Market Summary and Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

[MahiFX]

The usd/jpy regains a 107 handle on improved risk sentiment (107.26 highs).

Market Summary

The dollar was broadly firmer against its peers in Fridays trade. The JPY was a notable underperformer, whilst the GBP bounced from its 1.6030 lows to close largely unchanged at 1.6100 (highs 1.6126). Improving risk sentiment and rallying equities (Dow +1.63%, S&P 500 +1.29%) has seen the JPY continue to depreciate in Asian trade to 107.26 lows against the USD. Firm U.S. data helped sooth nervous investors on Friday as Sept. housing starts came in at 6.3% MoM (vs. 5.4% exp.) and the Oct. reading of the University of Michigan Confidence rose to 84.6 (vs. 84 exp.). Selling interest around 1.2840 again capped the Euro's initial gains (1.2837 highs) before it surrendered to 1.2735 lows. The Aussie traded up to .8812 but trades back at .8785 currently (.8735 lows).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: SELLERS AHEAD OF 1.2840 REMAIN TO CAP THE EURO ON FRIDAY

Pivot: 1.27807, R1 1.28170, R2 1.28738, R3 1.29669, S1 1.27239, S2 1.26876, S3 1.25945 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2735/40, Minor/Medium 1.2700/15 zone, Minor 1.2620/25.

Resistance Levels: MInor/Medium 1.2840/45, Medium 1.2890/1.2905 zone.

View: With momentum declining we favour more trade in side of 1.2700/10-1.2835/45. Expect some initial demand around 1.2735/40, no bias.

Technical Comment: The dailies are largely drifting with a declining ADX, the 4H's are weak, the 1H's are firming.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FARES WELL AS THE USD FIRMS (1.6126 HIGHS)

Pivot: 1.60833, R1 1.61374, R2 1.61805, R3 1.62777, S1 1.60402, S2 1.59861, S3 1.58889.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6025/30, 1.5940/55, Minor/Medium 1.5870/75.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.6115/35 zone, Extremely Minor 1.6160/65, Minor 1.6225/30.

View: The Cable looks capable of extending gains but needs to clear 1.6125/35 first. We see dips being limited to the 1.6025/40 area, if long here (25/40) tight stops would be under 1.6000.

Technical Comment: The dailies are improving marginally (esp. the Stochs which are strong), the 4H's are mixed/firm (the Stochs are easing), the 1H's are firming.

USD/JPY Intraday: RISK SENTIMENT IMPROVEMENT UNDERMINES THE JPY

Pivot: 106.651, R1 107.164, R2 107.453, R3 108.266, S1 106.361, S2 105.848, S3 105.046

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 106.80/85, Minor 106.65/75, Extremely Minor 106.55/60, 106.30/35.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 107.25/30, Medium 107.50/60, Extremely Minor 107.70/75, Minor 107.95/00.

View: We like the Usd/jpy higher but whimsical risk sentiment will dicate. We favour small longs at 106.80/90, stops need to wide under 106.00/10 so would average near 60 and 40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are rallying strongly (esp. the Stochs), the 4H's are strong (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SLIDES OFF .8812 HIGHS (.8785 LAST).

Pivot: .87634, R1 .87930, R2 .88418, R3 .89202, S1 .87146, S2 .86850, S3 .86066.

Support Levels: Minor .8730/35, Minor/Medium .8670/85 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .8810/20, .8830/40, Minor .8850/60, Medium .8890/.8900.

View: We favour more trade inside of .8730/35 to .8810/20 over the next 24 hrs. Would employ wide stops as the momentum declines (.8675, .8865), tighter could be .8700, .8840.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting but slowly improving (the ADX continues to decline), the 4H's are mainly flat, the 1H's are firm.

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[MahiFX]

Better than expected chinese data bolsters the aud/usd to .8814 highs

Market Summary

The USD eased against the key majors in trade yesterday, this saw the Euro recover from early session lows near 1.2730 to highs above 1.2815. Market sources noted that the ECB had begun its covered and asset backed securities buying program, with short dated bonds from two French banks amongst the targets for the purchases. The Cable overcame resistance at 1.6125/35 to trade up to 1.6180 having slipped to 1.6080 initially. The Usd/jpy climbed to ~107.40 highs yesterday before slipping to lows near 106.70 today. The Aussie lifted from yesterdays lows of .8750 to .8814 highs in Asian trade today after better than expected Chinese Q3 GDP (7.3% YoY vs. 7.2% exp.) and September Industrial Production data (8.0% YoY vs. 7.5% exp.).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO BENEFITS FROM A MODERATING USD

Pivot: 1.27827, R1 1.28341, R2 1.28684, R3 1.29541, S1 1.27484, S2 1.26970, S3 1.26113 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.2730/40, Minor/Medium 1.2700/15 zone, Minor 1.2620/25.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.2815/20, Minor/Medium 1.2840/45, Medium 1.2890/1.2905 zone.

View: We like the Euro to test the topside with the first major target being 1.2840/45 and then 1.2885/90, long stops under 1.2730 make R/R metrics poor, a tight stop could be under 1.2765.

Technical Comment: The dailies are largely unchanged from yesterday (drifting with a declining ADX), the 4H's are mildly positive, the 1H's are firm.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE OVERCOMES RES. AT 1.6120/35 TO TRADE TO 1.6180.

Pivot: 1.61414, R1 1.62032, R2 1.62416, R3 1.63418, S1 1.61030, S2 1.60412, S3 1.59410.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6145/50, Minor/Medium 1.6115/30, Extremely Minor 1.6080/85, 1.6055/65, Minor 1.6025/30.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6180/85, Minor 1.6225/30, Very Minor 1.6245/50.

View: We like the Cable to extend to 1.6225 with dips being limited to the 1.6130/40 area, long stops could be under 1.6100.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong (esp. the Stochs which are entering the o/bght bounds), the 4H's are strong with an elevated ADX, the 1H's are firm.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY GIVES BACK GAINS AFTER TRADING UP TO 107.40

Pivot: 107.042, R1 107.299, R2 107.650, R3 108.258, S1 106.691, S2 106.434, S3 105.826

Support Levels: Minor 106.65/75, Extremely Minor 106.55/60, 106.30/35.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 107.00, Very Minor 107.35/40, Medium 107.50/60, Extremely Minor 107.70/75, Minor 107.95/00.

View: We are wary of this downwwards correction extending to 106.55 and 106.35, we still like longs overall near these levels with stops under 106.00

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderate/firming (esp. the Stochs, least so the MACD), the 4H's are mainly soft, the 1H's are soft

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE TRADES TO .8814 AFTER STRONG CHINA GDP/IP DATA

Pivot: .87778, R1 .88076, R2 .88314, R3 .88850, S1 .87540, S2 .87242, S3 .86706.

Support Levels: Minor .8740/50, .8730/35, Minor/Medium .8670/85 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8810/20, .8830/40, .8850/60, Medium .8890/.8900.

View: The Aussie looks capable of extending its gains to .8835/40 and perhaps .8855/60. We would be surprised to see it much lower than .8780, long stops need to be under .8740/50.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to dirft higher (the DMI/ADX is least bullish), the 4H's are moderately firm (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are strong.

