NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne

[viennatrader]

RESULTS.

“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden

Thanks for this example!
It shows clearly what I tried to communicate in my earlier post.

If someone looks at the twelve 5-min bars within 17:00 and 18:00 it gets pretty obvious that the end/beginning of the hour is interesting and has to be watched.

One GreenRat LONG followed by a RedRat SHORT good for at least 10 pips within 10mins each.

If I could just DO what I SEE all the time

 

[TheRumpledOne]

“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

 

[TheRumpledOne]

RESULTS.

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) red candle closes

3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Thanks for this example!
It shows clearly what I tried to communicate in my earlier post.

If someone looks at the twelve 5-min bars within 17:00 and 18:00 it gets pretty obvious that the end/beginning of the hour is interesting and has to be watched.

One GreenRat LONG followed by a RedRat SHORT good for at least 10 pips within 10mins each.

If I could just DO what I SEE all the time

If you are trading both long and short, you are NOT a RAT, you are a YALE STUDENT!!



"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

Pg 64 - HOW WE DECIDE

 

[viennatrader]

If you read

HERE

and work the exercises, you just might SEE PRICE for the first time.

Since your thread over there vanished: Is there a chance to get that post somehow? The whole thread would be even better.

 

[viennatrader]

Test message 09:57

 

[viennatrader]

I was about asking if there is a chance to catch the post you mentioned here

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/day...r-lose-again-therumpledone-70.html#post573550

If I try to directly reply to the post, I get the message that my reply will be checked by the mods. I guess that is because in your message #556, Nov 21 2008, 12:39 AM there is a link to another forum.

 

[viennatrader]

If you are trading both long and short, you are NOT a RAT, you are a YALE STUDENT!!

Pg 64 - HOW WE DECIDE

I am sorry, that I made you post this again.

Last night I was reading one of your post on another forum dealing with exactly the same question like mine. I instantly thought "SH*T, now he is going to call me a Yale Student, and I do not deserve anything better!"

Sorry again, and thanks for taking the time, I really appreciate this because I want to learn to SEE!!

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

 

[TheRumpledOne]

I am sorry, that I made you post this again.

Last night I was reading one of your post on another forum dealing with exactly the same question like mine. I instantly thought "SH*T, now he is going to call me a Yale Student, and I do not deserve anything better!"

Sorry again, and thanks for taking the time, I really appreciate this because I want to learn to SEE!!

http://www.yale.edu/admit/freshmen/application/index.html

 

[TheRumpledOne]

RESULTS.

Not every trade is a winner. The entry prior to the big run was a losing trade. By sticking with the method and taking the next entry, the loss was recovered and then some.

 

[viennatrader]

USDCAD

Entry 1.02500 Limit
Mental Stop 1.02400

Exit 50% 1.02530
Exit 50% 1.02530

Market was very slow. I am not used to that pair. So I closed the trade +3

While I type it reached 1.02600.
The max. drawdown was -4

 

[viennatrader]

Good morning !

Todays trades so far.

 

[viennatrader]

Now waiting for USDCAD setup

 

[viennatrader]

Now waiting for USDCAD setup

Okay, that came from nowhere, but ....

 

[viennatrader]

Now waiting for GBPUSD setup

 

[viennatrader]

Hmm, a fast 35 pip drop.
First green bar went 10 pips up.
If I take the trade I will go for a few pips only, because I think they will test the low again.

 

[viennatrader]

Now waiting for GBPUSD setup

Wow, market is so fast I have to decide posting further or trading.
The long was good for max. 6 pips.
As supposed they came back fast.
By the time I was in the trade and took 4 pips the max drawdown was -2 pips

 

[viennatrader]

I really wonder what to do with such situations.

Staying on the sidelines and sitting on my hands is probably the smart decision, BUT what am I looking for to get my hands on the keyboard and bring myself back to the game?

 

[TheRumpledOne]

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY