'No indicators' revisited

[Rognvald]

If I did I wouldn't be here would I?

 

[chump]

Trying to stop drawing too many lines..channel or otherwise..as someone pointed out earlier they can be one distraction too many...so here we have the same 13 min chart 'nearly' devoid of lines and showing the more interesting areas if you see what I mean

 

[Rognvald]

Very good - I think we may just see just what you mean

 

[ford]

Damn.. what was I saying about distractions.. Just missed a good entry off that triple bottom (clearer on dow) while getting a glass of water.

 

[a320]

Again the use of wave ratio's with other pressure points nailed the 1124^4.

I just take one day at a time, I don't care which way the market goes from here. :!:
I do care about the logical points of resistance & support the market will encounter on its merry way.These pressure points give either a conforming or non -conforming signal to act upon.
CJ

AD = 39.75
BC= 79.25

50% of 79.25 =39.63

All waves will relate in geometric formation & 50% of any range is a key point in any price method.

Oh SQ9 again....
Root 1075.25= 32.79
32.79 +0.75 for the 225'=33.54
33.54* 33.54= 1124.96

Each to their own.....

CJ

 

[frugi]

Nice Wolfewave target off the triple bottom just met

 

[Finirama]

Only 3 trades for me today though there was the opportunity to pyramid or top up on the way down.

Entered the short on the lh after the 5 waves up (lh also confirmed on the Nasdaq which was lagging today). As noted earlier, could have topped up on the 6 bar sell but didn't..no reason why i didn't.

Exited and reversed to go long on the hl (again hl confirmed by Nasdaq). Got stopped out at 1119 after bounce of 1120.

I've marked a ND (negative divergence) bar. This is one where the Nasdaq pulled higher but S&P did not folow. I considered getting out but though i would wait it out..due to the stop. Is this a valid exit, i.e on ND bars? Would have banked another half a point so no biggie, but interested in thoughts.

Rentered long after reversal bar on A, figuring it would be a H&S, but ready to get out if failed to pass/reach 1120.

Exited when bar B (key reversal bar) moved lower than high of previous bar.

Overall, a very good day for me.

 

[SOCRATES]

Hmmmm. Maybe I misunderstood Socrates last post.

I've known lots of traders over the years, both good, bad excellent, and Jedi - mostly from LIFFE admittedly. One of the things that surprised me about the floor was the sheer diversity of people there - from all walks of life and corners of the globe. Admittedly the most common type was the 20-40 year old white male east ender, but still, a huge variety, and characters to match. So I dont think that there is a set personality type or character. What is necessary is both a determination and love of the activity. The money is just a by product.

I'd also point out that not all need to spend years and years learning. Some people pick it up very quickly, others struggle. Just like learning to drive. Maybe that depends on how you are taught, and how able you are to develop your own approach based on the basic teachings.

Hello BBB, what you are talking about is floor trading. Floor trading is very different to screen trading. The proof of the pudding is that any floor trader suddenly put in front of a screen
feels lost. This is because with the exception of highly developed reflex everything else
required of the screen trader is different.

Slogging away is not the answer, as I have repeatedly intimated. it requires something more.

Many individuals cannot give more, not because they don't want to or don't try, but because
they are wired differently, therefore they dont have it in the first place to give.

When I try to explain this, which is so abstract and so intangible, but basic really, those that have the qualities required recognise in themselves what they have.

The others who do not have them can become nasty and even abusive. I promise you it is true because I have experienced it myself, and this can be very unpleasant ands distressing I assure you.

This is not my fault or that of my Star Chamber Keyholders.

Therefore one is forced to submerge, but this is not fair either to genuine aspirants, who are honourable and decent, respectful educated and polite, in short, normal civilised people.

So it is a knife edge situation, of one that one can get weary of over time. The question is how long.

If you take a leaf out of the Livermore book, you will read how he had to isolate himself in the end in his office with his blackboard and his chalkboys, because everytime something happened he was blamed for it.

He went through a phase during the depression, of taking absolutely every single phone call from every idiot who blamed him for the crash, and tried politely to explain how none of it could be his fault...but this is not what poeple want to hear. He was forced to return to self imposed isolation.

I have had to suffer today diabolical disrespect from a beginner. And the blighter, instead of recognising his behaviour is unacceptable, begins to argue, can you imagine. So I am leaving him to his own devices, of slogging, which takes us back to slogging not being the answer and it becomes a loop discussion, i.e., one that has no ending. It really is sad.

