S&P 500 Pivot Dates

[hwsteele]

My favorite market is the S&P500. As suck I like to try and forecast the markets pivot dates. If anyone would like to give their two cents also you are more than welcome. Some times I get it right and some times I get it wrong and I don't catch all the pivots but I still like to give it a shot.:cheesy:

 

[hwsteele]

Some dates forecast for this month:
9-16 Support/Resistance
9-22 1168.....1198.....1215
9-24 1255.....1305.....1362
9-29

Have a nice day!

 

[hwsteele]

Today did turn up after price went down to 1169. That was almost a perfect hit on the 1268 S/R price level. Todays high was 1214 which once again was right on the next S/R up.

 

[hwsteele]

Today the market turned down again and went below the lowest S/R level I posted before so I calculated some more lower.
1215
1198
1168
1138
1121
1080

 

[hwsteele]

Today the market reversed again but not before going down and touching the 1138 pivot number.
After that it advanced to the 1168 pivot number and reacted from that 12 or 13 points before it went higher again. Right through 1198 and stopped at the 1215 pivot.
Tomorrow if the market corrects it should only do so to the 1198 area. After that i hope it makes a run for the 1255 pivot.
If the market does go up on friday and not quite make it to the 1255 number I would expect it to do so on monday before it turns down for the day. If it does hit 1255 tomorrow then monday would most likely be down most of the day.

 

[hwsteele]

Today with in the first twenty minutes the market hit the 1255 pivot area and then a little. It then retraced back to 1235 or the half way point between the 1215 and 1255 pivots and then made it back up a little past the 1255 area again. After lunch it pulled back once again to the 1235 area before heading back up to close at just a tad under 1255.
9-22-08 Shows to be a pivot day so I expect the market to trade lower on Monday. My guess right now is Monday will be down to about the 1215 area again.
The important price numbers for Monday are:
1243.50
1233.00
1223.00
and 1215.00
If the market does go up at all I don't think it will get past 1264.50.

 

[hwsteele]

Ok here are some more pivot dates:
9-22
9-24
9-25
9-26
9-29
Hope every one had a GREAT weekend!

 

[hwsteele]

Today the market went down like I thought it would. It made it just a little past the 1215 pivot area.
I believe tomorrow will see the market swing higher but first it may go down to the 1198 area. it may make it all the way back up to the 1255 pivot area or past. A see a small chance that it will just keep going down and if it does we could see 1168. Mostly I believe the market will close higher tomorrow.
Important prices tomorrow are:
1198
1216
1225
1235
1246
1255
I will be on vacation the rest of the week so I may not update every day.
For the most part I see the price bouncing around for this week.

 

[hwsteele]

Vacation was GREAT! My older brother came out from California and we had a great time together.
As for last weeks market action:
Tuesday I was wrong about what direction the market would go but most of the price action did stay between the 1198 and 1215 price pivots.
Wednesday there was very little action as price stayed between 1180 and 1200. Wednesday was a pivot day like predicted.
Thursday the price went up to the 1215 pivot area and bounced around there all day. Thursday was also a pivot day like predicted.
Friday the price headed back down to about 1190 and bounced around 1190 to 1200 before it ended the day back up at 1215.
The net result of last weeks price action was down sharp on monday and then just bouncing around the rest of the week.

 

[hwsteele]

As for the week of September 29th - October 3rd, Monday through thursday show up as pivot days
(9-29,9-30,10-1,10-2) and friday does not so my guess is that price will go up allot on Monday if the $700million bailout gets passed. After that I think the market will bounce around a bit ending higher on Friday. That's if the bailout gets passed. If not im not sure what will happen.
The main pivot number for next week are:
1137
1152
1180
1211
1227
1273
1324
1347
The minor pivots for monday only are:
1181
1188
1197
1206
1215
1224
1234
1245
1255
Hope everyone had a great weekend.

