The Wisdom of Crowds Experiment

[Big_P]

Big_P is bored so ....

I thought I’d try an experiment based on the principle of The Wisdom of Crowds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

The principle originated from a fun fair game. Villagers had to guess the weight of a cow and the closest guess won a prize. But it transpired that the average of all of the guesses was pretty spot on to the actual weight of the cow.

Would this work if T2W members had a stab at the closing price of the FTSE at the end of next week?

Just for the hell of it, shall we give it a go?

This is very important : you cannot be influenced by other members, so your guess cannot be made public. So everyone who wants to take part would have to email me their guess. Also for this to work, we’d probably need a fairly good sample size. 50 maybe?

So here’s what I’ll do. Everyone has to make their guess by 4.30pm on Tuesday.

Your guess will be : THE CLOSING PRICE OF THE FTSE ON FRIDAY 26TH AUGUST.

If I don’t get 50, I’ll scrap the experiment.

If I get 50, I’ll post the average on Wednesday morning.

Come on guys, can we get this together without it turning into another lulzy thread?!

Big P

 

[megamuel]

Good idea, I saw something like this on TV the other day where people were guessing at sweets in a jar. All the answers were way out but the average was only about 2 out or something. Maybe if it works we could develop the T2W Wisdom of Crowds Indicator. Hmmm.... Maybe not! I'll PM you my guess!

Sam.

 

[redart]

pm sent

 

[Hotch]

Next week, "you were out guys, let's give it another go eh?"
Soon, "Hey guys! I'm in Forbes this week!"

 

[Big_P]

Next week, "you were out guys, let's give it another go eh?"
Soon, "Hey guys! I'm in Forbes this week!"

I wish ...

I'll post a spreadsheet on Wednesday morning of all the guesses, so you can all see the results for yourselves. I won't be keeping anything hidden.

Thanks to Megamuel, Vorbis, Redart and G.O.A.T for participating.

Come on guys and gals, keep the guesses rolling in!

 

[neil]

Hmmmm....sweets in a jar + fixed quantity to guess correct number.
FTSE....=fluctuating quantity on a daily basis AND trying to guess a ( at this point in time) a non existant quantity.
Therefore your experiment is not a "wisdom of crowds" experiment !

 

[Big_P]

Hmmmm....sweets in a jar + fixed quantity to guess correct number.
FTSE....=fluctuating quantity on a daily basis AND trying to guess a ( at this point in time) a non existant quantity.
Therefore your experiment is not a "wisdom of crowds" experiment !

Ok maybe not a strict "Wisdom of Crowds" experiment, but a loose take on it.

Go with it Neil, just a bit of fun. Don't spoil the party just yet ...

 

[neil]

Ok maybe not a strict "Wisdom of Crowds" experiment, but a loose take on it.

Go with it Neil, just a bit of fun. Don't spoil the party just yet ...

I agree. I have no intention of being a spoilsport. Lets give the experiment a go since all knowledge from experiment is useful

 

[Black Swan]

Pm on it's way

 

[Big_P]

Thanks to Black Swan, Bedsit and Barjon.

Only 7 guesses so far ... keep 'em coming!

 

[Big_P]

Any more guesses pleeassseee ?

Sample size so far = 8
Ideally I was hoping for 50, can we get there by 4.30pm today?

Big P

 

[dc2000]

Im in

 

[KTF]

ok

 

[Big_P]

Thanks to Megamuel, Vorbis, Redart, G.O.A.T, Barjon, Bedsit, Black Swan, Superspurs, dc2000, dan1986ccfc and Trendie for participating so far.

Looks like 50 guesses might have been a bit optimistic! - But let's see how we get on anyway.

You still time if you haven't already guessed. I'll post the results at 4.30pm

Big P

 

[Big_P]

Ok, not the most scientific experiment with only a sample size of 13 ...

But anyway, we have an average of 5134.

Roll on Friday close!

 

[dc2000]

gettin close

 

[Big_P]

This could be extremely close ....

 

[superspurs]

From where are you taking the closing price.

 

[megamuel]

Was pretty close. Thought we were gonna be bang on for a moment!

 

[superspurs]

It was certainly flapping around the number,try again next week.