The truth about FX trading..

[myLIVEaccount]

It's all about probability IMO.
I've experienced 1 losing setup in 2013 and none in 2014 so far. With avg +2% monthly growth, I can live with 6% max DD.

Since Jan 25th when I applied new risk measures, I have avg monthly growth vs DD ratio around 1:1.

But if you know about any investment product with better stats (avg growth vs maxDD), good for you. Maybe you could share with us

What performance? I asked ya how many setups do you have a month where you're willing to risk 6% on each to make 1-2% profit per month overall. I said even if it's just the one, you're on the road to ruin.

 

[Pat Riley]

I'll give it one more go then I'll admit defeat if I still don't get an answer

How many tradeable setups do you have on average each month?

 

[myLIVEaccount]

Ok, for a total number of trades, there's nothing easier then click on my myfxbook profile and see. In avg, 2-3 trades = one setup, so if there are 150 trades in 10 months, we are (in avg) talking about 5 setups a month. However, each setup has different number of trades, lot size, diff TPs, etc...That means the whole question is irrelevant and doesn't make sense. If you still don't get it, PM me, I'll be glad to explain you more
Milan

I'll give it one more go then I'll admit defeat if I still don't get an answer

How many tradeable setups do you have on average each month?

 

[wwatson1]

​

Ok, for a total number of trades, there's nothing easier then click on my myfxbook profile and see. In avg, 2-3 trades = one setup, so if there are 150 trades in 10 months, we are (in avg) talking about 5 setups a month. However, each setup has different number of trades, lot size, diff TPs, etc...That means the whole question is irrelevant and doesn't make sense. If you still don't get it, PM me, I'll be glad to explain you more
Milan

Your hedging then, am I right? Stop trying to be clever

 

[neil]

Hazard -snake oil spillage

​

Your hedging then, am I right? Stop trying to be clever

He sells trading systems ( See his VENDOR Badge) - if you could trade would you sell trading systems? So -yes, I think you are right; he is trying to evade the answer.
Not that you need an answer - you don't seem to be stupid enough to buy a system since the web is littered with free approaches to trading - the big challenge for any trader is inside his head.

 

[wwatson1]

His equity drawdown includes large spikes which return to a small gain, this shows it has an element of martingale and/or includes hedging

 

[myLIVEaccount]

Not sure how did you figure it out, but nope, I'm not. You can check the whole trading history and you won't find even one hedge.
Btw. not my kind of trading but just curious, what's wrong with hedging?

​

Your hedging then, am I right? Stop trying to be clever

 

[myLIVEaccount]

So once again, no hedging or martingale.
Max. drawdown since Jan 25 kept under -1.90% with avg monthly growth around +1.80%. http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/193440-truth-about-fx-trading-3.html#post2419812

His equity drawdown includes large spikes which return to a small gain, this shows it has an element of martingale and/or includes hedging

 

[myLIVEaccount]

if you could trade would you sell trading systems?

Hi Neil,
that's a good question. But why not? It can be an extra income with no extra work for me as long as I use trade copier and trading on my own or for 100x more followers doesn't make any difference. More money from subscribers means more money that can be used for my own trading. What's wrong with that?

I made +30% ROI in 2013 and I'm +22% ROI in 2014 YTD. I know I can make 1-2% stable every month with reasonable risk, but with deposit 10-20k USD, you won't become a millionaire from that in 2-3 years. So I appreciate I have few subscribers and I'm glad I can help.

 

[wwatson1]

Not sure how did you figure it out, but nope, I'm not. You can check the whole trading history and you won't find even one hedge.
Btw. not my kind of trading but just curious, what's wrong with hedging?

Nothing wrong with it and nothing wrong with martingale systems either, I use both thats why I thought I recignesed your techniques

 

[myLIVEaccount]

Sure, if it works for you then it's OK. I don't use martingale as long as it's not sustainable IMO and I don't see any way how to use it in long-term. No stoploss and adding into the losing positions with no pre-defined % RISK limits = margin call sooner or later.

Nothing wrong with it and nothing wrong with martingale systems either, I use both thats why I thought I recignesed your techniques

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Neil,
that's a good question. But why not? It can be an extra income with no extra work for me as long as I use trade copier and trading on my own or for 100x more followers doesn't make any difference. More money from subscribers means more money that can be used for my own trading. What's wrong with that?

