Anyone here made >$1 million trading?

[Rossini]

I took a dim view of technical analysis because I wanted to provoke people into discussion.

Are you all familiar with efficient market theory?
"The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck."
I am continually learning more about the world of finance, however, the view expressed above is one which makes sense to me - and for that reason I would warn 'socomrider' and others against mistaking short term profits (like he experienced, £100 -> £200) for 'good' analysis.

The whole business of Forex "trading" shares similarities with that of online casinos - users experience some successes in the short run, they start to believe that their 'methods' are working, and pile in more money. Often it ends in tears, no?

I have not read this book, however I believe it would do many forum users some good...
Fooled by Randomness - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you believe this then why bother wasting you time posting on this forum? You already know that you can not beat the market so why try? Turning £100 into £200 is meaningless and you should not use that as an argument against TA working in the long run.



Believe what you like it does not bother me, but have you noticed that anyone who believes that the markets are so efficient it is impossible to make constant money is poor (or a failed trader). On the other hand people like Ed Saykota who do not agree with this hypothesis and constantly outperform the markets are very wealthy (and successful).



Also you are forgetting that when the market inevitably tries to take back some of the money it has let you borrow, your money management skills should save you in the long run.

 

[bnaimy]

I am getting close to that figure, but i still trade around 1-3 contracts, and just transfer the excess money to another account, keeps me on balance so i dont get crazy and start trading 30-60 contacts at a time. Cause it gets very tempting.

I think alot of people have gotten to that mark, but not many have been able to keep it here and increase it.

WIth kind regards
Bashir Naimy

 

[bnaimy]

If you believe this then why bother wasting you time posting on this forum? You already know that you can not beat the market so why try? Turning £100 into £200 is meaningless and you should not use that as an argument against TA working in the long run.



Believe what you like it does not bother me, but have you noticed that anyone who believes that the markets are so efficient it is impossible to make constant money is poor (or a failed trader). On the other hand people like Ed Saykota who do not agree with this hypothesis and constantly outperform the markets are very wealthy (and successful).



Also you are forgetting that when the market inevitably tries to take back some of the money it has let you borrow, your money management skills should save you in the long run.

I tottaly agree with you, everyone who tell you that making money everyweek on the long run is not possble is just of bull****e, if a professor tells me that its not possible, then he can eat my socks, cause it does matter what people tells you, its just the nature of people like that to bring someone else down, if their mind can imagine something then for them it means that nobody can.

If all the great people of our time would listen to people like that, then we would still be in the middle ages. Go a few hundred years back in time and tell that society would be liek this, they would call you crazy and just look at you as if u where mad.

Enough rant from me, i just hate narrow minded people, they should expand their horizon.

There is a thing my father tells me everyday, aim for the stars, that way u will at least get to the tree tops :cheesy:

Good night everyone.

WIth kind regards
Bashir Naimy

 

[hwsteele]

Hi guys,

I'm going to play the devils advocate here, right?

I doubt anyone who ever uses these forums has ever made this sum of money from Forex, or anything close. Anyone disagree?

I believe most of you have lost money, and I believe some of you have made money. However this is to be expected. Get 1000 guys to play the roulette wheel for a while, and some of them will end up with more than they started.
In the long run though - losers.

It seems that a great many people who take up Forex trading base their actions on technical analysis - looking at what the graphs , aka historical data, is telling them. I don't believe you can gain a real advantage by simply reading the graphs.

Warren Buffet says:
"I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer"

And finally, any offer of "forex training", guides or winning methods are clearly, by logic - garbage. Any man who had a truly, long term, winning strategy would be too busy counting his winnings to hand out his ideas for a few $$$. Many people who use these forums are desperate for a get-rich quick scheme, it is not surprising that the vast majority of Forex users end up losing.


Discuss.

I almost got there but my printer ran out of ink!

 

[jeffsmith]

He is a value investor. If you want to emulate Mr. Buffet then never mind about technicals. Look at how relatively cheap it is, don't use any leverage, and consider the company's long term prospects. I honestly think it is that simple.

Quite true. Long range sight actually makes the investment worthwhile.

 

[gooseman]

Taleb is worth a read even if it is just to undeerstand what he is saying and be aware of the risks in holding positions. I don't agree with the guy personally but appreciate what he is trying to say.

as for trying to beat the market, well yes but not everybody in the market knows the same thing do they?

 

[Hoggums]

The thing to learn about trading is that there will always be things other people have done that you can't. There will always be people who earn ridiculous amounts of money with apparent ease.

Personally I don't care. There's little point in thinking about what I could theoretically do if I was as successful as X. I am not that person and I don't have their insight or skills.

Don't focus on that, success comes by identifying the things that you can do well that perhaps others can't. Something that only experimentation and experience can define.

 

[Fortune500]

Are you all familiar with efficient market theory?
"The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck."

This is spouted from time to time in betting circles too. Basically it's saying that it's impossible to beat the average. Surely common sense would say this is a load of nonesense at best, and very defeatist at worst?

It's like saying that no one footballer can be better than any other because all footballers have two arms and two legs. So why has David Beckham won over 100 caps for England? Is it luck?

Statements like this are a classic example of over simplification: trying to express the nature of financial markets, business, and human emotions into a single mathematical forumla. What's the answer? 42?

 

[Fortune500]

The other things which annoys me about this hypothesis is that it converts humans into machines. After all, if everyone has access to the same knowledgebase then all humans would draw the same logical conclusions. "We are Borg."

Then again, some people like Marmite.

 

[Chorlton]

The whole business of Forex "trading" shares similarities with that of online casinos - users experience some successes in the short run, they start to believe that their 'methods' are working, and pile in more money. Often it ends in tears, no?

Well this has nothing to do with TA then but the correct use of Money Management then....

Even if your TA methods are only as good as 50% correct, if you can allow your wins to grow and cut the losses very quickly then over time you will experience a positive expectancy and come away with an overall profit. Surely?

 

[Jaydee]

Are you all familiar with efficient market theory?
"The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck."

The EM hypothesis doesn't take into account a couple of things:

Firstly, assuming all information is known by the market and, therefore, its participants; each participant still has a different perception of what that information means and consequently what 'value' is. Karl Popper's idea on reflexivity is important here where participants observation and participation in the markets influences valuation and fundamental outcomes. The analysis of all known information is subjective and imperfect, regardless of how clean and correct the information is.

Secondly, EMH works on the basis that you need to know a piece of information somebody else doesn't in order to make money in the market. As all information is priced in immediately this isn't possible - right? Well, if you believe that you need to predict and, therefore, know what is going to happen to make money - then the EMH is correct. However, trading is about odds and not certainty - you don't need to know what is going to happen in order to make money. On that basis, the EMH strong, semi-strong and weak forms are somewhat irrelevant.

 

[MikeLane2104]

I gotta agree, you don't see many millionaires sitting online blogging and posting articles on how to make money.
They sit in their villas sipping cool drinks with nubile women pampering them while their IT guy flips n flops around with his trades n data.
The only thing every gained on these sites is how to join the depressive group of no risk takers who'd rather complain about a loss than get up off their fannies and try try again.
There are many good ventures out there and if i find one i'm not gonna post it to the web i'm gonna pile my life savings into it and start villa hunting!!
Good luck with the rants!!

Life is too short to moan n graon.

MM

 

[gooseman]

the most successful traders I have ever had the fortune of coming into contact with have pretty much ruined their lives with trading and just can't stop. Lost wives, kids, houses whatever but just can't stop. It is that drive that makes them as good as they are.

Not saying you can't not be but to disregard everything in your life chasing not just $$$$ but gainign the recognition for being one very good trader.

 

[Fortune500]

I gotta agree, you don't see many millionaires sitting online blogging and posting articles on how to make money.
They sit in their villas sipping cool drinks with nubile women pampering them while their IT guy flips n flops around with his trades n data.
The only thing every gained on these sites is how to join the depressive group of no risk takers who'd rather complain about a loss than get up off their fannies and try try again.
There are many good ventures out there and if i find one i'm not gonna post it to the web i'm gonna pile my life savings into it and start villa hunting!!
Good luck with the rants!!

Life is too short to moan n graon.

MM

What's a fannie?

 

[MikeLane2104]

sorry, been working all over the world

american slang for ass

get off ur butts!!

 

[Fortune500]

sorry, been working all over the world

american slang for ass

get off ur butts!!

Phew! I thought you meant minge. :innocent:

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Haha haven't made my million yet, but the money is nice to pay for rent, food, gas, and anything else needed to live.

A realistic goal for most traders is to make enough to live comfortable and happy (having $$ for health insurance, nice car, home, heat, food, and some extras).

 

[Paddington_Bear]

The only thing every gained on these sites is how to join the depressive group of no risk takers who'd rather complain about a loss than get up off their fannies and try try again.

Life is too short to moan n graon.
MM

the most successful traders I have ever had the fortune of coming into contact with have pretty much ruined their lives with trading and just can't stop. Lost wives, kids, houses whatever but just can't stop. It is that drive that makes them as good as they are.

So what we have established is that trading is a worthless activity that will destroy our lives. The people who post on this forum are all egotistical, lazy, complaining and generally annoying. Compared with the people who succeed, who are all living in huge villas, crying about the loss of wives, children and their sanity.

Ahhhh the good life.

 

[BSD]

I am getting close to that figure, but i still trade around 1-3 contracts, and just transfer the excess money to another account, keeps me on balance so i dont get crazy and start trading 30-60 contacts at a time. Cause it gets very tempting.

I think alot of people have gotten to that mark, but not many have been able to keep it here and increase it.

WIth kind regards
Bashir Naimy

Hey there been following your other thread you've put a lot of good work in, seems you've found a good method that's making you good money.

Only suggestion I'd have is to actually do what you suggest up there, maximise the potential of your system and really keep increasing your position size with your growing account.

Using fixed fractional position sizing where you always risk 1 or 2 or 3 or whatever % of your account / trade means that you'll always stick at the same level of risk exposure percentage wise, but in absolute terms your position size grows with your account size.

There is one guy here who brought his account up to a half mill in a pretty short time span through compounding like that, and he just keeps on going.

But you're doing great as it is anyhow.

 

[BSD]

Money management by which I mean position sizing, key to the magic kingdom once you've got your system with a positive expectancy.

Some good reads here:

Money Management