Thats the end of my prediction for this week. 
The failure to hold 1650 S&P and 15300 DOW has killed this, we could be down big by the end of the week, especially if 15k goes on the Dow, could be down as low as the mid 14700s DOW and probably testing the 1590 area S&P.
The failure to hold 1650 S&P and 15300 DOW has killed this, we could be down big by the end of the week, especially if 15k goes on the Dow, could be down as low as the mid 14700s DOW and probably testing the 1590 area S&P.
Atilla
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Thats the end of my prediction for this week.
The failure to hold 1650 S&P and 15300 DOW has killed this, we could be down big by the end of the week, especially if 15k goes on the Dow, could be down as low as the mid 14700s DOW and probably testing the 1590 area S&P.
I think this may be simply indegestion. Markets yet to digest the news.
Surprised, as to how tapering is not applied as yet despite signals. I don't understand if this is sound economics or just politics. Perhaps softening the market up. Wait till the market calls on the Fed to do the right thing. Who knows???
timsk
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Atilla
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Really sorry guys - totally forgot about posting up the start of week charts. Put it down to old age and partying too hard. Memory's gone to Timbuktu
Here is the forecasts for the start of penultimate week12 of QTR-2 competition - from most bullish to bearish. Looks like it may be a two horse race between Papa Pat and WackyPete.
I think somebody needs to pinch me as Timsk too is on route for his second gold on the podium.
We also have a new forecaster Ralph82
My apologies for belated posting and good luck to you all - especially Timsk, honest.
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Atilla
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Hmm not sure how that's come about??? Can only attribute it to my self. :whistling
Sorry Mike.
Updated the site but will keep Weighted Averages for now and adjust late tonight.
mike.
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Yes, that really would be a terrible shame!
Bloody unlucky there old boy, really thought you bagged it..
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Atilla
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Big congratulations goes to the three bears with Timsk taking gold this week, followed closely by Mike and VielGeld. Let's all give big round of paws for our three bears living on the edge of forecasts. :clap: :clap: :clap:
That Timsk bear in the middle with the snake eye looks awfully mean.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mike. . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Timsk . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .VielGeld
One more week to go for the decider and it really is between WackyPete and Pat for the title. ibetyou has a chance of drawing but it's a long shot.
Make sure you do your homework this week guys next week could be well interesting.
That Timsk bear in the middle with the snake eye looks awfully mean.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mike. . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Timsk . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .VielGeld
One more week to go for the decider and it really is between WackyPete and Pat for the title. ibetyou has a chance of drawing but it's a long shot.
Make sure you do your homework this week guys next week could be well interesting.
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Pat494
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NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - Equities markets stabilized in choppy trading on Friday, while Treasury yields hit their highest levels in almost two years in the wake of the Federal Reserve's plans to withdraw its economic stimulus.
Markets are adjusting to the Fed's plan laid out earlier in the week for the central bank to scale back its asset purchases later this year if the U.S. economy keeps improving as expected.
This has roiled markets around the world since Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined the timeline on Wednesday, with interest rates rising and equities markets selling off.
"It's all one big unwind. That's been a negative for Treasuries as hedges are unwound," said Sean Murphy, a Treasuries trader at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) in New York.
Easing fears about an immediate banking crisis in China helped make for a calmer tone, but short-term funding rates there remain elevated, especially for smaller lenders.
U.S. stocks were modestly higher by early afternoon following a two-day selloff and 10-year Treasuries yields rose above 2.50 percent, their highest level since August 2011. The dollar rose and was headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost a year.
MSCI (NYSE: MSCI - news) 's broad world stock index, which tracks shares in 45 countries, was off 0.2 percent, and Europe's broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 index ended down 1 percent.
The quarterly expiration and settlement of June U.S. equity options and futures contracts later on Friday is seen likely to contribute to volatility for the session.
About $14 billion is expected to change hands in index rebalancing-related trading toward the session's close, according to Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS - news) , which could further add to volatility.
