Think house prices will rise now.. read this...

[Hoggums]

Agency MBS (Mortgages)? Better Read This! - The Market Ticker

 

[zambuck]

...Yes....Prices are now at par with the MA curve of prices of last 20 years.....good for bargains if available....

 

[Hoggums]

zambuck - I think you are very very wrong.... For starters we are not yet at the 20 yr MA and it is reasonable in a recession to expect an overshoot.

But these are not the principle arguments - I'm pretty sure the meltdown in the US will have a considerable effect over here.

 

[squall321]

...Yes....Prices are now at par with the MA curve of prices of last 20 years.....good for bargains if available....

if prices now are considered "bargain" then i'm leaving this rip off country

 

[Technically Fundamental]

If house prices don't drop in value ove rthe next two years I'll eat my hat. Also remeber to question these biased figures they put out. Are the based on a standard deviation of national selling prices or a sample? What kind of people use the bank that provides the data? What regions have been considered? are they talking about? What kind of properties are losing the highest % of value e.g. flats, semi, det, and price range? Sale price vs asking prices?


maybe they'll re-evauluate who is prime and who is sub-prime after this fiasco lol.

 

[anley]

I think you're all wrong cos -

"you can't lose when you buy property"

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Thats proven true in past for long term investments but I'd be interested to see long term projections or studies on how the housing market will react to an ageing population in a time when the average house prices are so far removed from the average salary.

 

[zambuck]

....Property is the ONLY thing that WILL PAY eventually.....Properties are not like Stocks and Shares that can be sold and bought as and when.....

It is always a long term investment and the equity that one builds up on it allows one to springboard to other things in life.....

Just study property market of last 50 years and you will see that the upturns and downturns are severe.....and it is always a cycle of 10 - 14 years.....

There are lots of properties that are available at bargain prices if you are a cash buyer....Banks will lend at a very good rates if you put down 50% in cash.....

See chart below.....prices are at par with the average trend curve....

House price news, information and discussion - HousePriceCrash.co.uk

Graphs > Nationwide average house prices adjusted for inflation - HousePriceCrash.co.uk

Home.co.uk: UK House Prices by Town and Postcode

An example of a village Crawley Down....See charts

Home.co.uk: Property Asking Price Report for Crawley Down - June 2007 to June 2009

 

[Hoggums]

I think you're all wrong cos -

"you can't lose when you buy property"

cos houses only ever go up innit.

 

[N Rothschild]

KD is ultra bearish on everything (to the point of paranoia)

luicky i agree with him lol

 

[N Rothschild]

....Property is the ONLY thing that WILL PAY eventually.....Properties are not like Stocks and Shares that can be sold and bought as and when.....

It is always a long term investment and the equity that one builds up on it allows one to springboard to other things in life.....

Just study property market of last 50 years and you will see that the upturns and downturns are severe.....and it is always a cycle of 10 - 14 years.....

There are lots of properties that are available at bargain prices if you are a cash buyer....Banks will lend at a very good rates if you put down 50% in cash.....

See chart below.....prices are at par with the average trend curve....

House price news, information and discussion - HousePriceCrash.co.uk

Graphs > Nationwide average house prices adjusted for inflation - HousePriceCrash.co.uk

maybe you should check a chart of japans house prices.

without the same level, if not more, of reckless lending and inflated money supply..house prices will not see there highs again. end of!

 

[zambuck]

....It is very wrong to compare Japan with UK or India with UK etc.....Scenarios are not same.....

Japan does not - or will not have immigration that UK and Europe will have....

India may have even more immigration in next 20 years as many may choose to retire there.....A simple 80 acre land value has gone into stratiosphere because there will be retirement homes built on that land.....

Goa is already attaracting people from Europe as a retirement venue.....

I am only talking about UK.....

 

[N Rothschild]

and how will people pay for these houses without stupid levels of cheap and wreckless credit?

 

[zambuck]

...See we are all falling under the influence of market pundits and predictors of evrything from sliced bread to toilet rolls.....the gloom and doom merchants...!!

I am NOT talking about average Jonses and their 2 houses....I am ONLY talking about property market in hands of an investor with bones...!!

....Did you EVER read anything that predicted the Credit Crunch that came along..?...If BOE and COE and US and UK and all Gurus were not able to see anything coming their way....what are you basing your predictions on...??

There are smart buyers of properties and buffons riding on 120% crest.....You must be able to differentiate between the two.....Smart guys are already making a killing on purchases of properties....and 120% buffons are wringing their balls....!!...

...Phillip Green bought his entire empire in the deepest of recession....!!

If people took reckless risks then it is their problem....Banks will have ther flash and blood....and it will be a good lesson to all those who thought that they can borrow any amount to purchase the universe....!!

....I am happy with the way things are and there has never been better time to purchase.....!!

 

[N Rothschild]

i never said there isnt a buck to be made..i said hosue prices will not see current highs for a long time..and if you think there has never been a better time to purchase i certainly hope you are right as imo you are going to loose alot of money. my fixed term mortgage will be up in jan 2010 and i will be selling it right away and stashing my 350k of equity under my matress!

and yes there is no better way to a mass a fortune than the depths of a recession..but this aint no normal recession..i will be keeping my money nicely tucked away and buying when things really hit rock bottom

my mother is a property investor (and no not the 2 btl property investor) and i think she is nuts and never tier of telling her to offload everything while she can

 

[zambuck]

Your original question....and I quote.....

and how will people pay for these houses without stupid levels of cheap and wreckless credit?

....People with intelligent investing in properties - 35/65 will be able to purchase the property stock being shed by people with invetment of 1/120 at a knockdown price...It is happening...........My grandfather's motto was 35% my risk and Rest Bank's....

If people had followed this method then there will not be a proprty bubble that we have seen now....

....I don't know how people with nothing will pay for the properties, but then how do you pay for a property with 0 pound in your pocket...?

I am not bothered to seek current highs in anything I purchase....But if I am able to purchase anything that is 70% less than current market then it is a good purchase....

You may tuck your money away etc....but how will you know the bottom of recession when great financial minds did not see this one coming....There is an old adage that it is like catching a falling knife...!

...Always listen to Mamma....!!...She is right...why should she offload if she is not desperate for money...!

 

[N Rothschild]

catching a falling knife? isnt that exactly what your doing? and your naive to think no one saw this coming.

me thinks you need a lesson in economics, you strike me as yet another peoperty investor living in dream land. feel free to correct me if i am wrong though

 

[zambuck]

....With the property portfolio.....with most of them bought in 90's first one bought in 94....and if I am living in dream world....then OK I am living in dream world....I will keep on living..!!

....You stick to your beliefs...and I will stick to mine.,.!

Lessons....well better start a school of economics for 10 year olds..!

 

[anley]

cos houses only ever go up innit.

:cheesy:

 

[Technically Fundamental]

i said house prices will not see current highs for a long time

I agree. Not going to bother going into why but I want to see what kind of gains will been made after interest and inflation are adjusted for too.