Proof of pure unadulterated genious

[LORD JAMLA]

Shall I stick my head on the line. Hmmmmmm yes I shall.
This is the last bit of divine inspiration I shall be giving away for some time, so do take heed of it.

Buy as much Dow and FTSE futures as you can since this shall by an extremely bullish week. For EW enthusiasts, and this is proof that Lord J can perform the analysis, we are about to begin either wave 2, or more probably wave C of an expanding flat on most major stocks and indices. 3,600 on FTSE and 8,000 on Dow fits Fibonacci retractment levels perfectly as does the time ratio.

Hence, the much feared 'Battle of Baghdad' shall be dominated by the Allies and all the fears you have read in your papers will prove to be unfounded, at least for this week.

 

[julesrules]

technical analysis, is not going to be woth anything this week. For pure unadulterated genious you should have been up at 1am going long on eur/usd as i was i did the exact same last week and made a great return.

 

[LORD JAMLA]

Hi Jules, so are you saying that the Dow is going down this wekk?? Or you simply don't have a clue where it is going?? I don't need to wake up at 1am to make money from the markets - I can make money from them at any time. I've told you where there going, now you tell me and we'll see who the genius is

 

[wysinawyg]

I'll happily plump for it going down on the week since your post.

In any case I thought you though EW was a load of cobblers.

wysi

 

[catsdad100]

With the US down 170 pts as I write, and all the FTSE stocks hammered today, I do find it hard to picture this great rally, but I have been wrong before !
Oh, by the way, Lord J, Shepherd is spelt this way not your way !

 

[JonnyT]

Ouch, is the Lord bankrupt?

JonnyT

 

[ChartMan]

I see it up too. I've seen the light and the error of my ways.

 

[frugi]

Sorry to rudely butt in but does anyone know where to find free software or a website where I can overlay Fibonacci targets on a chart, ideally over time (left to right) as well as over price (up and down)? Stockcharts used to have an excellent annotation tool but they are charging for it now and don't cover UK stocks anyway.

Cheers.

 

[LORD JAMLA]

Jonny, why am i bankrupt, I was long FTSE @ 3616 and Dow @ 7965, come back tommorow and see how much i've made, for the record wysinawg is saying it will be lower this week. Watch me make a clown out of him

 

[Mr. Charts]

What a shame people can't be nice to one another.
Rudeness, like an over-weening ego, never gets you anywhere in the long run.

 

[julesrules]

i made 960 pips profit by getting up at 1am

regarding the DOW, i couldnt possibly speculate on what the dow will do over the week, it is impossible to tell.
but i knew once the market opened the euro/usd would rise, thus giving me a profit of 960 pips.

 

[wysinawyg]

<i>Jonny, why am i bankrupt, I was long FTSE @ 3616 and Dow @ 7965, come back tommorow and see how much i've made, for the record wysinawg is saying it will be lower this week. Watch me make a clown out of him.</i>

OK 7965 seems a fair enough point to go from.

Just to clarify my view on a down week is based on the recent high failing to breach any other recent clear high. I wouldn't trade from here but on the basis that it looks like a clear down trend I'm happy to put the odds of a fall at over 50%.

wysi

(the actual entry I picked was short on the DAX at 2640 about a week ago with a 112 point stop and a 250 point target, but the Dow chart is fairly similar and doesn't have IMHO a clear indication of a change of the down trend recently and whilst I'd pick a 250 point target there are probably decent odds of it extending below this)

 

[rglenn]

I am not as clever as most people on this board!

But I tend to agree with Jamla on this one.

It does appear that the bottom for the Dow now is around the 8000 mark , FTSE 3600, Dax2400.

Though there will be a small break below these figures it won't last very long in my own opinion.

Shorting below these figures I don't think will give up many points.

All the best to everyone - may the enlighten ones claim the ultimate prize!!

 

[jpwone]

I feel it is going to take some very good news to push the dow out of the downward channel it is in.

Lets beare in mind that the recent economic data has been poor to bad. This has been overridden/masked by war concerns and war news. Once the war news starts to take on a 'war news again' feeling then the market will start to look at the underlying fundementals properly again.

Having said that, I think the new US tactic of sending in a couple of divisions of journalists could be the surprise weapon no-one was expecting. They could be in the process of flash-gunning, videoing and interviewing the Iraq forces to a complete standstill. Nope, can't be that because they seem to be doing that to their own side.

The bottom line is that good news/rallies are still being sold into and the market is still reacting badly to bad news, rumour and even no news. Late last week the market shook off 50 points in minutes on the report of a large explosion in Kuwait. It turned out to be a gas bottle in someones kitchen. This is a very nervous market and nervous markets become cautious markets.

