Market Summary and Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

[MahiFX]

Gbp boosted in asian trade on weekend carney comments (1.6730 last)

The Daily Score - A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

The CHF and JPY ‘safe haven’ currencies were in demand on Friday after reports emerged that Ukrainian troops had destroyed part of a Russian armed convoy. The Usd/jpy fell sharply from highs above 102.70 to ~102.13 lows after the news (102.35 last). The Aud/usd fell from .9335 highs to .9298 lows on the heightened risk aversion. The Cable opened higher in Asian trade after comments over the weekend from the BOE governor Mark Carney that the BOE may increase rates before real wages increase. (1.6736 highs, 1.6730 last). Fridays U.S. data releases were mixed as July industrial production beat expectations whilst weakness was observed in the August Empire survey and the Michigan Confidence future conditions index. The Euro peaked around 1.3412 on Friday but is trading at 1.3395 currently.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: SELLERS AGAIN EVIDENT ABOVE 1.3400 IN THE EURO

Pivot: 1.33903, R1 1.34220, R2 1.34436, R3 1.34969, S1 1.33687, S2 1.33370, S3 1.32837. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3340/45, Medium/Major 1.3330/35, Medium 1.3290/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3410/20, Minor 1.3430/35, Major 1.3445/50.

View: The Euro looks better today and we favour a higher base limited to 70/80, offers above 1.3415 should cap for now, 1.3430/35 max. today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are beginning to lift from weak levels (-DI>+DI though), the 4H's are mainly firming (the DMI aside), the 1H's are firm.

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GBP/USD Intraday: GBP BOOSTED ON W/E CARNEY COMMENTS

Pivot: 1.66906, R1 .1.67041, R2 1.67152, R3 1.67398, S1 1.66795, S2 1.66660, S3 1.66414.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6690/00, Very Minor 1.6670/75, Minor/Medium 1.6650/60, Medium 1.6600/05.

Resistance Levels: Very MInor 1.6730/40, Minor Medium 1.6755/60, Very Minor 1.6795//00, Minor/Medium 1.6815/20.

View: The Carney comments have helped the Cable. We now favour S.T. longs for 1.6755/60 and 1.6815/20, buying dips around 1.6715/20. Tight stops would be under 1.6690 (we will stop under 70, although 1.6650 is best).

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy but beginning to improve (the Stochs/RSI are lifting in the o/sold bound), the 4H's are firming, the 1H's are strong with a rising ADX.

https://d18azo516oxcnf.cloudfront.net/304/e19ddfa3-524d-4cd0-b51b-d945e5500f6216e08b0c-7990-485b-bca6-78655631db4f-gbp1808.png

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY IS BOLSTERED ON SAFE HAVEN DEMAND

Pivot: 102.401, R1 102.666, R2 102.979, R3 103.557, S1 102.088, S2 101.823, S3 101.245.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 102.00/10, Minor 101.70/75.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.75/80, Minor/Medium 102.90/00.

View: The Jpy momentum has turned for now having failed around 102.70. We favour rallies to stumble around 102.45/50 with 102.00/10 limiting the downside. Long bias overall ahead of 102.00.

Technical Comment: The dailies are now declining from firm levels, the 4H's are also declining, the 1H's are also trading poorly.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE EASES FROM .9335 HIGHS ON HEIGHTENED RISK AVERSION

Pivot: .93181, R1 .93384, R2 .93549, R3 .93917, S1 .93016, S2 .92813, S3 .92445.

Support Levels: Medium .9285/90, Very Minor .9270/75, Medium .9240/45.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9340/45, .9355/60.

View: The Aussie appears to be happy range trading for now. Expect some vol. with the RBA minutes tom., we still have a moderate bias to sell, small shorts at 40 adding at 50/55 (Kumo cloud base) stops above .9380.

Technical Comment: The dailies are slowly firming (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are mixed to firm, the 1H's are mixed (MACD/RSI flat, Stochs firm).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score for 25 August 2014

Market Summary
The USD traded firmly on Friday and opened higher again in Asian trade this morning after the Jackson Hole meeting comments. Fed chair Janet Yellen struck similar lines to her FOMC comments (still significant slack in the labor market). ECB president Draghi reiterated that the ECB stands ready to provide the Eurozone with more policy accommodation whilst the BOJ Governor Kuroda indicated that the BOJ would keep policy easy until price stability is achieved. The BOE Deputy Governor Broadbent suggested U.K. rate increases would be gradual with the path likely being ‘materially different’ than in the past. The Euro fell to 1.3181 lows (from Friday highs of 1.3297), the Cable 1.6534 lows (from 1.6595 highs), and the Aussie .9290 lows (from .9330 highs), whilst the Usd/jpy topped around 104.30. (from lows ~103.50 on Friday).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO DECLINE CONTINUES ON JACKSON HOLE COMMENTS

Pivot: 1.32532, R1 1.32858, R2 1.33294, R3 1.34056, S1 1.32096, S2 1.31770, S3 1.31008 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3180/85, Extremely Minor 1.3160/65, 1.3150/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3220/25, Minor/Medium 1.3235/45, Medium/Major 1.3290/00, Medium 1.3330/35.

View: We favour shorts with the bounce limited to 35/40, possibly 20. Stops above 1.3300 target being 1.3105.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain heavy (the ADX is high, the Stochs/RSI are o/sold), the 4H's are also very weak, the 1H's are gaining.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE OPENS LOWER IN ASIAN TRADE (~1.6534 LOWS).

Pivot: 1.65764, R1 1.65916, R2 1.66125, R3 1.66486, S1 1.65555, S2 1.65403, S3 1.65042.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6530/35, 1.6515/20, 1.6480/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6560/70 (in now), Medium 1.6595/05, Minor 1.6655/60.

View: We continue to favour shorts although this bounce could extend to 1.6595, stops above 1.6660 are best.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy with an elevated ADX (the Stochs/RSI are o/sold), the 4H's are also heavy, the 1H's are lifting.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY SEES HIGHS NEAR 104.30 ON YELLEN/KURODA COMMENTS

Pivot: 103.879, R1 104.253, R2 104.565, R3 105.251, S1 103.567, S2 103.193, S3 102.507.

Support Levels: Minor 103.95/00, Extremely Minor 103.75, Minor 103.40/50, 103.05/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 104.30/35, Very Minor 104.65/75, Minor/Medium 104.85/95.

View: Techs continue to point to the upside, tight stops on favoured longs would be under 103.90. L.T. players with more risk tolerance would stop <103.50, adding to longs at 00/05, and 75/80.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very strong (the ADX is very high, the Stochs/RSI are o/bght), the 4H's are firm (the ADX is declining), the 1H's are tracking sideways (the Stochs are falling).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE OPENS LOWER IN ASIAN TRADE (.~.9290 LOWS).

Pivot: .93129, R1 .93334, R2 .93502, R3 .93875, S1 .92961, S2 .92756, S3 .92383.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9285/90, Minor .9270/75, Medium .9240/45, Very Minor .9225/30.

Resistance Levels: Medium .9335/45, Minor .9355/60.

View: We favour shorts near Fridays' highs (.9330) with stops above .9360, a rangy day is likely with bids at 85/90 to contain for now.

Technical Comment: The dailies are drifting higher (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are lifting a touch, the 1H's are firming (the MACD is flat).

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score for 29 August 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

It was business as usual for the USD as it reversed its minor decline from the prior Asian trading session in trade yesterday. The raft of data out of the U.S. helped spur the next leg to the USD rally, this time it was better than expected August Consumer Confidence (new post GFC highs), Richmond Fed (12 vs. 8.0 exp.), and Durable Goods Orders which helped bolster the USD sentiment. The Cable was unable to breach key resistance around 1.6600 and fell away to 1.6536 lows, it was the same story for the Euro with resistance around 1.3215/20 capping before sliding to new 2014 lows of 1.3152. The Usd/jpy was more subdued with the highs of 104.17 lower than those set earlier in the week. The Aussie again topped around the .9330 level (.9313 last).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: MORE POSITIVE U.S. DATA DRIVES THE USD HIGHER

Pivot: 1.31825, R1 1.32002, R2 1.32327, R3 1.32829, S1 1.31500, S2 1.31323, S3 1.30821

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3150/55, 1.3135/40, Medium 1.3100/05.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3175/80, Medium 1.3215/25, 1.3235/45.

View: We strongly favour shorts with rallies being capped towards 1.3175/80, would add in the 1.3195/1.3210 zone, stops above 1.3225.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy (the ADX is high, the Stochs/RSI are o/sold), the 4H's are also trading poorly, the 1H's are lifting.

