Market Summary and Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 16 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The Dollar rallied yesterday on comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her testimony to Congress. The markets appeared to react to comments that re-iterated those said from her 18 June post FOMC meeting press conference where Yellen talked about policy moving more swiftly if the data was stronger. Given the improvement in the U.S. data since, the market has again focused on the risk of an earlier start to Fed Fund hikes. The Euro has fallen from highs around 1.3628 to current levels of 1.3565 and the Aussie from near .9400 to lows around .9335. The Cable was a solid performer early in the day on the back of firmer than expected June CPI data which rose to 2.0% YoY from 1.6% (1.7% expected), this saw the Gbp/usd rally to highs of 1.7190 from lows around 1.7060 (last 1.7135). The Kiwi was a material underperformer and has traded down to around .8700 cents (from .8817 highs) after a weaker than expected Q2 CPI print and another fall in dairy giant Fonterra’s GDP Price Index which has lost 35% since its February highs.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: MARKET TAKES YELLEN COMMENTS AS USD BULLISH

Pivot: 1.35865, R1 1.36109, R2 1.36526, R3 1.37187, S1 1.35448, S2 1.35204, S3 1.34543. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3560/65, Very Minor 1.3535/40, Medium 1.3500/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3580/90, 1.3600/05, Medium 1.3640/55 zone

View: The Euro looks soft although has held in Asia. We like rallies to be capped between 1.3580/90, stops above 1.3630 (1.3640 best) for 1.3500/10 target.

Technical Comment: The Euro daily tech's look soft after the USD rally although the ADX is low, the 4H's are also heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are heavy.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE SETS NEW 2014 HIGHS AFTER STRONG CPI DATA (1.7190)

Pivot: 1.71318, R1 1.72041, R2 1.72646, R3 1.73973, S1 1.70713, S2 1.69991, S3 1.68663.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.7085/00, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, 1.7230/35.

View: The Cable was messy over the last 24 hours with the break of 1.7180 proving false as the USD gained ground. This move lower could extend to 1.7085/90, rallies should be capped near today's highs.

Technical Comment: The dailies have improved although lack momentum, the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are soft.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY IS AGAIN QUIET DESPITE VOL. IN OTHER MAJORS

Pivot: 101.622, R1 101.81, R2 101.938, R3 102.255, S1 101.494, S2 101.306, S3 100.989.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, 101.20/25, Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00, Minor 102.15/20.

View: With the USD in favour we view a slow move higher towards 102.15 as being most likely. Longs could stop under 101.40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming pointing to upside pressure, the 4H's are strong (the ADX is high), the 1H's are easing higher.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SLIDES ON BROAD BASED USD BUYING

Pivot: .93736, R1 .93981, R2 .94259, R3 .94782, S1 .93458, S2 .93213, S3 .92690.

Support Levels: Medium .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05, .9270/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9355/60, Very Minor .9370/80, .9395/00, Minor .9410/15.

View: The Aussie looks heavy, we see bounces being limited to .9360, .9375 max in this firm USD environment, stops need to be above .9405.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft, the 4H's also point to Aussie weakness, the 1H's complete the weak outlook (the Stochs/RSI are at the o/sold bounds).

To subscribe by email visit us here.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 17 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
Subscribe via email.

Market Summary
A firmer USD against the Euro again yesterday as Janet Yellens testimony to congress acknowledged that the U.S. labor market “continues” to improve faster than anticipated. Comments from the Fed’s Fisher included one that the Fed is “staying loose for too long”, whilst the U.S data releases remained robust with Industrial Production (IP) lifting 0.2% MoM in June following May’s 0.5% rise. According to the Fed, the Q2 rise in IP is the strongest in 4 years (5.5% annualized). The Euro now trades at 1.3530 (lows 1.3520). In the U.K. the unemployment rate fell to new 5 1/2 year lows at 6.5%, although wage growth was muted (average earnings +0.3% YoY in the 3 months to May), meaning real wage growth remains negative (Cable last 1.7140). The Aussie found support again around .9330; gains have been limited to .9371 so far. U.S. data will feature today with housing starts, initial jobless claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey being released.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO CONTINUES TO EASE ON CONTINUED TALK OF EXCESS U.S. EASY CREDIT

Pivot: 1.35402, R1 1.35595, R2 1.35936, R3 1.36469, S1 1.35062, S2 1.34869, S3 1.34335 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80, Very Minor 1.3460/65, Minor/Medium 1.3450/55.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3555/60, Minor 1.3575/90 zone, 1.3600/05, Medium 1.3640/55 zone

View: The Euro looks heavy although key support zones around 1.3500 and 1.3470 are fast approaching. We favour a day establishing levels between 1.3500/1.3560 but overwhelmingly favour shorts at the upper end of the range, stops >1.36.

Technical Comment: The dalies point to a continued heavy outlook (the ADX is beginning to lift), the 4H's are heavy but the RSI/Stochs are drifting up slightly in o/sold territory, the 1H's are mixed.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REACHES NEW 5.5 YR LOWS

Pivot: 1.71337, R1 1.71533, R2 1.71703, R3 1.72069, S1 1.71167, S2 1.70971, S3 1.70605.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7085/00, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7150/55, Very Minor 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05, 1.7230/35.

View: We favour more trading within 1.7100/1.7190 whilst the USD has a bid tone which should limit the upside. No bias for today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed/to slightly firm with low momentum , the 4H's are firming, the 1H's are easing higher (the MACD aside).

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FAILS AT 101.80.

Pivot: 101.701, R1 101.765, R2 101.86, R3 102.019, S1 101.606, S2 101.542, S3 101.383.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, 101.20/25, Minor 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00, Minor 102.15/20.

View: The Usd/jpy upside couldn't be maintained but we doubt this down-leg will extend far either. We are picking 101.35/40-101.75 on the day, 20/85 max.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed, the 4H's are deteriorating, the 1H's are also heavy with increasing momentum.

AUD/USD Intraday: SUPPORT BELOW .9330 HOLDS, .9370/75 CAPS SO FAR

Pivot: .93575, R1 .93852, R2 .94026, R3 .94477, S1 .93401, S2 .93124, S3 .92673.

Support Levels: Medium/Major .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05, .9270/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9370/80, .9395/00, Minor .9410/15.

View: The Aussie looks soft, we favour shorts for another look at key support at .9315/30. We see rallies being limited to .9375/80.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately soft, the 4H's are drifitng, the 1H's are easing (the MACD is featureless).

 

[Abdul2012]

Great analysis, I like it.

 

[MahiFX]

Thank you very much - we really value your feedback. ^MMF for MahiFX

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 18 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Unfortunate developments over the Ukraine set the tone in the markets today after Malaysian airlines flight MH-17 en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam was shot down over the Eastern Ukraine. Russian separatists are the most likely suspects for the act of aggression. The heightened geopolitical risk that favors safe-haven assets at the expense of risky assets saw equities sold on the news, whilst Gold and U.S./German bonds were in high demand. Moves in the majors were relatively mild as the Aussie fell from earlier highs of .9392 to lows around .9335, the Euro to 1.3512 (~1.3540 highs) and the Cable 1.7083 (~1.7144 highs), whilst the safe-haven JPY rallied to 101.08 highs against the USD. U.S. data releases were mixed. The Philly Fed survey rose to its highest level since March 2011, whilst U.S. housing starts disappointed. Fed hawk Bullard commented that he favored a first rate hike in Q1 2015 and that monetary policy is far from normal even as the economy nears the FOMC goals.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO EASES MODERATELY, SUPPORT AT 1.3500/10 NEARBY

Pivot: 1.35280, R1 1.35393, R2 1.35517, R3 1.35754, S1 1.35156, S2 1.35043, S3 1.34806 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3500/10, 1.3470/80, Very Minor 1.3460/65, Minor/Medium 1.3450/55.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3540/45, Very Minor 1.3555/60, Minor 1.3575/90 zone, 1.3600/05, Medium 1.3640/55 zone

View: The Euro is contained within 10/40. Its unlikely to remain this way though. We favour mild shorts at 35 and 55 stops above 1.3580.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain soft (the Stochs are o/sold, the ADX is rising), the 4H's are lifting from weak positions, the 1H's are mainly improving.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE DIPS BELOW 1.7100 FROM HIGHS SUB 1.7150.

