Market Summary and Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

MahiFX

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Daily forex market summary from MahiFX - 13 June

Market Summary
The spotlight was on the Cable in early Asian trade today as the BOE Governor Mark Carney said that the BOE could raise interest rates sooner than the markets expect. Carney expressed concerns over the housing market debt mountain, which could undermine stability. U.K. house prices rose ~10% over the past year placing loan/income ratios at an all time record. (Cable highs 1.6958). The Aussie rally continued to .9438 highs after yesterday’s solid May employment data release, whilst the Kiwi peaked at .8700 putting its peak gains at 1.75% since the mildly hawkish RBNZ statement yesterday. The Euro managed to post only marginally additional losses to 1.3512 before rallying to 1.3572 highs, whilst the JPY continued to firm (Usd/jpy lows 101.60, last 101.80). Resistance at 102.10/15 caps the Usd/jpy for the time being before the BOJ.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: BUYERS EMERGE AHEAD OF 1.3500, EUROZONE CPI AWAITED

Pivot: 1.35456, R1 1.35789, R2 1.36053, R3 1.3665, S1 1.35192, S2 1.34859, S3 1.34262. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3500/10, Minor/Medium 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3580/85, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: The 1.3580/90 level holds the key, CPI could foster some vol, shorts would stop above here, the first support level is 1.3500/10. A break of 1.3590 should bring 1.3620 into view.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain soft with a high ADX, the 4H's are firming (although the ADX is falling), the 1H's are ticking up.



GBP/USD Intraday: CABLE SOARS ON CARNEY RATE HIKE TALK

Pivot: 1.68819, R1 1.69775, R2 1.70263, R3 1.71707, S1 1.68331, S2 1.67375, S3 1.65931.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6900/05, Very Minor 1.6880/85, Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6975/80, Minor/Medium 1.6995/1.7005, Medium/Major 1.7040/50.

View: Whilst thin Asian markets have no doubt exacerbated the up-move the bulls are in charge. We like to buy ahead of 1.6900, adding ahead of 1.6880, stops under 1.6840 for 1.7000+

Technical Comment: The dailies are very strong, the 4H's are also strong (the RSI and Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is high), the 1H's are very similar to the 4H's.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY FIRMS TO 101.60 VS THE USD. BOJ IN FOCUS

Pivot: 101.851, R1 102.023, R2 102.352, R3 102.887, S1 101.487, S2 101.279, S3 100.743.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.05/15, Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Minor 102.65/70.

View: Some vol. will ensure over the BOJ, we favour selling rallies for now but will wait for the BOJ commentary to clear, 102.10/15 and 102.40 are the first topside levels to watch.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak although the momentum is stil low (although increasing), the 4H's are heavy (the ADX is high), the 1H's are firming.


AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RALLY CONTINUES TO .9438 HIGHS

Pivot: .94054, R1 .94609, R2 .94938, R3 .95822, S1 .93725, S2 .9317, S3 .92286.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9400/05, Extremely Minor .9390/95, Very Minor .9375/80, Minor/Medium .9350/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9440/50, Minor/Medium .9460/65, Very Minor .9485/90.

View: The bulls are in charge but we are hesitant after the strong run and the S.T. tech's are pointing to a consolidation. We won't chase preferring to buy at .9375/85 stops under .9350, care over Chinese data required.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (MACD aside, the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are firm but currently tracking sideways, the 1H's are soft.



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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 18 June 2014

Market Summary
Apologies for missing a day or two of posting the Daily Score. . . .

he U.S. FOMC meeting will hog the limelight later today where focus will center on the policy statement and update of the economic projections by the Fed chair Janet Yellen. A $US10B monthly reduction in asset purchases is widely expected, reducing the monthly purchases to $US35B. The May U.S. CPI reading released yesterday was stronger than expected; the headline number at 2.1% (YoY) exceeded the 2.0% expectations (core 2.0% vs. 1.9% exp.), whilst the monthly headline rise (0.4%) was the largest increase in 15 months. The Euro slid from yesterday’s highs (1.3587) to base at 1.3536. The Aussie continued its slide to lows of .9329, whilst the Usd/jpy firmed to 102.24. Weaker than expected U.K. CPI data (core 1.6% YoY vs. 1.70% exp, from 2.0%) saw the Cable trade marginally lower to 1.6937, the BOE minutes will be in focus today, signs of a shift in the debate towards possible rate hikes before years end will be closely watched.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ALL EYES ON THE FOMC

Pivot: 1.3557, R1 1.35776, R2 1.36079, R3 1.36588, S1 1.35267, S2 1.35061, S3 1.34552 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80, Minor 1.3450/55, Minor/Medium 1.3415/20.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.3580/90, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: We prefer to stay out over FOMC, the techs are mixed. 1.3500/10, and 1.3580/90 are the closest key levels to watch.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly tracking sideways (although the Stochs are firm), the 4H's are mildly soft (although the Stochs have lifted), the 1H's are trickling higher (the Stochs aside).



GBP/USD Intraday: BOE MINUTES AND FOMC TODAY

Pivot: 1.69641, R1 1.6990, R2 1.70153, R3 1.70665, S1 1.69388, S2 1.69129, S3 1.68617.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6935/45, 1.6920/25, 1.6900/05, 1.6880/85, Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.7005/1.7015, Medium/Major 1.7040/50. Minor 1.7130/40.

View: The bulls are in control but the FOMC will induce volatility and we prefer to stay out.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are slightly soft (Stochs aside, the ADX is falling), the 1H's are firming.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FIRMS PRIOR TO THE FOMC

Pivot: 102.069, R1 102.322, R2 102.496, R3 102.922, S1 101.895, S2 101.642, S3 101.216.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.20/25, 102.40/45, Minor 102.65/70, 102.80/85, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: Too tough with FOMC, but we would be surprised to see it break out of 101.40/60 on the downside and 102.80/103.10 on top.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming moderately, the 4H's are also firming (the Stochs have eased a touch), the 1H's are sliding.



AUD/USD Intraday: FOMC TO SET THE TONE

Pivot: .93571, R1 .93838, R2 .94302, R3 .95033, S1 .93107, S2 .9284, S3 .92109.

Support Levels: Minor .9320/30, Very Minor .9300/05, Minor/Medium .9280/85, .9250/60.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9365/70, Minor .9375/80, Very Minor .9385/90, .9405/10, Minor .9440/50.

View: Will stay put over FOMC. Its tough to see a move beyond .9250 and .9400/10 over the announcement.

Technical Comment: The dailies are sliding, the 4H's are soft but the Stochs/RSI are beginning to lift, the 1H's are firming.

 

MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 23 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The Australian dollar surged in Asian trade today from lows posted shortly after the open (~.9370) on solid Chinese factory data. The Aussie has rallied to .9442 highs so far after the HSBC Flash PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.4 in May, well ahead of consensus forecasts of 49.7. The Canadian dollar rallied on Friday from around 1.0820 against the dollar to be trading around 1.0725 currently after the Canadian CPI rose 2.3% in May from a year earlier, exceeding the BOC’s target for the first time in more than 2 years. The Cable retreated from its multi-year highs around 1.7060 to trade down to 1.7002 lows (last 1.7035) whilst the Euro slid to lows around 1.3563 (last 1.3605). The Usd/jpy has slipped marginally from highs set near 102.20 to be trading at 101.95 currently.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO BOUNCES OFF 1.3560.

Pivot: 1.35993, R1 1.36345, R2 1.36692, R3 1.37391, S1 1.35646, S2 1.35294, S3 1.34595 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35, Medium/Major 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3640/50, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: We favour the Euro returning higher to challenge last week's highs (1.3640/45) and 1.3670. Stops unfortunately need to be sub 1.3560.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mildly firm (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are mixed but beginning to tick higher again, the 1H's are firm but lack momentum.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EASES FROM MULTI-YEAR HIGHS NEAR 1.7060.

Pivot: 1.70255, R1 1.70481, R2 1.70833, R3 1.71411, S1 1.69903, S2 1.69677, S3 1.69099.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6995/1.7005, Very Minor 1.6930/40, 1.6915/25, 1.6900/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.7060/65, 1.7130/40.

View: The Cable continues to look good and while 1.6995/1.7005 holds we favour higher levels targeting 1.7130/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm but haven't added to their gains (the Stochs have eased), the 4H's are swinging higher, the 1H's are firm.



USD/JPY Intraday: MORE RANGE TRADING FOR THE USD/JPY

Pivot: 102.028, R1 102.239, R2 102.407, R3 102.786, S1 101.86, S2 101.649, S3 101.27.

Support Levels: Minor 101.70/75, 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.15/20, Minor 102.35/45, 102.65/70, 102.80/85.

View: Its hard to see anything but groundhog day yet again for the Usd/jpy. 101.70/102.20/25 remains in play.

Technical Comment: The dailies still lack any real impetus (the ADX is low), the 4H's are easing but also lack momentum, the 1H's are heavy.



AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE BOOSTED ON CHINA PMI DATA

Pivot: .93939, R1 .94098, R2 .94308, R3 .94677, S1 .93729, S2 .9357, S3 .93201.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9400/05, Minor .9365/75, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9435/50 zone, Minor/Medium .9460/65, Very Minor .9480/85.

View: The Aussie is challenging good res. currently. This move looks capable of testing the 2014 highs at .9460 but we wouldn't chase here. We prefer to leave spec. sell at 60 and 75/80 with a s/l above .9500.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moving higher again (the MACD is flat), the 4H's are firming although the momentum is still quite low, the 1H's are firm.



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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 25 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

A marginally firmer USD against most of the majors yesterday as data continues to suggest the U.S. economy performing well over spring. New home sales at +504,000 rose 18.6% MoM (+1.4% exp.) and was the largest 1-month gain since January 1992. Consumer Confidence rose to 85.2 in June from 83.0 (exp. 83.5). By contrast the German IFO business survey was soft, the Euro eased to 1.3583 lows from ~1.3627 highs. The Aussie fared poorly in the firm USD environment sliding to .9356 lows (from above .9420) as the high-yielders lost their luster on the improving U.S. data and concern over Fed complacency re potential emerging inflation pressures. The Cable slid through the 1.7000 support area to lows of 1.6965 so far as the BOE Governor Carney downplayed the speed at which interest rates might rise, the Usd/jpy again stumbled around the 102.15 level (101.90 last).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: GERMAN IFO SOFT, EURO LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HRS PRIOR

Pivot: 1.36058, R1 1.36281, R2 1.36499, R3 1.3694, S1 1.3584, S2 1.35617, S3 1.35176 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35, Medium/Major 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3625/30, Minor 1.3640/50, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: With the declining momentum we favour the Euro being contained within 1.3570/1.3630 again today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed and momentum is declining, the 4H's also lack momentum and direction , the 1H's are slightly soft.