GBP/USD Intraday: STRONG RESISTANCE AT 1.6600 CAPS THE CABLE

Pivot: 1.65585, R1 1.65771, R2 1.66139, R3 1.66692, S1 1.65217, S2 1.65032, S3 1.64478.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6530/35, 1.6515/20, 1.6480/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6560/70, Major 1.6595/05, Minor 1.6655/60.

View: Shorts favoured with stops above 1.6610. Small shorts ahead of 1.6560/70 adding at 90/95.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very heavy (the ADX is high, the Stochs/RSI are o/sold), the 4H's are also weak, the 1H's are improving.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY MISSES THE NEXT USD LEG HIGHER FOR THE TIME BEING

Pivot: 103.995, R1 104.241, R2 104.419, R3 104.843, S1 103.817, S2 103.571, S3 103.147.

Support Levels: Minor 103.70/75, 103.40/50, 103.05/15.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 104.15/20, Minor/Medium 104.30/35, Very Minor 104.65/75, Minor/Medium 104.85/95.

View: The Usd/jpy is consolidating between 103.70 and 104.30. A break of 104.35 should see the stong up-trend re-ignite. We favour longs on dips ~103.75, stops under 103.40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still strong (the ADX is very high, the Stochs/RSI are o/bght), the 4H's are mixed (the ADX is declining), the 1H's are sliding also.

AUD/USD Intraday: OFFERS AROUND .9330 CAP THE AUSSIE

Pivot: .93037, R1 .93349, R2 .93623, R3 .94209, S1 .92763, S2 .92451, S3 .91865.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9295/00, .9285, Minor/Medium .9270/75.

Resistance Levels: Medium/Major .9330/45 zone, Minor .9355/60.

View: There is little to suggest much change in the Aussie today which continues to outperform the Cable and Euro in the face of USD strength. Mild short bias. .9330/35 top with dips limited to .9285, .9270 max.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to be mixed with a declining ADX, the 4H's are moderately soft (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are soft.

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[MahiFX]

Speculation over ECB takes centre stage, EUR WEAK

The Daily Score - A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Market Summary
Speculation is growing in the forex markets that the ECB is nearing unleashing a monetary stimulus plan to stave off deflation in the Eurozone. Weak economic activity among some of the Eurozone's major economies and the ongoing crisis in the Ukraine are fuelling concerns among the ECB's policy makers.

EUR/USD steadied a little in quiet trade following a US public holiday. There will be an intense focus on the ECB press conference this Thursday.

For GBP/USD there has been some reprieve following a summer of heavy losses. However, Sterling's recovery over the last week stalled on data showing that manufacturing activity was expanding at its slowest pace in 14 months.

The safe haven status of JPY was somewhat eroded following gains by Japanese shares and the weakening EUR where USD/JPY hit a seven-month high.

Key data due later today are US Final manufacturing PMI and the US ISM manufacturing PMI.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EUR REMAINS WEAK ON ECB STANCE

Pivot: R1: 1.3184, R2: 1.3157, R3: 1.3184, Pivot: 1.3130, S1: 1.3116, S2: 1.3104, S3: 1.3077

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3117, 1.3075/80 Major: 1.3100/05

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.3130, 1.3142 Major: 1.3160

View: On the dailies EUR/USD stabilised slightly in very quiet trade, however the main trend is very much down with the hourlies flat lining. With the ECB expected to announce stimulus measures shortly the EUR is expected to remain under pressure.

Technical Comment: Short-term minor resistance can be found around 1.3130 with more determined levels placed around 1.3160. Strong support is likely to be found around the 1.3100/05 level. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at around 40, but on the dailies is looking over-sold at 22. The 1-Hr MACD and STOCKS are showing mixed signals. Following heavy selling EUR/USD is probably due for a breather giving EUR bears another opportunity to establish more short positions.

GBP/USD Intraday: GBP LOOKS VULNERABLE TO MORE SELLING

Pivot: 1.6639, R2: 1.6670, R3: 1.6728, Pivot: 1.6612, S1: 1.6581, S2: 1.6554, S3: 1.6497

Support Levels: 1.6515/20, 1.6480/85 Major: 1.6530

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.6670/80 Major: 1.6605/15

View: On the dailies GBP/USD look like staging a mild recovery, however that appears to be at risk of another leg down following weak manufacturing data and the BoE's dovish stance. The trend was down on the hourlies in Asian and early European trade.

Technical Comment: GBP/USD looks vulnerable to further selling, particularly if 1.6540 is breached making 1.6480/85 the next target. Strong resistance is placed around 1.6605/15. The 1-HR RSI is just heading into oversold territory at 30. The 1-HR MACD earlier generated a strong sell signal and 1-HR STOCKS made a series of weak sell signals.

USD/JPY Intraday: LOOKS SET FOR SHORT CONSOLIDATION PLAY

Pivot: 104.431, R2: 104.514, R3: 104.760, Pivot: 104.267, S1: 104.185, S2: 104.021, S3: 103.774

Support Levels: Minor: 103.95 Major: 103.40/50

Resistance Levels: Minor: 105.19 Major: 105.30

View: On the dailies JPY continues to give ground to USD with the trend reflected on the hourlies. Despite global geopolitical tensions JPY does not appear to be playing up to its safe haven status, at least not for the moment.

Technical Comment: Strong support can be found at 103.95. Resistance is placed at 105.19 and 105.30. The 1-HR RSI is over bought at 88. The 1-HR MACD earlier made a sell signal and 1-HR STOCKS looks very over-stretched. Though the outlook is bearish for USD/JPY on the technicals but with the indicators looking over-stretched a period of consolidation could happen within the next day or two.

AUD/USD Intraday: SHORT-TERM DOWNSIDE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED

Pivot: R1: 0.9348, R2: 0.9365, R3: 0.9394, Pivot: 0.9336, S1: 0.9319, S2: 0.9307, S3: 0.9278

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9285, 0.9270/75 Major: 0.9260, 0.9221

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9340/45, 0.9360/65 Major: 0.9375/80

View: On the dailies AUD/USD is looking stuck in a wide consolidation pattern with the hourlies threatening a breach on the downside with the RBA keeping rates unchanged.

Technical Comment: Resistance can be found at 0.9340/45. Support is placed at 0.9285 and 0.9260. The 1-HR RSI is over-sold at 16. The 1-HR MACD has a sell signal and 1-HR STOCKS looks over -stretched. Given the indicators are looking over-stretched AUD/USD is likely to hold support down to 0.9260.

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[MahiFX]

USD rampant, sharp losses for GBP

The Daily Score - A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Market Summary
USD strength, on positive economic data, helped power it to its highest levels since July 2013 against a basket of currencies and stands in contrast to the woes besetting GBP and JPY. Forex markets have been unnerved by the increasing likelihood that Scotland could vote to leave the UK.

The JPY sell-off is down to possible changes in the investment policies of the massive Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which may include more foreign securities in its portfolio.

AUD lost traction against USD and fell back despite positive economic data. This was due to a very strong USD with traders betting US interest rate rises could come sooner than the Fed is signalling.

The EUR is basically treading water ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, where there could be an announcement over monetary stimulus to revive the flagging Eurozone economy and to stave off potential deflation. Key data due today includes Eurozone retail sales, US factory orders and the Beige book.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: WAITING FOR THE ECB

Pivot: R1: 1.3142, R2: 1.3153, R3: 1.3179, Pivot: 1.3126, S1: 1.3116, S2: 1.3099

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3117, 1.3075/80 Major: 1.3100/05

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.3130, 1.3142 Major: 1.3160

View: On the dailies EUR/USD is steadying ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting with the market divided over whether monetary stimulus measures will be announced. On the hourlies the trend is firming.

Technical Comment: During the Asian and the early morning European session there has been a tussle around resistance at 1.3130 and if it is cleared 1.3142 and 1.3160 will be in the cross-hairs. Support can be found around 1.3117 and crucially around 1.3100/05. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at around 52. The 1-Hr MACD has issued a weak sell signal and STOCKS appear on the verge of issuing a weak sell signal to. With the market treading water at the moment the indicators are giving few useful clues on direction.

GBP/USD Intraday: INDEPENDENCE VOTE CASTS SHADOW OVER GBP

Pivot: R1: 1.6567, R2: 1.6664, R3: 1.6811, Pivot: 1.6517, R1: 1.6420, R2: 1.6370, R3: 1.6223

Support Levels: Minor: 1.3117, 1.3075/80 Major: 1.3100/05

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.3130, 1.3142 Major: 1.3160

View: On the dailies GBP/USD look another drubbing on evidence that the campaign for Scottish independence is gaining momentum. The vote is held on Sept 18, which leaves GBP vulnerable to public opinion until then. On the hourlies, GBP rebounded off support at 1.6445.