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[MahiFX]

The euro again encounters sound resistance at 1.2840/45, last 1.2725

Market Summary

The momentum swung back in favor of the USD during trade yesterday as the Euro declined heavily from its 1.2840 highs to be trading at 1.2725 currently. Market speculation that the ECB’s covered bonds and ABS buying program would be extended to corporate bonds hurt the Euro’s prospects. U.S. existing home sales (which represent over 90% of all home sales in the U.S.) rose by 2.4% MoM in September indicating improving overall demand for housing, evidence which was supported by a 5.6% YoY rise in median prices and a reduction in the supply of homes from 5.5 months in August to 5.3 months. The Cable slid from highs just above 1.6180 to currently trade at 1.6125, whilst the Usd/jpy overcame initial heavy selling before rebounding above 107 from its 106.25 lows. The Aud/usd surrendered its early gains from yesterday (.8833 highs) to lows under .8750 in Asia today as volatility increased over the Q3 CPI release which printed largely in line with expectations. The BoE minutes and the U.S. CPI data will feature today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO DECLINES ON FIRMER USD/ECB BOND BUYING CHATTER

Pivot: 1.27572, R1 1.27997, R2 1.28828, R3 1.30084, S1 1.26741, S2 1.26316, S3 1.25060 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.2700/15 zone, Minor 1.2620/25.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2745/50, Very Minor 1.2785/90, Medium/Major 1.2840/45, Medium 1.2890/1.2905.

View: We see being long here with a s/l under 1.2695 as being cheap as the momentum has declined. Major res. above is 1.2840/45.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift (although the Stochs have eased), the 4H's are mainly heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are rising.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE IS DRAGGED LOWER ON THE FIRMING USD (1.6125 LAST)

Pivot: 1.61356, R1 1.61619, R2 1.62106, R3 1.62855, S1 1.60869, S2 1.60607, S3 1.59857.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6100/05, 1.6080/85, 1.6055/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6180/85, 1.6225/30, Very Minor 1.6245/50.

View: We like to be long here, will adjust s/l to under 1.6075, target is 1.6180 and 1.6225.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the Stochs are still strong), the 4H's are mainly easing, the 1H's are drifting up.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY BOUNCES WELL FROM ITS 106.25 LOWS

Pivot: 106.759, R 107.262, R2 107.526, R3 108.292, S1 106.496, S2 105.993, S3 105.226.

Support Levels: Very Minor 106.50/55, Minor 106.20/25, 106.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor 107.35/40, Medium 107.50/60, Extremely Minor 107.70/75, Minor 107.95/00.

View: We like the Usd/jpy higher but this correction from 107.11 may extend to 106.55, long stops under 106.20, traders may wish to pare longs from yesterday above 107 as momentum declines.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the Stochs are strong, the RSI is flat, the MACD is soft), the 4H's are drifting/positive, the 1H's are weak.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FALLS OFF .8833 TO TRADE UNDER .8750 POST AUS CPI

Pivot: .87908, R1 .88218, R2 .88636, R3 .89364, S1 .87490, S2 .87180, S3 .86452.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .8740/50, .8730/35, Medium .8670/85 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .8830/40, Minor .8850/60.

View: We like more range trading whilst the Aussie is contained within .8720/.8840, with a triangle formation forming a close outside of this range should open fresh direction.

Technical Comment: The dailies are slowly drifting higher, the 4H's are mainly weak (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are firming (-DI>+DI though).

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[MahiFX]

THE CABLE DECLINES AFTER THE BoE MINUTES, 1.6050 LAST.

Market Summary
The Cable and Euro lurched lower again in trade yesterday, to lows of ~ 1.6010 and 1.2633 respectively (~ -0.75%). The Cable move came on the back of a dovish October set of BoE minutes. Concerns were aired by the majority on the MPC around the risks posed to the sustainability of the U.K. economic recovery by a slowdown in Europe. The Euro was under pressure as reports suggest as many as 11 banks in six EU nations will have failed the ECB stress tests. The Usd/jpy drifted higher from lows near 106.80 before again encountering selling interest ahead of the 107.40 level. The Aud/usd trades at .8755 currently having risen yesterday to .8816 highs. The Kiwi was a material underperformer in Asian trade falling over 0.85c as the Q3 CPI rose 0.3% (QoQ) against the 0.5% expectations.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO SINKS ON ECB BANK STRESS TEST CONCERNS

Pivot: 1.26760, R1 1.27148, R2 1.27785, R3 1.28810, S1 1.26123, S2 1.25735, S3 1.24710 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.2620/25, Very Minor 1.2600/05, 1.2580/85, Extremely Minor 1.2570/75.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.2700/15, Very Minor 1.2735/40.

View: The Euro looks poor but we would expect some buying congestion arriving in the 1.2570/1.2605 zone. Shorts are favoured, would prefer a bounce to 1.2675 to sell, stops would be above 1.2740 upbove the trend-line. Would add ahead.

Technical Comment: The dailies have swung sharply lower over the last 24hrs, the 4H's are very heavy (the Stochs are in the o/sold bounds), the 1H's are also very heavy.
https://d18azo516oxcnf.cloudfront.net/355/0383702b-32d7-441a-bfa8-fad4241f43e232555950-66ea-478c-830b-b7919a75c429-EUR2310.png

GBP/USD Intraday: DOVISH BOE MINUTES DENT THE CABLE

Pivot: 1.60643, R1 1.61175, R2 1.61841, R3 1.63038, S1 1.59978, S2 1.59446, S3 1.58248.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6025/30, Very Minor 1.6000/10, 1.5940/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6080/85, Very Minor 1.6105/10, Minor 1.6125/35.

View: The break of 1.6080 has made the Cable look weak. We favour shorts, could sell at 1.6075 adding at 1.6095/00, stops at 1.6135.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft, the 4H's are weak although sidetracking for now, the 1H's are lifting from weak levels.

USD/JPY Intraday: 107.40 CONTINUES TO CAP THE USD/JPY FOR THE TIME BEING

Pivot: 107.102, R1 107.414, R2 107.689, R3 108.276, S1 106.827, S2 106.515, S3 105.928.

Support Levels: Very Minor 106.75/80, Minor 106.50/55, 106.20/25, 106.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 107.35/40, Medium 107.50/60, Extremely Minor 107.70/75, Minor 107.95/00.

View: The Usd/jpy looks primed for its next move higher although 107.50/60 needs cleared. In the meantime we favour buying dips towards 106.90, stops under 106.50.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (esp. the Stochs, the 4H's are drifting on firm levels, the 1H's are mainly firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SLIDES OFF .8816 HIGHS TO TRADE AT .8755 CURRENTLY

Pivot: .87800, R1 .88142, R2 .88496, R3 .89192, S1 .87446, S2 .87104, S3 .86408.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .8740/50, .8730/35, Medium .8670/85 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8815/20, Medium .8830/40, Minor .8850/60.

View: The Aussie is drifting and whilst contained with the triangle formation (.8725/.8820) we favour more of the same, shorts favoured overall.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly drifting (the MACD, +DI/-DI are flat), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are mainly heavy.

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[MahiFX]

The usd/jpy roars through 107.40 to trade up to 108.35

Market Summary
A weaker JPY was the main casualty in trading over the last 24 hours as the Usd/jpy broke through 107.40 to trade up to 108.35. Increased risk appetite on the back of firming global equities (Dow+1.32%, S&P 500 +1.23%) reduced the JPY’s safe haven appeal, the BOJ was also seen selling 3 month T-Bills at a negative yield as efforts are continued to stimulate the local economy. The Euro shrugged off early weakness rallying from 1.2612 lows to highs of 1.2677. A rebound in the German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI against expectations of a decline bolstered the Euro. The Cable declined to lows under 1.6000 (1.5995 lows, 1.6035 last) on the back of a weaker than expected September Retail Sales out-turn. The Aussie continued to encounter selling pressure above 88c and trades at .8745 currently, well off its .8807 highs.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: PMI DATA BOLSTERS THE EURO FROM ITS LOWS

Pivot: 1.26456, R1 1.26776, R2 1.27089, R3 1.27722, S1 1.26143, S2 1.25823, S3 1.25190 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2610/15, Minor 1.2600/05, Very Minor 1.2580/85, Extremely Minor 1.2570/75.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2675/80, Medium 1.2700/15, Very Minor 1.2735/40.