GBP/USD Intraday: CARNEY ATTEMPTS TO DOWNPLAY THE SPEED OF INTEREST RATE RISES

Pivot: 1.69942, R1 1.70227, R2 1.70605, R3 1.71268, S1 1.69564, S2 1.69279, S3 1,68616.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6930/40, 1.6915/25, 1.6900/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6995/1.7005, Medium 1.7060/65.

View: The Cable has lost its shine, we expect rallies to stall ahead of 1.7000 with 1.6920 the target, stops above 1.7040.

Technical Comment: The dailies are deteriorating led by the Stochs/RSI, the 4H's are sliding, the 1H's are soft but improving.



USD/JPY Intraday: 102.15/20 CAPS THE USD/JPY AGAIN

Pivot: 101.986, R1 102.154, R2 102.337, R3 102.688, S1 101.803, S2 101.635, S3 101.284.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 101.70/75, 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 102.15/20, 102.35/45 Minor 102.65/70, 102.80/85.

View: With the current very low momentum there is still money trading 101.70/102.15. No bias here.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to track sideways with low momentum, the 4H's are sliding, the 1H's are mixed (the Stochs/RSI are improving).



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FARES POORLY AS HIGH YEILDERS WANE (.9356 LOWS).

Pivot: .93884, R1 .94103, R2 .94527, R3 .9517, S1 .9346, S2 .93241, .92598.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9350/55, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9370/75, .9405/15, Medium .9440/50.

View: A move through .9350 will likely open up .9320/30 as a target but the risk metrics aren't compelling. The first real res. should lie just above .9400. We prefer to buy at 35, 25 stops under .9300.

Technical Comment: The dailies are softening (DI- has crossed DI+), the 4Hs are heavy with increasing momentum (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are improving from a weak position.



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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 27 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
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Discussion over the Fed interest rate policy was in the limelight yesterday. James Bullard, president of the FRB of St. Louis told Fox Business Network that he favors raising rates in early 2015 (earlier than many expect). Bullard said the FOMC is closer to its goals for full employment and low and stable inflation than many investors realize. He forecast that growth will pick-up to 3% this year. The Euro slid to lows around 1.3575 from the 1.3620 area. The Cable rose after the U.K. Financial Stability Report discussion outlined measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market and curbing debt (highs 1.7040), key U.K. GDP data will be released later today. The Usd/jpy was little changed on the host of data released in Asia today today after trading down to the 101.50 level yesterday (core inflation +3.4% YoY, exp. 3.4%), although has slipped later to 101.45 in Asian trade. The Kiwi set fresh 2014 highs above .8790 today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO TRADING LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AFTER 1.3575 LOWS.

Pivot: 1.36095, R1 1.36432, R2 1.36752, R3 1.3741, S1 1.35775, S2 1.35437, S3 1.3478 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3640/55 zone, Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05.

View: 1.3570/80 is the buy area, upside targets remain 1.3650,70 and 1.3700. Mild upside bias but will stay out until sub 1.3580 (buy, stops under 1.3550).

Technical Comment: The dailies are mildly positive (the Stochs are edging lower), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are strong.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS ON BOE HOUSING MEASURES

Pivot: 1.70124, R1 1.70534, R2 1.70809, R3 1.71494, S1 1.69849, S2 1.69439, S3 1.68754.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6990/1.7000, 1.6950/55, 1.6930/40, Minor 1.6915/25.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.7060/65, Very MInor 1.7130/40.

View: The Cable looks firm again, we expect 1.6990/1.7005 to hold sell-offs, upside targets are 1.7060/65 then 1.7130/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are swinging higher again, the 4H's are firming (the ADX is rising), the 1H's are firm.



USD/JPY Intraday: DATA FAILS TO ROUSE THE JPY, 101.45 LAST

Pivot: 101.696, R1 101.899, R2 102.07, R3 102.445, S1 101.524, S2 101.321, S3 100.947

Support Levels: Minor 101.40/50, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.80/85, Minor/Medium 102.15/20, 102.35/45 Minor 102.65/70, 102.80/85.

View: The Usd/jpy continues to trade heavily but sell-offs below here typically quickly attract buyers over the past 4 months. We prefer to buy at 30/40 stops under 101.10. Re-buy at 100.85, stop under 100.60.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very similar to yesterday (slightly soft), the 4H's are also soft with increasing momentum, the 1H's are soft.



AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE UNCHANGED IN QUIET TRADE

Pivot: .94097, R1 .94232, R2 .94322, R3 .94547, S1 .94007, S2 .93872, S3 .93647.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9395/00, .9370/75, Minor .9350/55, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05.

Resistance Levels: Medium .9440/50, .9460/65.

View: We see .9390/95 to .9445 wrapping it up today. No real bias, although selling at 35/45 with stops above .9465 should be cheap.

Technical Comment: The dailies are slowly firming with moderate momentum, the 4H's are firm with reasonably low momentum, the 1H"s are firm but tracking sideways.



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MahiFX

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The Daily Score 30 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

A quiet last 24 hours in the majors although some outperformance has been seen in the safe haven currencies the JPY and CHF (Usd/chf .8910, Usd/jpy 101.30 last). The EUR harmonized CPI reading for June came in at 1.0% YoY (0.7% exp.), helping the Euro trade up from lows around 1.3610 to ~1.3650 on Friday. The Cable was little changed trading a ~1.7006-1.7050 range (last 1.7030) as the U.K. Q1 GDP final read was unchanged at 0.8% as expected. The Aussie again ran into selling interest around the .9440 level before retreating to lows around .9405, whilst the JPY has firmed to highs of 101.26 against the USD in Asian trade today. Traders will be watching the U.S. Pending Homes sales and Chicago PMI data later today, whilst the RBA interest rate decision will be released in Asia tomorrow ( no change at 2.5% exp.).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EUR FIRMS ON CPI DATA

Pivot: 1.36366, R1 1.36636, R2 1.36777, R3 1.37188, S1 1.36225, S2 1.35955, S3 1.35544 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3630/35, Very Minor 1.3605/10, Minor 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3530/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3645/55, Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks firm but needs to get through 1.3650/55, we favour waiting for 1.3610/15 to buy, more agreesive buyers could target 30/35, targets are 1.3670/80 and 1.3700.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting higher (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are firm (the Stochs are o/bght, the RSI is edging lower), the 1H's are drifting lower.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE FINAL READING OF Q1 U.K. GDP AS EXPECTED.

Pivot: 1.70317, R1 1.70567, R2 1.70763, R3 1.71209, S1 1.70121, S2 1.69871, S3 1.69425.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6990/1.7000, 1.6950/55, 1.6930/40, Minor 1.6915/25.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.7060/65, Very MInor 1.7130/40.

View: We continue to favour the upside, 1.6990/1.7000 needs to hold sell-offs, a break of 1.7060/70 will bring 1.7130 into view.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (watch for a potential Macd/signal line sell cross alert though), the 4H's are similar, the 1H's are easing.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY FIRMS MARGINALLY IN ASIAN TRADE

Pivot: 101.484, R1 101.65, R2 101.895, R3 102.307, S1 101.238, S2 101.072, S3 100.661.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.10/15, Medium 100.70/80, Minor 100.60/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.50/55, 101.80/85, Minor/Medium 102.15/20.

View: The tech's are heavy but selling down here is only for the brave. Long here, stops under 101.10, bears could target 101.45/50 stops above 101.75.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak with increasing momentum, the 4H's are also weak (the ADX is edging higher), the 1H's are mainly soft.



AUD/USD Intraday: FAMILAR SELLING ABOVE .9440 CAPS THE AUSSIE

Pivot: .94257, R1 .94458, R2 .94612, R3 .94967, S1 .94103, S2 .93902, S3 .93547.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9395/00, .9370/75, Minor .9350/55, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major .9440/50, .9460/65.

View: Selling between .9440 and .9460 has capped the Aussie since Nov. 2013. The Aussie does look firm however so we favour small longs around .9400/05, adding at 85/90, stops under .9370, RBA care needed though. .9440/65 to cap.

Technical Comment: The dailies are marginally firm, the 4H's are mixed with declining momentum, the 1H's are firming.



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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 01 July 2014

Happy Canada Day to all Canadians!
Here's the daily forex market summary:

Market Summary
The USD slide continued yesterday despite continued solid dataflow. Pending sales of existing homes lifted the most in 4 years, whilst the Chicago PMI eased marginally (62.6 from 65.5, 63.0 exp.) but remains high with strong underlying details. The Euro rallied sharply to highs around 1.3698 and the Cable 1.7115, the latter trading at the highest levels since Oct. 2008. The Usd/jpy continues to find support ahead of 101.20 (last 101.40). The Aussie rallied off .9387 lows to trade back up to .9440 in line with the weakening USD. Data released in Asian trade today saw China’s factory growth rise to a six-month high in June; the official PMI quickened from May’s 50.8 to 51.0. The RBA left interest rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected reaffirming their neutral stance; this has seen the Aud/usd trade up to .9455 highs as some market pundits had expected more dovish commentary.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO RALLY RESUMES, HIGHS NEAR 1.3700

Pivot: 1.36771, R1 1.37137, R2 1.37349, R3 1.37928, S1 1.36559, S2 1.36192, S3 1.35614 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3645/55, Very Minor 1.3630/35.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3700/05, 1.3735/40, 1.3775/80.

View: The break of 1.3650/55 has quickly seen near 1.3700, we won't chase as we can't see this beyond 1.3735/40 for now. Longs favoured but prefer bids near 1.3660, stops under 1.3625.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (the Stochs are entering the o/bght zone), the 4H's are firm but haven't gained in recent hours (the ADX is high), the 1Hs are heavy (sell signals RSI+DMI+MACD).



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS TO THE HIGHEST LVLS SINCE OCT 2008 (1.7100+)

Pivot: 1.70763, R1 1.71443, R2 1.7183, R3 1.72897, S1 1.70376, S2 1.69696, S3 1.68629.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7060/65, Medium 1.6995/1.7005.