Technical Comment: With the focus on the Scottish referendum technicals are likely to take a back seat. However, there is evidence of support around 1.6445 and again around 1.6400/10. Resistance can be found around 1.6528.The 1-HR RSI is just coming back into neutral from oversold territory. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS have issued strong buy signals suggesting GBP could be a due for a recovery in the absence of any market moving news.

USD/JPY Intraday: PENSION FUND DECISION WEIGHS ON JPY

Pivot: R1: 105.438, R2: 105.784, R3: 106.701 Pivot: 104.866, S1: 104.521, S2: 103.949, S3: 103.031

Support Levels: Minor: 104.95, 104.70

Resistance Levels: Minor:105.08, 105.30 Major: 105.40/45

View: A possible shift in the asset allocation policies of the Japanese government's pension fund towards investing in foreign securities saw USD/JPY rack up further gains on the dailies. On the hourlies the pair pulled back and show signs of stabilising.

Technical Comment: Support kicked in around 104.95 and can be seen again at 104.70. Resistance is placed at 105.40/45, 105.08 and 105.30. The 1-HR RSI is neutral after exiting over-bought territory. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS have issued strong sell signals. Despite the pair consolidating, the indicators are signalling further buying of USD/JPY. Thursday sees the BoJ press conference and statement, which could be a market mover.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUD GIVES WAY TO STRONG USD

Pivot: R1: 0.9318, R2: 0.93625, R3: 0.9431 Pivot: 0.9293 S1: 0.9249, S2: 0.9224, S3: 0.9155

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9285, 0.9270/75 Major: 0.9260, 0.9221

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9340/45, 0.9360/65 Major: 0.9375/80

View: On the dailies AUD/USD remains in a consolidation pattern despite good economic news overnight with gains capped by the stronger US currency. On the hourlies the trend moved up in the late Asian and early European session.

Technical Comment: The pair bounced off support around 0.9270/75, but could find the going hard at levels of around 0.9340/45 and above.The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 61. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS have buy signals suggesting a period of consolidation or even a small upward move.

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[MahiFX]

GBP on the Ropes on Scotland Polls

The Daily Score for September 8th 2014

Market Summary
The big story over the weekend is that the campaign for an independent Scotland is now in the lead in the polls opening the very real prospect of the country leaving the UK. During the Asian trading session GBP took another pounding as a result and is likely to carry on exhibiting weakness unless the pro-union campaign can reassert its lead.

However, the big theme remains USD. It took a small set back on Friday on the weaker than expected Non Farm Payrolls number (it was 142,000 versus expected 225,000), reflecting just how bullish sentiment is towards the greenback. Much of the ground lost against JPY was regained while the EUR hardly budged.

Traders are now looking at USD decoupling from the other major currencies with the US Federal Reserve likely to cease its quantitative easing programme next month, while the BoJ is still continuing and the ECB has yet to get started.

There is no key data due today with the next big event being the speech by BoE governor Mark Carney and UK manufacturing numbers on Tuesday at 9:30AM UK time.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: A PAUSE BEFORE SELLING RESUMES?

Pivot: R1: 1.2985, R2: 1.3021, R3: 1.3092, Pivot: 1.2950, S1: 1.2914, S2: 1.2879, S3: 1.2808

Support Levels: Minor: 1.2925, 1.2872 Major: 1.2898, 1.2780

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.2951-6 Major: 1.2974, 1.3117

View: Even a surprise weak NFP number couldn't shift the trend on EUR/USD such is the negative sentiment towards the single currency at the moment leaving the dailies on a downward slope. The hourlies are moving sideways, but look vulnerable to more selling.

Technical Comment: The pair are currently resting above support at around 1.2925 with 1.2872 potentially being another target if that number is breached. Resistance can be found at 1.2974. The 1-HR RSI is in neutral at 35. The 1-Hr MACD has a sell signal and STOCKS has a buy signal. In the absence of market moving news the pair are likely to trade sideways over Monday following last week's dramatic action.

GBP/USD Intraday: ANOTHER BLOW TO GBP ON INDEPENDENCE POLL

Pivot: R1: 1.6357, R2: 1.6390, R3: 1.6475, Pivot: 1.6306, S1: 1.6273, S2: 1.6221, S3: 1.6137

Support Levels: Minor: 1.6167, 1.6154 Major: 1.6095. 1.5990

Resistance Levels: Major: 1.6228-1.6304

View: On the dailies GBP/USD is falling off a cliff with the Scottish independence campaign gaining strong momentum with the pair gaping at the Monday morning Asian session. On the hourlies the downward trend could be about to resume after failing to close the gap. Markets will be watching whether Mark Carney of the BoE will give any supportive comments for GBP when he speaks Tuesday morning.

Technical Comment: A large gap at 1.6228-1.6304 is now evident on GBP/USD, which could act as resistance for the time being. In terms of support, levels around 1.6167 and 1.6154 can be seen. However, with sentiment being heavily news driven, support levels are likely to give away easily. The 1-HR RSI is back into oversold territory at 27. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS have sell signals.

USD/JPY Intraday: JPY STEADY WITH ACTION ELSEWHERE

Pivot: R1: 105.674, R2: 106.252, R3: 107.379, Pivot: 105.125, S1: 104.547, S2: 103.998, S3: 102.871

Support Levels: Minor: 104.74, 104.41 Major: 103.61

Resistance Levels: Minor: 105.28 Major: 105.50/60

View: With much of the action on the European currencies USD/JPY is holding to slowly working its way higher. On the hourlies the trend is sideways.

Technical Comment: Support can be seen around 104.74 with resistance at 105.28. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 50 The 1-HR MACD has a buy signal 1-HR STOCKS has a sell signal.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUD TREADING WATER

Pivot: R1: 0.9408, R2: 0.9439, R3: 0.9509, Pivot: 0.9370, S1: 0.9338, S2: 0.9300, S3: 0.9231

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9332 Major: 0.9272

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9392, 0.9406

View: On the dailies AUD/USD is gently working its way higher, despite mixed trade data out of China, which showed exports rising 9.4% in August while imports fell 2.4%. On the hourlies the trend may be turning downwards after filling a gap around 0.9375.

Technical Comment: Support can be seen at 0.9332 with resistance at 0.9392. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 48. The 1-HR MACD has a sell signal and 1-HR STOCKS has a buy signal.

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[MahiFX]

USD rally pauses for breath and GBP has slight bounce back

The Daily Score for 11 September 2014

Market Summary
The USD finally paused for breath against the major currencies though the rally is likely to resume shortly given the positive momentum that has developed around growing US rate hike expectations.

GBP finally managed a bounce with the latest opinion poll showing 53% of people in Scotland would vote to stay in the UK versus 47% who would leave (once 'don't knows' are excluded). Until very recently, the independence campaign was in the lead. However, the vote is clearly very close making GBP very event driven.

After ceding much ground to USD, JPY also finally paused for a breather. However, BoJ governor

Haruhiko Kuroda reportedly told Japan's PM Shinzo Abe that he is prepared to do whatever it takes to reach the central bank's 2% target.

A surprisingly strong employment number in Australia showing 121,000 jobs had been created in August versus expectations of 15,000 (unemployment rate falls to 6.1% from 6.4%) briefly gave AUD a lift. Key events today include US weekly unemployment claims and ECB president Mario Draghi speaks. During tomorrow's Asian session BoJ governor Kuroda speaks.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: HOLDING STEADY

Pivot: R1: 1.2958, R2: 1.3000, R3: 1.3079, Pivot: 1.2920, S1: 1.2878, S2: 1.2841, S3: 1.2761

Support Levels: Minor: 1.2899, 1.2869/73

Resistance Levels: Minor: 1.2951/6, 1.2973

View: On the dailies EUR remains steady as are the hourlies during the Asian and early morning European session.

Technical Comment: EUR/USD are managing so far to remain above 1.2900 with support seen at 1.2899 and again at 1.2869/73. Resistance can be seen at 1.2951/6. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 46. The 1-HR MACD and STOCKS are showing mixed signals.

GBP/USD Intraday: RECOVERS ON LATEST POLL

Pivot: R1: 1.6275, R2: 1.6341, R3: 1.6520, Pivot: 1.61634, S1: 1.6097, S2: 1.5984, S3: 1.5806

Support Levels: : Minor: 1.6195, 1.6164 Major: 1.6068/70

Resistance Levels: Major: 1.6230-1.6286

View: On the dailies and hourlies GBP experienced some relief showing slightly more Scots want to stay part of the UK rather than leave it. However, GBP remains vulnerable to news of poll swings.

Technical Comment: The gap at around 1.6230-1.6286 has been acting as a resistance level since yesterday. However, there could be an attempt to fill it (providing news flow is not negative), but the gap is very large. Once filled GBP may slip back as the independence vote continues to cast uncertainty. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 62. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS are showing mixed signals.