View: We favour more of the same today with initial shorts to target 1.2675, tp's ahead of congestion buying at 1.2570/1.2605. Would add near 1.2700, stops above 1.2740.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still mainly soft (the RSI is edging up), the 4H's are drifting (the MACD, DMI are soft), the 1H's are firming.

GBP/USD Intraday: SOFT SEP. RETAIL SALES SEES THE CABLE TRADE BACK UNDER 1.6000

Pivot: 1.60284, R1 1.60615, R2 1.60933, R3 1.61583, S1 1.59965, S2 1.59634, S3 1.58984.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.5990/95, Minor 1.5940/50, Medium 1.5870/75.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6060/70, Minor 1.6080/85, Very Minor 1.6105/10, Minor 1.6125/35.

View: U.K. GDP will dictate today, the techs are poor so we would be surprised to see 1.6125/35 surpassed, 1.5940/50 is the first target on the downside.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to trade poorly, the 4H's are drifting on weak levels, the 1H's are mixed.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY WEAKENS THROUGH 107.40 TO TRADE TO 108.35 LOWS

Pivot: 107.908, R1 108.709, R2 109.155, R3 110.402, S1 107.462, S2 106.661, S3 105.414

Support Levels: Medium 107.50/65 zone, Minor/Medium 107.40/45.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 108.35/40, 108.45/50, 108.65/75, Minor 109.10/25 zone.

View: The Usd/jpy is strong again and we see the 107.40/65 zone as strong support for a correcton. Buyers may see 107.65/75, stops need to be under 107.00.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to strengthen (the Stochs have reached the o/bght zone), the 4H's are strong but have eased from their peaks (RSI/Stochs/+DI), the 1H's are weak.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FALLS TO .8720 IN ASIAN TRADE, FROM .8807 HIGHS PRIOR

Pivot: .87721, R1 .87954, R2 .88296, R3 .88872, S1 .87379, S2 .87145, S3 .86570.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8715/20, Medium .8670/85, Medium/Major .8640/50.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .8745/50, Minor/Medium .8810/20, Medium .8830/40.

View: The Aussie lurched through the lower bound of the triangle and prior .8730 support in thin trade today in Asia. We favour shorts but are wary of the false break in Asia. Would sell at .8780 or through .8715, if short at .8780 would stop above .8820, or above .8750 if short from .8715.

Technical Comment: The dailies have ebbed lower (the ADX is ticking up from low levels), the 4H's are mainly weak (the MACD is flat though), the 1H's have bounced from weak levels.

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[MahiFX]

The euro consolidates gains above 1.2700 post the ecb asset quality review

Market Summary

The USD is marginally lower against the key majors in trading over the last 24 hours. The Euro trades at 1.2715 after peaking at 1.2724 having earlier shrugged off underwhelming October German IFO confidence numbers that saw the business climate series of business confidence decline for the sixth straight month (103.2 vs. 104.3 exp.). The Cable rally extended to 1.6147 highs (1.6125 last). In the U.S. pending home sales data undershot expectations at 0.3% for September (vs. 0.5% exp.). The Usd/jpy has picked up from lows around 107.60 to trade at 107.80 currently whilst the Aussie trades near its highs at .8825.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO DRIFTS HIGHER POST THE ECB ASSET QUALITY REVIEW

Pivot: 1.26958, R1 1.27258, R2 1.27535, R3 1.28112, S1 1.26681, S2 1.26381, S3 1.25804 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2695/00, Very Minor 1.2660/65, Minor 1.2600/15 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2725/40 zone, Extremely Minor 1.2765/70, Minor/Medium 1.2785/90.

View: The Euro is drifting, we have no bias but expect it to be contained within 1.2665/1.2765 over the next 24/36 hrs, although a quiet session is more like 90/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting but edging higher (the ADX is low), the 4H's are firm, the 1H's are also firm (esp. the Stochs).

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE AMBLES HIGHER, 1.6150 CAPS SO FAR

Pivot: 1.61152, R1 1.61513, R2 1.61831, R3 1.62510, S1 1.60834, S2 1.60473, S3 1.59794.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6060/75 zone, Minor 1.5990/05.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6145/50, Minor 1.6180/85, 1.6225/30.

View: We like the Cable to be contained with 1.6070-1.6185 ahead of the key events later in the week, no bias.

Technical Comment: The dailies are edging higher, the 4H's are mainly strong although the Stochs have eased from their highs (the ADX is high), the 1H's are moderately firm.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY SIDE-TRACKS HAVING EARLIER TRADED TO ~ 107.60 LOWS

Pivot: 107.928, R1 108.249, R2 108.678, R3 109.428, S1 107.499, S2 107.178, S3 106.428

Support Levels: Medium 107.50/65 zone, Minor/Medium 107.40/45.

Resistance Levels: Minor 108.35/40, 108.45/50, 108.65/75, Minor 109.10/25 zone.

View: Like the other majors we favour more lateral price movement ahead of key events, longs are preferred, a break of 107.40 is required to negate the positive tone.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm but beginning to ease, the 4H's are mainly firm, the 1H's are declining from moderately firm levels.

https://d18azo516oxcnf.cloudfront.net/359/cb5f53f0-988c-4e14-90df-AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FIRMS TO NEAR .8830

Pivot: .88055, R1 .88218, R2 .88411, R3 .88767, S1 .87862, S2 .87699, S3 .87343

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8780/85, .8745/50, Very Minor .8715/20, Medium .8670/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .8830/40, Very Minor .8855/60.

View: The Aussie looks firm but the momentum is low and we don't expect much over the next 24 hrs. .8790-.8840 (.8860 max).

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift higher (-DI<+DI and the ADX is low though), the 4H's are firm, the 1H's are also firm.f30ccc81950972ad6a4c-b765-46dc-8ea6-1db7cb7f6a1a-JPY2810.png

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[MahiFX]

Sweden's riksbank slashes interest rates to zero, citing low inflation concerns

Market Summary
The USD lost ground during trading yesterday as a weak U.S. Sept. durable goods number set the tone for trading (-1.3% MoM vs. +0.5% exp.). Better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence (which jumped to a seven-year high) and Richmond Fed Manufacturing numbers were unable to turn the tide. The Euro traded to highs of ~1.2765 from its earlier lows around 1.2685, similarly the Cable firmed from ~1.6088 to 1.6182 highs. The SEK was a major loser falling over 1% against the Euro to lows near 9.3850 after the Riksbank cut its repo rate to zero from 0.25% citing low inflation concerns, concerns shared by the ECB throughout wider Europe. The Aussie (highs .8882) and Kiwi were both benefactors of improving risk sentiment as the major U.S. bourses closed over 1% higher (Dow 17,005). The U.S. FOMC meeting will be in focus later today where the Fed is expected to conclude tapering and deliver a generally dovish message.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: WEAK U.S. DURABLE GOODS NUMBERS AIDS THE EURO

Pivot: 1.27282, R1 1.27714, R2 1.28084, R3 1.28887, S1 1.26912, S2 1.26479, R3 1.25676 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.2685/95, 1.2660/65, Minor 1.2600/15 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2765/70, Minor/Medium 1.2785/90, Minor 1.2815/20, Minor/Medium 1.2840/50.