Resistance Levels: Very MInor 1.7130/40, 1.7155/60, 1.7175/80, Extremely Minor 1.7185/90.

View: The bulls are in charge, buyers should look for 1.7060/70 to hold, solid support is around 1.7000 though, first target is 1.7130/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (the ADX is rising again), the 4H's are also firm (the Stochs and RSI are o/bght), the 1H'S are declining.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY BEGINS WEAKENING OUT OF THE FAMILAR USD/JPY SUPPORT ZONE (101.10/25).

Pivot: 101.347, R1 101.455, R2 101.581, R3 101.815, S1 101.221, S2 101.113, S3 100.879.

Support Levels: Minor 101.10/25 zone, Medium 100.70/80, Minor 100.60/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor 101.50/55, Very Minor 101.80/85, Minor/Medium 102.15/20.

View: The Usd/jpy is begnning to find itsfeet, we will maintain longs, stops still under 101.10 targeting 101.70 and 101.90/95, latecomers could target 101.20/30 again.

Technical Comment: The dailies are beginning to firm from their weak position (MACD aside), the 4H's are increasing, the 1H's are firm (the ADX is increasing, the Stochs are o/bght).



AUD/USD Intraday: BUYERS PUSH AUSSIE BACK FROM .9387 TO .9440, .9455 POST RBA

Pivot: .94198, R1 .94519, R2 .9471, R3 .95222, S1 .94007, S2 .93686, S3 .93174.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9410/15, .9385/90, Very Minor .9370/75, Minor .9350/55.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major .9460/65, Very Minor .9480/85, Extremely Minor .9495/.9505, Minor .9525/30.

View: The Aussie is firm but still lies in the resistance band ahead of .9460/65. We can't buy here and will stand aside, .9415-.9485/.9500 is our pick for the next 24/36 hrs. False break potential above .9460.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm, the 4H's are also firm (the ADX is low though), the 1H's are firming.

 

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The Daily Score - 11 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The majors were dominated by a flight to safety yesterday, which saw the USD gain ground except against the JPY that is also viewed as a safe haven bet. The move started after a ‘missed payment’ in the holding company structure encompassing Portuguese bank Espirito Santo which lost 17% before trading was halted in the stock, this served to heighten risk aversion. The Euro slumped to 1.3589 having earlier peaked at 1.3650, the Cable drifted lower to 1.7105 lows, whilst the JPY rallied to 101.07 highs against the USD. The Aussie continued its decline to base at .9361 after having earlier spiked to .9455 highs in Asia after the June employment data. The bounce has so far been contained by .9400.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO WANES ON FLIGHT TO USD SAFETY FEARS

Pivot: 1.36162, R1 1.36432, R2 1.3678, R3 1.37398, S1 1.35814, S2 1.35544, S3 1.34926. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3610/15, Minor/Medium 1.3645/55, Extremely Minor 1.3665/75, Minor/Medium 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro is trapped between 90&10 for now. We still favour shorts overall but with little momentum and a void data calendar a rangy play is most likely. 1.3570/1.3615.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed with declining momentum, the 4H's are soft, the 1H's add little but are soft on balance.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EASES BUT MISSES MOST OF THE FLIGHT TO SAFETY SELLING

Pivot: 1.71349, R1 1.71646, R2 1.71974, R3 1.72599, S1 1.71021, S2 1.70724, S3 1.70099.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.7090/95, 1.7080/85, Minor 1.7060/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.7165/70, Medium/Major 1.7175/80, Extremely Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, Very Minor 1.7230/35.

View: Little has changed since yesterday, we have a mild short bias but continued drifting today is most likely. Shorts at 40/55 should stop above 80.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting lower from firm positions (the Stochs aside, the 4 H's are firming slowly, the 1H's are firming (the RSI aside).



USD/JPY Intraday: RISK AVERSION AND SAFETY BUYING SPURS THE JPY.

Pivot: 101.36, R1 102.65, R2 101.955, R3 102.551, S1 101.055, S2 100.764, S3 100.169.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.65/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.35/45, 101.60/65, 101.70/75.

View: The Usd/jpy looks heavy but selling down here over recent months has often proved fruitless. Cheap trade would be to sell at 35/40, s/l above 101.60.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft with increasing momentum, the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs aside), the 1H's are soft.



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE CONTINUES LOWER TO .9361 ON RISK AVERSION FLOW

Pivot: .94041, R1 .94469, R2 .94988, R3 .95935, S1 .93522, S2 .93094, S3 .92147.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9355/60, .9340/45, Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9395/00, .9410/15, Very Minor .9440/45, Minor .9455/60.

View: Its hard to see the Aussie rallying above .9400, .9410/15 max. We favour mild shorts targeting .9360 and .9340.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the DMI looks the firmest), the 4H's are drifting higher, the 1H's are firming.


