NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne

[TheRumpledOne]

Yes but if you had logged on after the price went through 0.6400 you would not be in a trade. You might have entered at 0.6425 according to your rules- would this have profited also?

Do you recall I mentioned using COMMON SENSE?

The average range over the last 120 H1 bars is 53.27 pips. PRICE had moved 54 pips already. DO YOU THINK ENTERING AFTER 54 IS A STATISTICALLY SOUND MOVE?

If you look at the chart, you can see my TRO RANGE EZ P2 indicator that shows how many bars it is using ( 120 ),the average range ( orange 53.27 ), current range ( green 54 ), what percentage of average range that current range is ( 101% ), bars above / below average range ( purple 40 / 80 ) , bars above / below current range ( blue 34 / 84 ) , and maximum / minimum range ( brown 143 / 17 ).

But to answer your question, YES! In this case, you would have had the opportunity to take a profit.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

New hour/candle so...

SEE GREEN CANDLE.

SEE GREEN CANDLE AT 0.6425

GO LONG.

SEE PROFIT.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

I really do NOT understand.

I am showing you a method that is HIGHLY PROFITABLE.

I am showing you in REAL TIME as best I can.

But for some reason, SOME PEOPLE are hung up over something that has NOTHING TO DO WITH TRADING.

What is the reason they are trying to KILL THE MESSENGER?

What is the reason they don't want you to learn how to trade this method?

What are they offering that is better for your portfolio?

You do NOT need to buy ANYTHING from me or anyone else to use this method. So what is their issue with me?

DO YOU SEE SOMETHING WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?

 

[zupcon]

What is the reason they are trying to KILL THE MESSENGER?

The problem is that you arent really giving them a method at all, and perhaps more importantly, you are quite clearly avoiding providing the information that they seek to verify your own results.

I would suggest that its probably best if you invite doubters to your paltalk room, and make some live calls, and tell em where the stops are, and tell them when your exiting trades. They can watch you for a few day, and draw there own conclusions.

For quite obvious reasons, retrospective calls dont really cut it on a trading forum (not that you could call T2W a trading forum..but I digress) There seams to be a few interested in what you have to say, so why not invite them to watch the action as it unfolds in real time ?

 

[trendie]

People have mostly been brought up on standard indicators, so its difficult to make the effort to adopt an entirely new method of looking at things.

Another issue is the use of your pretty overlays. Perhaps what you need to do is strip them away, and just show the 00, 25, 50, 75 lines.
And then list the step-by-step rules for defining a good trade.
EDIT: this would remove the complaints that you are just selling indicators, even though they are free.

I cant recall if you have defined the stop-loss and take-profit rules. simply saying "see the profit"
doesnt mean much, as we dont know how many pips it is, so its difficult to quantify effectiveness, especially in context of the stop-loss.

The last trade, although looks promising, contradicts your earlier post of
"... The average range over the last 120 H1 bars is 53.27 pips. PRICE had moved 54 pips already. DO YOU THINK ENTERING AFTER 54 IS A STATISTICALLY SOUND MOVE? ...."
EDIT: the last 2 green bars go from 0.6375 to over .6475, a 100-pip move.

The idea of round numbers appears sound, and there have been variations on it.

but dont forget traders ultimately will find their own way, and should be left to their own devices.
good luck with it.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

The problem is that you arent really giving them a method at all, and perhaps more importantly, you are quite clearly avoiding providing the information that they seek to verify your own results.

I would suggest that its probably best if you invite doubters to your paltalk room, and make some live calls, and tell em where the stops are, and tell them when your exiting trades. They can watch you for a few day, and draw there own conclusions.

For quite obvious reasons, retrospective calls dont really cut it on a trading forum (not that you could call T2W a trading forum..but I digress) There seams to be a few interested in what you have to say, so why not invite them to watch the action as it unfolds in real time ?

What? You're kidding, right?

What is the reason you say this is NOT a method? I have spelled out the steps along with chart after chart in as close to REAL TIME as possible. Besides, you know the what the entry is BEFORE it happens. I don't need to call it out.

What information do you think I am NOT providing? I have listed the entry rules. I have listed the rules of thumb. It's funny that you say I am NOT providing information because many people are making money using what I have provided. Please feel free to ask specific questions POLITELY like this person did:

Traders Laboratory - View Single Post - Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne

People are more than welcome to stop by my FREE PalTalk chat room, the TWO PERCENT CLUB.

