Merlin (TMG) trading system

[mr_cassandra]

I know the guys who created this and their work is similar to mine in that it is an excel sheet with visual basic commands. Beyond that though, their focus om shorter time frames yield a lot more than my own work.

http://www.themerlingroup-inc.com/

Their results were so far ahead of my own work (mvpsignalsystem), I put my own work on the back burner and now use their signals.

 

[RunTheNumbers]

This pay for signals service has a discussion board at Investorshub and in the information box you can find a link to where their signals are tracked at www.collective2.com

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=7383

http://www.collective2.com/go/tmg

Their results were so far ahead of my own work (mvpsignalsystem), I put my own work on the back burner and now use their signals.

Can you trade qqqq on spreadbetting platforms?

regards

Ben

 

[mr_cassandra]

Morning Ben

I don't honestly know. I've seen subscribers there talk about options and futures but not spread betting. qqqq is the nasdaq 100 exchange traded fund if thats any help. I'm still working with proshares etf's with 2x leverage and may do some options on the next signal.

Can you trade qqqq on spreadbetting platforms?

regards

Ben

 

[mr_cassandra]

Collective2.com seems to be adding features

I like how they showcase worst losers as well as winners.

This pay for signals service has a discussion board at Investorshub and in the information box you can find a link to where their signals are tracked at www.collective2.com

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=7383

http://www.collective2.com/go/tmg

Their results were so far ahead of my own work (mvpsignalsystem), I put my own work on the back burner and now use their signals.

 

[mr_cassandra]

New website

http://www.themerlingroup-inc.com/

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=7383

http://www.collective2.com/go/tmg

Collective2 provides an independent audit of real time signals.

 

[mr_cassandra]

Spreadbetting

Since you originally asked me, I've seen at least 2 subscribers mention they are doing this in the TMG forums. I think I also saw someone say it can't be done in the USA.

Can you trade qqqq on spreadbetting platforms?

regards

Ben

 

[mr_cassandra]

More audited trades now at C2 site

http://www.themerlingroup-inc.com/

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=7383

http://www.collective2.com/go/tmg

Collective2 provides an independent audit of real time signals.

also Trading Faq section has just been updated. To any/all interested parties, please review all the entires at the TMG site 'trading faq' link. The table at the top is a table of contents by subject, click any subject and it will go directly there.

 

[kreks]

Merlin Magic

Merlin's got the last 11 days in row correct, which is impressive given the volatility. I know the system had a rough patch a couple of months ago but I think that's behind it. There's a forum where all the subsribers and system developers chat and all the guys are pretty genuine - some modifications were made to the system recently which has put it back on a very profitable track. I'd suggest people take another look at this system.

also Trading Faq section has just been updated. To any/all interested parties, please review all the entires at the TMG site 'trading faq' link. The table at the top is a table of contents by subject, click any subject and it will go directly there.

 

[mr_cassandra]

I agree

The independently audited results at www.collective2.com/go/tmg will allow anyone to confirm what you just said. As a fellow system designer I was saddened but not surprised at the raft of bad comments posted when they hit a rough patch. Just as sadly, I doubt those people will come back and say how nicely the system has recovered.

No matter what people say or how much they are cautioned, I think most people enter systems thinking every trade will be a winner and there will never be drawdowns.

No system can do that
Life does not do that.

If they can't grasp the larger picture of eventual stairsteps upward, they will be doomed to angriliy roaming the internet, seeking something that does not exist.

On the other hand, you are a breath of fresh air in that you have watched the entire cycle then made a conclusion.

Also, I beleive the chart at C2 is qqqq alone, and 2X funds would have been better.

 

[the blades]

Steve,

I thought (but aren't sure) that C2 already assumed 2X margin for these types of systems.

As an aside, do you still commit all your funds to Merlin or have you "hedged your bets" at all?

Cheers,
UTB

 

[mr_cassandra]

Mornin

I'll have to check, you could be right. The latest trade at C2 I see them working with 2680 shares of qqqq at 46.26 which comes out to $123,967

Their gain of $3135 comes out to 2.5%. It appears they are working with their original 100,000 starting figure and these results are 1X numbers.

As to my own money, heres the rundown. You probably know from my other posts that I have my program called mvp signal system (m)clellan,(v)ix,(p)utcall ratio

I put it on the back burner months ago because merlins results were so far ahead of mine. Back then, it was obvious to me my returns were hobbled by mt IT perspective (weeks to months). merlin goes days to weeks at most.

In their yahoo group Jerry is very open about the various factors he looks at, as I am about components of my own program. I think he feels, like I do, that discussion of components is not giving away the farm because most people are unwilling to do the hundreds of hours of work it takes plus are victims of the immense amount of negativity that grail discussion groups routinely generate.

However, by osmosis, I began to see abit of what he was talking about and retrofitted some concepts to mvp. In so doing I greatly increased the number of trades while working within the framework of my own original buy signals.