 

[SOCRATES]

Hi SOCRATES,

Thanks really.

May I ask when you would like to go live if you have not done so today? If you would like to go live in a day soon, can it be after 3rd June? I truly wish to take part in such an invaluable opportunity, but am unable to do it live until after 3rd June.

Please let me know the specific time. Many thanks indeed.

You will be advised by private route in good time, I promise.

 

[clylbw]

Hi,

The attached chart summarises my 2 trades today; the pink lines indicate entries, and the blue lines signal exits.

It is not that my trading and entry/exit techniques are so good they can be shown here; the truth is far away from that. What I would like to say is, both the trades were done with techniques learnt from this thread, or more specifically, from all of you who have kindly shared your knowledge and experience. The trades were not perfect and I am not an expert at trading, but I have benefited a lot from the price-actions-only trading, and would like to continue to work towards this direction.

So this post is in fact for all those who, like me, are non-experts and/or have just started. Price-actions-only trading may be unsuitable for some, and it has been frustrating to find the right method for myself. But when I do find it, I simply know that is it as I feel like back home, which was exactly what I felt when I came cross this thread, the door to the Dark Side. And all the effort has been worthwhile.

 

[ford]

Only 3 trades for me today though there was the opportunity to pyramid or top up on the way down.

Entered the short on the lh after the 5 waves up (lh also confirmed on the Nasdaq which was lagging today). As noted earlier, could have topped up on the 6 bar sell but didn't..no reason why i didn't.

Exited and reversed to go long on the hl (again hl confirmed by Nasdaq). Got stopped out at 1119 after bounce of 1120.

I've marked a ND (negative divergence) bar. This is one where the Nasdaq pulled higher but S&P did not folow. I considered getting out but though i would wait it out..due to the stop. Is this a valid exit, i.e on ND bars? Would have banked another half a point so no biggie, but interested in thoughts.

Rentered long after reversal bar on A, figuring it would be a H&S, but ready to get out if failed to pass/reach 1120.

Exited when bar B (key reversal bar) moved lower than high of previous bar.

Overall, a very good day for me.

I'm not sure about divergences, not my thing, but from a few technique I've learned from Skimbleshanks and sandpiper (question mark remains whether I'm applying apply it correctly ) gave me a reason to short it.

Small double top, and a doji bar with a burst of volume, which as sandpiper and Skimbleshanks pointed out is the 'big boys' holding the price (price and volume bars circled). Works well on the breakouts, like off of the triple bottom that I missed getting a drink.

Sadly it was a scratch and reverse, who cares though, it went back up.

edit: Also, on the 30 minute it looked like the small double top could have been the 3rd point of a 1-2-3. You can bank more on the larger 1-2-3's as Skimbleshanks pointed out in this post a few months back.

 

[clylbw]

You will be advised by private route in good time, I promise.

Thanks.

 

[Finirama]

Thank you Ford. Another technique to add to the do's.

 

[china white]

a Q if I may

dear Skim and Socrates,

i hope u don't mind if I ask u a Q to clarify a bit of a cobweb in my mind as u obviously r much further than me along the road of volume readings.

I am attaching a 2 min chart of today's action. The blue line on the volume study is 3 ma of volume - which is essentially normalised 6 min bar volume - similar to 5 min readings that most of the ppl here, I believe, r using for volume readings.

My confusion lies here:

Assume we have a number of tops. Where is the optimal volume-based point of fading the rally - when the volume spikes r decreasing from one top to another and u short the highest price but lowest volume top (low participation of the bulls on the last thrust) OR when volume spikes r increasing and u fade the last top with buying climax?

U will see that early in the day (pink line) fading the buying climax is the best thing u cud do. However, on all further moves, the best point to go against the preceeding price action wud be fading lowest volume final thrusts, so to speak (green lines). My guts as an ex-OTC trader wud be to fade buying climax, when u get 20 calls from your clients on all your phone lines jumping out or plain shorting. However, I am seeing plenty of examples to the contrary.

many thx in advance!

 

[ford]

Thank you Ford. Another technique to add to the do's.

No problem.. Also for reference to the original posts regarding that technique can be found here. http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?t=9849

 

[SOCRATES]

dear Skim and Socrates,

i hope u don't mind if I ask u a Q to clarify a bit of a cobweb in my mind as u obviously r much further than me along the road of volume readings.