Pivot: 1.71103, R1 1.71349., R2 1.71687, R3 1.72271, S1 1.70765, S2 1.70519, S3 1.69935.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7080/85, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65, Medium 1.7000/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7115/20, Very Minor 1.7150/55, 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05.

View: The Cable continues to look vulnerable, we favour shorts in this environment and expect rallies to stall ~1.7115. Two options, s/l above 50 or add ahead of 50, stops above 1.7190. We favour the latter as vol. is to be anticipated.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing (the ADX is low), the 4H's are also soft with increasing momentum, the 1H's are soft but picking up a touch.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY RISES ON SAFE HAVEN DEMAND AFTER MH-17 CRASH

Pivot: 101.337, R1 101.536, R2 101.898, R3 102.459, S1 100.975, S2 100.776, S3 100.215.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, Extremely Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00.

View: The Usd/jpy overshot on the downside as safe haven currencies were sought post MH-17. With the ADX still low pointing to minimal momentum we favour containment with 101.05/101.60. Sell bias.

Technical Comment: The dailies mainly point to downside pressure (DI- is rising), the 4H's are mixed (the Stochs/RSI are turning up to leave o/sold bounds, the MACD is heavy), the 1H's are firming.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE DECLINES AS RISK AVERSION HEIGHTENS ON MH-17

Pivot: .93633, R1 .93801, R2 .94082, R3 .94531, S1 .93352, S2 .93184, S3 .92735.

Support Levels: Medium/Major .9315/30 zone, Very Minor .9300/05, .9270/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9375/80, Very Minor .9395/00, .9410/15.

View: Expect more choppy trading today in light of global events, we favour selling between .9375 and .9395 stops above .9415.

Technical Comment: The dailies are largely tracking sideways with a falling ADX, the 4H's are mildly negative (although the RSI has ticked up), the 1H's are rising.

To subscribe by email and receive the Daily Score before 6:00 GMT each morning subscribe here.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 21 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Market Summary
A brief spike higher in the USD against the Euro and Cable and a rebound in risk appetite were the features in Friday’s trading. The Euro traded down to ~ 1.3490 from highs around 1.3536 in the process breaking through key support at 1.3500/10, these lows have not been seen since February. The Cable stumbled around 1.7115 to fall to ~ 1.7035, whilst the Aussie spiked to .9411 highs before quickly retreating to ~ .9365. Data releases were light and geopolitical concerns over the situation in the Ukraine and Gaza continue to garner the markets attention. Canadian CPI released on Friday for June came in at 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.3 % exp.) the highest reading since early 2012 (Usd/cad last 1.0735).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO TRADES TO LVLS NOT SEEN SINCE FEB. (~1.3490)

Pivot: 1.35174, R1 1.35436, R2 1.35621, R3 1.36068, S1 1.34989, S2 1.34727, S3 1.34280 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3485/90, Medium/Major 1.3470/80, Very Minor 1.3460/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3540/45, 1.3555/60, Minor 1.3575/90 zone.

View: The sharp bounce has us wary of selling again here despite failing at 35 on cue on Friday. Once 40/45 is broken this can trade to 1.3575.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still soft (the Stochs are o/sold and ticking up), the 4H's are lifting, the 1H's also point to S.T. strength.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE RETREATS TO ~1.7035 BUT QUICKLY REBOUNDS

Pivot: 1.70808, R1 1.71254, R2 1.71621, R3 1.72434, S1 1.70441, S2 1.69995, S3 1.69182

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.7030/35, Medium/Major 1.7000/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7095/00, Minor 1.7115/20, Very Minor 1.7150/55, 1.7185/90, 1.7200/05.

View: The Cable toppled at the expected level on Friday. The sharp bounce leaves a hole under current levels but this could extend back to 1.7115 again and 1.7145/50. We will leave today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still soft (although the RSI has ticked up a touch), the 4H's are improving, the 1H's are easing higher.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY TRACKS SIDEWAYS IN LACK-LUSTER TRADE

Pivot: 101.291, R1 101.492, R2 101.651, R3 102.011, S1 101.132, S2 100.931, S3 100.571.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.45/50, Extremely Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00.

View: The Usd/jpy is a yawn. We see 101.05/101.45 max. on the day and have no real bias.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft (led by the Stochs), the 4H's point to near-term downside pressure, the 1H's are also soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: RISK APPETITE RETURNS TO HELP THE AUSSIE TOP 94C BRIEFLY (.9411)

Pivot: .93796, R1 .94232, R2 .94546, R3 .95296, S1 .93482, S2 .93046, S3 .92296.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9360/65, Medium/Major .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9400/05, Minor .9410/15, Minor/Medium .9440/55 zone.

View: The Aussie extended a bit further than expected on Friday as risk sentiment recovered. With a quiet session data wise we see a .9365-.9415 range as being most likely.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (the MACD aisde) although the ADX is declining, the 4H's are firm (although the RSI and Stochs are tracking sideways), the 1H's are mainly soft.

Subscribe via email.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 22 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX -
Subscribe via email

Market Summary
Another subdued session for the FX majors yesterday as the markets tend towards the view that the air incident in the Ukraine is a one-off with limited global implications, although additional sanctions towards Russia may incite fresh volatility. The Euro rose to 1.3550 before settling back unchanged around 1.3525 currently. The Cable failed ahead of 1.7100, data released yesterday showed that U.K. house prices fell 0.8% in July, although remain up 6.5% YoY, lows were contained by 1.7055. The Aussie reversed from highs of .9397 to base at .9361 before reversing to trade back up to .9395 as the RBA Governor declined to make any comments about the currency strength at the annual Anika Foundation speech, unlike last year where comments durng this speech sent the Aussie over a cent lower. Focus for today will be on the U.S. CPI where the market will be on watch for a USD supportive release that may prompt the Fed to bring forward policy ‘normalization’, the Australian CPI will be released in Asian trade tomorrow.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO TIPS OFF 1.3550 BUT HOLDS 1.3510

Pivot: 1.35287, R1 1.35444, R2 1.35648, R3 1.36009, S1 1.35083, S2 1.34926, S3 1.34565 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3510/15, Very Minor 1.3485/90, Medium/Major 1.3470/80, Very Minor 1.3460/65.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3550/60, Minor 1.3575/90 zone.

View: With U.S. CPI on the calendar we prefer to leave. The break through 1.3540 has been false so far and we view the downside as more vulnerable.

Technical Comment: The dailies are little changed on yesterday (soft but improving a little), the 4H's are lifting, the 1H's are mainly tracking sideways

GBP/USD Intraday: QUIET TRADE IN THE CABLE, 1.7100 CAPS.

Pivot: 1.70773, R1 1.70984, R2 1.71211, R3 1.71649, S1 1.70546, S2 1.70335, S3 1.69897.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.7050/55, Very Minor 1.7030/35, Medium/Major 1.7000/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.7095/00, Minor 1.7115/20, Very Minor 1.7150/55, Minor 1.7185/90.

View: The Cable looks to be consolidating for now but is soft overall. We see rallies again stalling near 1.7100, 1.7120 max, with buyers emerging near 1.7030/35. No bias, and note U.S. CPI.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to slide lower, the 4H's are improving, the 1H's are firm with low momentum.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY EASES IN ASIAN TRADE NEARING 101.50.