I made +30% ROI in 2013 and I'm +22% ROI in 2014 YTD. I know I can make 1-2% stable every month with reasonable risk, but with deposit 10-20k USD, you won't become a millionaire from that in 2-3 years. So I appreciate I have few subscribers and I'm glad I can help.

Hi myLIVE account

First of all - congratulations for running live accounts and making consistent profits.............. - If that's what you can call them

If your account was say $5million or more - I would be saying OK consistent with good MM and also - and average commercial return - acceptable to the commercial world etc etc etc.....

But as you know - we are all in the retail world - ie 95% of retail traders run with accounts under $100k - maybe even under $70K - and not too many have half a million or more to play with

Therefore - our returns are just a different ball game to the commercial world - who look upon risk as their God and also understand that to place a 100 lot a pip trade is a bit different to placing a 1 lot trade .

Its chalk and cheese - ie different ballgame - like getting a group of F1 drivers to train London taxi drivers - or in this case - the opposite way round

Be only impressed with the commercial/institution world if you see say 40% per annum on 50 or 100 million pound account.

Only be impressed in the retail world if you see similar annual results - - month in month out with no compounding on retail size accounts from say $20 -100k.

Yes 25 -40 %+ per month - not per year - with as low or even lower drawdown's as you have with stake risk well under 1%.

If you say - no its not sustainable - sorry you are wrong

Its just that maybe 95% of FX retail traders have never been full time for over 5 years with a great intraday method then gives you great results with low risk.

I am sure you will find once you have done over say 2000 live trades - you will improve

Then once you have done over 5000 live trades - you will improve further

And then after say 5 years live intraday trading on say 3-5 pairs you will have over 10k live trades under your belt and a win ratio average of over 70% and positive RR's of between 1 and up to 10+.

OK - its hard works - but then making great monies demands hard work.

SO - what I am saying - realise even if you keep your results going for say 3 yrs and improve them to even 5% average ROI per month - they are really still rubbish on accounts under $100k

You might be happy etc - but please dont be blinked by the commercial world results - they are not representative of retail trading on capital accounts under $100k

All the best - and find a bit better method - please

Regards


F

 

[myLIVEaccount]

Thanks F, I mostly agree, you're right that managing 10k or 10mil account is a bit different "game".

You say you are only impressed with the commercial/institution if you see say 40% per annum on 50 or 100 million pound account...

Well, in 2013 average return of mutual funds was around +7.0%, only few of them got over +20%. (source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...il-stocks-for-fifth-year-with-7-4-return.html)

So I assume that yours 40% is far beyond REASONABLE expectation even for F1 drivers Don't even mention DRAWDOWNS as 99% funds have it much higher then returns. For example, Warren Buffet's BRK.A is around +15% YTD 2014, that's impressive IMO.
For me personally, for every year I outperform major indexes like S&P500 or DJ, I'm satisfied.

25 -40 %+ per month - not per year - with as low or even lower drawdown's as you have with stake risk well under 1%. If you say - no its not sustainable - sorry you are wrong.

40% a month with 6% DD? In last few years in forex business, I've learned to be very sceptical. Sorry, but until I won't see any 3rd party verified record, I hardly can believe in such stats

Good trades,
Milan

Hi myLIVE account

First of all - congratulations for running live accounts and making consistent profits.............. F

 

[Forexmospherian]

HI Milan

Well first of all top funds and banks use the best accountants in the world to make sure their true profits are hidden as well as possible.

Every trick in the book is used - so in the last 5 yrs its suited many to bring in as many costs and new developments and write off etc - against their cash cows

So - Really dont believe all you read or are shown

Heres the opposite view -

Losses haven’t kept revenue for brokers from rising. CLS Bank, the New York-based operator of the biggest currency- trading settlement system, said it handled a record $5.21 trillion a day in September. That was a 23 percent increase from the same month in 2010. Deutsche Bank, the world’s biggest currency trader, said Oct. 25 that it had record revenue from foreign-exchange trading in the third quarter.

The norm in the past on hedge funds etc on currency trading as been 3-7% per month ROI

With the regulators actaully discovering all the tricks that have been going on - a you might be aware some of the largest players have had to place on one side between half a billion to 2 billion top pay off their fines

They have known this would happen for years and therefore they have used provisions etc to reduce their net profits of this side of the buisness

Check out the billions they have been making off HFT etc - thats if you can find out where it's hidden

Banks and the commercial Financial world should be treated like crooks - they cheat - deceive and talk with fork tongues.