 

[JTrader]

00 25 50 75 can just as easily and often lead to a reason to reverse, and not a reason to enter in the previous direction....

 

[UKtradergirl]

I really do NOT understand.

I am showing you a method that is HIGHLY PROFITABLE.

I am showing you in REAL TIME as best I can.

But for some reason, SOME PEOPLE are hung up over something that has NOTHING TO DO WITH TRADING.

What is the reason they are trying to KILL THE MESSENGER?

What is the reason they don't want you to learn how to trade this method?

What are they offering that is better for your portfolio?

You do NOT need to buy ANYTHING from me or anyone else to use this method. So what is their issue with me?

DO YOU SEE SOMETHING WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?

Would you please refrain from shouting so much when you type?

You sound like one of those evangelical preachers you see on TV thumping their bibles and shouting 'hallelujah'. Is it necessary to be so... dramatic?

You never answered my previous questions about when to cut losses (aka stoploss) or when to take profit.

Please don't see my posts as an assault on you. I am merely trying to clarify things in my head about how your system works. Please also take any other comments in the lighthearted manner intended.

 

[JTrader]

Would you please refrain from shouting so much when you type?

You sound like one of those evangelical preachers you see on TV thumping their bibles and shouting 'hallelujah'. Is it necessary to be so... dramatic?

You never answered my previous questions about when to cut losses (aka stoploss) or when to take profit.

Please don't see my posts as an assault on you. I am merely trying to clarify things in my head about how your system works. Please also take any other comments in the lighthearted manner intended.

Someone with something to hide, expresses vagueness, and then uses their aggression to fend off prying, potentially exposing questions, and then tries to protect their position by launching a verbal assault of sorts & make you seem as the unreasonable one for asking etc. in an attempt to make you "back off" as you may be getting too close to the truth..........It is a highly offensive, simple yet sophisticated way of playing the victim, rather than the aggressor, wolf in sheeps clothes etc.

A bully will often use similarly unreasonable methods. Basically trying to make it look like, and make you think you are wrong and unreasonable, when in fact it is the opposite!

It is a form of psychological projection. Maybe deflection would be a better word...

 

[zupcon]

What? You're kidding, right?
What is the reason you say this is NOT a method? I have spelled out the steps along with chart after chart in as close to REAL TIME as possible. Besides, you know the what the entry is BEFORE it happens. I don't need to call it out.

I understand what you are doing, its a methodology, not a system, and thats fine. HOWEVER there are a bunch of people who dont understand, and they have asked specific questions, but as yet have not recieved answers.

What information do you think I am NOT providing? I have listed the entry rules. I have listed the rules of thumb. It's funny that you say I am NOT providing information because many people are making money using what I have provided. Please feel free to ask specific questions POLITELY.

My only concern was the method regarding the identification of consecutive candles, you've pointed out that you are not identifying consecutive candles but specific patterns. I may run some stats later and take a closer look to evaluate if those patterns yield an edge, I suspect they wont, and I suspect that you are probably also aware of that, otherwise you would trade the pattern in a systematic way, rather than relying on a discretionary edge.

People are more than welcome to stop by my FREE PalTalk chat room, the TWO PERCENT CLUB.

Hopefully they'll find the information there that they seek

 

[UKtradergirl]

Just joined the paltalk room but not much going on in there at this moment.

Also followed the link as advertised in paltalk to kreslik.com - Traders Community :: Home Page Made me smile (but i won't tell you why you'll have to guess- if i say i'll get shouted at).

 

[TheRumpledOne]

People have mostly been brought up on standard indicators, so its difficult to make the effort to adopt an entirely new method of looking at things.

Another issue is the use of your pretty overlays. Perhaps what you need to do is strip them away, and just show the 00, 25, 50, 75 lines.
And then list the step-by-step rules for defining a good trade.
EDIT: this would remove the complaints that you are just selling indicators, even though they are free.

I cant recall if you have defined the stop-loss and take-profit rules. simply saying "see the profit"
doesnt mean much, as we dont know how many pips it is, so its difficult to quantify effectiveness, especially in context of the stop-loss.

