Not so much a system as a confirmation

[Bill$]

The one thing that for me stands head and shoulders, no pun inrtended, above everything else on filtering my entry signals is to wait for the price after the signal bar to move outside the range of the signal bar.

If that requirment requires me to forego too many points before entry then that begs the question, if the price has moved so far off the extreme of the signal bar to the close of the signal bar, what does that tell me about potential price development?

In the eternal battle between risk and reward, you have to choose the right partner, but there is no absolute or objective right answer. Only that with which you can most comfortably work, hour after hour, day after day.

 

[Bill$]

Pullbacks along the Trend

I trade with the trend and look for pullbacks, regressions to the mean to signal a potential trading opportunity. It is when the pullback loses steam and the trend begins to reassert itself that I am prepped for entry. The basis for establishing pullback losing momentum and trend reassetting itself can be determined from any number of technical perspectives or even discretionary ones. I prefer using technical procedures and processes as discretionary trading falls foul, for me, of the Cold-Hot Gap.

 

[Bill$]

The Cold-Hot Gap

Is the difference between what you think you will do in a given situation when viewed objectively, rationally and in the cold light of day and what you end up doing when you're actually in that situation when there's more heat than light and it's all happening at once and more than you ever anticiapted.

 

[Bill$]

What is a Trend?

For me the trend is very simply where the 10 period MA is in relation to the 50 period MA. Job done.

If the 10 is above the 50 it's an upward if below it's a downward trend. When the price pushes above the 10 period MA in an up trend, I'm looking at buying. When price is below the 10 in an up trend it's regressing to the 50 period mean. When price comes to a rest on the 50 period MA I'm ready for it to either cease the pullback and start off up again, or, it'll cross down through the 50. In which case, I'll wait for the 10 to cross down and we're ready for trading short on the down trend. I've tried making it more complex than this and it's easily possible to do so and also quite unnecessary.

 

[Bill$]

The "What The Hell" Response

aka The Revenge Trade, the Double Down, the Shoot from the Hip.

You take a trade that doesn't meet your entry criteria. You get ht. What the hell, I'll show it who's boss. You take another off sheet entry. And another. If I've screwed up, I might as well screw up big time.

Don't.

Make a mistake, we all do. Don't make two just to keep the first one company. Recognise your stupidity, but don't celebrate it.

 

[superfly]

if the price has moved so far off the extreme of the signal bar to the close of the signal bar, what does that tell me about potential price development?

you seem to revere to: brake oustide local overlap (bolo) after a signal?

but Im not sure, could you post a (chart)example

regards

 

[Bill$]

Doesn't need a chart as it's simply a condition I use to verify my primary entry setup. The bar that gives me the signal has a high and a low. I need the price - within the duration of the current bar - to breach the high, for a buy, or the low, for a sell, of the signal bar for me to get in.

The part of my post you have quoted relates to the situation where the signal bar closed well off its extreme and the implications thereof. If I've been given a buy signal and the close of the signal bar is 20 points below the high, I have to 'give away' 20 points before I can confirm my entry as being valid. But for the signal bar to have closed so far off its extreme, price development is clearly lacking the momentum and intent I need to support an entry. I don’t need to dig into lower timeframes or do further analyses to confirm this. It’s black and white.

BOLO? Possibly. I’ve never really been into the standard technical analysis stuff as it all seems so hopelessly over-worked, but if that’s what it is, that’s what I use.

 

[superfly]

BOLO? Possibly. I’ve never really been into the standard technical analysis stuff as it all seems so hopelessly over-worked, but if that’s what it is, that’s what I use.

20 points lower? i suggest you scratch the last buy signal, wasnt valid, isnt it?20 points lower it can form an valid entry, on either buy or sell side i guess. is the trend still intact? Maybe slaa of db can help. I find his track the trend method on the money.


bolo, no standard tech term, my own. as you dig deeper you will find your one shorthand. no monopoly, use it to your advantage.

 

[Bill$]

20 points lower? i suggest you scratch the last buy signal, wasnt valid, isnt it?20 points lower it can form an valid entry, on either buy or sell side i guess. is the trend still intact? Maybe slaa of db can help. I find his track the trend method on the money.


bolo, no standard tech term, my own. as you dig deeper you will find your one shorthand. no monopoly, use it to your advantage.

What?

 

[Bill$]

Maybe slaa of db can help. ???

Dutch right? Maybe lettuce of db can help.

Fly, there are no mantra, no mudra and no mandala that can help. I's just you, and the price.

 

[superfly]

Maybe slaa of db can help. ???

Dutch right? Maybe lettuce of db can help.

Fly, there are no mantra, no mudra and no mandala that can help. I's just you, and the price.

Its ok be well

 

[Bill$]

Its ok be well

Thank you.

 

[Bill$]

Something I used to do when I started out was to go through each of the stocks I was interested in and check out the higher timeframes. I’d look at the monthly and try and get a view on trend and then the weekly, the daily, and so on. Multi-timeframe analysis was all the rage. Then it became essential to check out the timeframe lower than your trading timeframe as that was where all the news was building.

I’ve not found either technique provides a statistically significant edge over doing neither, with the exception perhaps of using the next higher timeframe. That does show some advantage when you trade in sympathy with the next higher timeframe. Rationale? I can only guess, but possibly to do with the fact that larger interests than my own are trading the higher timeframes and dragging mine along with in. The lower timeframes to my own are just noise. And that applies to any timeframe - which as a bare generality is a thing or rare beauty and not just a little utility.