one in a million

[breather]

A place where you are one in the million or you can be one again. :whistling

Welcome to my newly started thread, first I wanted to narrow my field and find the peope who might be interested in my 'case' but in vain so I opened a new thread (after getting encouraged by a nice member). So, I have been trading forex like for 8 months, lost a vast majority of my capital. I do not now personally anybody who can do better, no doubt, there are lot of people who can do it, I am not stubborn or greedy, but I am lack of personal experiences. What you can not experience as an individual, that remains dead, simply dead. I might believe somthing, without individual experience it is cold as stone. You may think, I am exactly in this situation and you are right. I made my mind up and asked myself, why I want to trade forex. Hard to answer when you do not want to deceive yourself! I have a job, have money, not plenty, but enough. I had better financial times too, and I was not satisfied and it had nothing to do with financials. A man has goals in his life, wants to create something that holds, in his belief, for ever. I have a plan and I need more bucks to set it into life and I think forex trading could be the utensil for it. Well, we will see. I will frequently post questions, graphs and opinions, I would like to invite you to share your views. I have choosen the 15min-30min timeframe although it is "well known" that higher time frames are "better". I have traded them and my results were the same, solid loss. Facts are hard to overcome, I am at the moment a massive looser trader who wants to become better, much better. I have good reason to think that the change will not come alone, I need some kind of help, hints from other with personal experience. I hope that everything posted in this thread will be useful for others too who are stumbling over the stones of forex. And at last, I know about my broken english but I believe it will do the job.
I am familiar with "price action", have been never a customer of a "teacher", I have tested some of my ideas but... in vain. It looks like if I had done the opposite what i considered "the right decision" I were a rich man or someone at least with the odour of a rich man.
Let me post the first graphs here. I tried to catch range break out price action moments.

On the first one I tired to identify a break out (false), wait a pull back, set my SL at the bottom of the pull back and my entry at the overcoming of the (false) break out high. It turned out to be a looser trade.

On the second one I wonder if the break out is a (false) break out at all, I have waited for a pull back but after that it seemed to me too much messy... After watching Mr. Phil Newton vids it did not resemble his setups. I think my range boundaries might be not genuine.
Please feel free for comment.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Those translation tools make for some real lulzy reading.

Good luck anyway, friend. I hope your fortunes turn.

 

[breather]

Those translation tools make for some real lulzy reading.

Good luck anyway, friend. I hope your fortunes turn.

Dear scose-no-doubt, thank you for your comment but let me make two little corrections: first, I do not use any "translation tools" and second, I do not wish to get married with Fortuna but to understand more the nature of price action. I think my purpose should be clear despite of my lulzy english.

 

[Shakone]

Ok you have to be clearer. You make the following statements on your charts

"entered after pullback price broke previous high"

What is a break? Price moves one pip higher than a 'high'? Closes above?

What is a high for you? Looking at the bar with the two red circles, and going back 6 bars, why isn't that a high, and why didn't you enter on a break of that?

What do you call a pullback? Where did you enter exactly? Why do you think this is a good place to enter?

What was your target or criteria for getting out?

The second chart re-emphasises you need more clarity.

You ask if the breakout is genuine. You should as above have a clear idea of what is a breakout to you.

You say it looks messy to you. What does this mean? What has messiness to do with anything?

The first and second charts don't have the same entry. And there is some mention of trendlines (the horizontal orange lines?) and there are other lines on there, and moving averages which are not used or perhaps they are.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

On the first one I tired to identify a break out (false), wait a pull back, set my SL at the bottom of the pull back and my entry at the overcoming of the (false) break out high. It turned out to be a looser trade.

looks like it was a decent trade.
you have to realise, you can't win them all !

don't get disheartened when "good" trades turn bad.
Celebrate your losers, 'cos it means the next winning trade is just around the corner.

 

[breather]

Okay guys & girls,

thank you all for taking time and share your views in this thread. I do really appreciate every single comment. Indeed, my work needs some clarification.
As a base of my trading serves Phil Newton's range break out strategy. You might well be familiar with that, for those who are not I give some basic informations about it.
Wait for a ranged price movement. It means, let the price test support/resistance AT LEAST twice. Looak always at the highs and lows of the candles, close of them seems not to be important.
Look for a breakout. When it happens, look for the first bar not making a new high, this will be beginning of the pullback.
Look for the price continuing his way in the way of the breakout, and when it breaks the new low (in a downtrend), enter the trade. Set your SL at the end of the pullback.
Breaking a candle means here overcome its high or low by 1 pip.
Breakout means, a support or resistance is overcome by ANY pips, it could be 1 or 10 etc.

