Long USA 500
Net P/L -186 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2138.8
Close Rate 2136.94
Open Time 9/21/2016 2:21 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 2:36 PM
Stop loss: a bit below the lowest low to the left of green arrow
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at -1 R
Comments
Second legitimate loser. Price broke through support but only slightly. Then it retraced so I took a long position. After that price went down even further and broke support harder... you see that afterwards price did indeed go up again. Idea was good, but stop too tight??? The system seems to be right most of the times so perhaps a wider stop is an idea? Or only take positions that broke decently through support? I think my best trades where when it broke though support decently. So that is something I have to define and would have turned this loser into a big winner.
Net P/L -186 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2138.8
Close Rate 2136.94
Open Time 9/21/2016 2:21 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 2:36 PM
Stop loss: a bit below the lowest low to the left of green arrow
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at -1 R
Comments
Second legitimate loser. Price broke through support but only slightly. Then it retraced so I took a long position. After that price went down even further and broke support harder... you see that afterwards price did indeed go up again. Idea was good, but stop too tight??? The system seems to be right most of the times so perhaps a wider stop is an idea? Or only take positions that broke decently through support? I think my best trades where when it broke though support decently. So that is something I have to define and would have turned this loser into a big winner.
Short USA 500
Net P/L -112 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2137.44
Close Rate 2138.56
Open Time 9/21/2016 3:13 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 3:24 PM
Stop loss: slightly above the (mistakenly thought of as previous) support level
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at -1 R
Comments
I thought a trend had formed where I indicated it. Last trade with a trend worked ou, however, in my preperation for the day there was no support resistance back then so I had to draw trend lines. Now there were S&R lines. In my mind it was breaking throught support too much and thought this was not just a fluctuation. Obviously I was wrong. This is why you need a plan with a clear definition, else your mind will start to see things that aren't there. If I had not drawn trend lines I probably would have gone long at the bar right before the red arrow resulting in a good winner. A rule could be to only take into account trends if I am not able to draw S&R levels for the day.
Net P/L -112 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2137.44
Close Rate 2138.56
Open Time 9/21/2016 3:13 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 3:24 PM
Stop loss: slightly above the (mistakenly thought of as previous) support level
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at -1 R
Comments
I thought a trend had formed where I indicated it. Last trade with a trend worked ou, however, in my preperation for the day there was no support resistance back then so I had to draw trend lines. Now there were S&R lines. In my mind it was breaking throught support too much and thought this was not just a fluctuation. Obviously I was wrong. This is why you need a plan with a clear definition, else your mind will start to see things that aren't there. If I had not drawn trend lines I probably would have gone long at the bar right before the red arrow resulting in a good winner. A rule could be to only take into account trends if I am not able to draw S&R levels for the day.
Short USA 500
Net P/L -249 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2140.57
Close Rate 2143.06
Open Time 9/21/2016 3:45 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 3:53 PM
Stop loss: slightly above previous high
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at -1 R
Comments
Yeah I was probably overtrading at this point. Yes the signal was there but I already missed almost half the down move... Then price went back up again and I reasoned now I had a better entry position... were it not that price was moving up
IT IS BETTER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SELECTIVE THAN THE OTHER WAY AROUND. I don't have to act on every signal and don't have to catch every move. If circumstances aren't great I should let it pass. But this is good, this is why you in fact need a well defined plan
Net P/L -249 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2140.57
Close Rate 2143.06
Open Time 9/21/2016 3:45 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 3:53 PM
Stop loss: slightly above previous high
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at -1 R
Comments
Yeah I was probably overtrading at this point. Yes the signal was there but I already missed almost half the down move... Then price went back up again and I reasoned now I had a better entry position... were it not that price was moving up
IT IS BETTER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SELECTIVE THAN THE OTHER WAY AROUND. I don't have to act on every signal and don't have to catch every move. If circumstances aren't great I should let it pass. But this is good, this is why you in fact need a well defined plan Short USA 500
Net P/L +276 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2141.94
Close Rate 2139.18
Open Time 9/21/2016 4:11 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 5:21 PM
Stop loss: slightly above previous highest high
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: adjusted stop loss got hit at +1.2 R
Comments
Closed the day with a winning trade. I missed an even bigger part of the fall of price as you can see. I moved my stop loss as price was nearing support and that got me stopped out. Then again, there was another level drawn on my preperation at 2131.20. Eventually it broke through the support again and went straight to 2131.20. Funny to see that price indeed hesitated at 2137.94. Also funny that price stopped falling at yet again a level I previously defined. Charts start to make sense to me. There IS meaning in them.
