Think house prices will rise now.. read this...

N Rothschild said:
nah your bird likes a bit of hair, makes her feel like she is with a real man for once
Click to expand...

Oh that is so lame. How so typically original of you... :LOL:

You obviously don't know her that well as she is more partial to rugby players then drama queens. I think you're likely to get a bitch slap from her but no doubt you'll enjoy it.

You know if you don't like being called Victoria you can always change your name back to Genitals again you cute little douche bag... ;)
 
Hoggums said:
Some more bear food for you...

Mortgage Defaults Shifting to Prime Borrowers: Report - Economy * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com
Click to expand...


In an effort to bring this thread back on topic again... :eek:

I read a similar blog to this several months ago so this is old news really. Moreover, if you read the news according to a report in the Wall Street Journal doesn't specify which report.

The quality reports always announce them selves to get attention.

Here is one I just dug up from Google check the date and report provider.

Prime Mortgage Delinquencies Spike: Report : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market

Now we all know where the market has gone since April the 3rd. (y)
 
Exponential growth needed to keep the current credit based financial system in working order has met up with finite resources. The only answer the politicians have is to keep the printing presses running and pretend that nothing is wrong. IMHO it is a good idea to use paper currency to purchase anything rather than keeping hold of it. When Bretton-Woods was abandoned there was only going to be one outcome. We are close to seeing it.
 
poborsky said:
Exponential growth needed to keep the current credit based financial system in working order has met up with finite resources. The only answer the politicians have is to keep the printing presses running and pretend that nothing is wrong. IMHO it is a good idea to use paper currency to purchase anything rather than keeping hold of it. When Bretton-Woods was abandoned there was only going to be one outcome. We are close to seeing it.
Click to expand...


Someone posted a link to "The Money Masters" a while back. Whether you regard that as extreme conspiracy theory or not, one of the interesting things that came out of it for me was their position that a paper money with no gold backing could be perfectly well-managed, and had been more than once in the history of the US, before the Fed came along with their "debt-based" currency. Another point that they made was that the seeming attractions of a gold-backed currency were illusory (pointing to the Great Depression, when the US was still on the Gold Standard). They suggest I think that it would be even worse now because most of the gold is in the hands of "the International Bankers". Unfortunately, phrases like the latter one do rather suggest that we are well off into conspiracy-nut territory, which is a pity because a rational debate about the fundamentals of our banking systems is long overdue.


Niall Ferguson's approach is much more acceptably mainstream, but still very refreshing; he's a fantastic communicator. I'm not sure though whether he is offering any solutions.

The approach advocated by "The Money Masters" may sound ok in theory, but I wonder how it would really stand up against the realities of the 21st century world. The Founding Fathers and Revolutionary leaders of the early USA did not have modern financial communications technology to worry about or the expectations of modern generations of consumers to appease.


On the housing recovery, I believe that one of the apparently successful aspects of Roosevelt's New Deal was offering fixed-rate long-term mortgages to home-owners. If one wanted to see a modest "recovery" in the housing market here, I'd think that's what our government should be trying to ensure (and blimey, they own enough banks by now to be doing it). Not that I personally am sure if I want to see any kind of "recovery" in the housing market. (I want to see a more sensible relationship between housing costs and average income).
 
Last edited:
In "The Money Masters" didnt they also blame the federal reserve and its policies for creating and sustaining the depression?
Whether a gold standard would work now I do not know, but it did help prevent the irresponsibility of politicians.
The US govt have already tried to generate a housing recovery with 8K for a deposit to new buyers and govt backed insurance on the mortgage. So in effect it has been possible to buy a house with no deposit down. Was this not a major cause of the problems that we have now?
If you want to see a sustainable housing recovery in the UK then possibly the way to go about it is to go back to sensible lending policies where a decent deposit is needed to qualify for a loan. This may also see a sustainable banking sector replace the bankrupt one that the public will be paying for in the years ahead. However any reasonable debate about the banking system is not going to happen in this climate. Trillions thrown at the system to try and keep it just functioning is going to be justified by the politicians whether it is working or not. We will only find out the truth now if/when it recovers/ collapses.
There is little doubt that the powers that be are going to avoid deflation at all cost. In other words they are going to inflate and the only way I have ever seen slow down inflation that works is to raise interests rates to somewhere near the rate of inflation, which in turn wipes out industry and causes another recession. Back to the old boom and bust. Problem is this time there is no boom. Just bust.
 