The last trade, although looks promising, contradicts your earlier post of
"... The average range over the last 120 H1 bars is 53.27 pips. PRICE had moved 54 pips already. DO YOU THINK ENTERING AFTER 54 IS A STATISTICALLY SOUND MOVE? ...."
EDIT: the last 2 green bars go from 0.6375 to over .6475, a 100-pip move.

The idea of round numbers appears sound, and there have been variations on it.

but dont forget traders ultimately will find their own way, and should be left to their own devices.
good luck with it.

Trendie, thank you for your polite post.

You are correct, most traders were indoctrinated and brainwashed with "standard indicators". They were also taught to believe there is a FIXED SPREAD.

So you would prefer the chart above? NO PROBLEM. But, sooner or later, someone will ask for the indicator that plots those lines, too! It has happened before.

STOP LOSS and TAKE PROFIT. STOPS are a function of RISK. If you really think about it, the STOP is built into the method:

IF H1 CANDLE IS GREEN AT THE LINE GO LONG.

IF H1 CANDLE IS RED AT THE LINE GO SHORT.

If you are long at 0.6400 and price drops to 0.6375 then the candle should be red and your worse case SL = 25. Let's say the candle opened at 0.6395. The candle turns RED at 0.6394. How long would you stay LONG if the candle is RED when the rules say to trade WITH THE COLOR OF THE CANDLE? Would you stay in for 5 or 10 pips? Would you stay in for 5 or 10 minutes?

Perhaps your risk management and money management give you a 20 pip SL. So maybe you stay in the trade until PRICE drops to 0.6380.

Perhaps you see price make a lower low on a M5 or M15 chart and decide it's time to bail.

Perhaps you use a combination of all the above to decide when to stop.

Does that help?

Thanks again for being polite.

 

[UKtradergirl]

I understand what you are doing, its a methodology, not a system, and thats fine. HOWEVER there are a bunch of people who dont understand, and they have asked specific questions, but as yet have not recieved answers.



My only concern was the method regarding the identification of consecutive candles, you've pointed out that you are not identifying consecutive candles but specific patterns. I may run some stats later and take a closer look to evaluate if those patterns yield an edge, I suspect they wont, and I suspect that you are probably also aware of that, otherwise you would trade the pattern in a systematic way, rather than relying on a discretionary edge.



Hopefully they'll find the information there that they seek

What's all this about patterns? He never said anything about looking for patterns in his rules earlier... he just said draw horizontal lines at prices ending in 00, 25, 50, 75... go long if the candle is green, go short if the candle is red (or pink and purple if you prefer like me).

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Someone with something to hide, expresses vagueness, and then uses their aggression to fend off prying, potentially exposing questions, and then tries to protect their position by launching a verbal assault of sorts & make you seem as the unreasonable one for asking etc. in an attempt to make you "back off" as you may be getting too close to the truth..........It is a highly offensive, simple yet sophisticated way of playing the victim, rather than the aggressor, wolf in sheeps clothes etc.

A bully will often use similarly unreasonable methods. Basically trying to make it look like, and make you think you are wrong and unreasonable, when in fact it is the opposite!

It is a form of psychological projection. Maybe deflection would be a better word...

Just because YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND does NOT mean that I am vague.

I answered the stop question here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/equities/41916-never-lose-again-therumpledone-17.html#post565202

and here:


Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne - Page 8 - Traders Laboratory

 

[zupcon]

What's all this about patterns? He never said anything about looking for patterns in his rules earlier... he just said draw horizontal lines at prices ending in 00, 25, 50, 75... go long if the candle is green, go short if the candle is red (or pink and purple if you prefer like me).

One of his set ups discussed earlier relies on the identification of consecutive candles, the theory being this indicates a potentially overbought or oversold condition. My point was that his method of determining the number of consecutive candles differed from that generally used in conventional statistics.

With respect to opening trades at certain levels, he also relies on statistics to filter these trades. He's stated that if a move has already exceeded the average range then he wont enter, so there's a little bit more to the method than waiting for price to cross a line.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

00 25 50 75 can just as easily and often lead to a reason to reverse, and not a reason to enter in the previous direction....

That's true to a point.

However, if you take average range into consideration, price usually crosses at least one line far enough to give you the opportunity to take profit.

I have been posting AUSUSD charts. The average range over the last 120 H1 bars is 53 pips. 53 > 25. Price has to cross at least one line by 28 pips on average. There were 40 H1 bars with a range above average and 80 H1 bars with a range below the average.