You are therefore comparing your results with deliberately fiddled very low results with the recession and the world economy used as the reason.

I am pleased that you do see commercial trading as a different ballgame to the retail world. That is important and if you want to see some live trading results - audited by a large Top 5 world accountancy firm - showing between 1000 and 3000% gains in under 2 months - then they are about from 2012 under the Iron Fx winners contest results.

Ignore the demo ones - go for the live ones - and the actual winner of the contest received a $100k prize.

Ok she was not keeping to low stake size and drawdowns etc - but if she had - she would have still had made a few hundred % in under a month - on a live account

Basically win accuracy as to be over 75% - that's possible on thousand of intraday trades with 5 pip stops - showing the accuracy required to read PA at the coalface - in the noise.

Maybe less than 3% of all retail traders can presently achieve these results and as you know maybe 75 -85% will never end up making continual profits month after month - but never dismiss they cannot be made - and its not down to just luck - its all down to skill and having the correct "edges"

Its good that you are sceptical - but your mistrust should be more with the actual industry than with what can actually be achieved

All the best

Regards

F

 

[myLIVEaccount]

Interesting indeed, but do you know what balance do they need for these brokers' contests? Do they limit the number of accounts per individual?
I can imagine to open 10 live accounts with $100 balance and experiment a lot with them to get super % return in short time...
You can do crazy things on one account, hedge on another, your total result will be +- at BE but you might get some prize money at the end...
Btw. is there any track record of her trading available?
My scepticism again

HI Milan

Ok she was not keeping to low stake size and drawdowns etc - but if she had - she would have still had made a few hundred % in under a month - on a live account

F

 

[wwatson1]

Sure, if it works for you then it's OK. I don't use martingale as long as it's not sustainable IMO and I don't see any way how to use it in long-term. No stoploss and adding into the losing positions with no pre-defined % RISK limits = margin call sooner or later.

who says you have to keep on adding to position? You can scale it down just as easily as you build it up you know

 

[montmorencyt2w]

:-0


so how do people make a living off this?

Say you need to make $5000 a month to subsist

at a very optimistic 2% ROI per month, you'd need a $250,000 deposit? :\
Which you then leverage up?

You might be interested in this series of videos:

Professional Traders Vs Retail Traders 101

Professional Traders Vs Retail Traders 102


The take home message (in the context of your question), is that (if you want to trade like a professional trader), you aren't trading for income, but trading for growth, i.e. you plough the trading profits directly back into your trading account.

This means that you have another source of income other than your trading profits. For a pro trader this is a basic salary. For a private trader (who wants to trade like a professional), it means you must have another income stream.

 

[wwatson1]

I've watched this guy, he's a total idiot, tells you nothing of substance, you will gather absolutely no insight from him

 

[gerryg]

Hi Neil,
that's a good question. But why not? It can be an extra income with no extra work for me as long as I use trade copier and trading on my own or for 100x more followers doesn't make any difference. More money from subscribers means more money that can be used for my own trading. What's wrong with that?

The wrong thing is in assumption that the more traders employ one certain system, the faster it'll get exhausted and lost it's profitable feature. This "law of distribution" closely correlates with supply and demand concept where the balance should be always maintained.

Remember I was using some custom made S&R indicator with MercerFx, ordered on freelancer with my special requirements. It worked very good, especially with stout broker spreads, there was a thought that I managed to turn my trading into passive mode. However after sharing it with some fellows from the FF forum, after 3-4 month it just started to draw down my trading. I suppose, it was the aftermath of making my earning tool public.. What do you think?

 

[FxRock]

You might be interested in this series of videos:

Professional Traders Vs Retail Traders 101

Professional Traders Vs Retail Traders 102


The take home message (in the context of your question), is that (if you want to trade like a professional trader), you aren't trading for income, but trading for growth, i.e. you plough the trading profits directly back into your trading account.

This means that you have another source of income other than your trading profits. For a pro trader this is a basic salary. For a private trader (who wants to trade like a professional), it means you must have another income stream.

Hello montmorencyt2w,

I am new here and just get your post. just superb