Best Thread Phil Newton's Range Break Out strategy

[tomorton]

Good observation stevespray. Even people with a system find it difficult to employ - it's not a question of how simple the system is, it's to do with how complex people are.

 

[Barramundi]

I assume that being part of a room helps this particular aspect of trading development? By being a room you might just stick with things long enough to see some positive results as the system edge plays out.

It would be natural to assume it would, and I there are no doubt benefits to be coached. But there are rooms with several hundred people trading the S&P overnight when it's illiquid. Trades will confirm that only become valid because eager room traders get in early and push the price up, and then others miss out as the price moves rapidly away from the designated entry price, and at exits not everyone gets filled as the mulitude of contracts queued up at the exit price form resistance. Thus it gets traders into bad habits such as chasing trades, getting in early to avoid missing out, taking smaller profits to be sure you get something out of it etc.

So yeah, there are both positives and negatives to room trading even at the emotional level.

 

[Barramundi]

I assume that being part of a room helps this particular aspect of trading development? By being a room you might just stick with things long enough to see some positive results as the system edge plays out.

It would be natural to assume it would, and I there are no doubt benefits to be coached. But there are rooms with several hundred people trading the S&P overnight when it's illiquid. Trades will confirm that only become valid because eager room traders get in early and push the price up, and then others miss out as the price moves rapidly away from the designated entry price, and at exits not everyone gets filled as the mulitude of contracts queued up at the exit price form resistance. Thus it gets traders into bad habits such as chasing trades, getting in early to avoid missing out, taking smaller profits to be sure you get something out of it etc.

So yeah, there are both positives and negatives to room trading even at the emotional level.

 

[stevespray]

It would be natural to assume it would, and I there are no doubt benefits to be coached. But there are rooms with several hundred people trading the S&P overnight when it's illiquid. Trades will confirm that only become valid because eager room traders get in early and push the price up, and then others miss out as the price moves rapidly away from the designated entry price, and at exits not everyone gets filled as the mulitude of contracts queued up at the exit price form resistance. Thus it gets traders into bad habits such as chasing trades, getting in early to avoid missing out, taking smaller profits to be sure you get something out of it etc.

So yeah, there are both positives and negatives to room trading even at the emotional level.

I take your point but that is unlikely to happen on any of the major forex pairs during European market hours.


Steve.

 

[stevespray]

It would be natural to assume it would, and I there are no doubt benefits to be coached. But there are rooms with several hundred people trading the S&P overnight when it's illiquid. Trades will confirm that only become valid because eager room traders get in early and push the price up, and then others miss out as the price moves rapidly away from the designated entry price, and at exits not everyone gets filled as the mulitude of contracts queued up at the exit price form resistance. Thus it gets traders into bad habits such as chasing trades, getting in early to avoid missing out, taking smaller profits to be sure you get something out of it etc.

So yeah, there are both positives and negatives to room trading even at the emotional level.

I take your point but that is unlikely to happen on any of the major forex pairs during European market hours.


Steve.

 

[Barramundi]

I take your point but that is unlikely to happen on any of the major forex pairs during European market hours.
Steve.

Yes, totally agree! That doesn't relate to Phil's room.
I'm just pointing out that liquidity is another consideration to take into account for those that are looking for a signal/education service.

 

[Barramundi]

I take your point but that is unlikely to happen on any of the major forex pairs during European market hours.
Steve.

Yes, totally agree! That doesn't relate to Phil's room.
I'm just pointing out that liquidity is another consideration to take into account for those that are looking for a signal/education service.

 

[timgroom]

i would say that the unique part of phil's strategy (for me) is the way he stops you from trading false breakouts by putting a long (short) above (below) the pullback... i hadnt seen this before and it makes sense...

 

[caprica1]

Nice to see people still trading Phil's breakout strategy, and entry methods. It's like a good wine, only gets better with age

 

[alfiemal]

is anyone going to talk about phils new strategy 'furquad snatch' looks like hes doing very well with it, he does not trade the opening range breakout strategy as far as i know...

 

[MajorDutch]

What about the double counting of pips? i.e. Enter with 6 lots close each lot at different time then aggregate the pip score. Makes the results look great.

 

[Splitlink]

A question. His breakout is based on the overnight high/low. What time period does "overnight" cover.