A rule could be that if I drew multiple levels S&R on preperation chart I should not put my SL too narrow and let profits (hopefully) run more. This alone would have turned this day into a profitable one instead of a losing one (even though I made some mistakes that certainly can be avoided in the future). For the first time I have the feeling I am really on to something and this all is making sense.
Before I was identifying patterns and just acting upon those without taking into consideration the context and the bigger picture.
In the weekend I think I will put down a well defined plan based on what I am doing now and start trading according to what I defined there.
Net P/L +276 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2141.94
Close Rate 2139.18
Open Time 9/21/2016 4:11 PM
Close Time 9/21/2016 5:21 PM
Stop loss: slightly above previous highest high
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: adjusted stop loss got hit at +1.2 R
Comments
Closed the day with a winning trade. I missed an even bigger part of the fall of price as you can see. I moved my stop loss as price was nearing support and that got me stopped out. Then again, there was another level drawn on my preperation at 2131.20. Eventually it broke through the support again and went straight to 2131.20. Funny to see that price indeed hesitated at 2137.94. Also funny that price stopped falling at yet again a level I previously defined. Charts start to make sense to me. There IS meaning in them.
A rule could be that if I drew multiple levels S&R on preperation chart I should not put my SL too narrow and let profits (hopefully) run more. This alone would have turned this day into a profitable one instead of a losing one (even though I made some mistakes that certainly can be avoided in the future). For the first time I have the feeling I am really on to something and this all is making sense.
Before I was identifying patterns and just acting upon those without taking into consideration the context and the bigger picture.
In the weekend I think I will put down a well defined plan based on what I am doing now and start trading according to what I defined there.
Preparation for 23-09-2016
Long USA 500
Net P/L -198 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2165.8
Close Rate 2163.82
Open Time 9/23/2016 2:49 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:30 PM
Stop loss: slightly below the orange arrow
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts. But I notice now wrongly.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
The orange arrow represents where I would have entered if I didnt make a mistake drawing the Support line. The one I drew on the preparation chart is not the red one but the green one. This would have made for a much better entry. Also, assuming the red line was correct, the range of S&R is too narrow to be trading this. THe breakout through support probably not deep enough. Need to take all of this into account when I devise my plan. Another thing I didn't do was move my SL along with price (trailing). I read somewhere that it is a bad thing to do ... it might get you stopped out prematurely like in one of my examples posted earlier.... then again sometimes you lose less or even have a small profit instead of a loss. This all depends on your system and needs to be tested I guess. My feeling is that its better to move it along with current system.
The red arrow also coincides with market opening in USA, that means more volatility so I should take this into account too when devising a plan
Long USA 500
Net P/L -198 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2165.8
Close Rate 2163.82
Open Time 9/23/2016 2:49 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:30 PM
Stop loss: slightly below the orange arrow
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts. But I notice now wrongly.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
The orange arrow represents where I would have entered if I didnt make a mistake drawing the Support line. The one I drew on the preparation chart is not the red one but the green one. This would have made for a much better entry. Also, assuming the red line was correct, the range of S&R is too narrow to be trading this. THe breakout through support probably not deep enough. Need to take all of this into account when I devise my plan. Another thing I didn't do was move my SL along with price (trailing). I read somewhere that it is a bad thing to do ... it might get you stopped out prematurely like in one of my examples posted earlier.... then again sometimes you lose less or even have a small profit instead of a loss. This all depends on your system and needs to be tested I guess. My feeling is that its better to move it along with current system.
The red arrow also coincides with market opening in USA, that means more volatility so I should take this into account too when devising a plan
options-george
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hey dr safari!
Again, it's amazing that you are so diligent with your posts here - well done mate!