Pivot: 101.331, R1 101.464, R2 101.534, R3 101.738, S1 101.261, S2 101.127, S3 100.924.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.15/20, Minor/Medium 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.45/50, Extremely Minor 101.60/65, Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.95/00.

View: The Usd/jpy is on the rise, 101.60 is the first target and then 101.75/80. On the downside 101.20/25 is the buy zone. We see 101.25-101.60, 75 max.

Technical Comment: The dailies are lifting slowly with low momentum (the MACD is flat), the 4H's are rising, the 1H's are firm but the Stochs/RSI are starting to drift lower.

https://d18azo516oxcnf.cloudfront.net/282/901e78c4-f65d-4bc6-b888-befc4d21eaa3f7f820f6-b6cf-48c2-a826-8d80746ce878-jpy2207.png[/URL]

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE IS CONTAINED BY .9360-.9400

Pivot: .93821, R1 .93933, R2 .94120, R3 .94419, S1 .93634, S2 .93522, S3 .93223.

Support Levels: Minor .9360/65, Medium/Major .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9400/05, Minor .9410/15, Minor/Medium .9440/55 zone.

View: We see little changing for the Aussie today with .9360-.9400, .9410/15 max. wrapping it up pre the Aus CPI tommorrow.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately firm (the MACD aside which is flat, the ADX is declining), the 4H's are ticking up (again the MACD is flat), the 1H's are firm.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 23 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
l
Subscribe to receive via email

Market Summary

The Euro continued to sink in trading yesterday reaching lows around 1.3457 against the USD as Existing Home Sales (2.6% vs. 2.0% exp. MoM) data and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (7 vs. 5 exp.) again showed the U.S. economy in a buoyant mood. Earlier the June U.S. headline CPI met expectations remaining stable at 2.1% YoY, although the core number at 1.9% undershot the 2.0% expectation. The Cable again retreated to trade down to ~1.7040 whilst the Aussie was the standout performer trading up to .9423 before subsiding to .9380 in later trade. Australian CPI data released in Asian trade today saw the Aussie again trade higher to .9439 after the RBA trimmed mean measure surpassed expectations at 0.8% QoQ (0.6% exp.) and 2.9% YoY (vs. 2.7% exp.). The BOE minutes will be the main feature of trading today whilst in NZ tomorrow the RBNZ cash rate announcement will be in focus where the market widely expects a fourth consecutive 25 bps rate hike to 3.5%.

Pre-European , Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: U.S. DATA BUOYS THE DOLLAR, WEIGHS ON THE EURO

Pivot: 1.34847, R1 1.35108, R2 1.35558, R3 1.36269, S1 1.34397, S2 1.34136, S3 1.33425 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3450/55, Minor/Medium 1.3410/20, Very Minor 1.3400/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3490/00, Minor/Medium 1.3510/15.

View: The Euro is trading poorly, we expect rallies to be capped between 1.3490 and 1.3515, some support exists at 1.3450 but we like this move to continue to 1.3410/20 over coming days.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain heavy and the momentum is increasing (the Stochs are o/sold, the ADX is rising), the 4H's are also heavy (the RSI/Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are drifting up.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EASES AS THE USD FIRMS. BOE MINUTES EYED TODAY

Pivot: 1.70630, R1 1.70847, R2 1.71054, R3 1.71478, S1 1.70423, S2 1.70206, S3 1.69782.

Support Levels: Minor 1.7030/35, Medium/Major 1.7000/10.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.7095/00, 1.7115/20, 1.7150/55.

View: The tech's favour shorts nearby and ahead of 1.7100, stops above 1.7120 but with the BOE minutes out we will leave today.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift lower (the ADX is rising sharply), the 4H's are easing higher, the 1H's are also rising.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EASES OFF 101.60 HIGHS

Pivot: 101.472, R1 101.609, R2 101.741, R3 102.010, S1 101.340, S2 101.203, S3 100.934.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.15/20, Minor/Medium 101.05/10, Medium 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.60/65, 101.80/85, 101.95/00.

View: We see little to jump the Usd/jpy out of its slumber and favour more price action inside of 101.20/101.60.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mildly positive but lack momentum (the ADX is drifting lower), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are mainly soft (esp. the Stochs/RSI).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE ROARS ON FIRM RBA TRIMMED MEAN CPI DATA

Pivot: .93923, R1 .94232, R2 .94529, R3 .95135, S1 .93626, S2 .93317, S3 .92711.

Support Levels: Minor .9400/15 zone, .9375/80, .9360/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9440/55 zone, Very Minor .9460/65, Minor .9500/10.

View: We are often uncomfortable putting our neck out after large moves and will wait it out for today. We expect the range to be contained by .9400/05 -.9455, .9465 max today though.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm with increasing momentum (the MACD is flat), the 4H's are firming with low momentum, the 1H's are strong.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 25 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

[Apologies for not posting yesterday's Daily Score]

Market Summary
Early falls in the Euro to 1.3437 were later reversed after the Eurozone July PMI data generally exceeded expectations. The manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9 (51.7 exp.) and the Services PMI 54.4 (52.7 exp.), this helped lift the Euro to 1.3485 session highs. The Cable by contrast was sent lower failing around 1.7055 as the June U.K. retail sales underwhelmed; ex-autos printed at -0.1% (0.3 % exp.) and the Gbp/usd fell to ~ 1.6965 lows. U.S. initial jobless claims + continuing claims showed an improving U.S. labor market. The Aussie was unable to build on its gains posted during the Asian session sliding to lows around .9402 (last .9410). The Usd/jpy had its best session of the week rising to 101.85 from lows ahead of 101.40, Japanese CPI data (ex. fresh food) released today met expectations rising 3.3% from a year earlier. Todays’ data calendar includes the German IFO business survey, U.K. 2Q GDP and U.S. durable goods orders.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: PMI DATA HELPS THE EURO BOUNCE FROM ~1.3437 SESSION LOWS.

Pivot: 1.34621, R1 1.34865, R2 1.35094, R3 1.35567, S1 1.34393, S2 1.34149, S3 1.33676 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3435/40, Minor/Medium 1.3410/20, Very Minor 1.3400/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3490/00, Minor/Medium 1.3510/15, Very Minor 1.3525/30.

View: The Euro bounce has us thinking this rally can extend to 1.3490/00, we prefer to play the short side though so would prefer to sell. Long term stop >1.3550, S.T. > 1.3530.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain weak (the ADX is still high, the Stochs/RSI are sidetracking in o/sold bounds), the 4H's are more mixed but still soft overall, the 1H's are largely flat.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE SELL-OFF EXTENDS ON WEAK RETAIL SALES

Pivot: 1.70024, R1 1.70381, R2 1.70892, R3 1.7176, S1 1.69513, S2 1.69156, S3 1.68288.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6960/65, Minor 1.6950/55, Very MInor 1.6935/40, Medium 1.6920/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6995/1.7010 zone, Very Minor 1.7030/35, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65, 1.7095/00.

View: The Cable sell-off has been decent, we still prefer shorts but will wait for 1.7025/35 before entering. Stops above 1.7065.

Technical Comment: The dailies are bearish with considerable momentum (the ADX is high), the 4H's are also heavy but beginning to improve, the 1H's are lifting.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY RALLIES TO ~ 101.85 HIGHS

Pivot: 101.696, R1 101.974, R2 102.136, R3 102.576, S1 101.534, S2 101.256, S3 100.816.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.55/60, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.15/20, Minor/Medium 101.05/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.85/90, 101.95/00, 102.10/15, Minor/Medium 102.20/30.

View: We prefer to buy between 101.45 and 101.60 for 101.85 and higher. Stops below 101.30. If selling we would wait till 102.15/25 stops >102.40.