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The Daily Score - 14 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The CAD was the weakest G10 currency on Friday as the market reacted to an unexpected climb in the unemployment rate to 7.1% (vs. 7.0 % exp.) and a drop in employment of 9,400 jobs for June (vs. +20,000 exp). Despite part-time job losses being the driver behind the fall (-43,000) the CAD fell from ~1.0650 against the USD to be currently trading at 1.0735. Most of the other majors were contained within reasonably tight ranges (Euro, ~1.3592-1.3625), the Cable ~1.7100-1.7150, and the Aussie ~.9375-.9409. Focus for the early part of this week will center on the FOMC Chair Janet Yellens’ semi-annual testimony to Congress (the Humphrey Hawkins Testimony) as traders watch for any acknowledgement of the recent strength in inflation and employment indicators, as market chatter continues around the potential for an earlier initiation of rate hikes.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: QUIET TRADE AROUND 1.3600 IN THE EURO

Pivot: 1.36081, R1 1.36240, R2 1.36407, R3 1.36733, S1 1.35914, S2 1.35755, S3 1.35429 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3645/55, Extremely Minor 1.3665/75, Minor/Medium 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks soft overall but momentum is low. We note Draghi's speech today, we'd be surprised to see any comments that reverse its soft tone, so favour mild shorts 20/30, stops above 55.

Technical Comment: The dailies are displaying moderate softness with declining momentum, the 4H's are flat/edging up a touch, the 1H's similar



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE (1.7100-1.7150)

Pivot: 1.71218, R1 1.71475, R2 1.71763, R3 1.72308, S1 1.7093, S2 1.70673, S3 1.70128.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7090/95, Very Minor 1.7080/85, Minor 1.7060/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.7150/55, Minor 1.7165/70, Medium/Major 1.7175/80, Extremely Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, Very Minor 1.7230/35.

View: The Cable rally looks increasingly tired to us, we favour a move lower but note the CPI release on Tuesday will most likely be the catalyst for the next move so don't expect too much today. 1.7150/65 to cap.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to deteriorate (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are soft.



USD/JPY Intraday: MORE DULL TRADE IN THE USD/JPY

Pivot: 101.314, R1 101.411, R2 101.490, R3 101.665, S1 101.235, S2 101.139, S3 100.963.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.65/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.35/45, 101.60/65, 101.70/75.

View: The Usd/jpy market is lack-luster, we think it is most likely in the center of its range for the next 24/36 hours, 101.05-101.60/65.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately soft (although the RSI/Stochs are ticking up a touch), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are mainly easing.



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE OPENS LOWER AFTER GOV. STEVENS ARTICLE COMMENTS

Pivot: .93922, R1 .94083, R2 .94246, R3 .9457, S1 .93759, S2 .93598, S3 .93274.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9370/75, .9355/60, .9340/45, Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9410/15, .9440/45, Minor .9455/60.

View: We view more of the same as being most likely today .9375-.9410/15, with a chance of .9425 max. Favour shorts.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing (although DI+ is above DI-), the 4H's are beginning to lift (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are firm (flat MACD).



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The Daily Score - 15 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
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Market Summary
The Cable stood out as an underperformer in an otherwise quiet market amongst the majors as it slid from highs above 1.7140 to under the 1.7085/1.7100 support zone established this month (lows 1.7070). The Euro was well contained within recent ranges again failing to rally beyond 1.3650 (1.3640 highs, last 1.3615). Comments from the ECB’s Draghi to the E.U. parliamentary committee failed to ignite. The JPY eased to lows around 101.65 against the USD. Neutral RBA minutes saw the Aussie track sideways in Asian trade today. Generally positive sentiment saw equities rally in Europe and the U.S., with the Dow briefly trading at record highs again whilst the Gold price under-went its largest daily fall in 2014 so far (-2.5%, last $US1307 an ounce).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: DRAGHI COMMENTS FAIL TO FIRE THE EURO

Pivot: 1.3619, R1 1.36404, R2 1.36617, R3 1.37045, S1 1.35976, S2 1.35762, S3 1.35335. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, 1.3570/75, Very Minor 1.3560/65.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.3640/55 zone, Extremely Minor 1.3665/75, Minor/Medium 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks listless with 1.3600/1.3640 likely to wrap it up. We have a mild short bias towards the upper end of the range, s/l's above 55.

Technical Comment: The dailies are tracking sideways with low momentum, the 4H's are very similar, the 1H's are mixed.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE DRIFTS LOWER THROUGH 1.7100 PRIOR TO CPI DATA TODAY

Pivot: 1.70995, R1 1.7129, R2 1.71738, R3 1.72481, S1 1.70547, S2 1.70252, S3 1.69509.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7060/65, Very Minor 1.7045/50, Medium 1.6995/1.7010 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7085/95, Minor 1.7150/55, 1.7165/70, Medium/Major 1.7175/80

View: The Cable looks heavy but the CPI could make things messy. We will stay out today, key resistance lies in the 1.7150/80 area, key support 1.6995/1.7010.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft pointing to downside pressure (the ADX is tracking lower), the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs are o/sold, the ADX is low), the 1H's are mixed.



USD/JPY Intraday: NO CHANGE FROM THE BOJ

Pivot: 101.497, R1 101.661, R2 101.786, R3 102.075, S1 101.372, S2 101.208, S3 100.919.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.20/25, Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.65/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.70/75, 101.80/85, 101.95/00.

View: The momentum is to the upside for now and this move could extend to 101.80/85 and 101.95. We will leave though.

Technical Comment: The dailies are lifting, the 4H's are firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are mixed.