USD/JPY Intraday: JPY RETAKES SOME LOST GROUND

Pivot: R1: 107.142, R2: 107.430, R3: 108.269, Pivot: 106.591, S1: 106.303, S2: 105.752, S3: 104.913

Support Levels: : Minor: 106.78, 106.43, 106.31, 106.25, 106.02 Major: 105.88

Resistance Levels: Minor: 107.15, 107.36.

View: On the dailies a spinning top has formed suggested a possible trend reversal with the hourlies pointing down. However, any trend reversal is likely to be relatively short-lived given the divergent momentum behind the two currencies.

Technical Comment: The pair hit a high of 107.36 before pulling back to a former resistance level of 106.85. Further support can be seen at 106.78 and 106.43. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 63. The 1-HR MACD and 1-HR STOCKS are issuing mixed signals.

AUD/USD Intraday: JOBS NUMBERS FAIL TO PROVIDE MOMENTUM

Pivot: R1: 0.9208, R2: 0.9265, R3: 0.9370, Pivot: 0.9160, S1: 0.9103, S2: 0.9055, S3: 0.8950

Support Levels: Minor: 0.9149, 0.9138, 0.9128 Major: 0.9089

Resistance Levels: Minor: 0.9198 Major: 0.9212/15

View: On the dailies AUD/USD spiked up on a surprisingly strong Australian jobs number, but it was not enough to take the pair back into their old range or even to sustain much momentum. On the hourlies the trend is back down.

Technical Comment: The pair were unable to clear 0.9198 after the jobs number and have subsequently retreated and could test support at 0.9149. The 1-HR RSI is neutral at 46. The 1-HR MACD has a buy signal 1-HR STOCKS has a sell signal.

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[MahiFX]

Long usd profit taking emerges as the fomc looms

The Daily Score: A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
16 September 2014

Market Summary
Moderate profit taking in long USD positions ahead of Wednesdays looming FOMC meeting was the theme of trading over the last 24 hours. The Euro rallied to highs of 1.2960 from levels ahead of 1.2900 on firm July trade numbers whilst the Cable drifted up to 1.6250. The Aussie lifted from .8984 lows to highs of .9055 as the RBA minutes released in Asia today played to a similar tune, although the speech noted an expectation of a modest pick-up in non-mining business investment over coming quarters, concerns were also raised over the housing price boom. The Usd/jpy eased to lows of 106.92 but remains firm at 107.20 currently with the 107.40 multi-years highs still close at hand. Data released today includes the European ZEW economic sentiment surveys and August U.K. CPI/PPI data.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ZEW CONFIDENCE IN PLAY TODAY

Pivot: 1.29408, R1 1.29729, R2 1.30059, R3 1.30710, S1 1.29078, S2 1.28757, S3 1.28106 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2925/30, Minor/Medium 1.2895/1.2905, Very Minor 1.2880/85.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2960/65, Minor/Medium 1.2980/90, Minor 1.3000/05, Very Minor 1.3030/35.

View: We would be surprised to see fresh USD longs initiated ahead of the FOMC. The Euro downside momentum is declining for now so we expect 1.2900/1.2980-90 to contain pre FOMC.

Technical Comment: The dailies are improving from weak levels (particularly the Stochs, the RSI is close to issuing a buy alert, the Macd line has crossed the signal line), the 4H's are also lifting, the 1H's are easing.

GBP/USD Intraday: AUGUST CPI FEATURED TODAY

Pivot: 1.62443, R1 1.62679, R2 1.63026, R3 1.63609, S1 1.62096, S2 1.61860, S3 1.61277.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6210/15, Extremely Minor 1.6200/05, Very Minor 1.6180/85.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6250/55, Very Minor 1.6265/70, Medium/Major 1.6280/85 (Gap+ Hori Res.), Very Minor 1.6300/05.

View: The CPI will dicate, like the Euro we will look for rangy conditions pre the FOMC. Gap res. at 1.6280/90 holds the key to upside pushs for now. On the downside we expect buying interest around 1.6180/85. Shorts favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are almost a blue print of the Euro (firming), the 4H's are ticking higher (the MACD is flat), the 1H's are easing.

USD/JPY Intraday: 107.40 6-YR HIGHS STILL CLOSE AT HAND

Pivot: 107.188, R1 107.366, R2 107.546, R3 107.904, S1 107.008, S2 106.830, S3 106.472.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 107.00/05, Minor 106.85/90, 106.60/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 107.20/25, Medium 107.35/45, Very Minor 107.75/80.

View: The Usd/jpy looks the most robust USD pair of the majors covered although many of the daily tech's look O/bght. Longs are favoured, tight stops would be under 106.85, Caution required.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong (the ADX is very high, the RSI/Stochs are O/bght), the 4H's heavy, the 1H's are firming.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE LIFTS FROM LOWS UNDER 90C.

Pivot: .90207, R1 .90571, R2 .90861, R3 .91514, S1 .89917, S2 .89554, S3 .88900

Support Levels: Minor .9010/15, Very Minor .8980/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9055/60, Extremely Minor .9065/70, Very Minor .9085/90.

View: The Aussie encountered good res at .9055 today and looks weak again. Mild short bias here ahead of .9060, some bids should be expected at .9010 though, will leave today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy (the ADX is high), the 4H's are firming from weak levels (the Stochs aside), the 1H's are easing.

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[MahiFX]

Fomc talk to dictate trade today, euro 1.2955 last

The Daily Score for 17 September 2014

Market Summary

he reduction in long Usd positions ahead of todays FOMC meeting continued during trade yesterday. Noted Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath contributed to the positioning as he suggested the Fed will retain the key line of rates being on hold “for considerable time” in their statement. Firming U.S. equities (Dow +0.59%, S&P 500 +0.75%) were attributed to a report that the PBOC is providing $US81 B in liquidity to China’s five largest banks. The Euro rallied to highs of 1.2995 from lows just shy of 1.2920 whilst the Cable firmed from the 1.6160 lows set over the U.K. CPI data (the release was broadly in line with exp.) to highs of ~ 1.6309. The Aussie surged to .9113 highs from lows of .8989 set earlier in the day. Additional data releases to be released today include the BOE minutes, the U.K. employment report and Eurozone/U.S. CPI data.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO UP AS USD LONGS REDUCE, FOMC TODAY

Pivot: 1.29593, R1 1.29963, R2 1.30325, R3 1.31058, S1 1.29231, S2 1.28860, S3 1.28128 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2920/25, Minor/Medium 1.2895/1.2905, Very Minor 1.2880/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.2995/05, Very Minor 1.3030/35, 1.3060/70, Very Minor 1.3080/85.

View: We prefer to let the FOMC clear esp. given the nature of the current market. Prefer shorts overall, spec sell at 1.3090. Would expect buying interest in the 1.2880/1.2900 zone.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to improve marginally from weak levels (the Stochs aside), the 4H's are mixed to weak (the DMI aside, the MACD is flat), the 1H's are soft.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE TRADES ABOVE 1.6300 FROM 1.6160 LOWS AS USD LONGS PAIR POSITIONS AHEAD OF THE FOMC

Pivot: 1.62500, R1 1.63373, R2 1.63982, R3 1.65463, S1 1.61891, S2 1.61019, S3 1.59537.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6210/20, Minor/Medium 1.6150/60, Very Minor 1.6125/30.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6300/10, 1.6340/45, 1.6380/85.

View: We will leave over FOMC, looming Scottish vote only adds to the Cable risk. Could see a wild ride over the next 24 hrs, 1.6150/1.6380-1.6400, BOE and particulary FOMC to dictate.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming from weak levels (-DI>+DI though) and the Stochs are high, the 4H's are sidetracking, the 1H's are lifting

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY CONTINUES TO HOLD GROUND ABOVE 107.00

Pivot: 107.091, R1 107.370, R2 107.611, R3 108.131, S1 106.850, S2 106.571, S3 106.051.

Support Levels: Minor 106.60/65, Very Minor 106.45/50, Medium 106.00/05.

Resistance Levels: Medium 107.35/45, Very Minor 107.75/80, 108.00/05.

View: Like the other majors we prefer to let the FOMC clear before entering again. The techs are bullish although 107.35/45 needs cleared and sustained.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong (although have eased from their highs, the Stochs/RSI remain o/bght), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are mixed to soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: WILD RIDE FOR THE AUSSIE (.8989-.9113) AHEAD OF THE FOMC

Pivot: .90653, R1 .91415, R2 .91883, R3 .93113, S1 .90185, S2 .89423, S3 .88193.

