There is a clear misconception today that the market sold off due to the interest rate cut. That is not the case. The reason why the Dow got smacked after the rate decision was because of the big re-weighting programs that are due to take place at month-end in the US. It was leaked last night that this re-balancing of the Russel 3000 and other indices would mean that several big cap stocks were “for sale” at the close of Monday night. What the big investment houses did last night was to front run these orders by shorting the market. If you look at some of the individual stock names you will for example see that
Fannie May is for sale and got hit, but Freddie Mac needs to be bought and was up for the day. Other stocks that are “to buy” on Monday are stocks like Motorola and AOL. Some of the biggest stocks like Cisco, MSFT, IBM and other huge stocks are all for sale into month-end.
The 975 area in the SP500 cash held at the close although the futures sold off after the bell. If the market is making new lows after the first 45 minutes today the bulls are in trouble. The 975 area needs to hold. Otherwise we will see the S&P500 at 965 and then 954. Above 980 will mean a trip back up to 990. I am still leaning towards either a slight new high going a lower high going into the 2nd July time frame. After that all bets are off and we should see a good sell off. For now we are merely marking time.
The Expected Path worked well up until the final hour. According to the path today we should see some mid-day weakness.
It is encouraging to see the European markets higher. It leaves me fairly confident that the big institutions will try to mark up their portfolios after all going into quarter end.
Just a short note to let you know how much I appreciate your postings.
I think your moniker "Sunseeker" is more in keeping with the personality that you display on Bloomberg than the rather stern photo that appears on moneyam.
PS I also took a few extra points off the SBs yesterday. Although the range breakout system I'm using eventually signalled a sell I jumped the gun and went in early based on your info on the Fed spike!