AUD/USD Intraday: RBA MINUTES NEUTRAL, AUSSIE UNCHANGED

Pivot: .93913, R1 .94054, R2 .94176, R3 .94439, S1 .93791, S2 .9365, S3 .93387.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9370/75, .9355/60, .9340/45, Medium .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9410/15, .9440/45, Minor .9455/60.

View: Little has changed since yesterday, we still like the Aussie to be contained within .9370/.9415.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting with a mildly positive tone, the 4H's lack momentum and are largely drifitng, the 1H's are featureless.

 

MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 16 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The Dollar rallied yesterday on comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her testimony to Congress. The markets appeared to react to comments that re-iterated those said from her 18 June post FOMC meeting press conference where Yellen talked about policy moving more swiftly if the data was stronger. Given the improvement in the U.S. data since, the market has again focused on the risk of an earlier start to Fed Fund hikes. The Euro has fallen from highs around 1.3628 to current levels of 1.3565 and the Aussie from near .9400 to lows around .9335. The Cable was a solid performer early in the day on the back of firmer than expected June CPI data which rose to 2.0% YoY from 1.6% (1.7% expected), this saw the Gbp/usd rally to highs of 1.7190 from lows around 1.7060 (last 1.7135). The Kiwi was a material underperformer and has traded down to around .8700 cents (from .8817 highs) after a weaker than expected Q2 CPI print and another fall in dairy giant Fonterra’s GDP Price Index which has lost 35% since its February highs.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: MARKET TAKES YELLEN COMMENTS AS USD BULLISH

Pivot: 1.35865, R1 1.36109, R2 1.36526, R3 1.37187, S1 1.35448, S2 1.35204, S3 1.34543. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3560/65, Very Minor 1.3535/40, Medium 1.3500/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3580/90, 1.3600/05, Medium 1.3640/55 zone

View: The Euro looks soft although has held in Asia. We like rallies to be capped between 1.3580/90, stops above 1.3630 (1.3640 best) for 1.3500/10 target.

Technical Comment: The Euro daily tech's look soft after the USD rally although the ADX is low, the 4H's are also heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are heavy.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE SETS NEW 2014 HIGHS AFTER STRONG CPI DATA (1.7190)

Pivot: 1.71318, R1 1.72041, R2 1.72646, R3 1.73973, S1 1.70713, S2 1.69991, S3 1.68663.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.7085/00, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, 1.7230/35.

View: The Cable was messy over the last 24 hours with the break of 1.7180 proving false as the USD gained ground. This move lower could extend to 1.7085/90, rallies should be capped near today's highs.

Technical Comment: The dailies have improved although lack momentum, the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are soft.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY IS AGAIN QUIET DESPITE VOL. IN OTHER MAJORS

Pivot: 101.622, R1 101.81, R2 101.938, R3 102.255, S1 101.494, S2 101.306, S3 100.989.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, 101.20/25, Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00, Minor 102.15/20.

View: With the USD in favour we view a slow move higher towards 102.15 as being most likely. Longs could stop under 101.40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming pointing to upside pressure, the 4H's are strong (the ADX is high), the 1H's are easing higher.



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SLIDES ON BROAD BASED USD BUYING

Pivot: .93736, R1 .93981, R2 .94259, R3 .94782, S1 .93458, S2 .93213, S3 .92690.

Support Levels: Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05, .9270/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9355/60, Very Minor .9370/80, .9395/00, Minor .9410/15.

View: The Aussie looks heavy, we see bounces being limited to .9360, .9375 max in this firm USD environment, stops need to be above .9405.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft, the 4H's also point to Aussie weakness, the 1H's complete the weak outlook (the Stochs/RSI are at the o/sold bounds).



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The Daily Score - 17 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
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Market Summary
A firmer USD against the Euro again yesterday as Janet Yellens testimony to congress acknowledged that the U.S. labor market “continues” to improve faster than anticipated. Comments from the Fed’s Fisher included one that the Fed is “staying loose for too long”, whilst the U.S data releases remained robust with Industrial Production (IP) lifting 0.2% MoM in June following May’s 0.5% rise. According to the Fed, the Q2 rise in IP is the strongest in 4 years (5.5% annualized). The Euro now trades at 1.3530 (lows 1.3520). In the U.K. the unemployment rate fell to new 5 1/2 year lows at 6.5%, although wage growth was muted (average earnings +0.3% YoY in the 3 months to May), meaning real wage growth remains negative (Cable last 1.7140). The Aussie found support again around .9330; gains have been limited to .9371 so far. U.S. data will feature today with housing starts, initial jobless claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey being released.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO CONTINUES TO EASE ON CONTINUED TALK OF EXCESS U.S. EASY CREDIT

Pivot: 1.35402, R1 1.35595, R2 1.35936, R3 1.36469, S1 1.35062, S2 1.34869, S3 1.34335 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80, Very Minor 1.3460/65, Minor/Medium 1.3450/55.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3555/60, Minor 1.3575/90 zone, 1.3600/05, Medium 1.3640/55 zone

View: The Euro looks heavy although key support zones around 1.3500 and 1.3470 are fast approaching. We favour a day establishing levels between 1.3500/1.3560 but overwhelmingly favour shorts at the upper end of the range, stops >1.36.