All this information is from Phil Newton, you can find his vids and more ins his thread. I only try to use it.
I will post here one of my trade again and I try to become clearer. Oh dear, a winning one.

 

[PATrader]

I would suggest you trade reversals instead of breakouts. Reversals are easier to trade than breakouts. Practice on one type of strategy first, then if you want , you can try breakouts. Don't do too many things at once.

 

[breather]

Hey,

I will post only graphs to tell "the story", I have written the important information in them.

I still have problems with positioning a range. I mean, range bound price movements occur time to time, but I am unsure about them. Which one has the more importance regarding a possibly large breakout movement? Any suggestions?
I got a suggestion from a new member to trade reversals, but... Could you give me some hints? I really need personal experience, I have read a lot about things and every single one sounds promising... I need to trade them personally and get literally in touch with them, you know... I have traded 'strategies" that were 'fantastic' by individuals I never met and I never could discuss it with them, that is one part why I have lost so much. I have just tried things without plunging in myself deeply. I have thought this forum would maybe help me (and others) a bit, to tell the truth, I thought there were more comments from people who really know the score. Or just better than me.

 

[rsh01]

Also perhaps use paragraphs (this is not an indicator though)

 

[PATrader]

I got a suggestion from a new member to trade reversals, but... Could you give me some hints?

The market doesn't go in a straight line. you will see ups and downs every time. (or trading sideways). By trading reversals, you wait for a "trend" to slow and stop, then find opportunities to enter on the opposite direction that's all. By ensuring that you only enter at a "low" or a "high" you have increased your probability.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Hey,

I will post only graphs to tell "the story", I have written the important information in them.

I still have problems with positioning a range. I mean, range bound price movements occur time to time, but I am unsure about them. Which one has the more importance regarding a possibly large breakout movement? Any suggestions?
I got a suggestion from a new member to trade reversals, but... Could you give me some hints? I really need personal experience, I have read a lot about things and every single one sounds promising... I need to trade them personally and get literally in touch with them, you know... I have traded 'strategies" that were 'fantastic' by individuals I never met and I never could discuss it with them, that is one part why I have lost so much. I have just tried things without plunging in myself deeply. I have thought this forum would maybe help me (and others) a bit, to tell the truth, I thought there were more comments from people who really know the score. Or just better than me.

i see from the comments on the chart that you think by entering on the 5m chart you "lost" a few pips ??
So now you want to focus on the 1m chart ?

WRONG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1. you can't possibly hope for every pip in the game. Be happy with the meat in the middle, don't look for every grain of bread in the sandwich

2. as you seem to completely lack any idea of what you are doing, and seem to have confidence issues, the 1m chart will eat you up and spit you out.

3. I don't like have time-frames,
I believe price points are more significant.
okay, forex might be slightly different,
but basically in the stock market/futures,
there are usually pre-determined or significant levels which define the extremities of the activities of the day ahead.
In between these extreme levels, floor traders toy with and rape retail traders with their stochastics, MACDs etc.
Beyond these extremities, the big boys, hedge funds, insurance companies etc typically step in
and price will revert to mean.
But these hedge funds are looking at price levels, not what's happening on the 1m versus 3m versus 15m charts or whatever.

4. However you define these price points - 00s, pivots, random horizontal lines,
try to get it out of your head that you have to fret about Time Frames.

5. In the example shown, there was a previous High at approx 1.0320
That would have been evident on a 1m, 3m, 5m, 15m maybe even a 30m chart anyway.

6. the Low of your channel was approx 1.0280

7. so a simple plan, regardless of TF, stochastics, candles shapes whatever, would be to have
a) a resting Buy Stop at 1.0320
b) a pre-defined target of (320-280=40) (320+40=) 1.0360
c) a Stop Loss of (40/2=20) (320-20=) 1.0300
d) set these in advance and go to the pub

8. the best advice I can give you is to NEVER react to price, signals, indicators etc.
ALWAYS have a pre-determined plan with clearly defined entries and exits.
They should be so well-defined that you could leave your kid sister to trade them manually for you while you're in the pub.