View: We will let the FOMC pass, the techs look firm, could see anything inside 1.2665 (1.2610 max./1.2845 (1.2885 max.) though depending on the statement.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift marginally higher (the ADX is low), the 4H's are side-tracking (slightly positive), the 1H's are firm.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS ON A WEAKER USD TO ~1.6182 HIGHS

Pivot: 1.61339, R1 1.61799, R2 1.62286, R3 1.63232, S1 1.60853, S2 1.60393, S3 1.59447.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6080/85, Very Minor 1.6060/75 zone, Minor 1.5990/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6180/85, 1.6225/30.

View: Like the Euro we prefer to let the FOMC pass, levels within reach are 1.6225/30 on the topside and 1.5990/1.6005 on the downside.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift up, the 4H's are tracking sideways (the Stochs are easing though), the 1H's are soft.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY TRADES AT 108.10 AS SUPPORT AHEAD OF 107.50 HOLDS

Pivot: 108.012, R1 108.325, R2 108.498, R3 108.983, S1 107.840, S2 107.527, S3 107.041.

Support Levels: Medium/Major 107.50/65 zone, Minor/Medium 107.35/45, Minor 106.65/80 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor 108.35/40, 108.45/50, 108.65/75, Minor 109.10/25 zone.

View: The tech's are still positive, we will leave today given the large event risk, key downside support is the 107.35/60 zone, whilst a bullish USD outcome will likely see 109.10/25.

Technical Comment: The dailies are positive but not gaining at present (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are firm (the Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is rising), the 1H's are mildly positive overall (the Stochs are weak though).

AUD/USD Intraday: IMPROVING RISK SENTIMENT HELPS THE AUSSIE TO .8882

Pivot: .88444, R1 .88934, R2 .89313, R3 .90182, S1 .88065, S2 .87575, S3 .86706.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8830/35, .8820/25, .8780/85, Extremely Minor .8745/50.

Resistance Levels: Medium .8890/00, Minor .8920/30, Very Minor .8950/55.

View: The Aussie is still firm but the FOMC will dicate. .8900 is the first key resistance on the topside, given the proximity to current market .8920/30 is possible. A bullish USD outcome should bring .8785 and possibly .8750 within reach.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm and gaining (the ADX has ticked up a touch), the 4H's are also strong (the ADX is high), the 1H's are firm.

Thanks for reading. The full Daily Score is located here.

 

[MahiFX]

The fed notes an improving u.s. Labour market, fomc doves bail as the usd rallies

THE FED NOTES AN IMPROVING U.S. LABOUR MARKET, FOMC DOVES BAIL AS THE USD RALLIES - The Daily Score for 30 October 2014

Market Summary

Fed doves were disappointed by todays FOMC meeting as the USD rallied strongly on the back of comments from the Fed which pointed to the improving U.S. labor market. The Committee assessed that there had been substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program, which was signaled to end as expected. The lack of comments over the recent USD strength also fueled the USD rise. From 1.2770 highs the Euro has fallen to 1.2616 lows, the Cable from a peak of 1.6160 to 1.5967, whilst the Aussie has declined from .8912 highs to lows of .8760. The Usd/jpy rallied over 100 pips to highs of 109.12.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: MARKET CAUGHT EXPECTING DOVISH FOMC, EURO SUFFERS

Pivot: 1.26779, R1 1.27247, R2 1.28175, R3 1.29572, S1 1.25851, S2 1.25382, S3 1.23986 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.2600/15 zone, Very Minor 1.2580/85, Extremely Minor 1.2570/75, Medium 1.2500/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2710/25 zone, Medium 1.2765/70.

View: The techs have soured, we favour selling rallies but will wait for 1.2685/95, stops above 1.2730. Spec buyers could lever off 1.2600/15, stops under 1.2565/70.

Technical Comment: The dailies have eased to look soft again although the ADX is low, the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs are o/sold, the ADX is rising), the 1H's are mainly heavy.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FALLS HEAVILY AS THE FOMC POINTS TO IMPROVING U.S. LABOUR MARKET

Pivot: 1.60587, R1 1.61147, R2 1.62176, R3 1.63765, S1 1.59558, S2 1.58998, S3 1.57410.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.5940/50, Minor/Medium 1.5870/75.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6070/85 zone, Medium 1.6180/85.

View: Like the Euro we prefer shorts but will wait for a bounce to the 1.6070/85 zone, a break of 1.5935/40 should open additional downside though. Spec longs could lever off this level.

Technical Comment: The dailies have turned lower to be soft overall, the 4H's are very heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are very weak.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY RALLYS IN LINE WITH A FIRMER USD ON THE FOMC

Pivot: 108.598, R1 109.253, R2 109.615, R3 110.632, S1 108.236, S2 107.581, S3 106.564.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 108.70/75, Minor/Medium 108.30/45 zone, Minor 107.90/05 zone, Medium/Major 107.50/65 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor 109.10/25 zone, 109.90/95.

View: Longs are favoured. We prefer a dip to 108.40/50 to buy, aggressive buyers could target 108.70/75 tight stops would be under 108.30, we will target the former though, stops under 107.90.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong and the momentum is beginning to increase (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are also strong (the Stochs/RSI are o/bght), the 1H's are also firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIES BREACH OF 89C PROVES BRIEF AS THE FOMC DISSAPOINTS FED DOVES

Pivot: .88284, R1 .88804, R2 .89629, R3 .90974, S1 .87459, S2 .86939, S3 .85594.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8760/65, .8745/50, .8730/35.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .8825/40 zone, Medium/Major .8900/15 zone.

View: The Aussie was hit particularly hard today on the FOMC after challenging 89c. We will look to the .8825/40 zone to sell. Spec longs could play off .8750/60, stops under .8715 are required.

Technical Comment: The dailies have turned lower (although the ADX continues to be low), the 4H's are very weak, the 1H's are heavy but beginning to improve.

Currency heat maps and economic calendar at The Daily Score here.

 

[MahiFX]

The surging usd/jpy sees the usd index (dxy) trade to fresh 4 year+ highs

Market Summary

The weakening JPY continued to hog the limelight in trade yesterday weakening to 114.20 lows against the dollar (from highs ~112.59) helping the USD index (DXY) to trade at fresh 4-year+ highs. The Cable rallied to highs near 1.6020 after better than expected manufacturing PMI data, which rose to 53.2 (51.2 exp.) in October from 51.6 prior, the Gbp/usd later retreated to lows near 1.5960. The Euro had a relatively quiet session slipping from its 1.2510 highs to lows of 1.2470, late trade has seen it rally to 1.2730. The Aussie faded in line with the firmer dollar from .8755 highs to track back to .8677. Fresh lows of ~.8645 were set in Asian trade as Aud/jpy longs were pared. A strong retail sales number for September at +1.2% (vs. 04.% exp.) was offset by weaker than expected September Trade deficit (-2.26B) data and an upwards revision to the September jobless rate (from 6.1% to 6.2%). Late trade has seen the Aud/usd move up to .8735 after the RBA kept rates on hold at 2.5% retaining a neutral rhetoric, noting a period of stability in rates ahead.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO RALLIES TO 1.2730 IN ASIAN TRADE Pivot: 1.24771, R1 1.2516, R2 1.25515, R3 1.26259, S1 1.24416, S2 1.24027, S3 1.23283 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).
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Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2515/20, 1.2470/75, Minor 1.2440/45, Extremely Minor 1.2420/25. Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2545/50, Very Minor 1.2590/95, 1.2605/15.
________________________________________
View: This recovery could looks capable of extending to 1.2545/50 and perhaps 1.2590. Longs could stop under 1.2470. Will leave. Technical Comment: The dailies remain weak and the ADX is increasing (the RSI has ticked up, the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are improving from weak levels, the 1H's are firm.

________________________________________
GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE IS UNABLE TO HOLD PMI DATA GAINS Pivot: 1.59714, R1 1.60178, R2 1.60663, R3 1.61612, S1 1.59229, S2 1.58765, S3 1.57816.
________________________________________
Support Levels: Very Minor 1.5920/25, Minor/Medium 1.5870/75. Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6010/20, Minor 1.6040/45, Very Minor 1.6070/85.
________________________________________
View: With a relatively empty data calender we are looking for more consolidation today with rallies capped in the 1.6020/40 zone and buyers towards 1.5955/65. Favour shorts and would stop above 1.6090. Technical Comment: The dailies are weak (the RSI has edged higher, the ADX is low), the 4H's are mixed/soft, the 1H's are mixed/firm (the RSI/Stochs are gaining, the MACD is flat).

________________________________________
USD/JPY Intraday: ONE WAY TRAFFIC FOR THE HAPLESS JPY Pivot: 113.597, R1 114.634, R2 115.243, R3 116.889, S1 112.988, S2 111.951, S3 110.305
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Support Levels: Minor 112.95/113.05, 112.45/55. Resistance Levels: Minor 114.20/25, Extremely Minor 114.35/40, Very Minor 114.65/70, Minor 115.00/15 zone.
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View: The bulls are in charge, while 114.20/25 caps we favour waiting for 102.95/103.10 to buy adding at 102.65, stops under 112.40 (tight), 111.80 (wide). A break of 114.20/25 opens more upside. Technical Comment: The dailies are very strong (the Stochs/RSI are o/bght, the ADX is rising), the 4H's are strong but beginning to ease, esp. the Stochs, the 1H's are drifting lower.

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AUD/USD Intraday: THE RBA KEEPS RATES ON HOLD AT 2.5%, RETAINS NEUTRAL TONE Pivot: .87052, R1 .87338, R2 .87885, R3 .88718, S1 .86505, S2 .86219, S3 .85386
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Support Levels: Major .8640/50, Extremely Minor .8630/35, Minor .8575/80. Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .8755/65, Minor .8805/15.
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View: The Aussie sell-off has again been rejected by the key .8640 support level. This move could test .8755/60 and perhaps the .8790/.8810 zone. A tight stop on longs would be under .8695. Would not try shorts until .8785+, stops above .8830. Will leave here. Technical Comment: The dailies are still heavy (although the RSI has ticked up), the 4H's are lifting from heavy levels, the 1H's are strong.

________________________________________

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[MahiFX]

The usd/jpy retraces to under 113.20, buyers push it back to 113.65 last

Market Summary
The USD was broadly weaker in trade yesterday led by the Usd/jpy which gave back some of its recent rapid gains retracing to under 113.20, before returning to trade at 113.65 currently. The Euro rallied to highs near 1.2580 from 1.2500 whilst the Cable was more restrained after a weaker than expected October PMI Construction out-turn which eased to 61.4 from 64.2 (vs. 63.5 exp.), the Cable peaked ahead of 1.6020 (last 1.6000). The Aussie rally has continued to .8762 in Asian trade, its counterpart the Kiwi has rallied strongly to .7840 highs as the Q3 employment change rose 0.8%, higher than the 0.6% forecast. The unemployment rate matched expectations at 5.4%. Todays data release calendar includes the October U.S ADP employment report and U.S. ISM Non Manufacturing PMI.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO KICKS ON TO ~1.2577 HIGHS

Pivot: 1.25351, R1 1.25884, R2 1.26307, R3 1.27263, S1 1.24928, S2 1.24395, S3 1.23439 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2540, 1.2500/05, Very Minor 1.2470/75, Minor 1.2440/45.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2575/80, Very Minor 1.2590/95, 1.2605/15, Minor 1.2630/35.

View: We favour this move continuing on to 1.2600/10 and possibly 1.2630/35. Stops under 1.2520, under 1.2500 is best.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting higher on weak levels, the 4H's are firm, the 1H's are also firm (but sidetracking).

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE SIDETRACKS AFTER SOFT PMI DATA

Pivot: 1.59952, R1 1.60252, R2 1.60470, R3 1.60988, S1 1.59734, S2 1.59434, S3 1.58916

Support Levels: Minor 1.5920/25, Minor/Medium 1.5870/75.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6010/20, Minor 1.6040/45, Very Minor 1.6070/85 zone.

View: The Cable is surprisingly lack-lustre, we see more trade within 1.5950 and 1.6040 as being most likely, without bias today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft but not deteriorating further (the Stochs are lifting), the 4H's are mainly drifting up, the 1H's are sidetracking.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY RALLY PAUSES, LOWS UNDER 113.20 ON THE DIP

Pivot: 113.596, R1 114.025, R2 114.451, R3 115.307, S1 113.170, S2 112.740, S3 111.885.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 113.00/113.15 zone, 112.45/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 114.20/25, Extremely Minor 114.35/40, Very Minor 114.65/70, Minor 115.00/15 zone.

View: Our view is unchanged from yesterday, buyers today at 113.10/20, adding at 112.65, stops under 112.40 (tight), 111.80 (wide). A break of 114.20/25 opens the upside.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still very strong (the RSI/Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is rising, +DI>-DI), the 4H's are firm (the RSI is o/bght), the 1H's are drifting with a firm tone.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RALLY CHALLENGES RESISTANCE AT .8755/65.

Pivot: .87112, R1 .87769, R2 .88153, R3 .89194, S1 .86728, S2 .86071, S3 .85030.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8710/15, Major .8640/50, Extremely Minor .8630/35, Minor .8575/80.

Resistance Levels: Medium .8755/65, Minor .8805/15.

View: Expect choppy trade over the notorious employment data tomorrow. We favour a move towards .8800/15 but with little in the way of obvious support till .8710 we will leave here. Watch .8630/45 tomorrow on a very bad number.

Technical Comment: The dailies have a soft tone (the Stochs have ticked up), the 4H's are mildy +ve (the Stochs are drifting lower), the 1H's are drifting.

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[MahiFX]

Extended usd positioning dictates direction after the u.s. Nf payrolls (eur 1.2475 la

Market Summary

A moderately weaker than expected October U.S. NF Payrolls saw the USD come under selling pressure as the market corrected under the weight of extended long dollar positioning. The NFP print at 214,000 was less than the 235,000 forecast but was still the 9th month in succession of net job creation above 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% although wages growth remained paltry as the average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% MoM, or 2.0% annualized. The Euro has moved to highs of 1.2490 in Asian trade so far, the Cable has lagged somewhat after the soft U.K. September trade data released on Friday, rising to 1.5913. The Usd/jpy has traded back to lows around 114.05 having briefly topped 115.50 last week whilst the Aud/usd has recovered well to .8682 highs having fallen to .8541 on Friday prior to the payrolls data. The softer USD gave the Gold price some relief finally, this has seen it trade over $US45 an ounce higher from last weeks lows near $US1130 a troy ounce.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO SNAPS HIGHER POST THE U.S. NFP (1.2490 HIGHS)

Pivot: 1.24276, R1 1.24967, R2 1.25389, R3 1.26502, S1 1.23854, S2 1.23163, S3 1.22050 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2435/40, Minor 1.2355/65, Medium 1.2320/30.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.2485/90, 1.2535/45, Minor 1.2570/80.