I am attaching a 2 min chart of today's action. The blue line on the volume study is 3 ma of volume - which is essentially normalised 6 min bar volume - similar to 5 min readings that most of the ppl here, I believe, r using for volume readings.

My confusion lies here:

Assume we have a number of tops. Where is the optimal volume-based point of fading the rally - when the volume spikes r decreasing from one top to another and u short the highest price but lowest volume top (low participation of the bulls on the last thrust) OR when volume spikes r increasing and u fade the last top with buying climax?

U will see that early in the day (pink line) fading the buying climax is the best thing u cud do. However, on all further moves, the best point to go against the preceeding price action wud be fading lowest volume final thrusts, so to speak (green lines). My guts as an ex-OTC trader wud be to fade buying climax, when u get 20 calls from your clients on all your phone lines jumping out or plain shorting. However, I am seeing plenty of examples to the contrary.

many thx in advance!

Dear China White,
Let us break this question up into easier morsels, because you are asking several questions at the same time, whereas probably you and I can multitask on this others cannot.

The first concept for you to grasp that will really help you not only with this problem which is a classic but to empower you to when similar scenarios develop is as follows:~

A flexible relationship exists between price behaviour and volume, and not a rigid one.

I will explain further:~

It does not necessarily mean for example(and it does not matter at this stage what the instrument is) that for a given advance of volume the price will move a certain amount.

It does not necessarily mean that for a given volume value the price will progress a certain
amount, meaning in essence that if that volume value were doubled in the next bar the price should necessarily double its progress also.

In other words the relationship is not fixed because of the introduction of variants that affect this ratio, (I am going to end up writing a textbook here in the end you will see~no, I'm kidding) If a fixed relationship did exist on a push pull basis that could be identified, it would be the case, but it is not. Why not ? Let us see~

First of all market conditions fluctuate. They have to fluctuate because the market cannot be boiling all the time. It cannot be busy all the time. It cannot be moderately active all the time.
It cannot be subdued all the time. It cannot be very quiet all the time. It cannot be extrememely quiet all the time. It cannot be inactive all the time. The only time the market can be guaranteed to be inactive is when it is closed. In other words the nature of market activity itself requires that there should be variety in the nature of changes in intensity and quantity . This variety appears random. It is particularly distinctive in markets that are not developed, that is they become totally unpredictable because these changes are so radical as to be extreme, which is what happens in markets that are illiquid.
Very close study over many years will show you it is not. This is the first priciple of alternation, with regard to volume.

Secondly the responses to these changes are not the same on every occasion. The market may be said to be thin. What does this mean ? It really means more than one thing and is therefore confusing to practitioners of trading, and to forecasters.
When a market is thin, it means not only that there are few participants and that activity is low,
it may also mean that there is not much stock about to be had. Therefore taken in conjunction with what I have just explained above, consider the effect on a thin market of sudden demand, or of sudden supply. The greater the sudden arrival the greater the effect on prices, out of proportion to the volume. Hence the fact that the relationship that exists between volume and price is further complicated.

Thirdly the exchanges are apt to play tricks. I am sure you will have experienced a breakdown
in data transmission coincidentally when a significant move is in the offing only to be resumed after the event. Some datafeeds lump the volume on the first bar announced, thinking it is a help to kwow, notwithstanding the break in transmission, how the price has jumped or slumped in the interim and what volume was attributable. As you have OTC experience you can best appreciate the significance of the obvious.

Fourthly, as if all this was not complicated enough, there is the problem of DVD , which is even worse because it places the wrong volume under the wrong bar and distorts everything.

It couldn't get worse could it ? Because the implications are that all this screws up the harness.
That is why in the darkest dark of the star chamber all data is free of harness. The consequences are twofold. I will explain further :~

Volume is the result of activity. It is the result of price action.

But,

Conditions can exist in which volume assumes a character of its own, that is, instead of
volume being the consequence of price change, the arrival of volume causes price changes.
In other words, volume may be causative or subjective !
Therefore in the same way as activity is subject to alternation, so also the effect of volume
will alternate between being causative and subjective.

Now we are getting closer to the nitty gritty.

At or around tops, volume, depending on what hat it is wearing, may be causative or subjective.
Tops may have lo vol that lead to collapses, They may have hi vol that lead to collapses.

The key to the whole riddle is to tune in to the intent. The intent is hidden by the factors of
price and volume. The top traders know this. Therefore they are able to manipulate the perceptions of the unskilled. You have to train yourself to use every faculty of your reasoning and intuittion to accurately pinpoint which of these several combinations are in force.
This comes with time, it is a skill that is difficult to explain.