 

[hwsteele]

What a wild ride today!
The S&P500 was down over 100 points to close at a little over 1106.
Tuesday does show up as a pivot day so if I had to guess I would say that most likely the market will open down then go down to about 1092 or so and then start back up maybe ending up some where around the 1137 pivot area. It my go as high as the 1152 pivot area though. If the market opens up then it would probably end down for the day. Possibly as far down as the 1047 pivot area.
minor pivot numbers for tuesday are:
1073
1081
1088
1097
1106
1115
1124
1134
1145
1155

 

[hwsteele]

Today started up and just kept going all day long. That's a good sign of strength for the market.
Wednesday does show to be a pivot day so I am looking for the market to end down for the day.
The market did close half way between the 1152 and 1180 main pivots today so we may see the market open higher tomorrow before it heads back down to 1137 or possibly the 1121 main pivot areas. If the market just goes up tomorrow then it will be down thursday and friday.
The minor pivots for tomorrow only are:
1105
1114
1123
1134
1144
1155
1165
1176
1188
1201

 

[hwsteele]

The market did retrace today to right above the 1137 main pivot and then traded back up to the 1160 area. Thursday does show to be a pivot day again so I do expect the market to go up tomorrow.
1180 is the number to look for. Possibly 1211.
Small chance it could go down tomorrow and retest 1137 or go as low as 1115 but I don't think that will happen.
Thursdays minor pivots are:
1110
1120
1129
1140
1151
1161
1172
1184
1196
1208

 

[hwsteele]

Well the market proved me wrong again. It took my "small chance" and went right down and closed at the 1115 main pivot area. This sets the stage for the bail out to bring the market back to 1180 or 1211 friday if it's passed. If not then look for some new lows. at or around main pivot numbers 1048 or even 1034. If the market just up and crashes we could even see 1000. Friday does not show up as a pivot day so I would guess that the market will just keep trading down. It is possible that the bail out does not get passed before the market closes tomorrow and the S&P500 just drifts down more. Monday does show to be a pivot day.

The minor pivot numbers for friday are:
1053
1058
1066
1074
1081
1088
1097
1106
1115
1124
1135
1155
1166
1178
1189
1201

 

[hwsteele]

Well even though the bail out passed other pressure in the market pushed it back down.
The day opened higher and went right up to the 1152 main pivot area before it turned around and headed back down to close right at the 1096 main pivot area. The high today was 1153.82 and the low was 1098.14.
So the end result was close to the "drifting down" I spoke about yesterday and turned out to be why no pivot showed up for the today.
Both Sunday and Monday show up as pivot days so I am expecting the market to trade high Monday. We may see a low put in no lower than 1050 first. I hope not as that would indicate a lack of strength in the market. I would like to see the market back at the 1152 area Monday or at least 1137.
I do believe the market will trade higher for about six weeks or so after the major low is put in and that may have happened today.

 

[hwsteele]

Next weeks main pivot numbers will be posted tomorrow

 

[xl-sander]

do you anticipate the market to go up again - that it would be even possible for the s&p 500 to rally north the next weeks?

because as far as i understand your posts you assume that yesterday's closing may be the bottom for now -

thx for sharing your thoughts - I am still new to all this and appreciate every support i can get a lot! axl

 

[hwsteele]

I do believe the market will be heading higher at least up to the elections in November. That was the whole reason the $700 billion bail out was rushed through, to prop the economy up in the short term to make it look good for the elections. The rally I believe is coming could last 'til the end of the year but at least until the election. Make no mistake we are in a bear market but I do believe we will see 1300 S&P again before it heads back down to 850 or so. If the market makes it up to 1400 in the short term then it would only go down to about 950 instead of 850.
All the above is simply my own guess as to what's going to happen.
For that matter we could crash going into the election and see 900 S&P by the end of the year.
Don't believe that will happen but it could.

 

[hwsteele]

The main pivot numbers for the week of 10-6 - 10-10 are:
977
1002
1035
1050
1096
1156
1182
1215
1230
1278

 

[hwsteele]

I will post Mondays minor pivot numbers tomorrow.