swingin' the ftse: 2008

[barjon]

I'm having a high old time here, I'll tell you!

Jon, you're a gem! I'll assume anything you tell me from now on!

At around 10am this morning I was on the third hole with a wedge to the green when a voice suddenly boomed in my ear "Split's just gone short again!". Raced for my mobile to join in, but "no mobiles on the course" so that was that. But, I knew what to expect when I got home - hope you got the full whack.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

What a nightmare! I am short on up days and long on down days. I shall have to be more selective with my swing signals as I don't think I can get a pay rise at this stage.

 

[trigger]

What a nightmare! I am short on up days and long on down days. I shall have to be more selective with my swing signals as I don't think I can get a pay rise at this stage.

Im in same boat, long on june calls since last week and waiting for a decent bounce

 

[Splitlink]

I'm sorry, guys. I had a fantastic morning but I did say that I was a shorter! I wish I could have convinced you.

I got nervous and closed at 6018, from 6063. That's the FTDaily Future. I used that with the intention of letting it run in the afternoon and getting stopped at the close, instead of getting rolled over to Monday. I got nervous that I might lose my profits over lunch, though, and so missed the afternoon. If it had not reversed so much , I would have shorted, again, before leaving for work. Such is life. But I knew that you guys had ideas of a rally and decided to take what I had.

Don, I'm sorry if I put you off your stroke. I didn't know that my powers of telepathy were so good.

 

[tomorton]

I am confident I can improve by P/L if I just stick to the general rule, Trade With The Trend. I see the current swing trend as down, since we breached the 13/05 swing low 6142 on 23/05. I am now going to be patient and await a 3-day retracement that forms a swing high no higher than the previous 19/05 swing high 6377, when I shall go short. If I start to talk about doing anything else between now and then, just shoot me please.

 

[barjon]

I am confident I can improve by P/L if I just stick to the general rule, Trade With The Trend. I see the current swing trend as down, since we breached the 13/05 swing low 6142 on 23/05. I am now going to be patient and await a 3-day retracement that forms a swing high no higher than the previous 19/05 swing high 6377, when I shall go short. If I start to talk about doing anything else between now and then, just shoot me please.

tom

Yes, but as I said to split it's been six weeks since the last eod signal (although aggressive swingers will have taken a short signal on the second break of the last swing low @ around 5950 on Friday). If this down trend is serious we shouldn't have to wait that long, although it might test your patience a bit.

In the meantime you could always draw up some intraday rules to play with for small stakes which would keep you busy without the prospect of damaging your account unduly.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Yes Jon - my 13/05 swing low was not a full swing low really. I will keep an eye out for intra-day or overnight positions, using Street Smarts by Rashcke and Connors - but, yes, minimum stakes. Have a good weekend.

 

[ash107]

Hi tomorton, I'm a newbie and sorry if you've mentioned this before, but what strategies from Street Smarts do you use to monitor overnight positions? Are you talking about the gap strategies? This must seem like a very basic question, but I just had to ask because I'm really impressed by that book, and am looking to backtest (well, sort of at least) three of their strategies. Oh, and I'm hoping to trade the FTSE too! Cheers

 

[trigger]

I see this touching 21/01 level, possibly 17/03 before too long.

 

[tomorton]

Hi ash107 - its an impressive book. I check the FTSE100 and S&P daily for 80-20's, Turtle Soup (though I find this is often hard to manage once opened), Holy Grail (rare, 14ADX not often above 30), Whiplash and 3-Day Unfilled Gap Reversal. The other patterns in the book I am not so impressed with or can't really manage. Actually I always give Rivalland swing signals priority and it is rare that a good Street Smarts signal turns up that is not also a swing trade. I am also desperately trying to ignore even just 24-hour trades that are against the trend. I also look out for Key reversals, but this is not one of theirs, I stole it from some TA journal I think.

 

[tomorton]

S&P has pronounced a swing low and with Friday's strong finish looks like it will run up to a swing high. I expect it to take the FTSE with it but we see a top within a week. I am flat until then but hope to take a short when we turn over. Not being so aggressive these days, jumping the gun too many times hurts after a while.

But does anyone see evidence for this as a bottom, introducing a change of trend to up?

 

[trigger]

Hi tom
In my humble opinion i see a bounce this week to the upside with little to hold it back though as you said it may top out by friday with contracts expiring and a strong pullback the following monday 23/06, but then as you have mentioned in an earlier post may re-try 6377 before correcting

 

[Splitlink]

S&P has pronounced a swing low and with Friday's strong finish looks like it will run up to a swing high. I expect it to take the FTSE with it but we see a top within a week. I am flat until then but hope to take a short when we turn over. Not being so aggressive these days, jumping the gun too many times hurts after a while.

But does anyone see evidence for this as a bottom, introducing a change of trend to up?

It's a longish down trend, isn't it? I have to assume that this is another potential pullback. I'm shorting where I think that I have high point for the day.

Jon has got me on a roll !

The trend must end, sooner or later, but I've given up on trying to spot the turn.

 

[trigger]

As we have bounced sharply from 6th feb level 5720 on thurs and friday, monday as i see it is 50/50 to drop again to form a double bottom then strong up from there, or it will fly from the outset confirming a change of trend up to 6377.... vague but its how i see it

 

[atrim]

Banks

I bought this Friday morning. Banking sector Sep contract. Might just be a bounce or could be a bottom. Either way I saw some good price action on daily chart and have included the 2D here because there is a pretty pin bar. Bad news: the spread is 40 points!

 

[tomorton]

hi atrim - the banks have made a good bounce, coming back from an all-time low RSI and confirming a swing low ahead of the FTSE100 itself. Its an aggressive position, and you have to recognise it could not be more against the trend. That said, with a firm stop and sensible money management it could pay well. Good luck, but just don't plan to be away on holiday next week while you're long.

 

[atrim]

I sold my bank position Monday morning. Now the banks are on the up again and the ftse is going up strongly. Is this CPI data pushing it up?

 

[Splitlink]

I made money shorting LLOY yesterday, only to short them again today! I'm wondering whether this is a pullback area, here, or a breakout. In any case, am short a small amount on the index.

Well, I was. Just got stopped. No more now until I see the EOD.

 

[atrim]

I shorted the Bank sector just after my last post and so far I'm Red.

 

[atrim]

Ended day in profit 40 points plus spread. Position still open so hoping for a big gap down tomorrow morning.