Support Levels: Minor .9050/60, Minor/Medium .8980/85.

Resistance Levels: Medium .9110/15, Minor .9140/45, .9185/90.

View: We will leave until the data risk clears. Key support is around .8980, a bearish USD FOMC should see .9110/15 again and perhaps .9140 on the day.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly sidetracking on heavy levels, the 4H's are mixed and drifting, the 1H's are weak.

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[MahiFX]

The Day after the #indyref

Apologies for the late posting today - we've been busy in the wake of the Scottish Independence Vote.

Today's Daily Score for the 19th September

Market Summary
The Scottish independence vote has taken centre stage today with the Scots voting against independence (~ late split 55/45). The Cable had surged during the voting day as investors bet that the “no” vote would succeed, helped by a late YouGov poll of people conducted after they’d voted which predicted the “no” campaign had garnered 54% of the vote. The Cable has traded to highs of 1.6525 so far from levels around 1.6270 at the time of our last report yesterday. The USD gave back some of its gains against the Euro and Aussie after its recent strong run after mixed U.S. data releases. The Aussie has rallied from lows of .8927 to .8997 (.8960 last) whilst the Euro picked up from early lows of ~ 1.2856 to 1.2930 highs, this despite the first TLTRO dissappointing at just EUR 82.6B of allotments against the EUR 150B expectations. The USD has continued to trade firmly against the JPY as the market continues to absorb the diverging monetary policies between the Fed and the BOJ (last 109.15, highs 109.45).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: USD CORRECTION HELPS THE EURO LIFT (1.2930 HIGHS)

Pivot: 1.28961, R1 1.29577, R2 1.29921, R3 1.30881, S1 1.28617, S2 1.28001, S3 1.27041 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.2895/1.2900, Extremely Minor 1.2880/85, Minor 1.2850/55, 1.2835/40.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2930/35, Very Minor 1.2960/65, Minor/Medium 1.2980/90, Minor 1.2995/00

View: Shorts are favoured overall, but consolidation could ensue today within 1.2880/1.2930-35 as the market takes stock. Will leave.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain weak although aren't deteriorating further (the ADX is sliding), the 4H's are mainly firming , the 1H's are easing a touch.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE RALLIES AS THE SCOTS SAY NO TO INDEPENDENCE (1.6525 HIGHS).

Pivot: 1.63502, R1 1.64536, R2 1.65122, R3 1.66742, S1 1.62916, S2 1.61881, S3 1.60261,

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6420/25, Very Minor 1.6355/60, 1.6335/40, 1.6300/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6525/35, Minor 1.6555/65, Medium 1.6600/15, Minor/Medium 1.6645/55.

View: After a massive session we will let the Cable settle but expect todays highs to remain in place. We see dips being limited to the 1.6350/60 area for now.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (the Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is declining), the 4H's are firm (the Stochs/RSI are o/bght), the 1H's are soft.

USD/JPY Intraday: DIVERGENCE IN FED/BOJ MONETARY POLICY SEES THE USD/JPY TRADE TO 109.45

Pivot: 108.656, R1 109.001, R2 109.307, R3 109.959, S1 108.349, S2 108.004, S3 107.352.

Support Levels: Very Minor 108.95/00, 108.50, 108.30/35, 107.75/80.

Resistance Levels: Minor 109.45/50, Medium 109.95/110.10 zone.

View: The bulls are totally in control, longs should target entries near 109.00, tight stops would be under 108.50. We will let the froth die down.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very strong (the ADX is high, the Stochs/RSI are o/bght), the 4H's are firming (the ADX is high), the 1H's are firm but easing.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FAILS TO HOLD ONTO GAINS ON A WEAKER USD (.8997 HIGHS)

Pivot: .89715, R1 .90155, R2 .90405, R3 .91094, S1 .89466, S2 .89026, S3 .88336.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8935/40, Minor/Medium .8920/25, Medium/Major .8890/.8905 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8995/00, Very Minor .9010/15, .9055, .9065/70.

View: The techs are heavy but we favour choppy trading rather than a directional move today. We see .8920/25 to .9000/05. Shorts favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still weak with a high ADX, the 4H's are also soft, the 1H's are edging higher.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score 22 September

Market Summary

Normal service resumed on Friday as the USD rallied once again, rising ~0.3% on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. The Cable gave back most of its gains after the market initially took it to ~1.6525 in Fridays’ Asian trade on the relief that the Scottish independence vote had failed. The Gbp/usd sits at 1.6355 currently (post high lows ~ 1.6285). The Euro fell to 1.2825 whilst the Usd/jpy had a more subdued session as both the Japanese Finance Minister and the BOJ Governor were on the news wires highlighting the undesirability of the recent rapid currency moves (Usd/jpy 108.75 last). The Aussie fell from .8995 to .8920 lows in reaction to lower iron ore prices which fell to new cycle lows of $81.70 (-1.6%), higher volatility is also likely eroding appetite for high yielders like the Aud/usd.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: USD STRENGTH SEES THE EURO AGAIN MOVE LOWER (~1.2825 LOWS).

Pivot: 1.28621, R1 1.28964, R2 1.29631, R3 1.30640, S1 1.27954, S2 1.27611, S3 1.26602 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.2820/25, Medium 1.2795/00, Medium/Major 1.2745/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.2880/85, Minor 1.2895/05, Medium 1.2930/35.

View: We favour shorts targeting 1.2875/85. Stops above 1.2935 so would add at 1.2900/10. Target is 1.2750.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to trade poorly although are sidetracking currently, the 4H's are lifting, the 1H's are firm.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE GIVES BACK ALL ITS GAINS AS THE STRONG USD STATUS QUO RESUMES (~1.6285 LOWS)

Pivot: 1.63657, R1 1.64471, R2 1.66065, R3 1.68472, S1 1.62064, S2 1.61250, S3 1.58842

Support Levels: Medium/Major 1.6270/85 zone, Minor 1.6245/50, 1.6210/20.

Resistance Levels: Very MInor 1.6360/65, 1.6405/10, 1.6420/25, Extremely Minor 1.6435/40, Very Minor 1.6495/00.

View: The Cable remains tough, we favour shorts though. Would target 1.6395/1.6410 to get short, tight stop could be above 1.6440. Best res. is Fridays highs (1.6525/35).

Technical Comment: The dailies are ticking higher (the Stochs are easing though), the 4H's are also edging up, the 1H's are firm.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY CLIMB PAUSES (108.75 LAST)

Pivot: 109.032, R1 109.470, R2 109.897, R3 110.761, S1 108.605, S2 108.167, S3 107.303.

Support Levels: Very Minor 108.60, Minor 108.50/55, Very Minor 108.30/35, 107.75/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 109.10/20, Minor/Medium 109.45/50, Medium 109.95/110.10 zone.

View: We are wary of a correction here but 108.45/60 needs to break. A break of this area exposes 107.40/50 which would be healthy given the recent rally. Otherwise we see consolidation within 108.45/55-109.15/20.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong but beginning to taper off (the ADX is high), the 4H's are firm but easing lower, the 1H's are soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FINDS RES. AHEAD OF 90C ON FRIDAY, .8920 LOWS.

Pivot: .89488, R1 .89765, R2 .90290, R3 .91093, S1 .88963, S2 .88685, S3 .87883.

Support Levels: Medium .8920/25, Medium/Major .8890/.8905 zone, Very Minor .8865/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .8945/50, Minor .8980/80, Medium .8995/00, Very Minor .9010/15, .9055, .9065/70.

View: We like to sell Aussie rallies in this environment but the best sell area is .8980/.8900. A break of .8920 should open more downside.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy but tracking sideways (the ADX is high), the 4H's are soft but tracking sideways, the 1H's are firming.

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[MahiFX]

The kiwi dives under 80c on rbnz comments

The Daily Score for 25 September.
Market Summary

Market Summary
The Euro fared poorly in trading yesterday as weakness in the German IFO drove sentiment. The Business climate index fell 1.6pts to 104.7 (105.7 exp.) pointing to German GDP growth of less than 1% according to analyst commentary. The Euro fell from highs around 1.2865 to lows of 1.2763 with historical 2013 support at 1.2740/50 now firmly in sight. Data out of the U.S. contributed to flows as new home sales surged to a six-year high in August rising 18% MoM, the largest monthly increase since 1992. The Cable surrendered its gains from prior trading reversing off 1.6415 highs to 1.6315 lows. The Aud/usd fell from a .8897 peak to trade down to .8818 as the RBA expressed concern in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report over the “unbalanced” housing market and signaled that it was actively engaged in discussions with other regulators to curb pricing pressures. The Nzd/usd also had a torrid session falling under 80c as the RBNZ governor noted that the Kiwi exchange rate remained unjustified and unsustainable. The Usd/jpy shrugged off early selling pressure to be trading at 109.15 currently (highs 109.34,lows 108.50).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: A STRONG USD AND WEAK GERMAN IFO SEES THE EURO DIVE AGAIN

Pivot: 1.28064, R1 1.28386, R2 1.28964, R3 1.29865, S1 1.27485, S2 1.27163, S3 1.26263 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium/Major 1.2745/55, Very Minor 1.2730/35, 1.2700/05.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.2795/05, Medium 1.2815/25, Very Minor 1.2840/45, Minor/Medium 1.2865/80 zone.