 

[PATrader]

7. so a simple plan, regardless of TF, stochastics, candles shapes whatever, would be to have
a) a resting Buy Stop at 1.0320
b) a pre-defined target of (320-280=40) (320+40=) 1.0360
c) a Stop Loss of (40/2=20) (320-20=) 1.0300
d) set these in advance and go to the pub

8. the best advice I can give you is to NEVER react to price, signals, indicators etc.
ALWAYS have a pre-determined plan with clearly defined entries and exits.
They should be so well-defined that you could leave your kid sister to trade them manually for you while you're in the pub.

you never know what will happen. Therefore, i don't advice putting orders before price shows you what its doing (at those order levels). Always react to price.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

well we'll have to agree to disagree

 

[rathcoole_exile]

until the day comes in a few years time when you'll realise I was right all along ....

 

[PATrader]

until the day comes in a few years time when you'll realise I was right all along ....

you put a buy order and went to play. How would you know before hand what the invisible hands wants to do at those levels while you are playing. Maybe they just want to do some false break and keep selling. you won't know. Anyway, i agree with you, that we should agree to disagree. After all, they are just opinions. cheers

 

[rathcoole_exile]

you put a buy order and went to play. How would you know before hand what the invisible hands wants to do at those levels while you are playing. Maybe they just want to do some false break and keep selling. you won't know.

if you can show me the indicator, pattern or set-up, anything, that prevents you taking false break outs, then you'll be a multi-millionaire this time next week.

 

[PATrader]

if you can show me the indicator, pattern or set-up, anything, that prevents you taking false break outs, then you'll be a multi-millionaire this time next week.

that's just an example. The point I am emphasizing here is , don't assume beforehand what is going to happen would go your way. But then again, if you want to play it like that, its up to you. Listening to opinions doesn't hurt you right?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

the point I am trying to emphasise is - take "time" out of the equation.

at the start of the session, floor traders don't get together and say, right, "when it's 11:36am or when Stochs cross over on a 5 minute chart or whatever, we'll do this or that.."

But, what they do pre-plan, is that "whenever price gets to a certain pre-determined level, then we'll take action ....."

"meanwhile, we'll rape the retail traders who are trading in No-Man's-Land ........."

 

[Amar431]

Sound good......

 

[Shakone]

Hey,

I will post only graphs to tell "the story", I have written the important information in them.

I still have problems with positioning a range. I mean, range bound price movements occur time to time, but I am unsure about them. Which one has the more importance regarding a possibly large breakout movement? Any suggestions?
I got a suggestion from a new member to trade reversals, but... Could you give me some hints? I really need personal experience, I have read a lot about things and every single one sounds promising... I need to trade them personally and get literally in touch with them, you know... I have traded 'strategies" that were 'fantastic' by individuals I never met and I never could discuss it with them, that is one part why I have lost so much. I have just tried things without plunging in myself deeply. I have thought this forum would maybe help me (and others) a bit, to tell the truth, I thought there were more comments from people who really know the score. Or just better than me.

You haven't said exactly what the problem you're having with the method. You're not going to get every pip, you're not going to have every trade a winner, you're going to have to accept that some will be losers as Rathcoole said.

I'd also ask you to go back to my earlier post to you. The point behind it was, what is your system. You don't have one. I know you don't have one, because you're chopping and changing, 15m, using 5m for pullback. Now you've already moved to 1m within a day. You're asking about which ranges have more potential and so on.

Get a system, clearly defined. Stick to it for a while, not one day. After a while, you'll know what's good and bad about it, and then you can think of tweaking, but still come to the market with one clear system (actually stay in demo would be better).

Now what Rathcoole said has a lot of truth in it. You can use the 1m timeframe if you wish. It may give you a better entry, or may bring your stop closer, but that also has the drawback that it may get you out prematurely. You can experiment on demo.

Nobody can tell you exactly what you should do, and you'll find lots of different opinions from people who trade differently. Rathcoole doesn't use time, I do use it. What we'd both agree on, and have both told you, is that you need to have a plan that's leaving nothing out. Everything from entry, to what market to what exit to stop loss placement, money management, what type of range you trade, what trading hours you will do it in, what you will do if there's news coming up, everything you can think of. Then you need to trade it, to see if you can reasonably trade it, and to see the pitfalls, and to learn about the results. It doesn't matter that it's not a perfect system.