The Dow Jones industrial average added 21.95 points, or 0.15 percent, at 14,780.27. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 2.70 points, or 0.17 percent, at 1,590.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 13.17 points, or 0.39 percent, at 3,351.45.
The recovery in stocks coincided with a Wall Street Journal article suggesting markets were "misreading" the Fed.
"The market read what it wanted to read but although there was a reaction in stocks, the yields aren't moving," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.
"It just shows that the equity market is nervous and would react to any headline at this point."
The Fed is currently buying $85 billion a month in bonds, part of its huge stimulus effort that has driven many investors to embrace riskier assets and has sent U.S. stocks up about 15 percent for the year. Traders now face the task of unwinding those trades, which is expected to continue to roil global markets across asset classes.
"We think the stock markets still have a little bit further to go. We're a little bit less optimistic than the Fed as we think fiscal tightening is still going to drag on the economy in the next few months," said Larry Kantor, head of research at Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) .
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were down 17/32 in price to yield 2.4844 percent, while 30-year bonds dropped 22/32 in price to yield 3.555 percent.
The dollar continued to climb as Bernanke's view that the U.S. economy is improving prompted traders to start pricing in a rise in interest rates in late 2014.
"We're very bullish right now on the U.S. dollar," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York.
He said the dollar is likely to gain regardless of Fed actions on tapering. If the economy improves and the Fed cuts back on its stimulus, the dollar will benefit from expectations of higher interest rates. But if the Fed maintains stimulus because the economy is weak, the dollar will rise on safe-haven demand.
The dollar rose 0.4 percent against a basket of currencies , putting it on track for a weekly gain of 2 percent, the biggest since early July, 2012.
The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.3153 and the dollar gained 0.4 percent against the yen to 97.656 yen.
There was little respite across the emerging markets, with MSCI's benchmark index down 0.8 percent.
As the Fed's policy tapering gradually pushes U.S. Treasury yields higher, the attractiveness of returns in developing countries like Turkey and South Africa has waned.
The emerging markets index has fallen close to 6 percent this week, making for a year-to-date loss of nearly 15 percent, and many in the market see further falls ahead.
Gold drew some demand from investors attracted by the week's big equity and bond price falls, although worries about China's sluggish growth outlook weighed on sentiment.
Spot gold recovered from a three-year trough and was up 1.6 percent at $1,289.26 an ounce, while gold futures added 0.9 percent to $1,297.20 an ounce.
Worries about demand from China weighed on oil. Brent crude lost $1.44 to $100.71, while U.S. oil dropped $1.39 to $93.75.
...
Markets are adjusting to the Fed's plan laid out earlier in the week for the central bank to scale back its asset purchases later this year if the U.S. economy keeps improving as expected.
This has roiled markets around the world since Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined the timeline on Wednesday, with interest rates rising and equities markets selling off.
"It's all one big unwind. That's been a negative for Treasuries as hedges are unwound," said Sean Murphy, a Treasuries trader at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) in New York.
Easing fears about an immediate banking crisis in China helped make for a calmer tone, but short-term funding rates there remain elevated, especially for smaller lenders.
U.S. stocks were modestly higher by early afternoon following a two-day selloff and 10-year Treasuries yields rose above 2.50 percent, their highest level since August 2011. The dollar rose and was headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost a year.
MSCI (NYSE: MSCI - news) 's broad world stock index, which tracks shares in 45 countries, was off 0.2 percent, and Europe's broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 index ended down 1 percent.
The quarterly expiration and settlement of June U.S. equity options and futures contracts later on Friday is seen likely to contribute to volatility for the session.
About $14 billion is expected to change hands in index rebalancing-related trading toward the session's close, according to Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS - news) , which could further add to volatility.
The Dow Jones industrial average added 21.95 points, or 0.15 percent, at 14,780.27. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 2.70 points, or 0.17 percent, at 1,590.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 13.17 points, or 0.39 percent, at 3,351.45.