Technical Comment: The dailies point to Usd/jpy strength although the ADX is still low (but rising), the 4H's are also strong (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are mixed.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE IS UNABLE TO BUILD ON EARLIER GAINS (.9402 LOWS)

Pivot: .94358, R1 .94602, R2 .95010, R3 .95662, S1 .93950, S2 .93706, S3 .93054.

Support Levels: Minor .9395/05, Minor/Medium .9370/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9425/35, Minor .9470/75, Minor/Medium .9500/10.

View: We prefer small longs ahead of .9395/.9400 stops under .9370 so would add at 85/90. Expect initial selling at 25/35 to cap before the rally extends to .9470 but don't have huge conviction.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm but have eased a little (the MACD continues to be flat), the 4H's are soft (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mainly heavy.

If you prefer to receive the Daily Score by email before 6:00 AM GMT every weekday you can subscribe here.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 28 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Market Summary
The Euro continued to sag in trade on Friday as the German IFO indicators disappointed. The Business Climate indicator fell to 108.0 from 109.7 (109.4 exp). The Current Assessment and Expectations indices also fell short of expectations. The Euro fell from highs ~ 1.3475 to lows of 1.3420 during the session. The Cable stumbled ahead of 1.7000 although 1.6960 has continued to hold the decline. The Aud/usd fell from .9425 highs on Friday to lows of .9386 in Asian trade today, whilst he Usd/jpy has topped at ~101.95 in Fridays trade. The U.S. will be in focus this week with both the first reading of Q2 GDP and the Fed’s FOMC meeting (exp. $10 bio taper to $25 bio per month) on Wednesday and the June Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday (~+200k exp.).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE GERMAN IFO WEIGHS ON THE EURO

Pivot: 1.34423, R1 1.34634, R2 1.34967, R3 1.35511, S1 1.34090, S2 1.33879, S3 1.33335 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3410/20, Very Minor 1.3400/05, 1.3380/85.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3435/40, 1.3455/60, Very Minor 1.3475/80, Minor 1.3490/00.

View: The Euro continuess to be friendless, rallies could extend to 1.3455/60, we favour shorts at 35/40 adding at 55, stops above 1.3490.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still soft, (the Stochs/RSI are o/sold, the ADX is high), the 4H's are also heavy with a high ADX, the 1H's are soft but tracking sideways for now.

GBP/USD Intraday: QUIET TRADE AS U.K. Q2 GDP MEETS EXPECTATIONS

Pivot: 1.69782, R1 1.69948, R2 1.70145, R3 1.70508, S1 1.69585, S2 1.69419, S3 1.69056.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6960/65, Minor 1.6950/55, Very MInor 1.6935/40, Medium 1.6920/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor/medium 1.6995/1.7010 zone, Very Minor 1.7030/35, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65, 1.7095/00.

View: The Cable looks soft, its 1.6960/1.7000 for now but we favour more downside. We favour selling in the 1.6995/1.7010 area, S.T. stops could be above 1.7040 although above 1.7065 is best.

Technical Comment: The dailies point to downside vulnerability (are heavy with a high ADX, the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are lifting from soft positions, the 1H's are mixed.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EASES OFF 101.95

Pivot: 101.832, R1 101.948, R2 102.056, R3 102.280, S1 101.724, S3 101.608, S3 101.384.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.70/75, 101.55/60, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.15/20, Minor/Medium 101.05/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 101.95/00, 102.10/15, Minor/Medium 102.20/30.

View: The Usd/jpy appears 101.70/101.95 for now, better long entry is ahead of 101.60, stops under 101.30, target 101.95 and 102.10.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm with low momentum (the MACD is featureless), the 4H's are declining, the 1H's are swinging higher (the MACD aside).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE TRADES INSIDE .9385/.9425 SINCE OUR LAST REPORT

Pivot: .94049, R1 .94166, R2 .94366, R3 .94683, S1 .93849, S2 .93732, S3 .93415.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9370/80, Minor .9360/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9425/35, .9470/75, Minor/Medium .9500/10.

View: The Aussie looks to have again lost its upside luster. We see rallies being capped around .9420/25 again, buyers at 70/80 should hold the downside on the day.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing lower, the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mixed.

To receive the Daily Score directly by email before 06:00 GMT please subscribe here.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 29 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Subscribe to receive directly by email before 06:00 GMT here.

Market Summary
Range trading was the theme in the majors yesterday as the market awaits key U.S. events on Wednesday. Second tier U.S. data releases pointed to continued solid momentum in the U.S. economy. The Markit Services PMI remained at 61.0 (vs. 59.8 exp.) and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey increased to 12.7, June Pending Homes Sales however fell 1.1% (+0.50% exp.). The Euro traded ~ 1.3426-1.3444, the Aussie .9386-.9416, whilst the Cable continued to see selling interest around the 1.7000 level (last 1.6975), the Usd/jpy is higher at 101.98 in Asian trade.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO SIDETRACKS AS THE MARKET AWAITS U.S. Q2 GDP AND FOMC

Pivot: 1.34367, R1 1.34463, R2 1.34534, R3 1.34701, S1 1.34296, S2 1.34200, S3 1.34033 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3410/20, Very Minor 1.3400/05, 1.3380/85.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3445/50, Very Minor 1.3455/60, 1.3475/80, Minor 1.3490/00.

View: The Euro is side-tracking for now but the downside is vulnerable. We sell rallies being capped near 1.3450, shorts to stop above 1.3490.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still heavy (the Stochs/RSI remain o/sold and the ADX high), the 4H's are also soft, the 1H's complete the soggy outlook (the MACD aside, which is flat).

GBP/USD Intraday: OFFERS AROUND 1.7000 CONTINUE TO CAP THE CABLE

Pivot: 1.69858, R1 1.69987, R2 1.70140, R3 1.70422, S1 1.69705, S2 1.69576, S3 1.69294.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6960/65, 1.6950/55, Very MInor 1.6935/40, Medium 1.6920/25.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.6995/1.7010 zone, Very Minor 1.7030/35, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65, 1.7095/00.

View: We continue to favour shorts with stops above 1.7040. Resistance around 1.7000 is growing, so late comers could target ahead of this area. 1.6920 is our first target.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy (the Stochs are o/sold, the ADX is high), the 4H's are also heavy and sliding (the ADX is declining), the 1H's complete the heavy outlook.

USD/JPY Intraday: PENDING EVENTS SEE THE USD/JPY TREAD WATER (101.98 LAST)

Pivot: 101.8401, R1 101.927, R2 101.996, R3 102.152, S1 101.771, S2 101.684, S2 101.528.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.70/75, 101.55/60, Extremely Minor 101.30/35, Very Minor 101.15/20, Minor/Medium 101.05/10.

Resistance Levels: Minor 101.95/00 (in now), Very Minor 102.10/15, Minor/Medium 102.20/30.

View: This move looks likely to head to 102.20/25, 102.00 needs to break, we see sell-offs being once again being limited to 101.75/80.

Technical Comment: The dailies are bullish with increasing momentum (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are also strong, the 1H's match.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE TRADES .9386-.9416 OVER THE LAST 24 HRS.

Pivot: .94015, R1 .94185, R2 .94303, R3 .94591, S1 .93897, S2 .93727, S3 .93439.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9370/80, Minor .9360/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9415/20, .9425/35, .9470/75, Minor/Medium .9500/10.

View: The Aussie is finding good selling ahead of .9420 and looks soft. We see the downside as being vulnerable with a target of .9360. .9415/20 should cap rallies.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately soft with declining momentum, the 4H's are tilting lower, the 1H's are pointing to near-term downside.

Thanks for reading.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 2930 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Subscribe to receive by email directly by 06:00 GMT by clicking here.