Long story short, it still ain't no merlin but produces far more than it used to. So, at this point If mvp is in cash, I throw all into merlin, if mvp has a signal I go 50/50.

 

[the blades]

Thanks Steve,

I've noticed you on various other forum's and enjoy reading your posts.

Re Merlin, I'm not as convinced as you are that curve fitting isn't at work to some degree (yes, I'm partially brainwashed ) and remain on the sidelines, for now.

Cheers,
UTB

 

[mr_cassandra]

re curve-fitting

I understand the concept but always struggle with putting it in proper perspective. My initial thoughts were as follows.

1. their back test covered 21 years
2. those 21 years happened to encompass the historic nasdaq bear mkt 2000-2003, the dot com mania bubble circa 1999 as well as all manner of normal bull, and trading range mkts.
3. lastly, it switches positions so frequently

Given the above I struggle how the concept of curve-fit could have been accidentally or coincidently right over all the many varied situations which were supposed to be tested in the first place.

There are many good concerns posted about mechanical systems but I feel the struggle is to keep them in perspective as originally intended. Some seem to take on a life of their own, far beyond the original intent.

This analogy is a leap but a true story. I have seen boards at motley fool where they were very worried about mutual fund managerment fees.

I have literally seen people who would choose an 11% return and 1% fee over a 15% return with a 2% fee. They had become so religiously wrapped up in fee analysis they no longer understood that 15 less 2 is 13 and 11 less 1 is 10. True story.

(excerpt from an email to another poster I talk with) I think in conversing with me you've probably gotten a fair sense of who and what I am as a person. I have to be honest with you that I'm finding internet grail discussion groups (as a whole) to be a source of a lot of negative or doubting thomas type views, almost as if they'd like to talk about systems but are not very happy if someone actually comes up with one.

I don't think its deliberate but more a symptom of humanity in general. I've been listening to a lot of audio on that motivational stuff called the secret. In truth they are saying the same thing as any minister, IE God wants you to succeed but this earth is full of the other spirit, which wants everyone to fail. The successful people they interview all end up saying the same 3 things.

1. You can achieve a lot more than you think by believing it. There are no limits to what we can do save those which society , the media and our fellow man supply.
2. But to get there you can't just sit in your living room and wait for it to happen, you need to take action, any action and it doesn't have to be perfect.
3. You will never get anywhere with points 1 and 2 unless you confront the fact that the world is full of negative people and beliefs, all of which will slow you down and stymie your efforts. You must see and break this barrier.

One compelling real life example is Bill gates. Early on he asked IBM if they wanted to partner with him on Windows. true story, they said no they thought it had no future.

Long before the movie, I knew Howard Hughes story. When the govt backed out of his spruce goose airplane project, he said fine I'll do it myself. he finished it and flew it.

In 1929, the crash bankrupted my grandfathers construction business. he refused to go bankrupt and eventually paid everyone off and was rich again when he died in 1966. He left me my original nest egg.

You can see this on the boards in how rarely you see people say 'I have reservation X bout your idea but have a constructive suggestion Y to help with it'.

Another way to ferret this out is take each person who rears up with an objection and ask if they have a better idea or system, either theirs or someones to point to. If they don't, you may be dealing with someone who exists just to bring up negative counterpoints. They may be someone who, unlike you or me, hasn't succeeded at working up something on their own, or doesn't have enough confidence to try others ideas.

I watch some of them hounddog Drew in amazement. What about this, whatabout that? Almost as if they don't see his work doing far better than their own . I suspect he has found like I have, you need to focus on pushing forward and let all the naysayers go their own way. He seems like a very positive man.

I started to post my signals at Hg then thought about it this weekend, why am I jumping thru hoops to prove to some dude who will never believe anyway, what I'm doing? He was never there for the 1000's of hours of work I've one, nor would he do it himself.

I know you do the work, so does Drew, so do the merlin guys. But I suspect we are all working in a very negative environment in general. For each of us, believing we can succeed is far more powerful than worrying how many negative people per day can rear up.

Years ago, when I knew less about this aspect, a guy ran me around the maypole because his vix numbers were off by .001 from mine. he contended vehemently that it might invalidate my whole sheet. I (stupidly) took 4 hours to code in all his changes.
NO CHANGE, like I told him in the first place. He was a famous anti-virus researcher, but unable to understand that .001 was terribly meaningful in his world, and totally irrelevant in mine. Back then I hadn't yet learned that many objections come from people who have never done one system of their own. Like the fat old man yelling at the quarterback on TV, they never were even on the field in their life.

I am already making money while these guys say it can't be done. I suspect many of them are like this in all the other parts of their life. They may be unhappy with their jobs, their future etc and enjoy pointing out an endless litany of possible problems, backed up by no work of their own. I will make future mistakes and I will fix them.

Many folks were quite quick to post negative comments at C2 in feb-Mar, but ask yourself, where are they now? Its the same problem Dan, they are not honest enough or don't have enough overall perspective to make a comment now. They were happy to grouse and move on.