If you study the range at each hour, you will know which hours usually have the greatest range. But that's another discussion topic.

If you take the trade at the first line that PRICE meets chances are you'll have an opportunity to take profit.

Thank you for being civil.

P.S. I like the BRUCE LEE quote in your signature.

 

[rols]

Just because YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND does NOT mean that I am vague.

I answered the stop question here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/equities/41916-never-lose-again-therumpledone-17.html#post565202

and here:


Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne - Page 8 - Traders Laboratory

I suspect TheRumpledOne is a company - how can one individual, post so much on so many sites 24/7?

My other observation is that TRO is obviously a quick and capable programmer. So why does he not automate his "NEVER LOSE AGAIN" strategy, make his fortune and give the WWW a respite from his bombardment?

Because as Zupcom so adroitly pointed out earlier, his system is based on faulty logic and also requires a liberal dose of discretion. Yes DISCRETION that irritating thing which takes many years and much agony to perfect. He wants us to believe this work can be bypassed by a TRO shortcut to instant riches.

Welcome to fool's paradise......

 

[UKtradergirl]

I have just spent a little time in the chat room in Paltalk speaking with TRO. He answered my questions and cleared up some things for me.

I just wanted to say that he isn't as bad as he comes across in text! When you speak to him directly it is much easier to understand what is going on and he has explained two of his 'strategies' to me.

The way i understand it:.

1. Psychological Trade
Draw lines on the chart at every price point that ends in 00,25,50,75. If the hourly green candle passes through one of these points, go long. If the hourly red candle passes through one of the points go short. Grab some profit at around 5 pips, move the stop on the rest of the trade to break even (if any trade still open that is).

2. Reversal Trade
After three green hourly candles look out for a reversal. Go short after 5-10 minutes into the formation of the next candle, only if it is showing a reversal. Opposite is true for long trades.


Speaking to TRO, it appears the stops and take profits are very discretionary, or if he has a system it is not plain and clear to me. If you were to take on board the above then you would need to already be fairly good at reading charts, and/ or have a definite plan on board for money management.

Whether or not these are good strategies i am not sure. I'll go away and have a little look and if they do prove to be profitable i will certainly incorporate them into my own trading. What i found a little disconcerting at first is the fact that we are looking at hourly charts, yet TRO talks about taking 5, or 10 pips profit (more in line to what i would expect off a 1 minute chart).

This guy doesn't come across great in text, and his mass posting campaign doesn't go far in helping him either- but he is an OK sounding fella when spoken to in Paltalk.

So, here ends my pursuit to discover what an earth is going on in this thread. I have answers now and am a happy bunny . (i'm one of those people that can't bear not knowing something).

Thanks TRO for taking the time to talk to me. Best of luck in your trading.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

One of his set ups discussed earlier relies on the identification of consecutive candles, the theory being this indicates a potentially overbought or oversold condition. My point was that his method of determining the number of consecutive candles differed from that generally used in conventional statistics.

With respect to opening trades at certain levels, he also relies on statistics to filter these trades. He's stated that if a move has already exceeded the average range then he wont enter, so there's a little bit more to the method than waiting for price to cross a line.

Actually, the number or consecutive candles is NOT about identifying overbought / oversold conditions per se. It's just pure statistics.

Nor am I filtering trades. You want to enter the trade at the first line it meets, that's just common sense. To enter later is just chasing price.

If you turn on your computer and you see price has crossed a line already, then just WAIT. You'll get another opportunity, I promise.

There really isn't much more to it than what I have stated.

Thank you for being civil.

 

[UKtradergirl]

I suspect TheRumpledOne is a company - how can one individual, post so much on so many sites 24/7?

My other observation is that TRO is obviously a quick and capable programmer. So why does he not automate his "NEVER LOSE AGAIN" strategy, make his fortune and give the WWW a respite from his bombardment?

Because as Zupcom so adroitly pointed out earlier, his system is based on faulty logic and also requires a liberal dose of discretion. Yes DISCRETION that irritating thing which takes many years and much agony to perfect. He wants us to believe this work can be bypassed by a TRO shortcut to instant riches.

Welcome to fool's paradise......

I agree that this way of trading is not as mechanical as TRO would have us believe, we get plenty of ideas for choosing a direction to trade in but the rest is left to discretion (from what i can see).