View: The USD bulls are in control. We see rallies stalling near 1.2800, 1.2815/25 max. Reasonable support comes in at 1.2745/55 however. A break of this level should open up 1.2660 and 1.2620 in time.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain heavy and have started to weaken further (-DI is rising), the 4H's are heavy with high momentum, the 1H's are heavy.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE REVERSES OFF 1.6415 HIGHS TO TRADE DOWN AT 1.6320.

Pivot: 1.63602, R1 1.63928, R2 1.64460, R3 1.65318, S1 1.63070, S2 1.62744, S3 1.61886.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6300/05, Medium 1.6270/85 zone, Minor 1.6245/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6365/75, Medium 1.6415/25.

View: We see any rally being capped at 1.6370 in this environment. Buyers should be seen in the 1.6270/80 area.

Technical Comment: The dailies are deteriorating (esp. the Stochs), the 4H's are also weak (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mixed.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY TRADES HIGHER IN ASIAN TRADE (109.34 HIGHS)

Pivot: 108.888, R1 109.312, R2 109.579, R3 110.270, S1 108.621, S2 108.197, S3 107.505.

Support Levels: Minor 108.45/55, Very Minor 108.20/30.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 109.35, Minor/Medium 109.45/50, Medium 109.95/110.10 zone

View: Our Usd/jpy view hasn't panned out so far. Any remaining shorts should be cut through 109.50 which will open the upside again. Until broken a move to 108.50 could ensue.

Technical Comment: The dailies are similar to yesterday (firm although the Stochs are easing), the 4H's are moving higher, the 1H's are falling from firm levels.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SLIDE CONTINUES (.8825 LAST)

Pivot: .88732, R1 .89072, R2 .89311, R3 .89890. S1 .88493, S2 .88153, S3 .87574.

Support Levels: Medium .8815/25, Very Minor .8800/05, Minor .8770/75.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8845/50, .8865/70, .8885/90, Minor/Medium .8895/00, Medium .8915/30 zone.

View: The Aussie looks terrible but has only marginally set fresh lows today making us think this bounce can extend to .8850 and possibly .8870. Stops need to be above .8900 on shorts, through .8815 will open fresh downside.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy (the ADX is high, the Stochs/RSI are o/sold), the 4H's are falling, the 1H's are heavy.

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[MahiFX]

.8660 2014 aud/usd lows firmly in sight, .8750 caps rally

The Daily Score for 30th September

Market Summary
The key majors finally gained some relief from the USD rally during the last 24 hours. The Aussie managed to rally from its lows of .8684 to .8749 and trades at .8725 currently. Australian Private Sector Credit data for August released in Asian trade today largely conformed to expectations. Both the Eur/usd (~1.2715 highs, 1.2688 last) and the Usd/jpy (~109.75 highs, 109.12 lows, 109.35 last) have been range-bound. September German inflation data released yesterday at 0.8% YoY was shown to remain subdued. Today will see the release of EU employment and CPI data; the final reading of the U.K. 2Q GDP will also be released.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: GERMAN INFLATION REMAINS SUBDUED

Pivot: 1.26880, R1 1.27122, R2 1.27393, R3 1.27906, S1 1.26609, S2 1.26366, S3 1.25853 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.2660/65, 1.2620/25, 1.2585/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2710/20, Minor/Medium 1.2760/75 zone.

View: We continue to favour shorts, stops above ~1.2730 after recent large declines, a break of 1.2660 opens further downside.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look poor with an increasing ADX, the 4H's are sidetracking on weak levels, the 1H's look similar.

https://d18azo516oxcnf.cloudfront.net/335/70da68d1-fda7-4c06-9c15-54e29a15fd3d9ed58a07-690e-48f1-ba57-8f930812bae9-EUR3009.png

GBP/USD Intraday: SELLERS AHEAD OF 1.6280 HALT THE CABLE BOUNCE

Pivot: 1.62415, R1 1.62736, R2 1.63068, R3 1.63722, S1 1.62082, S2 1.61761, S3 1.61108.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6200/10, Minor 1.6150/60

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.6275/85, 1.6335/50 zone.

View: The Cable bounce stalled where anticpated yesterday. We see this level again providing resistance (1.6275/85), shorts favoured tight stops above 1.6310 (wide above 1.6350, our pref).

Technical Comment: The dailies remain heavy pointing to more downside (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are also weak, the 1H's are mixed.

https://d18azo516oxcnf.cloudfront.net/335/3477d95a-cd74-4015-8b68-c007aee42ee89db25240-3c3c-4875-8bdb-d0b60dfb3e42-GBP3009.png

USD/JPY Intraday: 110 PROVES ELUSIVE FOR THE TIME BEING, 109.12 LOWS ON PULLBACK

Pivot: 109.457, R1 109.786, R2 110.076, R3 110.694, S1 109.168, S2 108.839, 108.220.

Support Levels: Minor 109.10/20, Minor/Medium 108.45/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 109.75/80, Medium 109.95/110.10.

View: The Usd/jpy appears to be consolidating its gains for now, we favour more trade within 109.10/109.75-80 but favour longs. Tight stops would be under 108.80, best under 108.45.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to trade firmly (the RSI is o/bght, the ADX is very high), the 4H's are firm on balance, the 1H's are soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: FRIENDLESS AUSSIE STUMBLES AT .8750 ON THE BOUNCE

Pivot: .87217, R1 .87596, R2 .88005, R3 .88793, S1 .86808, S2 .86429, S3 .85641.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8680/85, Medium/Major .8655/60, Very Minor .8625/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .8745/50, Minor .8770/75, .8800/05, Medium .8815/30 zone.

View: Our view is unchanged from yesterday, we prefer shorts at .8740/50, adding at .8765, stops above .8805 for .8685 and .8660.

Technical Comment: Nothing has changed since yesterday for the dailies (very heavy), the 4H's are also weak (the ADX is grinding higher), the 1H's

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[MahiFX]

Extremes in bullish usd sentiment sees the usd correct lower, usd/jpy 108.95 last

The Daily Score for 02 October 2014

Market Summary

The USD gave back some gains yesterdays as bullish USD sentiment has recently stretched to 4-year highs. The Usd/jpy suffered particularly after recent strong gains saw it reach highs above 110 during Asian trade yesterday. (109.00 last). The moderating USD sentiment was helped by the U.S. manufacturing ISM release that undershot market expectations falling to 56.6 in September (58.5 exp.) from a 3-½ year high of 59 in August. The Euro shrugged off early weakness to trade up to 1.2640 (lows ~1.2584), similarly the Cable found support again at 1.6160 to trade up to 1.6250 highs, however trades at 1.6195 currently. U.K manufacturing PMI slid to 51.6 in September (52.5 exp.) The January 2014 .8660 lows provided too difficult for the Aussie to breach, which has since rallied to .8794 highs in line with the weaker USD. The ECB meeting will dominate today with expectations that the ECB will maintain its proactive stance to provide further policy accommodation.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ECB TODAYS FOCUS

Pivot: 1.26155, R1 1.26474, R2 1.26717, R3 1.27280, S1 1.25911, S2 1.25592, S3 1.25030 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2580/85, Minor 1.2565/70, Extremely Minor 1.2550/55, 1.2500/15 zone.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2635/40, Minor/Medium 1.2655/65, Medium 1.2705/20 zone.

View: Despite the weak dailies we are happy to leave the Euro today with the ECB meeting and the USD sentiment stretched. A break of 1.2640/45 and 1.2665/70 should see the Euro gain back some lost ground.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still heavy although the Stochs are swinging higher, the 4H's are mainly edging up, the 1H's are firm.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AFTER A WHIPPY 24 HRS.

Pivot: 1.61996, R1 1.62370, R2 1.62886, R3 1.63776, S1 1.61480, S2 1.61106, S3 1.60216.

Support Levels: Medium 1.6150/65 zone, Very Minor 1.6130/35.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6245/50, Medium/Major 1.6275/90 zone, Medium 1.6335/50 zone.

