oil fields in the middle east have been producing for fifty years or so. The last giant finds, Russia, North Sea, were made in the 1960´s. Its accepted that Russia and the North Sea are well past peak production. The OPEC nations have been declaring their oil reserves as unchanged since the 1970´s when Kuwait decided to double their known reserve figures overnight, soon to be followed by the other OPEC nations, so there is reason to believe that reserves are overstated.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I'd say thats because they would have been invaded if people knew exactly how much was there lol.
Their national defence and economies is a lot stronger now so maybe they feel more comfortable saying they have more than they said :-S

 

[Atilla]

I'd say thats because they would have been invaded if people knew exactly how much was there lol.
Their national defence and economies is a lot stronger now so maybe they feel more comfortable saying they have more than they said :-S

No need to invade. The US owns the lot...

 

[poborsky]

I'd say thats because they would have been invaded if people knew exactly how much was there lol.
Their national defence and economies is a lot stronger now so maybe they feel more comfortable saying they have more than they said :-S

The reason for overstating reserves is because they are linked to production quotas.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

So why would a producer manipulate for low oil prices?

 

[poborsky]

Overstating reserves is about having a larger quota in the OPEC supply agreement.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Makes sense

 

[poborsky]

Article on Kuwait oil reserves:

Oil Reserves Accounting: The Case Of Kuwait

 

[poborsky]

and Iran:

Peak Oil: why we must take it seriously - MoneyWeek

 

[N Rothschild]

there is no lack of oil in the world. just a case of being able to drill it.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Too deep?

 

[N Rothschild]

yup, well there has been to decent sized finds in the last weeks, one of brazil and one in the gulf of mexico. there is TONS of oil left to drill