Market Summary
Another leg higher by the USD yesterday as the U.S. consumer confidence surged to 90.9, its highest levels since October 2008. The Euro declined off 1.3445 highs to lows of 1.3404 so far. The Cable suffered a similar fate sliding off a peak of 1.6995 as the BOE deputy governor’s speech raised concerns of a sluggish global recovery’s impact on future U.K growth (lows 1.6933). The Aussie slid to .9374 lows, whilst the Usd/jpy traded up to 102.16 from ~ 101.85 lows. All eyes are on the U.S today with a busy data schedule, which includes the advance Q2 GDP reading, the ADP employment report, and the all important FOMC Monetary Policy Statement ($10B reduction in bond purchases to $25B per month exp.).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ALL EYES ON THE FOMC AND U.S. DATA

Pivot: 1.34191, R1 1.34340, R2 1.34592, R3 1.34993, S1 1.33939, S2 1.33790, S3 1.33389 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3400/05, 1.3380/85, 1.3345/55, Medium/Major 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3445/50, Minor 1.3455/60, Minor/Medium 1.3475/80, Minor 1.3490/00.

View: The tech's are USD bullish across all majors we cover, not least so the Euro. Its all about the FOMC and data today though. A big day for the USD will likely see 1.3300 whilst we see 1.3475/80 containing the topside. Shorts favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are largely unchanged since yesterday (heavy with considerable momentum), the 4H's are also heavy with high momentum, the 1H's complete the bearish outlook.

GBP/USD Intraday: U.S. EVENTS TO DOMINATE TODAYS TRADE

Pivot: 1.69574, R1 1.69809, R2 1.70184, R3 1.70794, S1 1.69199, S2 1.68964, S3 1.68354.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6930/40, Medium 1.6920/25, Very Minor 1.6900/05, 1.6880/85, Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6955/60, Medium/Major 1.6995/1.7010, Very MInor 1.7030/35, Minor/Medium 1.7055/65.

View: Like the Euro the Cable tech's point to more downside. The next move will be data dependent though. 1.6995/1.7010 is key resistance, a good day for the USD should see 1.6850.

Technical Comment: Like the Euro the Cable dailies are heavy (the ADX is also high), the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mainly heavy.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY BREAKS 102 AS THE USD CONTINUES TO GAIN GROUND

Pivot: 102.033, R1 102.242, R2 102.368, R3 102.703, S1 101.907, S2 101.698, S3 101.363.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.90/95, 101.80/85, Minor 101.70/75, Very Minor 101.55/60, 101.30/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 102.20/30, Minor 102.35/40, Medium 102.65/80 zone.

View: Even the Usd/jpy can be whippy on the FOMC. The tech's are bullish but events will dictate. We see 101.50/60-102.65/80 containing and favour USD longs.

Technical Comment: The dailies point to higher levels ahead (the Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is rising and + DI > - DI ), the 4H's are also strong, the 1H's are easing.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE EASES IN LINE WITH A BROAD BASED USD RALLY.

Pivot: .93916, R1 .94088, R2 .94337, R3 .94758, S1 .93667, S2 .93495, S3 .93074.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9370/75, Minor .9360/65, Very Minor .9350/55, Minor .9335, Medium/Major .9315/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9400/05, Minor/Medium .9415/20, Minor .9425/35, .9470/75.

View: The tech's are moderately bearish. Its normally best to stand aside on days like today. We favour USD longs and expect .9425/35 to contain the topside, .9450/55 max. Key downside support is the .9315/30 zone.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing (the MACD aside which is flat, the ADX is also easing), the 4H's are tracking sideways at weak levels, the 1H's are also side-tracking.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 31 July 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Subscribe via email

Market Summary
A seesawing session for the majors yesterday in which the end result again saw the USD move higher. The run of firm U.S. data continued, this time it was the first estimate of Q2 GDP which surpassed expectations at 4.0% annualized (vs. 3.0% exp.). In addition the fourth estimate of the Q1 GDP number was also revised higher from -2.9% to -2.1%. The ADP employment report only marginally undershot expectations at +218K (vs. +230k exp.). The Euro fell to lows ~1.3366, and the Cable 1.6889, after the GDP data. Some of these losses were unwound after the FOMC meeting on dovish commentary on the U.S. labor market. The FOMC noted that even with the falling unemployment rate a significant underutilization of labor resources existed and reiterated that any move in the Fed Funds rate would arrive a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends. (Taper $US 10B per month to $USD 25B). The Aussie lows of .9301 were seen over the FOMC as were the Usd/jpy highs (~103.08).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO CONTINUES LOWER ON BULLISH U.S. DATA

Pivot: 1.33930, R1 1.34192, R2 1.34416, R3 1.34902, S1 1.33706, S2 1.33444, S3 1.32958 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3360/65, Minor 1.3345/55, Extremely Minor 1.3315/25, Medium/Major 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3405/10, Minor 1.3420/25, Minor/Medium 1.3445/50, Minor 1.3455/60, Minor/Medium 1.3475/80.

View: We continue to like the Euro lower, shorts ahead of 1.3420, stops above 1.3450 targeting 1.3290/00 for now. Long term bears need to stop above 1.3490 adding at 1.3440/45. We favour the latter.

Technical Comment: The Euro dailies continue to look poor (the Stochs/RSI are o/sold, the ADX is high), the 4H's are improving (-DI>+DI though), the 1H's are improving.

GBP/USD Intraday: POSITIVE U.S DATA ADDS TO THE CABLE MISERY

Pivot: 1.69193, R1 1.69490, R2 1.69847, R3 1.70501, S1 1.68836, S2 1.68539, S3 1.67885.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6880/85, 1.6845/55, Extremely Minor 1.6830/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6930/35, 1.6955/60, Medium/Major 1.6995/1.7010.

View: We like mild shorts in the 1.6925/35 area (noting the potential for a short squeeze) adding larger at 1.6955, stops above 1.7010. First target is 1.6855.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain heavy (and the ADX is high), the 4H's are improving from weak positions, the 1H's are also improving.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY IS A MAJOR BENEFACTOR OF THE POSITIVE U.S. DATA

Pivot: 102.637, R1 103.238, R2 103.684, R3 104.730, S1 102.191, S2 101.591, S3 100.544.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.70/75, Minor 102.35/40.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 103.05/10, 103.40/45, Minor 103.75/80.

View: The tech's are bullish and the ADX is displaying the highest levels since early 2014 (+DI>-DI). We like longs ahead of 102.65/75 adding at 102.40, stops under 102.20.

Technical Comment: The dailies are bullish with a high ADX (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are beginning to ease from strong levels (the ADX is also high), the 1H's are mainly drifting lower.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE VAULTS LOWER ON THE STRONG U.S. DATA, .9301 LOW

Pivot: .93404, R1 .93792, R2 .94271, R3 .95139, S1 .92924, S2 .92536, S3 .91669.

Support Levels: Minor .9295/00, Minor/Medium .9275/80, Very Minor .9265/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9330/35 (very close), Minor/Medium .9355/60, Very Minor .9370/75.

View: We favour Aud/usd shorts at .9330/35 adding around .9355, stops above .9390.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to be moderately bearish (the MACD is flat though), the 4H's are starting to tick higher from very weak levels, the 1H's are soft.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 01 August 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
Subscribe via email.

Market Summary
Falling global equity markets hogged the limelight yesterday (S&P 500 -2%, Dow -1.88%, DAX -1.94%) as Argentinian debt defaults, Russian sanctions, a cluster of poor earnings reports, and data that showed U.S. labor costs recording their biggest gains in more than 5-1/2 years in Q2 combined to rattle investors. The rising labour costs struck a cord with the market as the underutilized labor market was cited as a concern during this weeks FOMC meeting prior to any consideration of future Fed rate hikes. The Euro is slightly lower in trade today at 1.3390 (up from ~1.3370 lows), the Cable also continued on its downward trajectory sliding to ~1.6857 lows from 1.6926, whilst the Aussie slid from .9325 highs to .9280 (last .9292). Today sees another busy U.S. data schedule that is dominated by the key Nonfarm Payrolls report (expectations of +230k, and a steady unemployment rate at 6.1%).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: U.S. NF PAYROLLS REPORT TO PROVIDE THE NEXT CUE FOR THE EURO

Pivot: 1.33877, R1 1.34036, R2 1.34167, R3 1.34457, S1 1.33746, S2 1.33587, S3 1.33297 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3360/65, Minor 1.3345/55, Extremely Minor 1.3315/25, Medium/Major 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3405/10, 1.3420/25, Minor/Medium 1.3445/50, Minor 1.3455/60, Minor/Medium 1.3475/80.