View: The Cable has benefitted least from the lower USD. We are unsure today, longs should cut through 1.6150, shorts though 1.6250.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still soft but are mainly drfiting, the 4H's are soft and also side-tracking, the 1H's are mainly edging up.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY CORRECTS STEEPLY AFTER RECENT LARGE GAINS

Pivot: 109.283, R1 109.695, R2 110.497, R3 111.711, S1 108.481, S2 108.069, S3 106.855

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 108.45/55, Very Minor 108.20/25, Medium 107.35/45.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 109.10/20, 109.40/55 zone, Major 110.00/110.10.

View: The Usd/jpy has gone off the boil but the short trade won't be easy. Bulls will need to stop under 108.45, we will try shorts (ahead of 109.10/20 adding at 109.35, stops above 109.55

Technical Comment: The recent fall has seen the dailies deteriorate with divergence appearing in the RSI and Stochs, the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mixed.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RALLIES SHARPLY OFF OLD 2014 LOWS (.8785 LAST).

Pivot: .87170, R1 .87704, R2 .88028, R3 .88886, S1 .86846, S2 .86312, S3 .85454.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8745/50, Very Minor .8700/05, .8680/85, Major .8655/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor .8795/05, Medium .8815/30 zone, Minor .8845/55.

View: The Aussie will be tough from here, we will let it settle despite the emerging double bottom. Will leave today.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (the Stochs are rallying sharply), the 4H's are firming (+DI has crossed -DI from below), the 1H's are strong.

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[MahiFX]

U.s. Nf payrolls set to dictate fresh usd direction, +215k exp.

Market Summary

The theme of the reduction in extreme long USD positions continued yesterday although the Cable was a notable exception. The Gbp/usd eased to lows near 1.6110 having peaked at 1.6250 again yesterday, this occurred after BoE MPC member Broadbent suggested that the U.K. recovery is not yet strong enough for interest rate increases. The Euro rallied to 1.2700 highs after the ECB meeting as the markets expressed disappointment with the outlined asset-backed securities and covered bond-buying program. The ECB said it will target balance sheet expansion of up to EUR1 trn. The Usd/jpy continued its downward correction to 108.01 lows (108.75 last) whilst the Aussie’s impressive bounce from .8663 continued (highs .8827, .8790 last). The focus for today will be September’s U.S. NF Payrolls report with market median expectations set at +215,000 jobs.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO RALLIES TO 1.2700 HIGHS ON THE ECB AND USD CORRECTION

Pivot: 1.26154, R1 1.26474, R2 1.26717, R3 1.27280, S1 1.25911, S2 1.25591, S3 1.25028 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2640/45, Very Minor 1.2610/15, 1.2580/85.

Resistance Levels: Medium 1.2700/15 zone, 1.2760/75 zone.

View: The Euro trade won't be any easier today with the NFP out, we still like the USD overall but extreme positioning makes the trade difficult. A USD bullish number should see buyers at 1.2580 given that positioning, an extreme bearish USD outcome should see 1.2760/75.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still weak but lifting (esp. the Stochs), the 4H's are beginning to ease again having improved, the 1H's are soft (the MACD least so).

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FAILS TO CATCH THE USD CORRECTION TAIL WIND AFTER BOE MEMBER COMMENTS

Pivot: 1.61996, R1 1.62370, R2 1.62886, R3 1.63776, S1 1.61480, S2 1.61106, S3 1.60216

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6110/15, Medium 1.6050/60.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6160/70, 1.6175/80, Minor/Medium 1.6245/55

View: The Cable is faring poorly but NFP will dicate. We expect 1.6050-1.6250 to contain however.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy and the ADX is on the rise (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are weak, the 1H's are also weak.

USD/JPY Intraday: 108.00 HOLDS THE USD/JPY DOWNWARD CORRECTION SO FAR.

Pivot: 109.283, R1 109.695, R2 110.497, R3 111.711, S1 108.481, S2 108.069, S3 106.855.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 108.45/55, Minor/Medium 108.00/05, Medium 107.35/45.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 108.95/00, Minor 109.10/20, 109.40/55 zone.

View: The Usd/jpy correction extended to 108.00. We see a messy session ahead with a hole under the Usd/jpy to 108.00, we see a quick move there and perhaps 107.50 should the number dissapoint USD bulls, 109.50 if USD +ve.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still softening from prior o/bght lvls (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are rising strongly, the 1H's are strong.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE TRADES UP TO .8827 HIGHS, U.S. NF PAYOLLS IN FOCUS.

Pivot: .87170, R1 .87704, R2 .88028, R3 .88886, S1 .86846, S2 .86312, S3 .85454.

Support Levels: Minor .8760/75 zone, Extremely Minor .8745/50, .8695/.8705.

Resistance Levels: Medium .8820/30, Minor .8845/55, Minor/Medium .8885/00.

View: We prefer to let payrolls clear but are inclined to buy USD's and expect .8830/50 to invite selling on a USD weak number. Shorts would need to stop above .8900.

Technical Comment: The dailies are lifting from weak levels (the Stochs the most so), the 4H's are easing, the 1H's are mixed.

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[MahiFX]

The Daily Score for 06 October

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX

Market Summary
The sharp USD rally was re-ignited on Friday after another bumper U.S. jobs report saw 248,000 new jobs added for September. The U.S. unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.9% continuing its decline from a peak of over 10% set some 5 years ago. An upwards revision to Augusts data and stronger than expected U.S. ISM non-manufacturing and Markit Services PMI data further bolstered the dollar. The Euro fell to 1.2500 lows after already having lost ground earlier in the day as the European Services PMIs underwhelmed. The Aussie set fresh lows for 2014 at .8642 (.8670 last) as did the Cable at lows around 1.5950, whilst the Usd/jpy has topped at 109.90 so far just shy of its recent 110.09 highs. The RBA will be in focus on Tuesday (Sydney time) where the market unanimously expects rates to remain at 2.5% for the 15th consecutive month, the accompanying commentary will be closely watched especially given the recent declines in key commodity prices.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO CRASHES TO 1.2500 ON THE U.S. JOBS REPORT

Pivot: 1.25636, R1 1.26268, R2 1.27382, R3 1.29128, S1 1.24522, S2 1.23890, S3 1.22144 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.2500/05, Minor 1.22480/85, 1.2450/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2565/70, Very Minor 1.2580/85, Minor 1.2600/10.

View: A break of 1.2495/00 should invite fresh selling, we expect rallies to be capped by 1.2560/70. We favour waiting for a bounce towards here to sell with stops above 1.2610. Break sellers of 1.2495 could stop above 1.2530.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy with an elevated ADX (the Stochs remain in the o/sold bounds), the 4H's are also heavy, the 1H's point to futher Euro losses (the Stochs aside).

GBP/USD Intraday: STRONG U.S. JOB NUMBERS SEE THE CABLE FALL TO 1.5950.

Pivot: 1.60293, R1 1.61062, R2 1.62354, R3 1.64415, S1 1.59001, S2 1.58232, S3 1.56171.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.5950/55, 1.5910/15, Minor 1.5895/1.5905, Minor/Medium 1.5850/55.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.5975/80, Very Minor 1.6000/15 zone, Medium 1.6050/60.

View: We favour shorts through 1.5945/50 or around 1.5995/1.6010, wide stops needed above 1.6060 after the recent large declines. Next material target is 1.5850.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy and declining (the ADX and +DI are rising sharply), the 4H's are also very heavy, the 1H's are also weak.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY THREATENS 110 AGAIN AFTER THE U.S. NFP

Pivot: 109.340, R1 110.327, R2 110.891, R3 112.441, S1 108.777, S2 107.790, S3 106.239.

Support Levels: Very Minor 109.40/55 zone, 109.10/20, 109.00/05.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 109.90/95, Medium 110.00/110.10, 110.65/70.

View: The USD is strong, we favour longs at 109.40/55 or being aware of false breaks through 110.20. Next topside target would be 110.65/70.

Technical Comment: The dailies are beginning to advance again, the 4H's are also rising (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are firm (the Stochs aside).

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE SETS NEW LOWS FOR 2014 AFTER THE U.S. NFP (.8642).

Pivot: .87055, R1 .87678, R2 .88678, R3 .90301, S1 .86053, S2 .85432, S3 .83809.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8640/45, Extremely Minor .8630/35, .8610/15, Very Minor .8575/80, Minor/Medium .8550/55.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .8680/85, .8695/05, Very Minor .8745/50.

View: We favour shorts and expect rallies to be capped near .8680, .8700/05 max. Stops above .8750.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain weak (the Stochs least so, the ADX is high), the 4H's are also soft, the 1H's point to more Aussie downside.