Documenting your thoughts and observations in this manner must be really helpful
in formulating your strategy. It obviously takes time, but it's worth the effort.
dbphoenix shared some really good tips on testing/developing a system (see post#5 on that thread) - you might have already read it - but it's really good info to keep in mind whilst developing your strategy
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/futures-options/215662-manual-backtesting.html#post2749488
Keep up the super effort!! And good luck!!
Again, it's amazing that you are so diligent with your posts here - well done mate!
Documenting your thoughts and observations in this manner must be really helpful
in formulating your strategy. It obviously takes time, but it's worth the effort.
dbphoenix shared some really good tips on testing/developing a system (see post#5 on that thread) - you might have already read it - but it's really good info to keep in mind whilst developing your strategy
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/futures-options/215662-manual-backtesting.html#post2749488
Keep up the super effort!! And good luck!!
Thanks, I do my best. Last couple of days I have been slacking but then again it is super busy at work for the moment so it's not that I don't want to keep being productive
Yes, I have already read it, good stuff indeed!
Same to youKeep up the super effort!! And good luck!!
Still documenting the 23-09-2016 trades
Long S&P500 (Previously where I used USA it was also this, was copy/pasting data from my broker)
Net P/L -2.11 points (Here I also used wrong terminology. My broker uses two decimals behind the point even though the ticks have less granularity but for simplicity reasons I will keep this style of documenting)
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2165.43
Close Rate 2163.32
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:36 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:42 PM
Stop loss: Somewhere in the beginning of the bar where the red arrow is.
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
Pretty much the same comments as last trade. Right after usa market opened so more volatility which means a higher chance that your setup (wrongly) gets triggered. In this case it was going down but then spiked up triggering my setup but then quickly went down again. Got suckered into volatility play here. Of course the narrow range thing still applies here too.
Long S&P500 (Previously where I used USA it was also this, was copy/pasting data from my broker)
Net P/L -2.11 points (Here I also used wrong terminology. My broker uses two decimals behind the point even though the ticks have less granularity but for simplicity reasons I will keep this style of documenting)
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2165.43
Close Rate 2163.32
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:36 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:42 PM
Stop loss: Somewhere in the beginning of the bar where the red arrow is.
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
Pretty much the same comments as last trade. Right after usa market opened so more volatility which means a higher chance that your setup (wrongly) gets triggered. In this case it was going down but then spiked up triggering my setup but then quickly went down again. Got suckered into volatility play here. Of course the narrow range thing still applies here too.
Still documenting the 23-09-2016 trades
Long S&P 500
Net P/L -1.36 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2164.06
Close Rate 2162.7
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:42 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:45 PM
Comments
Pretty much same ****, too much volatility, I placed the trade right after the previous losing one. Went up a bit but then went down again, SL too narrow for this one too else could have made some profits if trailing SL was put in place.
Long S&P 500
Net P/L -1.36 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2164.06
Close Rate 2162.7
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:42 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:45 PM
Comments
Not going to post a chart anymore because pretty much same ****, too much volatility, I placed the trade right after the previous losing one. Went up a bit but then went down again, SL too narrow for this one too else could have made some profits if trailing SL was put in place.
Next and last trade I took that day:
Long S&P 500
Net P/L -2.48 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2163.68
Close Rate 2161.2
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:59 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 7:01 PM
Comments
I would say this one is the only "legitimate" loss of the day. But again I opened at 4pm and if the SL was trailing it would have resulted in some profit. I think this strategy does not lend itself well to not adjust your SL fast (even though I once missed out on a big win because of it I don't think it compensates enough, and then there is the negative psychological effect of losing too often) . Market was still rather volatile even after it was open for 30min.
Conclusion of that day is: I should not have traded near market opening BUT even if I did and used a trailing SL I could have made small profit
No trades this week because it is assgrabbingly busy at work. It's weird though, I feel like I haven't been trading in like forever. Hopefully next week or sooner I can get at it again.
Long S&P 500
Net P/L -1.36 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2164.06
Close Rate 2162.7
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:42 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:45 PM
Comments
Pretty much same ****, too much volatility, I placed the trade right after the previous losing one. Went up a bit but then went down again, SL too narrow for this one too else could have made some profits if trailing SL was put in place.