Me? I say drive AROUND them, Concentrate on people like yourself, Drew, merlin, who DO the work. Keep the focus on succeeding.

 

[the blades]

yep, you never disappoint

Let's hope Merlin continues to prove you correct.

Cheers,
UTB

 

[Science Trader]

The independently audited results at www.collective2.com/go/tmg will allow anyone to confirm what you just said. As a fellow system designer I was saddened but not surprised at the raft of bad comments posted when they hit a rough patch. Just as sadly, I doubt those people will come back and say how nicely the system has recovered.

No matter what people say or how much they are cautioned, I think most people enter systems thinking every trade will be a winner and there will never be drawdowns.

No system can do that
Life does not do that.

If they can't grasp the larger picture of eventual stairsteps upward, they will be doomed to angriliy roaming the internet, seeking something that does not exist.

On the other hand, you are a breath of fresh air in that you have watched the entire cycle then made a conclusion.

Also, I beleive the chart at C2 is qqqq alone, and 2X funds would have been better.

Well, I think part of the reason that subscribers got disappointed, was that expectations were set really high. TMG posted backtest results on the C2 systems page, saying:
"Average annual returns since 2000 have been in excess of 160%" and "2006 back tested returns of ~ 197.55%"
The real-life results shown on C2 for the first 6 months were just 20%, and some disappointment among subscribers should be expected. I'm not saying that TMG isn't a promising system. I just think that posting backtested results, in order to convince subscribers to sign up before a decent C2 track record is build, might work against a vendor if real-life results don't match the backtested results.

Another thing is that TMG mentioned that "Utilizing the new 2X Long and Short ETFs (QLD & QID), returns could be significantly increased". Before the 10% drawdown that seemed indeed an attractive option as the equity curve looked very smooth. I guess some subscribers were caught off-guard that they couldn't really stomach a 20% drawdown (using QLD/QID).

 

[mr_cassandra]

Good points all

Like my own work, their results track the vix very closely, so the higher the volaitility on agiven year, the higher their return.

So, even when you use annualized results formulas, you are still reflecting those very high vix years.

My own work produces 1/4 as much % return in a low vix year 2006 as a high one 2000-2002

I think you're right about what you say affects what people expect. Because of that I always post the failure rate with any type of signal genetaed by my program to try and mitigate overdone expectations.

I still hold to what I mentioned though, why haven't everyone who rushed to judgement on merlin come back and said 'it appears I was wrong ' as the equity curve shifted back up.

The question is rhetorical, I deeply understand the negativity that is endemic in society and life. From the doubts that plagued any religious icon to what happens today, we are an interesting race. Unless we see the programmed negativity and drive around it, we are doomed to be constantly stymied by it. Imagine if Bill gates had let Ibm's negativity on windows discourage him.

 

[mr_cassandra]

More ruminations

I've watched this live with my own work and merlins. I can tell you with assurance that no matter what most people say, or how clearly they are advised about losers and drawdowns, they inwardly expect almost no losers or drawdowns.

You can see this not by what they say but what they do, when they happen. Unfortunately the internet exacerbates this as seen in the comments you'll see about 'gosh that system missed another 1.5 points' or it missed the bottm by 2 days'. This foolishness makes people think its actually possible to get every point of every move. This then becomes a meme preventing them from recognizing that 2/3 of every move can get you a lot of money.

Even 1/2, 1/3. The mkts fluctuate a lot every year, far, far more than the underlying fundamentals would dictate. It is capturing the movement that generates the profit.

 

[mr_cassandra]

I just re-read this message and have to agree. In my own work, when publishing results, I have confined myself to only stating what I have done in real-time, documented at my free yahoo group. Even though I have a 10 year backtest sitting here, I have avoided mentioning annualized results for the same reason you pointed out. Its my working theory that one can prove anything they want with real-time results and there will be only two possible outcomes, either it proves what you say in backtest or something goes wrong.

 

[mr_cassandra]

for those keeping track, merlin broke out to an all time high this week. Over the past year I've watched countless detractors pronounce their program 'broken' because of a bad trade. Those people are doomed to wander forever, looking for a perfect system, that does not exist.

 

[Hittfeld]

for those keeping track, merlin broke out to an all time high this week. Over the past year I've watched countless detractors pronounce their program 'broken' because of a bad trade. Those people are doomed to wander forever, looking for a perfect system, that does not exist.

C`mon Steve, that`s just plain not true. Merlin is a backtested method, that is ALWAYS In and trading strictly NDO only. And so the.computer at C2 does.

The developers have changed parameters a couple of times, don`t trade strictly NDO, advise to go cash..... seems to be a bit of a mess. And one of the "detractors" is famous mr_cassandra, isn`t he, Steve?

The problem is not Merlin (though more than 25 subsignals???), but the noise (and always righteous, unfriendly comments) created by its publishers.

Regards

Hittfeld