The recovery in stocks coincided with a Wall Street Journal article suggesting markets were "misreading" the Fed.
"The market read what it wanted to read but although there was a reaction in stocks, the yields aren't moving," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.
"It just shows that the equity market is nervous and would react to any headline at this point."
The Fed is currently buying $85 billion a month in bonds, part of its huge stimulus effort that has driven many investors to embrace riskier assets and has sent U.S. stocks up about 15 percent for the year. Traders now face the task of unwinding those trades, which is expected to continue to roil global markets across asset classes.
"We think the stock markets still have a little bit further to go. We're a little bit less optimistic than the Fed as we think fiscal tightening is still going to drag on the economy in the next few months," said Larry Kantor, head of research at Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) .
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were down 17/32 in price to yield 2.4844 percent, while 30-year bonds dropped 22/32 in price to yield 3.555 percent.
The dollar continued to climb as Bernanke's view that the U.S. economy is improving prompted traders to start pricing in a rise in interest rates in late 2014.
"We're very bullish right now on the U.S. dollar," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York.
He said the dollar is likely to gain regardless of Fed actions on tapering. If the economy improves and the Fed cuts back on its stimulus, the dollar will benefit from expectations of higher interest rates. But if the Fed maintains stimulus because the economy is weak, the dollar will rise on safe-haven demand.
The dollar rose 0.4 percent against a basket of currencies , putting it on track for a weekly gain of 2 percent, the biggest since early July, 2012.
The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.3153 and the dollar gained 0.4 percent against the yen to 97.656 yen.
There was little respite across the emerging markets, with MSCI's benchmark index down 0.8 percent.
As the Fed's policy tapering gradually pushes U.S. Treasury yields higher, the attractiveness of returns in developing countries like Turkey and South Africa has waned.
The emerging markets index has fallen close to 6 percent this week, making for a year-to-date loss of nearly 15 percent, and many in the market see further falls ahead.
Gold drew some demand from investors attracted by the week's big equity and bond price falls, although worries about China's sluggish growth outlook weighed on sentiment.
Spot gold recovered from a three-year trough and was up 1.6 percent at $1,289.26 an ounce, while gold futures added 0.9 percent to $1,297.20 an ounce.
Worries about demand from China weighed on oil. Brent crude lost $1.44 to $100.71, while U.S. oil dropped $1.39 to $93.75.
...
M
malaguti
Hey Atilla, without detracting from the valuable service..your spreadsheet seems to exclude May, and my last forecast was excluded for last week.
Just an oversight, of course
Atilla
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Hi Robster,
As per malaguti's note - just noticed May is there but dates have changed.
There is something strange going on for sure and do not think I changed them.
Don't understand how I could have missed malaguti and mike's forecasts either.
Am I really the only person who can make changes here?
Atilla
timsk
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Hi all,
I'm not normally one to boast and, certainly, I've always thought that quoting one's own post to show off and to rub the noses of one's fellow competitors in the smelly stuff is - at best - very poor taste. However, just this once, I'm going to allow myself this very indulgence. This is what I wrote last week . . .
I thank you. I thank you all. Oh, the applause, it's deafening. Thank you, thank you all so much. I love you all too . . .
And for my next trick: 1,559 this week please Atilla.
Tim.
I'm not normally one to boast and, certainly, I've always thought that quoting one's own post to show off and to rub the noses of one's fellow competitors in the smelly stuff is - at best - very poor taste. However, just this once, I'm going to allow myself this very indulgence. This is what I wrote last week . . .
I thank you. I thank you all. Oh, the applause, it's deafening. Thank you, thank you all so much. I love you all too . . .
And for my next trick: 1,559 this week please Atilla.
Tim.
timsk
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Hi whitewolf,
No, it's a weekly comp' - so it's to predict next Friday's close.
Tim.
