Quality rebuttal versus trading gurus such as James 16

[Jason101]

Re: Quality rebutall versus trading gurus such as James 16

HTF do they find threads like this so quickly?

Either they are paid $50k a year to troll through these sites or they just do what I did and log on and press the "New Posts" tab - Its at the top of the page and quite useful.:|

 

[FX Bandit]

Don't forget the importance of what the pin is poking into -

....an important S/R level or EMA.....

Sure, people focus on the bar but in reality this is the least important aspect. The key is the "area" - S/R, a pivot, a big number. But again, don't forget that S/R or whatever is just a picture of the underlying reality, which is price or a price band.

The bar or candle is just a picture of a certain price behaviour - on its own it is nothing.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

Sure, people focus on the bar but in reality this is the least important aspect. The key is the "area" - S/R, a pivot, a big number. But again, don't forget that S/R or whatever is just a picture of the underlying reality, which is price or a price band.

The bar or candle is just a picture of a certain price behaviour - on its own it is nothing.

Not that funny so eh ? Maybe I should have used pen instead of pin....


I agree by the way..

 

[spreader_legger]

I must admit, many have dismissed technical analysis or chartism as absolute hogwash. I even heard one university dismissed the study of the topic with very little consideration.

It would be very interesting if someone like yourself or an ex IB trader challenged James from J16 directly regarding his methodologies in some public forum. I think that would be fantastic as the millions of so-called lemmings that have followed his posts could finally be shown what's what!

Ah, you mean it looks not dissimilar to the rocketship in Austin Powers, the long one with the two small spherical boosters? Johnson..?

 

[FX Bandit]

I must admit, many have dismissed technical analysis or chartism as absolute hogwash. I even heard one university dismissed the study of the topic with very little consideration.

It would be very interesting if someone like yourself or an ex IB trader challenged James from J16 directly regarding his methodologies in some public forum. I think that would be fantastic as the millions of so-called lemmings that have followed his posts could finally be shown what's what!

I can't understand all this recent hostility. I suppose it's just the forum fashion, which changes with the wind.

The concepts are thoroughly sound - I know they are because my account tells me so.

At the end of the day, there are countless ways to approach the market.

 

[FX Bandit]

It would be very interesting if someone like yourself or an ex IB trader challenged James from J16 directly regarding his methodologies in some public forum. I think that would be fantastic as the millions of so-called lemmings that have followed his posts could finally be shown what's what!

There's actually a couple of such challenges currently going on over at FF if you're interested. More heat than light in my opinion, but it passes the time on a slow day (like today).

 

[rahrahrah]

So how do you all trade, you don't use good old s/r, fibs etc?

Or you are all fundy traders?

James teaches good old basic s/r, fibs, not really tl's, mainly side to side support, often times he likes to use PA at those key areas, anyway, yea, what do you all trade, what kind of stuff.

If your not to lazy you can learn everything for free from him, if your a tad lazy and need everything more organised for you, then you can chose to pay him, but either way you need to put your time in. If you think he's a scam don't pay him, just learn what you can for free, even if you don't use all his stuff, you will pickup something towards your trading.

 

[LiamH]

So how do you all trade, you don't use good old s/r, fibs etc?

Or you are all fundy traders?

James teaches good old basic s/r, fibs, not really tl's, mainly side to side support, often times he likes to use PA at those key areas, anyway, yea, what do you all trade, what kind of stuff.

If your not to lazy you can learn everything for free from him, if your a tad lazy and need everything more organised for you, then you can chose to pay him, but either way you need to put your time in. If you think he's a scam don't pay him, just learn what you can for free, even if you don't use all his stuff, you will pickup something towards your trading.

I agree with this... Was the initial problem with J16 not that he said alot of contradictory things re his business rather than the content of his teachings? It would be difficult to argue with the stuff in his thread because it's the bread and butter of technical trading.

 

[Jason101]

I can't understand all this recent hostility. I suppose it's just the forum fashion, which changes with the wind.

What is the new fashion in trading style?

J16 incorporates the basics of market structure, full stop.

I can not think of any trading ideas using TA collecting more than a scalp or a short momentum, that would not incorporate at least some of the structure shown on J16, in some form or manor.