Long S&P 500
Net P/L -1.36 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2164.06
Close Rate 2162.7
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:42 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 3:45 PM
Comments
Not going to post a chart anymore because pretty much same ****, too much volatility, I placed the trade right after the previous losing one. Went up a bit but then went down again, SL too narrow for this one too else could have made some profits if trailing SL was put in place.
Next and last trade I took that day:
Long S&P 500
Net P/L -2.48 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2163.68
Close Rate 2161.2
Open Time 9/23/2016 3:59 PM
Close Time 9/23/2016 7:01 PM
Comments
I would say this one is the only "legitimate" loss of the day. But again I opened at 4pm and if the SL was trailing it would have resulted in some profit. I think this strategy does not lend itself well to not adjust your SL fast (even though I once missed out on a big win because of it I don't think it compensates enough, and then there is the negative psychological effect of losing too often) . Market was still rather volatile even after it was open for 30min.
Conclusion of that day is: I should not have traded near market opening BUT even if I did and used a trailing SL I could have made small profit
No trades this week because it is assgrabbingly busy at work. It's weird though, I feel like I haven't been trading in like forever. Hopefully next week or sooner I can get at it again.
Two losing trades again on 29-09-2016
At first I felt bad about them but now that I am journaling them I can see my mistakes very clearly again. And that's why I am doing this. This way I can come up with a plan that DOES work.
Long S&P500
Net P/L -1.76 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2164.56
Close Rate 2162.8
Open Time 9/29/2016 10:51 AM
Close Time 9/29/2016 11:30 AM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
There were a lot of levels that could be S&R. The mistake I made was to take the entry and hope that it bounces off of the 2166.20 level instead of the 2164.94 level as it did now. In my to be formed plan I could include something that would prevent me to take a trade with a too narrow range (even IF there is a higher or lower S&R line with sufficient range)
Where I placed the orange dot would have been a good entry and also according to my setup, but this was a big move down... I noted earlier that those seem to be the best setup, and now it's confirmed again. And as you can see it bounced off the 2164.94 level again. Those are lines drew beforehand, not in hindsight. I know this is the way to go, I just need to pour it into a working trading template now.
At first I felt bad about them but now that I am journaling them I can see my mistakes very clearly again. And that's why I am doing this. This way I can come up with a plan that DOES work.
Long S&P500
Net P/L -1.76 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2164.56
Close Rate 2162.8
Open Time 9/29/2016 10:51 AM
Close Time 9/29/2016 11:30 AM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
There were a lot of levels that could be S&R. The mistake I made was to take the entry and hope that it bounces off of the 2166.20 level instead of the 2164.94 level as it did now. In my to be formed plan I could include something that would prevent me to take a trade with a too narrow range (even IF there is a higher or lower S&R line with sufficient range)
Where I placed the orange dot would have been a good entry and also according to my setup, but this was a big move down... I noted earlier that those seem to be the best setup, and now it's confirmed again. And as you can see it bounced off the 2164.94 level again. Those are lines drew beforehand, not in hindsight. I know this is the way to go, I just need to pour it into a working trading template now.
Long S&P500
Net P/L -2.23 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2162.8
Close Rate 2160.57
Open Time 9/29/2016 1:32 PM
Close Time 9/29/2016 2:04 PM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
Better trade as previous one, but even still, only a range of 2 points... AND most importantly, taking a position while price is already within the range!!! My best trades have been when price was still outside the range, something to consider .
No trades today cause again too busy at work.
Net P/L -2.23 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2162.8
Close Rate 2160.57
Open Time 9/29/2016 1:32 PM
Close Time 9/29/2016 2:04 PM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low
Entry based on the chart posted in the preparation posts.
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
Better trade as previous one, but even still, only a range of 2 points... AND most importantly, taking a position while price is already within the range!!! My best trades have been when price was still outside the range, something to consider .
No trades today cause again too busy at work.
I finally analysed all my try out trades and came up with a best plan of execution aka a trading plan:
New Trading Plan
Preperation
--------------------
At the beginning of the month draw S&R lines for previous month
At the beginning of the week draw S&R lines for previous week, also include monthly if in range
At the beginning of the day draw S&R lines for previous day, also include weekly if in range
When you cannot draw any S&R for that day (only horizontal lines) there are no trades for that day.