He trades forex. I trade Footsie. Is it from 1630 until 0800? Sometimes I trade cable and Euro/US$.

 

[MajorDutch]

Although the strategy highlighted at the start of this thread is still a valid one, and people do still trade it, the live strategy has moved on from this now, and Phil and the LTR members and web members typically are using a different strategy.

I can say with 100% certanty that Phil is a very knowledgable guy on this subject matter, and he is actually practicing what he preaches on a daily basis for all to see the LTR...wins...loses...frustrations...all of it.

One of the best learning environment I've been involved in.

Why did the strategy move on if the 1st one was working? Markets tend to range/consolidate more than trend so playing an overnight breakout and holding will mean you get chopped to bits. Beginner Joe is going to ask for a statement!

 

[MajorDutch]

I'm a little confused. Your blog says you are winning only 50% of the time and since Jan 1st 2010, you've made £61.20?

That's because he is double counting pips. If I go long 100 lots and close for +20 apparently that's 2000 pips in the bag.

 

[alfiemal]

A question. His breakout is based on the overnight high/low. What time period does "overnight" cover.

He trades forex. I trade Footsie. Is it from 1630 until 0800? Sometimes I trade cable and Euro/US$.

I think his asian range is midnight til 6am gmt time, im not sure but you can ask him.
But he does not trade this strategy anymore he stopped a couple of years back.

 

[alfiemal]

That's because he is double counting pips. If I go long 100 lots and close for +20 apparently that's 2000 pips in the bag.

He is actually triple counting pips as he trades muliples of 3. But he is totally upfront about it and the reason he does this is because he scales out of his trades so it is difficult to report the number of pips made.

 

[alfiemal]

Why did the strategy move on if the 1st one was working? Markets tend to range/consolidate more than trend so playing an overnight breakout and holding will mean you get chopped to bits. Beginner Joe is going to ask for a statement!

He changed strategy as the first one was alot more stressful than his new furquad, and a bit less profitable... But he still made profits with the asian overnight range breakout, breakouts are well known not just phil newton trading them.
He didnt just blindly trade breakouts he waited until price broke out and waited for a pullback before entry, used several timeframes for the analysis and made thousands of pips i know someone who watched him do it live. Even with the triple pip counting its still alot better than you average losing trader.

Why do you have a negative opinion of newtron bomb?

Anway anyone trading furquad snatch???

 

[dazzer_fx]

He changed strategy as the first one was alot more stressful than his new furquad, and a bit less profitable... But he still made profits with the asian overnight range breakout, breakouts are well known not just phil newton trading them.
He didnt just blindly trade breakouts he waited until price broke out and waited for a pullback before entry, used several timeframes for the analysis and made thousands of pips i know someone who watched him do it live. Even with the triple pip counting its still alot better than you average losing trader.

Why do you have a negative opinion of newtron bomb?

Anway anyone trading furquad snatch???

I traded with Phil up until a couple of months ago and was profitable, Phil 'walks the
walk' and makes live calls in his LTR. I learnt a great deal from Phil and my strategy
especially the money management side has been adapted from the Furquad method.

Phil has short, medium and long term targets and that is why people find the pip count
confusing. This doesn't distract from the fact he is definately profitable.

Daren.

 

[MajorDutch]

I traded with Phil up until a couple of months ago and was profitable, Phil 'walks the
walk' and makes live calls in his LTR. I learnt a great deal from Phil and my strategy
especially the money management side has been adapted from the Furquad method.

Phil has short, medium and long term targets and that is why people find the pip count
confusing. This doesn't distract from the fact he is definately profitable.

Daren.

oh right. so he is definitely profitable, with a great strategy been doing it for years. so why charge £360 per quarter? surely he is making all these thousands of pips @ £100 per pip this adds up to hundreds of thousands if not millions of pounds. Do your really think he would want the hassle of dealing with newbs if he was making this amount?

You know someone who saw him make a profit live. **** me, was this a bloke down the pub?

you believe that BS about not being able to count the pips as he scales out, jesus. how about total pips / number of trades = expectancy.

oh wait, he gets a buzz out of teaching

seen a statement, thought not.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

seen a statement, thought not.

hey that's joes line