View: Payrolls will dictate the next leg but we continue to have a strong +USD bias. We would be surprised to see 1.3450 breached, 1.3475 max. A strong number brings 1.3290/1.3300 into play. Shorts favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still very weak (the ADX is high, the Stochs are lifting a touch), the 4H's are weak but drifting moderately higher, the 1H's are mainly sidetracking.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE CONTINUES TO LOSE GROUND (~1.6857 LOWS)

Pivot: 1.6890, R1 1.69228, R2 1.69596, R3 1.70292, S1 1.68532, S2 1.68204, S3 1.67508.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6845/55, Extremely Minor 1.6830/35

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6890/95, Minor/Medium 1.6930/35, Minor 1.6955/60, Medium/Major 1.6995/1.7010.

View: We like the Cable lower but payrolls pose a real risk as usual. We favour 1.6930 capping, 1.6960 max. on a very poor number. 1.6800 would be the first real target on a USD bullish out-turn.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain heavy with a high ADX indicating significant momentum, the 4H's are also weak (although the Stochs are lifting), the 1H's are turning lower.

USD/JPY Intraday: QUIET TRADE IN THE USD/JPY IN THE RUN-UP TO PAYROLLS

Pivot: 102.841, R1 102.959, R2 103.124, R3 103.407, S1 102.676, S2 102.558, S3 102.275.

Support Levels: Minor 102.70/75, 102.35/40, 102.20/25.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 103.05/10, 103.40/45, Minor 103.75/80.

View: We favour longs, payrolls could make the trade messy though. We see 102.40 limiting the downside, 102.20 max. Upside targets would be 103.45 and 103.75.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain strong and the ADX is high (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are easing from firm positions (esp. the Stochs), the 1H's are firming.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE DECLINES TO SUB 93C LOWS (.9280).

Pivot: .93023, R1 .93254, R2 .93551, R3 .94079, S1 .92726, S2 .92495, R3 .91967

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9275/80, Very Minor .9265/70, .9250/55, Minor/Medium .9225/30, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9315/20, Minor .9330/35, Minor/Medium .9355/60, Very Minor .9370/75.

View: We favour Aussie shorts, payrolls could hurt though. We see ~.9355 capping a poor number in this market. The major downside target is .9200/10.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy with a moderately increasing ADX, the 4H's are improving, the 1H's are mixed.

Interactive currency heat maps are available on the MahiFX blog/Daily Score.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 04 August 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
Subscribe via email

Market Summary
Moderate gains for most of the majors against the USD on Friday after a weaker than expected U.S. NF Payroll’s report release. The Cable was left behind however after a poor July Markit Manufacturing PMI print earlier in the day which weakened to 55.4 from 57.5 (vs. 57.2 exp.). The Cable eased from highs just shy of 1.6900 to lows around 1.6815 so far. The U.S non-farm payrolls printed at 209k vs. the 230k expectations whilst the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.2% helped by a higher labor force participation rate. The lack of monthly growth in average hourly earnings also tempered the Fed hawks. The Euro rally was capped at the familiar 1.3445/50 resistance whilst the Usd/jpy retreated to lows around 102.33 (102.65 last). The Aussie is trading at .9320 currently having peaked at .9336 in Fridays trade, seasonally-adjusted retail sales for June released today rose 0.6% (vs. 0.4% exp.).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO FIRMS SLIGHTLY POST THE PAYROLLS DATA, 1.3445/50 CAPS.

Pivot: 1.34170, R1 1.34556, R2 1.34834, R3 1.35498, S1 1.33892, S2 1.33506, S3 1.32842 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3400/05, Minor/Medium 1.3360/65, 1.3345/55.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.3445/50, Minor 1.3455/60, Minor/Medium 1.3475/80.

View: We still favour the USD higher overall. We prefer to set shorts, some around 1.3445 adding at 1.3470/75, stops above 1.3500.

Technical Comment: The dailies are lifting from weak positions (esp. the Stochs, the ADX is high but easing), the 4H's are starting to ease, the 1H's are easing.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FAILS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE POST PAYROLLS USD SELL-OFF.

Pivot: 1.68434, R1 1.68701, R2 1.69200, R3 1.69966, S1 1.67935, S2 1.67668, S3 1.66902.

Support Levels: Very MInor 1.6800/05, 1.6785/90, 1.6760/70.

Resistance Levels: MInor 1.6855/65, Minor/Medium 1.6890/95

View: The Cable looks awful and we expect rallies to stall around 1.6855/60, stops on shorts above 1.6900.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very weak and the ADX is high, the 4H's are also heavy (with a high ADX), the 1H's are drifting.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EASES IN LINE WITH THE WEAKER USD ON FRIDAY

Pivot: 102.662, R1 102.986, R2 103.361, R3 104.061, S1 102.287, S2 101.962, S3 101.263.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.30/35, Minor 102.20/25.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.75/80, Minor 103.05/10, Very Minor 103.40/45.

View: The Usd/jpy may snap around between 102.30/102.80 for a day or two but we like it higher. Longs at the lower end of the range, stops under 101.95.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm (the RSI/Stochs have eased though), the 4H's are sliding, the 1H's are firming.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE REGAINS GROUND AFTER PAYROLLS.

Pivot: .93081, R1 .93408, R2 .93685, R3 .94289, S1 .92804, S2 .92477, S3 .91873.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9295/00, Medium .9275/80, Very Minor .9265/70, .9250/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9335/40, Minor/Medium .9355/50, Very Minor .9370/75.

View: We still like the USD overall but the Aussie looks better for now. We favour waiting for .9350/.9360 to sell with stops above .9390, note RBA tommorrow.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly soft (the RSI/Stochs have ticked up a touch), the 4H's are moving higher, the 1H's are also firming.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 06 August 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
Subscribe by email.

Market Summary
It was finally the Cable’s turn to outperform yesterday after a stronger than expected July Services PMI release which rose to 8-month highs of 59.1, the ensuing short covering Gbp/usd rally saw ~ 1.6888 highs (from ~1.6845 lows). The USD had a good session against the other majors covered. The Euro was seen declining on sluggish Services PMI data, particularly so the Italian data which saw a notable decline to 52.8 (vs. 54.0 exp. and 53.9 prior). The Euro eased from highs of 1.3425 to lows of 1.3358 so far. The Aussie fell from highs of .9343 set early yesterday to ~ .9291 lows in Asian trade today. The July HSBC China Services PMI data released yesterday fell from 53.1 to 50.0, the poorest reading since the series began in 2005. In the U.S. the non-manufacturing ISM PMI rose to its strongest levels since Dec. 2005 (58.7). The Usd/jpy rallied to highs of ~102.92 before retreating to 102.47 as the JPY regained favor on safe haven demand as the Ukraine situation continues to be delicately poised.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO DECLINE RESUMES ON WEAK PMI DATA

Pivot: 1.33864, R1 1.34146, R2 1.34531, R3 1.35198, S1 1.33479, S2 1.33197, S3 1.32530 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3345/55, Extremely Minor 1.3315/20, Medium 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3380, 1.3395/00, Medium 1.3445/50, Minor 1.3455/60.