View: We prefer shorts but are unsure whether this move will extend to 1.2535/45. Could try spec sell order ahead of there and at 1.2570, stops above 1.2635.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak but beginning to improve, the 4H's are firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are also firm with an elevated ADX.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE RALLY LAGS IN THE SOFTER USD ENVIRONMENT

Pivot: 1.58483, R1 1.59069, R2 1.59453, R3 1.60424, S1 1.58098, S2 1.57512, S3 1.56542.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.5865/70, Minor 1.5785/90, 1.5765/75, Minor/Medium 1.5750/55.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major 1.6005/20.

View: We prefer shorts overall but won't entertain until closer to 1.6000. Longs could stop under 1.5860 but we will leave today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still very weak but beginning to lift a touch, the 4H's are firming, the 1H's are strong with a rising ADX.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EASES AFTER THE NFP (LOWS 114.05).

Pivot: 114.812, R1 115.372, R2 116.146, R3 117.480, S1 114.038, S2 113.478, S3 112.144.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 114.00/10, Medium 113.00/15.

Resistance Levels: Medium 115.45/55, Very Minor 115.95/116.05.

View: The JPY will be scrappy, longs here could stop under 113.95, little in the way of resistance is apparent till 115.45/55.

Technical Comment: The dailies whilst still very strong are beginning to ease (esp. the Stochs/RSI,+DI, least so the MACD), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are also weak.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE HAS A SOLID BOUNCE GAINING 1.4C FROM FRIDAYS LOWS.

Pivot: .86121, R1 .86835, R2 .87285, R3 .88449, S1 .85671, S2 .84957, S3 .83793.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8625/30, Medium .8540/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .8685/90, Medium .8700/20 zone, .8750/60.

View: We are happy to wait today with light trade exacerbating moves. With the hourly downtrend line broken we see this move being capable of attaining .8700/20 and perhaps .8750/60 this week, prefer shorts overall. Longs could stop under .8620.

Technical Comment: The dailies are lifting from weak levels, the 4H's are strong (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are also strong with a high ADX.

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[MahiFX]

Market Summary

The USD regained the ascendancy during trade yesterday in a quiet session, which lacked significant data releases. The U.S. holiday today should ensure another slow session. The Euro reversed off 1.2509 highs to trade back to 1.2435 currently, whilst the Cable slid to 1.5840 lows from a 1.5917 high. The Usd/jpy surged back to 115.00 from yesterdays lows under 113.90 (last 114.70), whilst the Aud/usd fell to .8610 lows from its .8684 highs seen yesterday. The Gold price encountered resistance ahead of the key prior $US1180 support level falling $US30 an ounce from its peak to $US1147 lows. U.S. equities edged further into record territory extending their 3-week advance (Dow +0.2%, to 17613.74, S&P 500 +0.3%, to 2038.26).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO FAILS TO HOLD ABOVE 1.2500, 1.2435 LAST.

Pivot: 1.24495, R1 1.24801, R2 1.25400, R3 1.26305, S1 1.23896, S2 1.23590, S3 1.22685 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2410/15, Minor/Medium 1.2355/65, Medium 1.2320/30.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.2505/10, 1.2535/45.

View: The Euro looks similar to the Cable, with the U.S. on holiday we expect to see it contained by 1.2410-15/1.2500, shorts preferred at top of the range.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain weak overall (the Stochs are ticking up), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are firming.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE WANES AS THE USD FIRMS.

Pivot: 1.58672, R1 1.58929, R2 1.59434, R3 1.60195, S1 1.58168, S2 1.57911, S3 1.57149.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.5835/40, Minor 1.5785/90, 1.5765/75, Minor/Medium 1.5750/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.5915/20, Medium/Major 1.6005/20.

View: We expect a quiet day, most likely within 1.5835/1.5915-20. Stops on longs at 1.5785. Short stops above 1.5950, shorts preferred.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy but side-tracking for now (the ADX is rising), the 4H's are mainly heavy, the 1H's are firming.

USD/JPY Intraday: BUYERS AGAIN RE-EMERGE ON THE USD/JPY CORRECTION

Pivot: 114.539, R1 115.218, R2 115.587, R3 116.635, S1 114.170, S2 113.491, S3 112.443.

Support Levels: Minor 113.80/85, Medium 113.00/15.

Resistance Levels: Very MInor 115.00/05, Medium 115.45/55, Very Minor 115.95/116.05.

View: The Usd/jpy is free to move inside of 113.80/115.50 making trading very tough here. Could be spec short, stops above 115.10, longs should look to yesterdays lows for entry.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain strong (least so the Stochs, the ADX remains high), the 4H's are also firm (esp. the Stochs, less so the RSI/MACD), the 1H's are easing.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE GIVES BACK ITS GAINS FALLING TO ~.8610 LOWS.

Pivot: .86376, R1 .86665, R2 .87119, R3 .87862, S1 .85922, S2 .85633, S3 .84890.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8600/10, Medium .8540/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8685/90, Medium .8700/20 zone, .8750/60.

View: We favour selling rallies overall but expect a range-bound session today with the U.S. out. .8605/.8685, shorts at .8675/80 stops above .8720.

Technical Comment: The dailies are slowly improving, the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are firming (the MACD is flat).

The MahiFX Daily Score.

 

[MahiFX]

BoE and FOMC MINUTES TODAY, EUR RALLIES TO 1.2545 ON FIRM ZEW CONFIDENCE DATA

Market Summary

The Euro has been a notable outperformer in trading over the last 24 hours reaching 1.2545, up a cent against the dollar from yesterdays lows. The move higher was boosted by better than expected EU and German ZEW confidence surveys. Both the current situation reading (3.3 vs. 1.7 exp.) and the expectations reading (11.5 vs. 0.5 exp.) exceeded expectations (Germany). The Usd/jpy has once again set fresh 2014 highs in Asian trade above 117.30. Japanese Prime Minister Abe confirmed a snap election for Dec. 14 and suspended the 2nd phase of a sales tax hike until April 2017. The Aud/usd initially fell to .8681 lows as the RBA Governor Stevens said during a speech that he saw rates on hold for an extended period noting that he saw a “pretty material risk” that the currency will fall further. The subsequent bounce has been contained by .8750, fresh lows at .8658 have dealt in Asian trade . The BoE and FOMC minutes will be the highlights of the data calendar today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: FIRMING EURO IS HELPED BY A STRONGER THAN EXPECTED ZEW

Pivot: 1.25083, R1 1.25729, R2 1.26105, R3 1.27127, S1 1.24707, S2 1.24061, S3 1.23039 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.2500/05, 1.2440/45.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2545/50, Medium 1.2570/80, Very Minor 1.2600/10.

View: We have a mild bias to shorts but stops need to be above 1.2580 so traders may wish to wait towards todays highs to sell (40/45). First downside target is 1.2445.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately soft but sidetracking, the 4H's are firm but starting to drift lower, the 1H's are mainly easing.

GBP/USD Intraday: BoE/FOMC MINUTES THE FOCUS FOR TODAY

Pivot: 1.56474, R1 1.56647, R2 1.56961, R3 1.57447, S1 1.56161, S2 1.55988, S3 1.55501.

Support Levels: Minor 1.5590/00, Very Minor 1.5420/30.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.5675/80, Minor 1.5735/40.

View: The Cable is heavy, we favour shorts ahead of 1.5680, or on a break of 1.5585/90, stops above 1.5740 or 1.5625 (if short on the break trade).

Technical Comment: The dailies remain very heavy with a high ADX (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are soft also, the 1H's are weak.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY SETS FRESH 2014 HIGHS ABOVE 117.30 IN ASIA

Pivot: 116.750, R1 117.162, R2 117.463, R3 118.176, S1 116.449, S2 116.037, S3 115.324.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 116.30/35, 116.00/10, Minor 115.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 117.90/00.