And its Free!

 

[meanreversion]

The thing that struck me when reading the description of pin bars is that the entry is described in a fairly detailed way. It's entirely possible to come up with a set of rules for that, or it might even be easier to do through visual inspection.

The bit I don't like is that the exit strategy is very vague. It talks about placing a stop 10 pips above the entry, then maybe taking off half for a profit of 20-30 pips, then sort of moving your stop to breakeven and leaving the rest to run (but it doesn't say how far).

There are 3 parts to every trade - entry, position size and exit. People love to focus on the entry, because that is the most exciting bit (no sexual innuendo intended). But once you're in a trade, then what? The way in which traders exit these positions will make or break their P/L, and for me, there doesn't seem to be a clear exit strategy.

I'm happy to accept that these pin bars might be "high probability" entries, but only in the sense that the market will move 10-20 pips in your favour fairly quickly, but beyond that it's not clear what happens.

This strategy is not backtestable as the exit is not clearly defined. Therefore the P/L of using them is simply down to how you take your profits, and I suspect (as with most strategies) that the real juice is when you catch a decent move down (100 pips+) and ride it.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Re: Quality rebutall versus trading gurus such as James 16

Either they are paid $50k a year to troll through these sites or they just do what I did and log on and press the "New Posts" tab - Its at the top of the page and quite useful.:|

Just happen to register and click new post at the same time these treads are created do they?

 

[glyder]

MR - I think you are spot on in your analysis there, really a 20/30 pip trade is not the result I would be after, I like to limit losses so I also count break even as a win. For me its the runners that matter (and they don't all emanate from pinbars, not by any means).

Trade management and exits vary a lot - its a matter of style and comfort.
Some like to close half a position at T1 then let the other half run with a stop in place for zero risk - they may have a target of a weekly S/R, while others like to add to the position as it becomes a stronger move.
Some will just move a stop according to S/R levels on a lower TF (eg use the 4 hour for dailies), or even according to fib extension levels. Lots of discretion in that respect. But I think whichever chosen system is used its best to stick to one and not mix and match.
Edit: To add a bit more, some say if a pinbar or other set up don't break on the following bar it is no longer valid, personally I think that is a matter of looking at other factors too. To see one along these lines playing out right now check the CHFJPY, it didn't quite bite yesterday, but for me that doesn't invalidate it yet.

The thing that struck me when reading the description of pin bars is that the entry is described in a fairly detailed way. It's entirely possible to come up with a set of rules for that, or it might even be easier to do through visual inspection.

The bit I don't like is that the exit strategy is very vague. It talks about placing a stop 10 pips above the entry, then maybe taking off half for a profit of 20-30 pips, then sort of moving your stop to breakeven and leaving the rest to run (but it doesn't say how far).

There are 3 parts to every trade - entry, position size and exit. People love to focus on the entry, because that is the most exciting bit (no sexual innuendo intended). But once you're in a trade, then what? The way in which traders exit these positions will make or break their P/L, and for me, there doesn't seem to be a clear exit strategy.

I'm happy to accept that these pin bars might be "high probability" entries, but only in the sense that the market will move 10-20 pips in your favour fairly quickly, but beyond that it's not clear what happens.

This strategy is not backtestable as the exit is not clearly defined. Therefore the P/L of using them is simply down to how you take your profits, and I suspect (as with most strategies) that the real juice is when you catch a decent move down (100 pips+) and ride it.

 

[DionysusToast]

The thing that struck me when reading the description of pin bars is that the entry is described in a fairly detailed way. It's entirely possible to come up with a set of rules for that, or it might even be easier to do through visual inspection.

What should be more worrying is that a student of James16 AND the author of a huge pin bar thread on here does not use pin bars himself. This is the delightful Trader_Dante.

What should also be of concern is how obvious the pin bars are themselves. If they represent an exploitable edge in the market and are well known by every Tom, Dick and Harry, then exactly how long should we expect them to work for us?

Or is this an edge that will never disappear, regardless of how many people trade it?

Of course, the replies to this will be that pin bars can only be used as part of a greater methodology but even so, it is reasonable to surmise that through excessive exploitation, the pin bar itself will end up being of no benefit as part of the 'greater methodology'.