montmorencyt2w said:
Someone posted a link to "The Money Masters" a whie back. Whether you regard that as extreme conspiracy theory or not, one of the interesting things that came out of it for me was their position that a paper money with no gold backing could be perfectly well-managed, and had been more than once in the history of the US, before the Fed came along with their "debt-based" currency. Another point that they made was that the seeming attractions of a gold-backed currency were illusory (pointing to the Great Depression, when the US was still on the Gold Standard). They suggest I think that it would be even worse now because most of the gold is in the hands of "the International Bankers". Unfortunately, phrases like the latter one do rather suggest that we are well off into conspiracy-nut territory, which is a pity because a rational debate about the fundamentals of our banking systems is long overdue.


Niall Ferguson's approach is much more acceptably mainstream, but still very refreshing; he's a fantastic communicator. I'm not sure though whether he is offering any solutions.

The approach advocated by "The Money Masters" may sound ok in theory, but I wonder how it would really stand up against the realities of the 21st century world. The Founding Fathers and Revolutionary leaders of the early USA did not have modern financial communications technology to worry about or the expectations of modern generations of consumers to appease.


On the housing recovery, I believe that one of the apparently successful aspects of Roosevelt's New Deal was offering fixed-rate long-term mortgages to homeowners. If one wanted to see a modest "recovery" in the housing market here, I'd think that's what our government should be trying to ensure (and blimey, they own enough banks by now to be doing it). Not that I personally am sure if I want to see any kind of "recovery" in the housing market. (I want to see a more sensible relationship between housing costs and average income).
Click to expand...


Interesting points.

The move away from gold was precisely because of inability of gold to sustain expansive nature of US appetite for finance (to fight wars). Same goes for other countries & in particular politicians expansionary policies.

2. Current banking system and the reserve ratios have dropped from 28% back in the 70s & 80s to now 11-12%. Even some people say that's too restrictive and it should be 6-8%. I'm not too hot on the exact figures but the lower the reserve ratio requirement for the banks greater the multiplier effect for the banks to create money. To fudge the issue what type of financial assets are considered liquid reserve can also be debated but won't go there.

3. Further developments are referred to as the Big Bang for Banks and de-regulation of banking with many more financial products and services which is supposed to be wealth creating. I guess wealth creating for the bankers and fat cats but not the rest of population.

That's banking for you with easy credit and cheap money with an amazing multiplier for creating free money.



With respect to house prices to explain this you need to look at the factors of production.

Land, Labour and Capital (includes money & technology).

In the UK land is scarce and labour is expensive. However, capital (cost of money and technology is relatively plenty and cheap). Thus house prices have risen. If we ask the question do house prices justify their true cost based on the factors of production the answer has to be a big yes.

What has changed now...

Land has not increased in supply - no change there.
Labour supply has not changed by that much despite new builders in the country but wages pretty constant.
Capital - well cheap credit and further easing of the money supply can only mean inflationary pressures. More money chasing - on average same quantity of land and houses - which are non responsive to demand as it takes literally years to increase supply. Thus, prices go up and builders build more to meet demand.

Thus house prices will continue to rise. Supply is still there coupled with expansionary money supply which can only lead to further inflationary pressures.

In inflationary times you buy property, farms and gold. These products will maintain value. Anything else will be eroded by inflation.


Once again I sincerely believe inflation is a tool for eroding our collasal government debt and will become more so in the years to come. So house prices will double. No two ways about it.