View: We favour longs with stops under 116.70, more conservative play would be buying at 116.85/90 with stops under 116.30. Tough with the volatility, prefer the Aud/usd trade.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to trade very strongly (the Stochs/RSI are o/bght, the ADX is high), the 4H's are also strong with a rising ADX, the 1H's are firm and lifting.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FALTERS AFTER DOVISH RBA COMMENTS

Pivot: .87163, R1 .87499, R2 .87800, R3 .88437, S1 .86862, S2 .86526, S3 .85889

Support Levels: Minor .8645/50, Minor/Medium .8590/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8710/20 (rising), .8745/50, Medium .8800/15 zone

View: The Aussie is heavy and the price action has broken the up-trend channel. We favour shorts, we expect rallies to be capped by .8710/20 (rising with the lower bound of the channel), stops above .8750. Care req. as first support looms at .8645/50.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weakening (the ADX is reasonably low), the 4H's are weak with a rising ADX, the 1H's are very heavy.

For the full Daily Score head over to the MahiFX Blog here.

 

[Zelo]

Nice charts !!

 

[Zelo]

I think EUR/USD will range around 1.25 till the end of the year.

 

[MahiFX]

Charts

Nice charts !!

Thank you for your feedback! Sorry took a few days off from posting the Daily Score on this site but it's always available Monday-Friday on the MahiFX Blog if you wish to read it there. ^MMF for MahiFX

 

[MahiFX]

Firm german ifo and ecb member comments help the euro lift (1.2425 last)

Market Summary

The Euro continued to firm off its repeat 1.2360 2014 lows during trade yesterday as it rallied from around 1.2380 to 1.2445 highs after the German IFO posted its first rise in seven months, exceeding market expectations (current assessment 110.00 vs. 108.00 exp., expectations 99.7 vs. 98.60 exp.). The Aud/usd surrendered Friday’s gains slipping to .8570 as the market quickly reassessed the likely impact of Chinese policy stimulus on future demand. The JPY eased to trade down to ~118.57 lows against the USD, whilst the Cable drifted higher to 1.5715 highs. Todays’ data releases include the second reading of the Q3 U.S. GDP, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and U.S. consumer confidence.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO LIFTS ON ECB MEMBER COMMENTS AND FIRMER GERMAN IFO

Pivot: 1.24161, R1 1.24700, R2 1.24987, R3 1.25813, S1 1.23874, S2 1.23335, S3 1.22509 (All pivots are daily 5 pm).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.2350/60, Medium 1.2320/30, Very Minor 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2440/50, Very Minor 1.2500/10, 1.2570/80.

View: While 1.2440/50 caps we favour a return to 1.2350/60, next resistance is 1.2500, longer term short stops could be above there.

Technical Comment: The dailies cotninue to trade with a soft tone (esp. the Stochs), the 4H's are mixed/firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are weak.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE LIFTS ON A FIRMER EURO

Pivot: 1.56828, R1 1.57366, R2 1.57681, R3 1.58533, S1 1.56513, S2 1.55975, S3 1.55122.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.5625/30, Minor/Medium 1.5580/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.5735/40, Minor 1.5780/90.

View: Our view is unchanged on yesterday, favour shorts overall towards the 1st resistance, with buyers showing interest at 25, better support should exist near 1.5580/90.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift on soft levels, the 4H's are drifting lower, the 1H's are very heavy with a rising ADX.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FIRMS AGAIN TO 118.57 HIGHS.

Pivot: 118.110, R1 118.639, R2 119.013, R3 119.916, S1 117.736, S2 117.207, S3 116.304.

Support Levels: Very Minor 117.30/35, 117.00/10 zone, 116.30/35.

Resistance Levels: Very MInor 118.55/60, Minor 118.90/00, Extremely Minor 119.15/20.

View: We continue to favour longs with an entry near 117.00, stops under 116.30, the JPY is tough at the moment so prefer to trade elsewhere.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm but beginning to ease (esp. the Stochs which have left the o/bght zone, the RSI is o/bght), the 4H's are weakening, the 1H's are also soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE RECENT AUSSIE GAINS ARE QUICKLY SURRENDERED (.8570 LOWS).

Pivot: .86406, R1 .86788, R2 .87392, R3 .88378, S1 .85802, S2 .85420, S3 .84434.

Support Levels: Minor .8560/65, Minor/Medium .8535/45, Minor .8500/15 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .8615/20, Minor .8720/25, Very Minor .8745/50, Medium .8785/.8800.

View: The Aussie is heavy but support levels are close at hand, longs could target 60/65 and 40/45, stops under .8500, a break of .8535/40 should open the downside although false breaks abound. Expect initial sellers near .8620.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately weak with a low ADX, the 4H's are very weak (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are very soft.

https://mahifx.com/blog/#daily-score

 

[MahiFX]

The euro shrugs off a u.s. Q3 gdp uplift, the aussie sets fresh 2014 lows at .8514

Market Summary

The Euro reversed early losses set shortly after the surprise lift in the second reading of the U.S. Q3 GDP which saw an upwards revision to 3.9% from the 3.5% initial reading. Both the U.S. Consumer Confidence (Nov., 88.7 vs. 96.0 exp.) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index undershot expectations. The Euro has traded up to 1.2487 from 1.2402 lows. The Aud/usd sell-off continued setting fresh 2014 lows at .8514 as the market absorbed more dovish comments from the RBA (deputy governor Lowe), this was exacerbated by another fall in iron ore prices. The Cable again encountered stern selling interest at 1.5735/40 ahead of the U.K. GDP data, which is set for release today. The Usd/jpy trades at 117.80 having peaked at 118.30 in trade yesterday.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO BUYERS PUSH THE EUR/USD TO 1.2487 HIGHS

Pivot: 1.24544, R1 1.25068, R2 1.25393, R3 1.26242, S1 1.24219, S2 1.23695, S3 1.22846 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2440/45, Very Minor 1.2395/00, Minor//Medium 1.2350/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2500/10, 1.2570/80.

View: The Euro looks to be entering a consolidating period between 1.2350 and 1.2600. Today we favour px. action within 1.2435/45-1.2500/10 (i.e. centre of range).

Technical Comment: The dailies are still soft but are improving (the ADX is low), the 4H's are firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are mainly weak.

GBP/USD Intraday: GDP DATA TODAY (1.5705 LAST).

Pivot: 1.56975, R1 1.57458, R2 1.57838, R3 1.58702, S1 1.56594, S2 1.56111, S3 1.55247

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.5625/30, Extremely Minor 1.5645/50, Minor/Medium 1.5580/90.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.5735/40, Minor 1.5780/90.

View: Data will dicate today but while 1.5735/40 caps we favour the downside (could stop above 1.5750 on shorts to give false break room).

Technical Comment: The dailies are improving from heavy levels (esp. the Stochs), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are soft.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY CONSOLIDATES AROUND 118.00 YESTERDAY

Pivot: 118.084, R1 118.475, R2 118.972, R3 119.861, S1 117.587, S2 117.195, S3 116.307.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 117.60/65, Very Minor 117.30/35, 117.00/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 118.25/30, Very MInor 118.55/60, Minor 118.90/00, Extremely Minor 119.15/20.

View: We favour a drift towards the 117.00/30 zone where longer term players could look to long entries which are favoured here.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain firm but are drifting lower (esp. the Stochs), the ADX is still high, the 4H's are weak with a much lower ADX, the 1H's are mixed.