Technical Comment: The dalies point to a continued heavy outlook (the ADX is beginning to lift), the 4H's are heavy but the RSI/Stochs are drifting up slightly in o/sold territory, the 1H's are mixed.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REACHES NEW 5.5 YR LOWS

Pivot: 1.71337, R1 1.71533, R2 1.71703, R3 1.72069, S1 1.71167, S2 1.70971, S3 1.70605.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7085/00, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7150/55, Very Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, 1.7230/35.

View: We favour more trading within 1.7100/1.7190 whilst the USD has a bid tone which should limit the upside. No bias for today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed/to slightly firm with low momentum , the 4H's are firming, the 1H's are easing higher (the MACD aside).



USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FAILS AT 101.80.

Pivot: 101.701, R1 101.765, R2 101.86, R3 102.019, S1 101.606, S2 101.542, S3 101.383.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, 101.20/25, Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00, Minor 102.15/20.

View: The Usd/jpy upside couldn't be maintained but we doubt this down-leg will extend far either. We are picking 101.35/40-101.75 on the day, 20/85 max.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed, the 4H's are deteriorating, the 1H's are also heavy with increasing momentum.



AUD/USD Intraday: SUPPORT BELOW .9330 HOLDS, .9370/75 CAPS SO FAR

Pivot: .93575, R1 .93852, R2 .94026, R3 .94477, S1 .93401, S2 .93124, S3 .92673.

Support Levels: Medium/Major .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05, .9270/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9370/80, .9395/00, Minor .9410/15.

View: The Aussie looks soft, we favour shorts for another look at key support at .9315/30. We see rallies being limited to .9375/80.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately soft, the 4H's are drifitng, the 1H's are easing (the MACD is featureless).

 

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The Daily Score - 18 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Unfortunate developments over the Ukraine set the tone in the markets today after Malaysian airlines flight MH-17 en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam was shot down over the Eastern Ukraine. Russian separatists are the most likely suspects for the act of aggression. The heightened geopolitical risk that favors safe-haven assets at the expense of risky assets saw equities sold on the news, whilst Gold and U.S./German bonds were in high demand. Moves in the majors were relatively mild as the Aussie fell from earlier highs of .9392 to lows around .9335, the Euro to 1.3512 (~1.3540 highs) and the Cable 1.7083 (~1.7144 highs), whilst the safe-haven JPY rallied to 101.08 highs against the USD. U.S. data releases were mixed. The Philly Fed survey rose to its highest level since March 2011, whilst U.S. housing starts disappointed. Fed hawk Bullard commented that he favored a first rate hike in Q1 2015 and that monetary policy is far from normal even as the economy nears the FOMC goals.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO EASES MODERATELY, SUPPORT AT 1.3500/10 NEARBY

Pivot: 1.35280, R1 1.35393, R2 1.35517, R3 1.35754, S1 1.35156, S2 1.35043, S3 1.34806 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80, Very Minor 1.3460/65, Minor/Medium 1.3450/55.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3540/45, Very Minor 1.3555/60, Minor 1.3575/90 zone, 1.3600/05, Medium 1.3640/55 zone

View: The Euro is contained within 10/40. Its unlikely to remain this way though. We favour mild shorts at 35 and 55 stops above 1.3580.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain soft (the Stochs are o/sold, the ADX is rising), the 4H's are lifting from weak positions, the 1H's are mainly improving.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE DIPS BELOW 1.7100 FROM HIGHS SUB 1.7150.

Pivot: 1.71103, R1 1.71349., R2 1.71687, R3 1.72271, S1 1.70765, S2 1.70519, S3 1.69935.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7080/85, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65, Medium 1.7000/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7115/20, Very Minor 1.7150/55, 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05.

View: The Cable continues to look vulnerable, we favour shorts in this environment and expect rallies to stall ~1.7115. Two options, s/l above 50 or add ahead of 50, stops above 1.7190. We favour the latter as vol. is to be anticipated.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing (the ADX is low), the 4H's are also soft with increasing momentum, the 1H's are soft but picking up a touch.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY RISES ON SAFE HAVEN DEMAND AFTER MH-17 CRASH

Pivot: 101.337, R1 101.536, R2 101.898, R3 102.459, S1 100.975, S2 100.776, S3 100.215.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, Extremely Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00.

View: The Usd/jpy overshot on the downside as safe haven currencies were sought post MH-17. With the ADX still low pointing to minimal momentum we favour containment with 101.05/101.60. Sell bias.

Technical Comment: The dailies mainly point to downside pressure (DI- is rising), the 4H's are mixed (the Stochs/RSI are turning up to leave o/sold bounds, the MACD is heavy), the 1H's are firming.



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE DECLINES AS RISK AVERSION HEIGHTENS ON MH-17

Pivot: .93633, R1 .93801, R2 .94082, R3 .94531, S1 .93352, S2 .93184, S3 .92735.

Support Levels: Medium/Major .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05, .9270/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9375/80, Very Minor .9395/00, .9410/15.

View: Expect more choppy trading today in light of global events, we favour selling between .9375 and .9395 stops above .9415.

Technical Comment: The dailies are largely tracking sideways with a falling ADX, the 4H's are mildly negative (although the RSI has ticked up), the 1H's are rising.



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