The whole thing is very neatly packaged as to be unassailable. You can't test pin bars because they can only be used with something else but no-one will really outline the 'something else' because that is a secret.

So, you have something that will be defended to death by the same people that tell you it can't be tested. What is entirely possible is that the pin bar adds nothing and that the 'something else' is everything.

Plus - it does look like a schlong.

 

[Black Swan]

The whole thing is very neatly packaged as to be unassailable. You can't test pin bars because they can only be used with something else but no-one will really outline the 'something else' because that is a secret.

So, you have something that will be defended to death by the same people that tell you it can't be tested. What is entirely possible is that the pin bar adds nothing and that the 'something else' is everything.

Plus - it does look like a schlong.

Gurus and educators; a ba5tard hybrid of the Wizard of Oz (wheezing and peddling behind a curtain) and Rolf Harris (can you see it yet?). I'll bet half of 'em have a fetish for red sparkly shoes too...

 

[pboyles]

Test this

5 minute chart
Weekly pivots
Only trades that are at pivot point levels
Stoploss 1 tick above/below tip of PIN
Take profit at RR 1:1

 

[glyder]

D.Toast- As said by others above J16 is not really about pin bars its about SR levels and PA at those levels.
I can't speak for Dante but maybe I'll try and guess that he was saying/meaning 'do not slavisly follow pinbars, or even other entry bar formations. Check the S/R position and direction of the market first.'
J16 will sometimes take entries purely from levels without any bar formation. To call it a pinbar trading technique is to see no more than 10%.
Of course these are easy for beginners to latch on to.
Will they disappear if too many trade them? I doubt it, they are most likely caused by the big boys not retail traders
But then if they disappear something else will pop up to replace them. Markets will always over extend and retrace, they will show their hand as they do so.
(Until we get the one world govt and currency )

What should be more worrying is that a student of James16 AND the author of a huge pin bar thread on here does not use pin bars himself. This is the delightful Trader_Dante.
.

 

[meanreversion]

Test this

5 minute chart
Weekly pivots
Only trades that are at pivot point levels
Stoploss 1 tick above/below tip of PIN
Take profit at RR 1:1

Test this - is that a line from the Matrix?

Excuse my ignorance, how does one compute the weekly pivot?

I'm happy to go along this route, I'll code something up in ProRealTime (once I understand all the rules) and publish the code if anyone's interested.. it works in "Advanced Charts" as provided by IG.

 

[robster970]

Personally I'm stunned by the intensity and number responses to criticising somebody off the internet.

This Jim16 might be a nice chap and good trader but frankly, why does anybody really give a ****? It is after all, just the internet.

 

[rahrahrah]

You guys have really no idea what your talking about, if you are at all interested you'll need to go learn what he's all about, there is also plenty of guys that trade this stuff that will help anyone wanting to learn.

But if you are looking for a system with a exact set of rules that you do everytime then his stuff won't be for u.

If you want learn how to trade all different market conditions, then go check it out, but dont' expect to learn it in 5 mins, and no, it's not all about pinbars, pinbars is a small part of what they teach.

ANyway, i'm sure this is falling on deaf ears, so whatever.

EDIT: If you need help getting moving at a faster rate, look for Mike, or Jarroo, or Ghous, esp mike he really kicks ass and is a great help, with any kind of trading.

And of course James.

Careful tho, you might get scammed since it's free, with multiple teachers, you never know which one will scam you.

 

[pboyles]

Test this - is that a line from the Matrix?

Excuse my ignorance, how does one compute the weekly pivot?

I'm happy to go along this route, I'll code something up in ProRealTime (once I understand all the rules) and publish the code if anyone's interested.. it works in "Advanced Charts" as provided by IG.

Weekly pivot points are calculated in the same way as normal daily pivots except you use the open, high, low and close from the previous week rather than the previous day. Ninja trader has a setting that allows you to do this without having to resort to manually calculating them. It's pretty simple.

Someone was complaining they couldn't test PINs because there was some sort of unknown factor, well now you have somewhere to start should you to test them for yourself.