AUD/USD Intraday: DOVISH COMMENTS AND LOWER IRON ORE PX'S HURT THE AUSSIE

Pivot: .85547, R1 .85956, R2 .86602, R3 .87657, S1 .84901, S2 .84492, S3 .83437.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .8500/15, Extremely Minor .8475/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8555/65, .8605/15, .8720/25.

View: We favour shorts although expect some consolidation within .8500/.8610 for now. Short latecomers could target .8560/70 to sell adding at .8595/05, stops above .8630. A break of .8500 should open more downside.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain very weak although the ADX indicates only low/moderate momentum, the 4H's are lifting from heavy levels, the 1H's are mixed.

For the full analysis please visit us here.

 

[MahiFX]

The aud/usd sentiment continues to sour, .8480 lows from a .8565 peak

Market Summary

he USD slid against the Euro and Cable yesterday amidst long USD profit taking against these key currencies, this was aided by a softer than expected Michigan consumer sentiment reading (88.8 for Nov., vs. 90 exp.) and Chicago PMI which eased to 60.8 (vs. 63 exp.). The Euro lifted to 1.2530 highs whilst the Cable moved through the resistance at 1.5735/40 to trade up to 1.5805. The Aussie fell heavily again (after initially firming to .8565 highs) to set new 2014 lows again (.8480) with sentiment continuing to be poor as rate cut talk heightens amid recent comments over its valuation. Asian trade has seen it trade back to a .8583 peak however. The Usd/jpy trades at 117.60 currently having traded ~ 117.45-117.84 since our last report.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO FIRMS ON LONG USD PROFIT TAKING, 1.2530 HIGHS

Pivot: 1.24938, R1 1.25437, R2 1.25818, R3 1.26698, S1 1.24557, S2 1.24058, S3 1.23178 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2480/85, Minor 1.2440/45, Very Minor 1.2395/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.2530/35, Minor 1.2570/80.

View: We favour longs towards and above 1.2480/90, stops under 1.2440 for 1.2530 and 1.2570. Low conviction trade as is counter trend.

Technical Comment: The dailies are all improving, the 4H's are firm (the Stochs/RSI are sidetracking), the 1H's are easing currently.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE BREAKS RECENT 1.5735/40 RESISTANCE, 1.5805 HIGHS

Pivot: 1.57590, R1 1.58385, R2 1.58853, R3 1.60116, S1 1.57122, S2 1.56327, S3 1.55063.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.5735/45, Very Minor 1.5675/80, 1.5645/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.5800/10, 1.5835/45, Extremely Minor 1.5860/65.

View: We favour tactical longs towards 1.5740, stops under 1.5670, a break of 1.5805/10 should open 1.5840 and perhaps 1.5865 although the R/R on longs from here looks too tough. Tight stops on shorts could be above 1.5810.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are strong with a relatively low ADX, the 1H's are mainly easing from prior firm levels.

USD/JPY Intraday: QUIET TRADE IN THE USD/JPY (117.45-117.84)

Pivot: 117.717, R1 117.993, R2 118.261, R3 118.806, S1 117.449, S2 117.172, S3 116.628.

Support Levels: Very Minor 117.40/45, 117.30/35, 117.00/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 118.25/30, 118.55/60.

View: The Usd/jpy looks tired, we favour a move towards 117.00/10 and perhaps 116.30 as USD positions reduce, tight stops could be above 118.00. Prefer to trade elsewhere.

Technical Comment: The dailies are similar to yesterday (strong but easing, although the Stochs are weak), the 4H'sare soft with an increasing ADX, the 1H's are also soft on balance.

AUD/USD Intraday: HORROR RUN FOR THE AUSSIE CONTINUES (.8480 LOWS).

Pivot: .85310, R1 .85817, R2 .86162, R3 .87014, S1 .84965, S2 .84458, S3 .83606.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8525/30, Minor/Medium .8475/85, Very Minor .8390/.8405.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8605/15, .8720/25.

View: The Aussie failed at the first res. yesterday. Whilst we favour shorts we are wary of a more protracted USD correction. We favour waiting for .8595/05 to sell on this move, stops above .8630. First decent support is around .8480. Small possies due to hard bounce.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain weak (the RSI has ticked a touch higher), the 4H's are firming (the ADX is declining however), the 1H's are also firming.

 

[MahiFX]

Oil prices continue to plunge on opec, the usd rally resumes in earnest (usd/jpy 118.

Market Summary
A familiar tune during trade yesterday as the USD rally resumed. The Euro fell from highs of 1.2524 and trades near its lows (~1.2448) at 1.2460 currently having been helped lower by soft November German inflation data. The Cable has also fallen heavily from highs of 1.5825 to trade at 1.5725, whilst the Aussie has dropped over 1c from its highs (.8616) in the thin U.S. holiday trade. The Usd/jpy reversed its early losses from 117.25 lows to trade up to 118.28. Data released today saw CPI gains slow for a third straight month in Japan. Japan continues to grapple with slowing inflation, an issue which is not helped by the recent tumbling oil price. January Brent crude fell over 6% yesterday (to ~$72.80) as OPEC announced no cuts to production at their meeting in Vienna.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE USD RALLY RESUMES, SOFT GERMAN INFLATION NUMBERS HURT THE EURO

Pivot: 1.24856, R1 1.25064, R2 1.25444, R3 1.26032, S1 1.24476, S2 1.24268, S3 1.23680 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.2440/45, Very Minor 1.2395/00.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2495/00, Minor 1.2530/35, 1.2570/80.

View: Would stop longs under 1.2440 (as per yesterday), with momentum relatively low for now, shorts could target a break of 1.2440 (higher risk with lower momentum) or (1) 1.2495/00, (2) 1.2530.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed with a relatively low ADX, the 4H's are very heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are soft but lifting.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE QUICKLY REVERSES OFF 1.5825 HIGHS

Pivot: 1.57593, R1 1.58029, R2 1.58703, R3 1.59813, S1 1.56919, S2 1.56482, S3 1.55372

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.5675/80, 1.5645/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.5830/45 zone, Extremely Minor 1.5860/65.

View: The price action looks heavy, longs could stop under 1.5670 (as per yesterday), first res. is around yesterdays highs though so initiating fresh shorts may be dangerous here as momentum eases.

Technical Comment: Like the Euro the dailies are mixed although weak on balance, the 4H's are heavy with an increasing ADX (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are also soft.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY SELL-OFF ACCELERATES ON THE INFLATION DATA

Pivot: 117.617, R1 117.996, R2 118.262, R3 118.907, S1 117.351, S2 116.972, S3 116.327.

Support Levels: Very Minor 117.20/25, 117.00/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 118.25/30, 118.55/60, Minor 118.95/05.

View: The Usd/jpy is strong again and the tech's still look sound. We prefer to trade elsewhere while it turns on a dime but favour longs now.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain firm (the Stochs aside, the ADX is elevated but easing, the 4H's are rising (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are strong

AUD/USD Intraday: FRIENDLESS AUSSIE DIVES OVER A CENT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS

Pivot: .85631, R1 .85973, R2 .86498, R3 .87365, S1 .85106, S2 .84764, S3 .83897.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8500/05, Minor/Medium .8470/85 zone, Very Minor .8390/.8405.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .8605/20, .8720/25.

View: The Aussie failed near anticipated levels yesterday and looks poor but the metrics on shorts here are much tougher. A break of .8470/80 should open the downside again, some res. may be seen at .8560/70 but much better is at .8605/20.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak (the ADX/-DI are drifting higher), the 4H's are weak, the 1H's are weak with a high ADX.

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