View: We favour shorts at 1.3375/80 and 95/00 for 1.3350 and 1.3300. Stops above 1.3450.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy and deteriorating again (the ADX remains elevated), the 4H's are also heavy with a high ADX, the 1H's are improving.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE BOUNCES ON BETTER THEN EXP. SERVICES PMI DATA

Pivot: 1.68730, R1 1.69006, R2 1.69158, R3 1.69586, S1 1.68578, S2 1.68302, S3 1.67874.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6840/45, Minor 1.6800/10, 1.6785/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6890/95, 1.6925/35, 1.6950/60.

View: We favour shorts at ~1.6895 and ~1.6925 with stops above 1.6960, conviction not huge.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still heavy but improving (the ADX is high and - DI>+DI), the 4H's are mildly +ve, the 1H's are mainly soft.

https://d18azo516oxcnf.cloudfront.net/293/a841a79a-355c-4197-ad71-1982579de589a86e8408-a7ae-4f58-81eb-8d0d9d8cc703-gbp0608.png

USD/JPY Intraday: EARLY GAINS IN THE USD/JPY TO ~ 102.92 REVERSE ON JPY SAFE HAVEN DEMAND

Pivot: 102.662, R1 102.861, R2 103.123, R3 103.584, S1 102.400, S2 102.201, S3 101.740.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.40, Minor 102.30/35, 102.20/25.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.95/00, Minor/Medium 103.05/10, Very Minor 103.40/45.

View: We continue to view the 30/45 zone as the place to buy despite late safe haven Jpy demand. Good to see vol. picking up, stops under 101.95

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly +ve (the Stochs aside) with a high ADX, the 4H's are easing, the 1H's are also soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SLIDES TO LOWS NEAR .9290 FROM EARLIER HIGHS

Pivot: .93138, R1 .93337, R1 .93633, R3 .94128, S1 .92842, S2 .92643, S3 .92148.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9290, Medium .9275/80, Very Minor .9265/70, .9250/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9335/45, .9355/60.

View: We favour shorts targeting .9320/30 to get set adding at 40/45 (tough to see the latter), stops above .9360. First strong demand should reside in the .9270/80 area.

Technical Comment: The dailies are a mixed bag but soft on balance (-DI>+DI, high ADX), the 4H's are soft (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mainly side-tracking.

Interactive currency heat maps, enlargeable charts and other bells and whistles available at The Daily Score webpage.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score - 07 August 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Market Summary
A large CME sell order in the Usd/jpy rumored to be the result of a ‘fat fingers’ trade saw the Usd/jpy dramatically drop from 102.30 to 101.80 yesterday (~102.60 highs earlier). The bout of USD selling helped the Aussie snap briefly up to .9376 highs. The Aud/usd lurched lower in Asian trade to lows of .9280 after weaker than expected July employment data which saw the jobless rate jump to a 12 year high of 6.4% (6.0% exp.), surpassing U.S. unemployment levels for the first time since 2007. The Euro moved lower in early trade yesterday to lows of ~1.3332 as soft data weighed (Italian Q2 GDP -0.2% vs. +0.2% exp., German June factory orders -3.2% MoM, vs. +1.0% exp.). The Cable also retreated again to lows ahead of 1.6820 after disappointing June Industrial Production data (0.3% MoM vs. 0.6% exp.). The ECB and BOE interest rate meetings are in focus today, accompanying commentary will be the focus, as the market expects no policy change.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO RECOVERS OFF LOWS, ECB IN FOCUS TODAY

Pivot: 1.33677, R1 1.34023, R2 1.34215, R3 1.34753, S1 1.33485, S2 1.33139, S3 1.32601 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3330/35, 1.3315/20, Medium 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3395/00, Medium 1.3445/50.

View: The Hammer candle has us wary of a topside push. We favour longs for a move to 1.3445 but the ECB makes this trade tough so we will leave. Stops could be under 1.3350.

Technical Comment: The dailies have improved off weak levels (watch for a Macd/signal line cross buy alert, the ADX is high and -DI>+DI though), the 4H's are improving, the 1H's are marginally +ve.

GBP/USD Intraday: SOGGY CABLE REOUNDS AFTER WEAK JUNE IP DATA, BOE TODAY.

Pivot: 1.68543, R1 1.68868, R2 1.69202, R3 1.69860, S1 1.68210, S2 1.67885, S3 1.67226.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6840/45, 1.6820/25, Minor 1.6800/10, 1.6785/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6890/95, 1.6925/35, 1.6950/60.

View: We are unsure on the Cable here and with the BOE out we will leave. The techs are still weak overall so shorts toward 1.6900 are favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak but have improved a touch (esp. the Stochs), the 4H's are improving, the 1H's are mixed.

USD/JPY Intraday: LARGE CME USD SELL ORDER SEES USD/JPY TRADE BELOW 101.80.

Pivot: 102.175, R1 102.568, R2 103.033, R3 103.892, S1 101.709, S2 101.316, S3 100.458.

Support Levels: Medium 101.70/80, Very MInor 101.55/60, 101.40/45, 101.30/35.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.25/30, Minor 102.35/40, Extremely Minor 102.75/80.

View: The large Usd/jpy vol. caught us despite noticing the recent vol. pick-up. We will let it settle and expect volatility inside of 101.75/102.75 in coming days.

Technical Comment: The dailies have swung lower, the 4H's are lifting from weak positions, the 1H's are mainly firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE LOSES GAINS FROM .9376 HIGHS AFTER JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE JUMP (TO 6.4%).

Pivot: .93397, R1 .93875, R2 .94213, R3 .95208, S1 .93060, S2 .92582, S3 .91766.

Support Levels: Medium .9275/80, Minor .9250/55, Very Minor .9225/30, Medium .9200/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9325/30, Very Minor .9355/60, Minor .9375/80.

View: The Aussie range caught us as a large USD sell flow hit the market but the bears are in control again. We will leave today but favour shorts towards .9325/30.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain soft with a high ADX, the 4H's are also weak (the MACD aside which is flat), the 1H's complete the poor outlook.

Subscribe via email.

 

[MahiFX]

The Daily Score 12 August 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
August 12, 2014

Market Summary
Tepid ranges in the covered majors yesterday. The CAD gained 0.4% after a stronger than expected July Housing Starts (YoY) number which printed at +200k vs. +193k exp (last 1.0940). European equities followed the U.S. lead (FTSE +1%, DAX +1.9%, CAC +1.2%) which rallied on Friday as tensions in the Ukraine were seen to be moderating. The Euro trades at 1.3375, the Cable 1.6770 and the Aussie .9260 last (from .9284 highs, .9245 lows). The Aussie firmed off its lows after a stronger than expected NAB Business Confidence survey released in Asian trade today. The German and European ZEW economic confidence numbers will be released later where the largely waning recent confidence conditions are expected to continue.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ZEW SENTIMENT NUMBERS TODAY

Pivot: 1.33925, R1 1.34043, R2 1.34239, R3 1.34552, S1 1.33730, S2 1.33612, S3 1.33298 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3365/70, Minor 1.3330/35.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3430/35, Medium/Major 1.3445/50, Very Minor 1.3475/80.

View: The Euro continues to trade poorly, a break of 65 opens up 30/35 again. We are wary of selling here despite the poor techs and favour waiting for 1.3430 or a break of 1.3330.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed/to heavy and the ADX is high, the 4H's are also soft (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are ticking higher.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE SIDETRACKS AS INVESTORS AWAIT KEY DATA TOMORROW

Pivot: 1.67844, R1 1.67985, R2 1.68101, R3 1.68358, S1 1.67728, S2 1.67587, S3 1.67330.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6760/65, Minor 1.6730/35, Medium 1.6690/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6795/05, Minor 1.6815/20, Extremely Minor 1.6840/45.

View: The Cable continues to look anemic. We favour continued downside on a break of 1.6760, otherwise we will target small shorts at 1.6795, adding at 1.6815.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to trade poorly with a high ADX (indicating high momentum), the 4H's are also soft, the 1H's are soft (although the RSI/Stochs are ticking up).

