Since reaching a four-month low on June 1, the S&P 500 has climbed 11 percent amid bets on economic stimulus. The rally has pushed the gauge to a valuation level of 14.4 times reported earnings, which is still below the average since 1954 of 16.4, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.
Stocks rallied amid a slowdown in volume as vacationing traders awaited policy clues from the Federal Reserve’s summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. On Aug. 13, U.S. equity volume reached the lowest level since at least 2008 excluding holidays. About 4.5 billion shares changed hands on all venues that day, the lowest level in data compiled by Bloomberg going back four years that excludes the days surrounding New Year’s, Christmas, Thanksgiving and Independence Day.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will have a chance to talk more about policy options at the Kansas City Fed’s conference Aug. 30 to Sept. 1. His speech at the 2010 conference set the stage for a second round of asset purchases. Faster job growth is needed to push down an unemployment rate that has been stuck above 8 percent since February 2009, according to Northern Trust Corp.’s James McDonald.
‘Fragile Recovery’
“The recovery is fragile,” said McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust in Chicago, whose firm manages $704.3 billion. “As we look at what the Fed is going to do, I would say that they will still lean toward some further accommodation. If we get better data between now and the September meeting, they might pull back.”
The Fed next month will hold off from a third round of bond buying, known as quantitative easing, amid better economic figures, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report.
So-called cyclical companies, which generate profits that are more sensitive to changes in the economy, had the biggest gains in the S&P 500 among 10 industries. Technology and clothing retailers climbed at least 1.8 percent. Utility, health-care and phone companies in the S&P 500 declined.
Technology shares, which comprise 20 percent of the S&P 500, have rallied for five straight weeks in the longest run since April.