The recent move upwards in the market was partly attributed to the Bush tax plan/credits. These are to be withdrawn or postponed now to pay for the war. Lets have a guess what that has done to the next set of consumer confidence figures.

Nope, there could be some short term pushes up and there could even be some significant gains based on positive news from Iraq but the bear market still has the reins on this one from my point of view.

JPWone

 

[RogerM]

FWIW - when the moment to go long comes, it will feel totally wrong, as it did before the massive pre-war rally, and as shown by divergence in the range of market breadth indicators in AIQ, demonstrated in the "short term ftse bottom thread". For EW officianados, the pre-war rally was the "A" wave, we may be at or close to the bottom of the "B" wave, which should then be followed by a "C" wave up. This will probably only exceed the recent high by a small margin, and then it will be back down again to new lows. As always, peeps will give all sorts of "war" reasons for whatever happens.

Today we saw both the S&P and the ftse hit the 50% retracement of the rally. The 50% retracement of the ftse cash was 3580, and the index turned at 3581. Have we seen the bottom of this retracement? Who knows, but I took the precaution on Friday of closing my short April 4025 calls, having seen the premium almost halve in 2 days. I would have done better to wait until today, but I'm only interested in the easy money that is just there to be picked off the table - not the hairy stuff.

May I also support Mr Charts plea that we should be nice to each other. Life is too short for unnecessary conflict!

 

[LORD JAMLA]

wysinawg, please be aware that 80% of the time E-Waves is a load of tosh and cannot be used to make money from the markets. However, 20 % of the time clear patterns develop and it can be used, and this is one of those occasions. The reason I am explaining it is to disparage the age old comment that those who disagree with it, can't use it properly. I can use it, but still beleive it is relatively worthless with a less than 30% success rate. THE KEY IS TO USE THE CORRECT TECHNIQUE AT THE CORRECT TIME.
May, I correct by saying that we should be beginning either a C or a wave 3, not a2 as I had mistyped earlier. If le Dow fails at circa 8,800 , thus making a double top then we shall have a wave 3 down and it shall be sh@t hitting the fan time. If however, she can pass 9,100 then we should approach circa 10,000 later in the year. The reason I favour the former is because stocks are showing corrective patterns, look at Log's 6 month chart, - a beauti - C of an expanded flat to target 115-120 is about to start. Clear as day.

jpwone - there shall be good news from the war in iraq this week, do not worry about the doom and gloom you read, this will be used as the reasons for this rise.

 

[Naz]

I've always tried to be long and short at the same time looking for low risk ideas in a number of weak and strong stocks.Always keeping an eye on MSFT and for some part INTC for the general trend of the market i follow.I have been suprised over the years how this has helped pinpoint turning points in the market.ie,getting good at reading these two stocks has been a catalyst for seeing changes in direction of the Nasdaq.Many times it has been the Nasdaq that has led the way in the US markets.(You know the saying "The Nasdaq leads and the world follows").

Key examples last year were the island reversal on the Nasdaq at a major turning point in March and the island reversal on MSFT at a fib level in the Autumn.All posted on t2w.

Getting a feel for MSFT and INTC at key turning points is much easier if you can see all the action on the level 2 screen.To be honest i dont say to myself "i think we are going to do this or that".I just watch the level 2 action and let them show me which way were going.

I've seen the Nasdaq short ever since MSFT did this.

 

[Naz]

If your interested, this is what MSFT is doing now.

 

[LORD JAMLA]

Cheers for that, Naz. Personally, I've seen this situation many a time. The Dow is just treading water, waiting for some bit of good news to set it alight, whether economicaL or political. I still feel there will be good news from Iraq in the next 3 days - confirmation of the death of Saddam maybe??? Either way the C wave has begun, Log and 3i are the 2 stocks that have most upside IMHO due to their patterns. I got them at 90 and 416p (in real life) respectively. However, one has to be carefull. At the moment this wave has a typical personality of a C wave - people scratching their heads not knowing why we are going up. In the medium term that means the FTSE much lower.

 

[LORD JAMLA]

Hmmmmm it's all gone eerily quiet on the western front. Humble pie and mint tea has left thy too bloated to talk. Though doubted the Lord from day one and to thy cost aswell. At times, one has to give in to brilliance instead of swimming in hostile waters. I am here to educate - I do not need money from my seminar, I like to teach and open the minds of the masses - enlightening them and their lives as one. We have seen how people get brainwashed and follow the masses, in these anti-war protests - jumping on bandwagons to make them feel good - part of something - the same thing happens in the markets everyday.

The truth is out there.