Setup
-----------------
- range of 3 points or more (unless range + Maximum Range Outbreak >= 5 points)
- MRO >= 1
-Look for taking a position when there is a MRO >=1 and a Range of >=3 (unless range + Maximum Range Outbreak >= 5 points)
Entry
--------------
-When price reverses from Maximum Outbreak Position (MOP) for at leat 0.4 points take a position in that direction.
-Do not take position anymore if Difference position entry and maximum breakout position is more than 60% of the Range.
-Put a trailing stop loss 0.1 points above/below MOP
-When price is within 10% of other S&R level move the SL 0.1 points from current price
-Do not take position first half hour of market opening
Exit
----
-Exit position at end of day or automatically when SL is hit.
Definition of range:
[Still to add]
Definition of Maximum Range Outbreak (MRO):
[Still to add]
Definition of Maximum Outbreak Position:
[Still to add]
P.S.: I will add the definition of these concepts I brought to life for my trading plan
New Trading Plan
Preperation
--------------------
At the beginning of the month draw S&R lines for previous month
At the beginning of the week draw S&R lines for previous week, also include monthly if in range
At the beginning of the day draw S&R lines for previous day, also include weekly if in range
When you cannot draw any S&R for that day (only horizontal lines) there are no trades for that day.
Setup
-----------------
- range of 3 points or more (unless range + Maximum Range Outbreak >= 5 points)
- MRO >= 1
-Look for taking a position when there is a MRO >=1 and a Range of >=3 (unless range + Maximum Range Outbreak >= 5 points)
Entry
--------------
-When price reverses from Maximum Outbreak Position (MOP) for at leat 0.4 points take a position in that direction.
-Do not take position anymore if Difference position entry and maximum breakout position is more than 60% of the Range.
-Put a trailing stop loss 0.1 points above/below MOP
-When price is within 10% of other S&R level move the SL 0.1 points from current price
-Do not take position first half hour of market opening
Exit
----
-Exit position at end of day or automatically when SL is hit.
Definition of range:
[Still to add]
Definition of Maximum Range Outbreak (MRO):
[Still to add]
Definition of Maximum Outbreak Position:
[Still to add]
P.S.: I will add the definition of these concepts I brought to life for my trading plan
Long S&P500
Net P/L -2.10 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2157.8
Close Rate 2155.7
Open Time 10/3/2016 2:29 PM
Close Time 10/3/2016 2:38 PM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low (MBO)
Entry and exit, green and red line:
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
No remarks regarding to the trade. I took it according to my plan but didn't work. The only thing I could finetune in the future is that I need the retracement from the MOP to be a certain percentage of the MBO range instead of a solid fixed 0.40 minimum.
Net P/L -2.10 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2157.8
Close Rate 2155.7
Open Time 10/3/2016 2:29 PM
Close Time 10/3/2016 2:38 PM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low (MBO)
Entry and exit, green and red line:
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit at - 1 R
Comments
No remarks regarding to the trade. I took it according to my plan but didn't work. The only thing I could finetune in the future is that I need the retracement from the MOP to be a certain percentage of the MBO range instead of a solid fixed 0.40 minimum.
Long S&P500
Net P/L +1.51 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2152.56
Close Rate 2154.07
Open Time 10/3/2016 4:03 PM
Close Time 10/3/2016 4:59 PM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low (MBO)
Entry and exit, green and red line:
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit at + 0.6 R
Comments
I was AFK when this trade closed itself due to a trailing stop loss. Seems to have been a good exit point too. Around it's peak I probably would have moved it closer because at that point it was a nice profit already. However that is not part of the plan so I will indeed just let it trail as I did now UNLESS it reaches an S&R line.
Net P/L +1.51 points
Amount 1 Contracts
Opening Rate 2152.56
Close Rate 2154.07
Open Time 10/3/2016 4:03 PM
Close Time 10/3/2016 4:59 PM
Stop loss: Near the previous lowest low (MBO)
Entry and exit, green and red line:
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit at + 0.6 R
Comments
I was AFK when this trade closed itself due to a trailing stop loss. Seems to have been a good exit point too. Around it's peak I probably would have moved it closer because at that point it was a nice profit already. However that is not part of the plan so I will indeed just let it trail as I did now UNLESS it reaches an S&R line.
