NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne

[stiltskin]

Started off well this morning with +40 pips took a lunch break and then kept getting stopped out almost wiping the winnings out. Ended up + 8 pips for the day. (Thanks for those anyway).
There were 6 or 7 same colour candles in a row on the GBP/USD M15 chart and I was buying with the alerts at the alert prices but was getting stopped out, also on another pair and the 20 points took away my small wins.

I am only using £1 a point and sometimes take half when there is 5 point profit and move the stop up to BE when I can.

I was considering having a much wider stop so that I could add another £1 in the next 15 M candle, not sure if that would have been better than being stopped out again and again.

I really could do with a few pointers if anyone has the patience.

This thread is huge so I typed out important notes and printed them out and having a look at them just now I see I have been ignoring the first rule.
"Only trade if there is a 1, 2, 3 semafor on the current or previous H1 candle. No exceptions". Because I was getting buy/sell alerts while viewing M15 charts I was acting on them without checking to see if there was a semafor on the H1 candle. (still worked well this morning).

So should I be ignoring the buy/sell alerts that pop up if there is no semafor on the H1 chart?
On EUR/USD ignoring the 1am and 3am when I was in the land of nod there were only 2 H1 candle semafors, one at 8am and the other at 5pm.

GBP/USD was a bit better with four, 10am, 11am 3pm and 4pm.

Should I stick rigidly to only considering a trade if there is a semafor on the current or previous H1 candle?

If the above criteria is met then I assume I still need to wait for the candle to cross the light blue (long) or pink (short) dotted line on the M15 chart before entering a trade, is that right?

 

[TheRumpledOne]

EURUSD hit target.

 

[unn]

TRO, Question about the zone:

I have never heard "zone" term before, so my question may be naive. In one of your posted AAPL charts you show the gap up open. There are red dashed lines below that, i assume those are at 10-20 Cents below the open price. Now, based on "Fade the open" you would short AAPL if price goes into the red zone? Correct? You also show two blue lines just above the open line which i assume is at 10-20C above the open, this is the "go long" zone. Do you mean that if the price goes above the open instead of going down, you would actually go long in the blue lines (Is'nt "fade the open" in this case only mean short and no long). Thanks for explaining.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

========================= ====================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, <insert your own adjective>), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

TRO, Question about the zone:

I have never heard "zone" term before, so my question may be naive. In one of your posted AAPL charts you show the gap up open. There are red dashed lines below that, i assume those are at 10-20 Cents below the open price. Now, based on "Fade the open" you would short AAPL if price goes into the red zone? Correct? You also show two blue lines just above the open line which i assume is at 10-20C above the open, this is the "go long" zone. Do you mean that if the price goes above the open instead of going down, you would actually go long in the blue lines (Is'nt "fade the open" in this case only mean short and no long). Thanks for explaining.

If you are FADING THE GAP, then in your example you would only trade SHORT when price moves DOWN into the SHORT ZONE ( red lines ).

If you are using THE BUY ZONE / MILK THE COW entry, then you would go long when price moves UP into the BUY ZONE( blue lines ) and go short when price moves DOWN into the SHORT ZONE ( red lines ).

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) Red candle closes

3) Green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) Enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."


<-------------------------------------------------------------------->


MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

This is how you make 2% per day.
<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

This is how you make 2% per day.
<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

This is how you make 2% per day.
<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

This is how you make 2% per day.
<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[wyichc]

THE RAT ADAPTS

Q) What happens when you combine the DAILY BUY ZONE with the RAT REVERSAL on a daily chart?

A) More cheese!!

On a Daily (D1) chart.

1) Red candle closes

2) Green candle closes

3) Go long at the Daily BuyZone trigger

4) STOP LOSS is 10 pips

5) Take whatever profit you can

6) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

Remember, the RAT only turned left because the RAT "adapted" to it's environment. That is what is happening here - ADAPTATION.

Works for RED rats, too.

On a Daily (D1) chart.

1) Green candle closes

2) Red candle closes

3) Go short at the Daily BuyZone trigger

4) STOP LOSS is 10 pips

5) Take whatever profit you can

6) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

Hi RumpledOne,

Have enjoyed your posts on this forum, thanks for the input you give.

A quick question, in your above system, you talk about entering at the daily buy zone trigger. Am I right to assume this is the end of the wick of the last candle?

Many thanks

Ian

 

[TheRumpledOne]

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

========================= ====================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, <insert your own adjective>), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

This is how you make 2% per day.
<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method. You can even use SQUIGGLYS for your entry trigger!

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

This is how you make 2% per day.
<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method. You can even use SQUIGGLYS for your entry trigger!

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

THINK ABOUT IT!!

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

This is how you make 2% per day.
<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method. You can even use SQUIGGLYS for your entry trigger!

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

THINK ABOUT IT!!

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.