Swingin' the ftse 2010

[Mr Flibble]

Yes its in a nice channel ideal for me boring for the chaps playing it long. Price is now sitting just above resistance based on that channel. Its pretty much make or break now if we go down again then I'll make some more money. Wall, are you talking about the MA crossover? Would this be the signal for the longs here to think about reversing their positions?

 

[wallstreet1928]

Yes its in a nice channel ideal for me boring for the chaps playing it long. Price is now sitting just above resistance based on that channel. Its pretty much make or break now if we go down again then I'll make some more money. Wall, are you talking about the MA crossover? Would this be the signal for the longs here to think about reversing their positions?

Mr Flibble please learn the popular M-A pattern here my friend

http://www.stockmarketcats.com/f7/trade-lesson-knowing-when-m-bearish-27301.html

 

[Mr Flibble]

OK thanks had a quick read. I think we have to be careful about having a pattern in mind and then going through the time frames to make it materialise. I don't trade on these patterns just divergence and candles and sometimes within a range. Although I'm always open to new ideas so thank you for the link and I certainly took it on board.

 

[tomorton]

Good grief, not many posts here lately - but that's a problem of 3-day correction swing trading - not many 3-day corerrections.

I am interested lately in hikkake patterns and FTSE has just made hikkake set-up, with inside day 07/04 in uptrend followed by down day 08/04: I therefore have buy order at high of 07/04. I triggered, stop will be low of 07/04.

 

[tomorton]

High of ID 07/04 not breached yet and long order not triggered. But hikkake pattern has two more sessions to remain valid and strong Friday sessions in London and NY look positive. Has already triggered on Dow.

 

[Mr. G]

High of ID 07/04 not breached yet and long order not triggered. But hikkake pattern has two more sessions to remain valid and strong Friday sessions in London and NY look positive. Has already triggered on Dow.

Tom, assuming you are in this trade (triggered on Monday?), are you still in? Where would you have a stop (under the low of the ID?) and what would your target be?

 

[tomorton]

Was long on both Dow and FTSE: both stopped out this pm - Dow well ahead on points, FTSE at break-even. Had moved both stops to well above orthodox stop-loss levels to protect profits, successfully this time.

You could argue positions on both are simply duplicating same signal - I agree. But it does allow use of more / less aggressive stop positioning. A defensive stop on a hikkake long entry would be the low of the ID: a more risk-tolerant stop would be the lowest low of the down day(s) following the ID that make the hikkake signal. As the Dow hikkake triggered first and went higher relatively than the FTSE I could use a more aggressive stop and raise my Dow stop to well above entry, with FTSE at entry. The more compuind signals like hikkake I look at, the more the game seems to be an art rather than a science.

 

[tomorton]

Forgot to mention targets - orthodox hikkake target is simply the range of the ID. This will be achieved 80% of the time. But this can never be considered adequate and it is well worth trying for more, especially when trading with an established trend like the current Dow and FTSE.

 

[Mr. G]

Thanks Tom.
I've been reading back over posts from last year's 2009 thread and a question occurs to me - do you use your 14EMA system for continuation signals or for reversals? Seems the latter would be much more successful than the former.

 

[tomorton]

Thanks Tom.
I've been reading back over posts from last year's 2009 thread and a question occurs to me - do you use your 14EMA system for continuation signals or for reversals? Seems the latter would be much more successful than the former.

Not using it at all at present while I thoroughly live with the hikkake pattern. Also risk is a little high for my temperament. But I will come back to it.

Quite disappointed with limited gains of this week's longs - but I suppose options ex is always going to re-shuffle the deck and nobody saw the Goldman Sachs case coming.

 

[Splitlink]

Ay! Woe is me! At 1340 I closed out of a FT short with 6 points profit because I didn't want to leave the trade on while I was at work.

When I came home I shorted Nasdaq and left it on for the weekend. I'm hoping that this volcano will do me some good, if it doesn't do any for air travellers.

 

[Mr. G]

Not using it at all at present while I thoroughly live with the hikkake pattern. Also risk is a little high for my temperament. But I will come back to it.QUOTE]

Tom - do you have a good ink you can post? I read an article on Hikake over the weekend and it seemed contradictory to me.....

 

[barjon]

Well, I've been volcanic ashed today so all packed up and nowhere to go - ah well.

Idling my time, I keep coming back to heikin ashi so I thought I put it up for interest.

Looks as though you could use a single+ pullback (with a close above high as entry trigger) quite successfully and with less false starts than the usual 3+ bar swinging.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Not using it at all at present while I thoroughly live with the hikkake pattern. Also risk is a little high for my temperament. But I will come back to it.QUOTE]

Tom - do you have a good ink you can post? I read an article on Hikake over the weekend and it seemed contradictory to me.....

See stuff by Dan Chesler, such as -
http://www.chesler.us/resources/articles/chesler0404.pdf
He has published most of the writing on the pattern though there isn't much. My own manual backtesting suggests its easily reliable enough to be the basis for a system. As ever, management of the position to optimise it by pushing stops and targets around is always going to be a fascinating / frustrating game.

 

[Mr. G]

An interesting dilemma....A long above today's high as an agressive 2 day swing trade or a ahort as we've had two closes under the 41 EMA....hmmm......Might sit this one out.

 

[tomorton]

Yes, me confused too and staying in cash. But uptrend still secure and waiting for chance to re-enter long.

 

[tomorton]

Whereas Dow makes nice pin bar for re-entry back into uptrend.

 

[tomorton]

Still don't see a text-book entry signal from the FTSE but looking at the S&P this is no market to be short in at this time so I am long on the Dow.

 

[Mr. G]

So, how things change in a few days since Tom's post above....or do they?

Anyone fancy today as a swing low?

 

[tomorton]

Every time I get in a nice long position something awful happens - first Goldman Sachs fraud case, now Greece's money troubles. Glad to get out of both still in the money. Waiting for US direction before re-entry, long or short.