Look back to the late 70s and look where we are now. A house my dad considered buying in Palmers Green in London was worth £14K. Now I doubt you could pick that same house up for £300K despite the recession.

Property will become a safe haven for cash... Watch this space... :!:
 
the problem with property investors is they dont seem to realise rising house prices is just inflation caused by all the credit created to buy them in the first place. nothing more, nothing less.

what did house prices rise by year on year? compare that to inflation figures year on year..

you make 5% on your property in a year, and the currencie devalues a few % at the same time, you havnt actually made **** all.
 
N Rothschild said:
they should look into a system like in denmark for mortgages.

Viewpoints (i think this is the right video)
Click to expand...

Very interesting - George Soros is always interesting. But the bit about Danish-style mortgages only comes at the end. I would have liked to hear a bit more.

However, I loved the following from him (which raised a laugh among his audience):

""The fact that you know markets are unpredictable doesn't mean that you can predict them".
George Soros

(I may rip that off for my .sig).
 
montmorencyt2w said:
Someone posted a link to "The Money Masters" a while back. Whether you regard that as extreme conspiracy theory or not, one of the interesting things that came out of it for me was their position that a paper money with no gold backing could be perfectly well-managed, and had been more than once in the history of the US, before the Fed came along with their "debt-based" currency. Another point that they made was that the seeming attractions of a gold-backed currency were illusory (pointing to the Great Depression, when the US was still on the Gold Standard). They suggest I think that it would be even worse now because most of the gold is in the hands of "the International Bankers". Unfortunately, phrases like the latter one do rather suggest that we are well off into conspiracy-nut territory, which is a pity because a rational debate about the fundamentals of our banking systems is long overdue.


Niall Ferguson's approach is much more acceptably mainstream, but still very refreshing; he's a fantastic communicator. I'm not sure though whether he is offering any solutions.

The approach advocated by "The Money Masters" may sound ok in theory, but I wonder how it would really stand up against the realities of the 21st century world. The Founding Fathers and Revolutionary leaders of the early USA did not have modern financial communications technology to worry about or the expectations of modern generations of consumers to appease.


On the housing recovery, I believe that one of the apparently successful aspects of Roosevelt's New Deal was offering fixed-rate long-term mortgages to home-owners. If one wanted to see a modest "recovery" in the housing market here, I'd think that's what our government should be trying to ensure (and blimey, they own enough banks by now to be doing it). Not that I personally am sure if I want to see any kind of "recovery" in the housing market. (I want to see a more sensible relationship between housing costs and average income).
Click to expand...


well what is a conspiracy theory anyway, anything that exposes the zionists.
well in that case how can you debate against the banking system as anything you say you would be labeled a conspiracy nut.

fiat money has always been dangerous, gold is real wealth and it should be used as money, instead of bank notes they should use receipts for gold and banks should start holding gold, were people can also go to the bank and deposit gold, get receipts for it and withdraw gold, thats how the system started but unfortunatly it was in the hands of scammers who would print fake receipts out and to leglize the system receipts were turned to bank notes and the fed was created and the biggest scam fractional reserve banking was introduced.
 
montmorencyt2w said:
Very interesting - George Soros is always interesting. But the bit about Danish-style mortgages only comes at the end. I would have liked to hear a bit more.

However, I loved the following from him (which raised a laugh among his audience):

""The fact that you know markets are unpredictable doesn't mean that you can predict them".
George Soros

(I may rip that off for my .sig).
Click to expand...

read The New Paradigm for Financial Markets there is a whole section on the danish system
 
WallStreetHero said:
well what is a conspiracy theory anyway, anything that exposes the zionists.
well in that case how can you debate against the banking system as anything you say you would be labeled a conspiracy nut.

fiat money has always been dangerous, gold is real wealth and it should be used as money, instead of bank notes they should use receipts for gold and banks should start holding gold, were people can also go to the bank and deposit gold, get receipts for it and withdraw gold, thats how the system started but unfortunatly it was in the hands of scammers who would print fake receipts out and to leglize the system receipts were turned to bank notes and the fed was created and the biggest scam fractional reserve banking was introduced.
Click to expand...

fractional reserve banking existed long before the fed.
 