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY DRIFTS MODERATELY HIGHER IN ASIAN TRADE, 102.00 HOLDS YESTERDAY

Pivot: 102.146, R1 102.268, R2 102.347, R3 102.548, S1 102.067, S2 101.945, S3 101.744.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.00/05, Very Minor 101.70/75, Minor 101.50/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.35/40, 102.45/50, 102.75/80.

View: We favour longs ahead of 102.10/15 for 102.90 later in the week. Stops under 101.70, tight would be under 102.00 (favour former)

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting higher (the MACD least so), the 4H's are also firming, the 1H's point to continued Usd/jpy strength.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE EASES TO ~.9245 LOWS FROM A .9284 PEAK.

Pivot: .92694, R1 .92799, R2 .92971, R3 .93248, S1 .92522, S2 .92417, S3 .92140.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9240/45, Very Minor .9225/30, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9275, Minor .9285/95, .9325/30.

View: We favour a move back to .9285/90 with the downside to be contained by .9240 on the day, shorts favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft with a high ADX, the 4H's are edging higher (-DI>+DI though), the 1H's are mixed.

To receive 'The Daily Score' to your inbox daily, sign up here.

 

[MahiFX]

Gbp selloff accelerates on the boe inflation report (1.6680 last)

The Daily Score - 14 August 2014
A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The Cable was again a standout loser in trading yesterday as the market reacted to a dovish BOE inflation report. The report’s focus on subdued wages growth (including outlook downgrades) saw the Cable fall from session highs around 1.6840 to lows of 1.6670. This report came shortly after the U.K. June employment report showed average earnings falling by 0.2% YoY. The Euro firmed from lows of ~1.3342 to 1.3415 highs (last 1.3360) as the market reacted to a poor U.S. July retail sales report which saw the headline series unchanged on the month (+0.2% exp.). The Aussie firmed to .9320 highs on the release (last .9295). Euro-zone Q2 GDP and July CPI data will feature today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO PEAKS AT 1.3415 AFTER A POOR U.S. RETAIL SALES NUMBER

Pivot: 1.33742, R1 1.34058, R2 1.34471, R3 1.35200, S1 1.33329, S2 1.33013, S3 1.32284 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3340/45, Medium 1.3330/35, 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3415/20, Minor 1.3430/35, Major 1.3445/50.

View: The Euro is locked inside 1.3330-1.3435/45. The tech's are soft so we have a mild bias to sell towards 1.3420/30, stops above 1.3450, sub 1.3330 opens additional downside.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to be soft but aren't deteriorating significantly (the ADX is high), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are also weak.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE BOE INFLATION REPORT DENTS THE CABLE

Pivot: 1.67397, R1 1.67943, R2 1.69002, R3 1.70608, S1 1.66338, S2 1.65791, S3 1.64186.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6665/70, Very Minor 1.6650/60, Minor/Medium 1.6600/05.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6730/35, Minor/Medium 1.6755/60.

View: The Cable looks awful but has fallen over 5c in under a month. We favour shorts but won't sell here, preferring to wait for ~1.6750. Spec punt could be long with stop under 1.6650 (high risk)

Technical Comment: The dailies are very heavy and the ADX is high, the 4H's are also heavy (the RSI/Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are improving (the DMI aside).

USD/JPY Intraday: USD/JPY SIDELINED YESTERDAY

Pivot: 102.398, R1 102.569, R2 102.712, R3 103.026, S1 102.255, S2 102.084, S3 101.770.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.20/25, 102.00/05, 101.70/75.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.75/80, Minor/Medium 102.90/00.

View: We continue to favour longs, latecomers could target 102.35/40 for 102.90/00, stops under 20 (tight) or 102.00 (favour the latter).

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm, the 4H's are also moving higher (the ADX is high), the 1H's point to further strength.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE REGAINS THE 93C HANDLE (.9320 HIGHS).

Pivot: .92956, R1 .93284, R2 .93523, R3 .94090, S1 .92717, S2 .92389, S3 .91822.

Support Levels: Minor .9285/90, Very Minor .9270/75, Medium .9240/45.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9320/30, Very Minor .9340/45, .9355/60.

View: We are happy to be square here, shorts at 15/20 panned out, we will look to trade .9275-.9320/25 with initial support at .9285. Short side favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed, the 4H's are deteriorating, the 1H's are heavy also.

To receive The Daily Score direct to your inbox by 6:00 AM Monday-Friday please subscribe here.

 

[MahiFX]

Sellers above 1.3400 cap the Euro post GDP

The Daily Score for 15th August 2014
A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Market Summary
Soft Eurozone Q2 GDP data was the highlight in trading yesterday after a flat outcome was posted against expectations of a 0.1% rise. German GDP also fell, by 0.2% QoQ (vs. a flat exp.). The Euro shrugged off the data however, as perhaps many market participants had feared an even worse outcome. The Euro rallied from lows around 1.3350 set before the data schedule to 1.3408 highs, but has since retreated to 1.3360. The Cable edged marginally lowered to 1.6657 but trades at 1.6685 currently. Buyers continued to be present on Usd/jpy dips (lows 102.30, 102.50 last). The Aussie traded higher again to .9328 eclipsing prior highs as weekly U.S. initial jobless claims disappointed by rising 311K against the 295K expectations.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO SHRUGS OFF WEAK GDP DATA (1.3408 HIGHS).

Pivot: 1.33737, R1 1.33993, R2 1.34334, R3 1.34931, S1 1.33396, S2 1.33140, S3 1.32543 (All pivots are 5 pm daily).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3340/45, Medium/Major 1.3330/35, Medium 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3410/20, 1.3430/35, Major 1.3445/50.

View: Range trading for now is the order of the day although the trend is heavy. Key support is ~1.3330, Key Res. ~1.3445/50. Shorts favoured from around 1.3405/10 to 40. Stops above 1.3450.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to track heavily with an elevated ADX, the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are soft but tracking sideways for now.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FINDS A TEMPORARY BASE AHEAD OF 1.6650

Pivot: 1.66806, R1 1.67036, R2 1.67205, R3 1.67604, S1 1.66637, S2 1.66407, S3 1.66008.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6650/60, Medium 1.6600/05.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6695/00, 1.6730/35, Minor/Medium 1.6755/60.

View: Unchanged from yesterday. The bears are in control, we favour waiting for ~1.6750 to sell. Spec longs would stop under 1.6650.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to be bearish with a high ADX (the RSI/Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs aside), the 1H's are mixed.

USD/JPY Intraday: SUPPORT CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ON USD/JPY DIPS (102.30 LOWS).

Pivot: 102.473, R1 102.635, R2 102.818, R3 103.163, S1 102.290, S2 102.128, S3 101.783.

Support Levels: Minor 102.20/25, 102.00/05, 101.70/75.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.75/80, Minor/Medium 102.90/00.

View: We continue to favour longs, tight stops under 102.20, wider under 102.00 (latter is our preference). Initial target is 102.90/00.

Technical Comment: The daily firm tone remains, the 4H's are firm but momentum is declining, the 1H's are firm (although the RSI/Stochs are easing)

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE TRADES BACK UP TO .9328 HIGHS

Pivot: .93107, R1 .93365, R2 .93536, R3 .93964, S1 .92936, S2 .92679, S3 .92250.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9285/90, Very Minor .9270/75, Medium .9240/45.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9325/30 (very close), Very Minor .9340/45, .9355/60.

View: The current momentum is to the topside for now, we will look to shorts around .9340 adding at ~.9350/55 (Kumo cloud base), stops above .9380. Bulls could target longs at .9310, stops <.9285.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly firming led by the Stochs (the ADX is easing), the 4H's are moderately firm, the 1H's are ticking higher.

Subscribe to the Daily Score here.