stock markets are due for a major correction any given day

[jamesj188]

We just hit the all time high on the S&P. I think we are due for major correction any day now.
Economic data and growth is not supportive of these prices!

 

[piggybridges]

God knows.
I learnt my lesson on trying to short it a long time ago! It just goes up over time. Completely manipulated

 

[malaguti]

What are your thoughts on this stock market rally. When is this significant correction coming??? We just hit the all time high on the S&P. Any thoughts anyone?
I think this week or next can actually be it, depending on the earnings.

April 26th

 

[jamesj188]

God knows.
I learnt my lesson on trying to short it a long time ago! It just goes up over time. Completely manipulated

I so agree with you!
I bout some vixx the other day, just before the horrific unemployment number,all signs were pointing to a major decline, and it has just crushed me! Took some big losses!

 

[jacknapier]

My theory is that the next bubble will be a student loan crisis. I've known people who've had $100k debts removed, people with $100k debt they have no means of paying off. Who owns all those loans anyway? But, I don't think that bubble will pop for quite some time.

There might be a short term shake out in the next month or so, but I wouldn't sweat it. Trees don't grow to the sky...

 

[Tradesight]

What do you guys think about these wacky sentiment numbers? In 20 years trading I've never seen anything like this. Very strange.

Stock Trading: AAII Sentiment Survey Oddly Reports Climatic Bullish Reading - YouTube

 

[jamesj188]

My theory is that the next bubble will be a student loan crisis. I've known people who've had $100k debts removed, people with $100k debt they have no means of paying off. Who owns all those loans anyway? But, I don't think that bubble will pop for quite some time.

There might be a short term shake out in the next month or so, but I wouldn't sweat it. Trees don't grow to the sky...

what would happen if all the debt in the world would one day just be
cleared by all the governments? some debt is scheduled to be repayed in 20+ years? How does it make sense given debt is increasing every day?

 

[Tradesight]

I think this is pretty much on topic. I was shocked when I saw the results of the most recent weekly AAII investor sentiment poll. Very strange,extreme divergence at a new market high. Draw your own conclusion.

Stock Trading: AAII Sentiment Survey Oddly Reports Climatic Bullish Reading - YouTube

 

[jacknapier]

what would happen if all the debt in the world would one day just be
cleared by all the governments? some debt is scheduled to be repayed in 20+ years? How does it make sense given debt is increasing every day?

That's impossible. They would have to abolish our monetary system for that to happen. So far as I understand it, anyway.

 

[jamesj188]

That's impossible. They would have to abolish our monetary system for that to happen. So far as I understand it, anyway.

but I have no idea how all the debt in the world is ever gona be paid off?????
I think this is the biggest potential cause for the next and probably the biggest future financial crisis...

 

[Firey6]

My theory is that the next bubble will be a student loan crisis.

Or in other words you watched that CNBC documentary about that 2weeks ago...

 

[jacknapier]

Or in other words you watched that CNBC documentary about that 2weeks ago...

Well, I rarely watch CNBC. Though, I don't claim the idea as my own and I'm certain that CNBC wasn't the first to notice it either.

I have no idea how all the debt in the world is ever gona be paid off?????
I think this is the biggest potential cause for the next and probably the biggest future financial crisis...

That's the beauty or ugliness of fiat currency. Is that, you can't pay it off. Imagine trying to pay off your credit card debt with another credit card? That's essentially what we're doing. One day, we'll wake up in the United States of Zimbabwe. IMO, of course...

 

[Pferd]

I don't see the market coming down (significantly) any time soon. While the FED and now the BOJ keep pumping billions of dollars into the financial system every month, there is no reason for a downturn. These billions of dollars have to go somewhere, and the easiest place is the stock market.

In fact, I think we are heading to a very interesting situation: The stock markets will be at incredible high levels while the real economy is in recession or depression depending of the country.

This is difficult to explain, but in my point of view the stock markets these days are just discounting a very inflationary scenario in the short-mid term. We could well have an S&P in 1600+ which will be equivalent to 1200 pts of few years ago. Keep that in mind when we speak about "new highs".

In my point of view the markets will only come sharply down in the event of a major geo-political event, a terrorist attack or a natural disaster. For a downturn due to economic reasons the forces will really need to be very strong. The market now is a Ponzi scheme, but the problem is that the same persons responsible for the Ponzi are the ones in charge of printing money, so this is a circle very difficult to break.

Let's see what happens!

 

[jacknapier]

We could well have an S&P in 1600+ which will be equivalent to 1200 pts of few years ago. Keep that in mind when we speak about "new highs".

You're saying there's been 25% inflation since 2011?

 

[Pferd]

You're saying there's been 25% inflation since 2011?

please read in full:

in my point of view the stock markets these days are just discounting a very inflationary scenario in the short-mid term.

Thanks.

 

[jamesj188]

Hey Pferd,

I think you are right on point.

 

[wackypete2]

This was my view at the beginning of the year. Maybe this week is it?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tec...et-crash-q1-3-analyzing-aapl.html#post2045188

I mostly agree with where you are going with all that, but I see it in a much simpler light...The current rise in equities markets has been with decreasing volume. There's only one way that will end and it's down hard with enormous volume. Time frame is hard to predict but you offer a fairly wide Q1 to Q3. I'd say Q2-Q3.

Have a happy and prosperous New Year!

Peter

 

[jacknapier]

please read in full.

I did read in full. That just seems to me what you're saying. That if 1200 is 1600 then there must have been 25% inflation, discounting any economic growth. Have we had economic growth? That depends on who you ask. IMO, the economic growth depends on your starting point. If you measure from the beginning of 2009, I'd say yes, but on a longer time line, I'd say we have not. But that's only my opinion.

I think a lot of the top money controllers are too fearful of another 2008 to happen, so they are still sitting on a hoard of cash. I really don't think another 2008 will happen anytime soon. The Lehman bk preceded the overall collapse. What major investment firm is poised to go bankrupt? And why would it? I don't have an answer.