.....Around 1800 AD Banks were fractional banks....But repeated bank failures and financial crisis and defaults lead to formation of Central Banks. These were Government led Institutions that regulate the commercial banks.....The formation of central banks sought to resolve the dangers associated with fractional reserve banking....

...So formation of Fed and other Central Banks would come much later.....
 
N Rothschild said:
the problem with property investors is they dont seem to realise rising house prices is just inflation caused by all the credit created to buy them in the first place. nothing more, nothing less.

I agree 100% and would pose the following questions...

1. With bank deposits around 0.5% and inflation at 1.8% one is losing 1.3%.
2. Stock market has dropped significantly and most peoples pensions suffering likewise.
3. Anybody on fixed income loses out to inflation.

What would you advise to protect againts inflation?

what did house prices rise by year on year? compare that to inflation figures year on year..

Here are some comparisons
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/05/chart-of-day-home-prices-versus.html

http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/united_states_1890-2008.png

By all accounts one is on par with inflation and in some cases ahead. However, considering if you didn't have your own home you would still be paying rent most studies /calculations show one has net benefit from having ones own home.



you make 5% on your property in a year, and the currencie devalues a few % at the same time, you havnt actually made **** all.
Click to expand...

On the last point you mention currencies. This would only come into play if you bought abroad. However, I have a friend who purchased two properties when working abroad on contract and he is well up on his investments as the Euro has appreciated in value against the Pound. So depending on how you invest point three can also work for you. He has let both properties and receives rent in Euros...

Another American colleague sold up in Muswell Hill in and went back home to buy a property four times the size for half the price coupled with net currency gains.

Similarly Brits who bought in Spain are likely to offset some fall in prices against Euro strength against the pound.


Now a European who bought in London at the height of the market - is well and truly out of pocket. But hey that's life - I'm sure they deserved it... :cheesy:
 
WallStreetHero said:
well what is a conspiracy theory anyway, anything that exposes the zionists.
well in that case how can you debate against the banking system as anything you say you would be labeled a conspiracy nut.

fiat money has always been dangerous, gold is real wealth and it should be used as money, instead of bank notes they should use receipts for gold and banks should start holding gold, were people can also go to the bank and deposit gold, get receipts for it and withdraw gold, thats how the system started but unfortunatly it was in the hands of scammers who would print fake receipts out and to leglize the system receipts were turned to bank notes and the fed was created and the biggest scam fractional reserve banking was introduced.
Click to expand...


Problem with gold is it is limited in supply, difficult to transport, store and break down. Gold can also be faked and doesn't lend well to international trade and transactions...

In fact gold silver or diamonds - instrinsicly anything that is scarce and commonly acceptable can be used as a medium of payment instead of bartering. None of these are acceptable for supporting international trade or local transactions.

I reckon governments and bankers simply have to be regulated by the rest of us. If countries don't buy government debt things will soon change.

For example oil price goes up when dollar falls. This causes tremendous strains on small countries with weak economies.

For these reason dollar standard and oil priced in dollars will be history soon enough. Unless ofcourse US sorts out its twin defecits...
 
Atilla said:
On the last point you mention currencies. This would only come into play if you bought abroad. However, I have a friend who purchased two properties when working abroad on contract and he is well up on his investments as the Euro has appreciated in value against the Pound. So depending on how you invest point three can also work for you. He has let both properties and receives rent in Euros...

Another American colleague sold up in Muswell Hill in and went back home to buy a property four times the size for half the price coupled with net currency gains.

Similarly Brits who bought in Spain are likely to offset some fall in prices against Euro strength against the pound.


Now a European who bought in London at the height of the market - is well and truly out of pocket. But hey that's life - I'm sure they deserved it... :cheesy:
Click to expand...

i meant the currency being devalued and having less purchasing power
 
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