During wartime morse code was used extensively to send and receive coded messages
by wireless telegraphy as sounds comprising dots and dashes. The operators at HQ had
listened for so long to morse messages that they acquired a skill level of detection in which
they were able to identify the sender of morse code by the sender's "style" or "pulse".

That is what you have to strive to perfect with volumetric problems.

This explains the problems that you are facing that confuse you.

Can I ask you whether you are consistenty trading one instrument or more?

If you vary from instrument to instrument you will end up being very confused indeed.

You have to start by specialising in a particular instrument in order to get "the beat" , in order
for you to acquire the correct model upon which to build your proficiency at reading the market.
Then you can progress to othe instruments and you will then be able to distinguish the difference between one and another. Each one has a footprint, what in code cracking is called a crib. You must work at grabbing the crib before you can progress. You cannot just jump in and arrive at conclusions without doing this very tedious and laborious and long work first.

Now you can see the reasons why you are baffled. There are two questions you ask but there are two answers to each question. Intent is the key. I respectfully suggest you spend a lot of time just watching because it is the only way. Eventually, if you posess the correct faculties
of being what we call a visual mathematician, suddenly to your astonishment it will talk to you in a way you are not able to describe or explain to others readily, because it is experiential and facultative, and ultimately not mechanical.

 

[china white]

Socrates - sorry ok I'll try to explain in simpler terms.

a bit of background - just to explain where i am coming from on this - i used to trade UK techs of that Bookham technologies, Autonomy, Geo Interactive (now Emblaze) sort where u just know where to short the rally or buy the sell-off just because all your phone lines start ringing at the same time Then if u know your guv will cover for u, u do some front running, if u know he won't u jump on the tail - and u know 20 more chaps in the City r doing the same - so at the end of the day u almost always fade the volume climax (contributing to it yourself )

However since I became "an adventurer of independent means" I am noticing loads of set-ups when say u have 3 higher tops with volume spikes dying out - and the smallest volume highest price top is the happy days short. This is perhaps the only single bit that prevents me from entering the world of darkness

I know u must be smiling now and saying to yrself - this is not just cobweb, this is some bloody old Medieval sort of cobweb in me mind Any input will be much appreciated.....

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates - sorry ok I'll try to explain in simpler terms.

a bit of background - just to explain where i am coming from on this - i used to trade UK techs of that Bookham technologies, Autonomy, Geo Interactive (now Emblaze) sort where u just know where to short the rally or buy the sell-off just because all your phone lines start ringing at the same time Then if u know your guv will cover for u, u do some front running, if u know he won't u jump on the tail - and u know 20 more chaps in the City r doing the same - so at the end of the day u almost always fade the volume climax (contributing to it yourself )

However since I became "an adventurer of independent means" I am noticing loads of set-ups when say u have 3 higher tops with volume spikes dying out - and the smallest volume highest price top is the happy days short. This is perhaps the only single bit that prevents me from entering the world of darkness

I know u must be smiling now and saying to yrself - this is not just cobweb, this is some bloody old Medieval sort of cobweb in me mind Any input will be much appreciated.....

Oh ! Dear ! But you see what I am getting at. In your dealing room you not only had the crib, but you also had backup and the noise. Here there is silence, no backup, no noise. It is a different game plan. If I may give you some advice. NO, private message better. OVER.

 

[Quercus]

Thanks all, for more interesting comment and food for thought.
Fordy - many thanks for those links - I somehow missed all those and greatly appreciate the new info on volume!
Cheers
Q

 

[china white]

Socrates, many thx for such detailed explanation.

What u said "At or around tops, volume, depending on what hat it is wearing, may be causative or subjective. Tops may have lo vol that lead to collapses, They may have hi vol that lead to collapses" was exactly what i was suspecting . I really think I shud watch the volume patterns on ES (which is 80% of what i am trading now) longer and more closely to be able to master them to perfection. MY PSYCOLOGICAL PROBLEM is that I tend to view any set of volume bars as if they pertained to some illiquid UK tech stock - where I fully agree the game is completely different.

Well I hv to admit mastering the price action was loads easier - since it is the same thing for ES and Beckham Technologies . Well - as I said many times - my hat off 2 u dark siders and I will not rest until I am fluent in your language

In the meantime, many thx for your input and help.... my path in trading has perhaps bn very different from yours, but I am sure the roads to perfection eventually converge....