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[MahiFX]

Market Summary

Comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials released with the Fed minutes drove a significant downward USD correction in trade today. Fed policy makers expressed concerns over the risks posed to the U.S. economy from slowing global growth and a stronger dollar. The minutes also highlighted the risks that the strong dollar may have on exports and inflation targets. The Euro peaked at ~1.2755, the Cable 1.6181 and the Aussie at .8851 (initially) in Asian trade, whilst the Usd/jpy was knocked off its 108.75 highs to lows near 108.00. Employment data for September released in Australia today saw the loss of 29,700 jobs (vs. +15,500 exp.). This saw the Aud/usd trade back to .8795 retracement lows, the poor print was driven by the loss of 51,300 part-time positions however, and the Aussie has since traded to new highs at .8855.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: FED STRONG USD CONCERNS BOLSTER THE EURO

Pivot: 1.27019, R1 1.27814, R2 1.28282, R3 1.29545, S1 1.26551, S2 1.25756, S3 1.24493 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.2685/00 zone, 1.2640/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2755/65, 1.2820/35 zone.

View: This USD correction likely has more to run. We see dips being limited to 1.2685/1.2700 in this environment, the first topside target is the 1.2815/35 zone. Stops under 1.2650.

Technical Comment: The dailies are slowly firming (the Stochs are at or near o/bght levels), the 4H's are firm, the 1H's are mixed .

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE CATCHES A TAILWIND AFTER THE FED MINUTES

Pivot: 1.61272, R1 1.62224, R2 1.62770, R3 1.64268, S1 1.60726, S2 1.59774, S3 1.58276.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6110/25, Minor 1.6025/40.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6200/05, Minor 1.6245/55.

View: Like the Euro we see dips being limited for now, most likely to 1.6115/35, the first decent topside target is 1.6250. Tight stop could be under 1.6090, best is under 1.6025 though.

Technical Comment: Like the Euro the dailies are edging higher (the Stochs are strong), the 4H's are firm, the 1H's are mixed.

USD/JPY Intraday: WHIPPY TRADE BETWEEN 107.75-108.75 OVER THE LAST 24 HRS.

Pivot: 108.193, R1 108.632, R2 109.181, R3 110.169, S1 107.644, S2 107.205, S3 106.217.

Support Levels: Minor 107.75/80, Medium 107.40/50, Minor 106.80/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor 108.75/80, Minor/Medium 109.15/25.

View: The USD looks heavy and we expect 107.75 to eventually give way. We favour shorts but first stop level is wide at above 108.80 so would prefer to get set nearer 108.50, best stop is above 109.25.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy and continue to fall, the 4H's are also weak (the RSI least so), the 1H's are mixed.

AUD/USD Intraday: USD SELL-OFF SEES THE AUSSIE TRADE ABOVE .8850

Pivot: .88087, R1 .88833, R2 .89259, R3 .90432, S1 .87661, S2 .86914, S3 .85742.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8790/95, .8760/65, Minor .8720/35 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .8855/60, Minor/Medium .8885/.8900 zone, Minor .8925/30.

View: The Aussie looks better in the face of the USD correction , trading won't be easy with large moves. Longs at 15/20 tight stop would be under .8790 for .8885/90 and .8925/30.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to firm led by the Stochs (which are nearing o/bght levels), the 4H's are also firm, the 1H's are mainly strong.

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[MahiFX]

The usd quickly reverses its fed minute losses (aud/usd .8775 from .8899 highs).

The Daily Score for 10 October 2014

Market Summary

Initial downwards momentum in the dollar was quickly reversed during trade yesterday as the market reassessed its initial reaction to the Fed minutes which had contained very little that hadn’t already been conveyed previously by various Fed officials. Risk currencies suffered poorly, the Aud/usd has fallen to .8747 lows in Asia from yesterdays .8899 highs as global equities had a poor session exacerbated by concerns over the health of the global economy (S&P 500, Dow fell ~ 2%). The Euro declined to ~1.2663 lows (highs ~ 1.2791) as weak German trade figures and comments from the IMF head Christine Lagarde (who noted roughly a 35% chance of the Euro-zone returning to recession) dampened sentiment. The Cable trades at 1.6125 currently having climbed to ~ 1.6227 highs yesterday.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: FED MINUTE GAINS QUICKLY REVERSE, ~ 1.2663 LOWS

Pivot: 1.27154, R1 1.27670, R2 1.28429, R3 1.290704, S1 1.26395, S2 1.25879, S3 1.24604 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2660/65, Very Minor 1.2640/50, Very Minor 1.2620/25.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2720/25, 1.2760/65, Minor/Medium 1.2790/00.

View: The markets are scrappy, longs to stop under 1.2650, the first target is yesterdays highs (1.2790)

Technical Comment: The dailies are still mainly trickling higher, the 4H's are also edging up, the 1H's are strong.

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE A NON-EVENT, ~1.6105 LOWS FROM ~1.6627 HIGHS

Pivot: 1.61505, R1 1.61962, R2 1.62731, R3 1.63957, S1 1.60736, S2 1.60279, S3 1.59053.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6100/05, Very Minor 1.6050/55, 1.6040/45, 1.6020/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6225/30, 1.6245/55

View: We will stick with yesterdays trade plan although note with the reversal off 1.6225 the risk of longs has heighened. Longs, tight stop is under 1.6090, under 1.6025 is best.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to move up slowly (the Stochs are strong), the 4H's are mixed (the Stochs are heavy), the 1H's are firming

USD/JPY Intraday: SUPPORT AT 107.40/50 HALTS THE USD/JPY DECLINE

Pivot: 107.897, R1 108.263, R2 108.687, R3 109.477,S1 107.473, S2 107.107, S3 106.317.

Support Levels: Medium/Major 107.40/50, Minor 106.80/85.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 108.15/25, Minor 108.75/80.

View: The Usd/jpy looks poor, we see rallies being capped around 108.15/25, a break of 107.40/50 will open up 106.80, otherwise 107.40/50-108.20.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look poor (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are also weak, the 1H's are also soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE IS HIT HARD AS THE USD FIRMS, EQUITIES FALL (.8899 HIGHS)

Pivot: .88153, R1 .88663, R2 .89496, R3 .90839, S1 .87320, S2 .86810, S3 .85467.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8745/50, Minor .8720/35 zone, Extremely Minor .8700/05.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .8825/35, Medium/Major .8885/.8900 zone, Minor .8925/30.

View: The Aussie is messy and we prefer to leave. Would try longs if we saw .8720/35 stops under .8700 but prefer shorts higher, would entertain at .8825/35.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly soft, the 4H's are weak (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are beginning to improve.

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[MahiFX]

The aud/usd rally continues in asian trade, .8812 highs

Market Summary

The Australian dollar and its Trans-Tasman counterpart the Kiwi have been outperformers in the Asian session. The Aussie rallied on the back of improving iron-ore prices as the market continued to react to yesterdays better than expected trade numbers out of China which have bolstered hopes the Chinese economy may be turning a corner. The Aud/usd trades at .8800 (highs .8812) up from yesterdays .8710 lows. The Eur/usd benefitted from more broad based USD selling firming to 1.2768 highs. Equities continue to suffer with the S&P 500 posting its biggest three-day loss since 2011 (-1.65% on the day). Safe haven buying saw the JPY firm to 106.75 highs against the dollar from (107.58 lows), whilst the Cable has languished trading at 1.6070 currently after the BOE Governor Carney was seen as sounding dovish in a CNBC interview.

Pre-European Open Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: USD SELLING HELPS THE EURO TO HIGHS NEAR 1.2770

Pivot: 1.27113, R1 1.28020, R2 1.28523, R3 1.29932, S1 1.26611, S2 1.25704, S3 1.24294. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2695/00, Very Minor 1.2650/55, 1.2600/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.2760/70, Minor/Medium 1.2790/00.

View: We favour more choppy trading without directional bias over the next 24 hours, 1.2605/1.2790 on the wide, 1.2650/1.2770 more likely.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly ambling on soft levels (the ADX continues to decline), the 4H's are mildly firm but side-tracking also, the 1H's are mixed.

GBP/USD Intraday: CARNEY COMMENTS DEFLATE THE CABLE

Pivot: 1.60872, R1 1.61240, R2 1.61638, R3 1.62404, S1 1.60474, S2 1.6 1.60106, S3 1.59340.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6045/50, Minor 1.6000/10, Medium 1.5950/55.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6125/35, Extremely Minor 1.6160/65.

View: We like the Cable to trade within 1.6010/1.6140 over the next 24 hours without any real bias.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak (the ADX is at moderate levels), the 4H's are also slightly soft, the 1H's are edging up.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY FIRMS TO 106.75 HIGHS ON CONTINUED SAFE HAVEN DEMAND

Pivot: 107.080, R1 107.385, R2 107.918, R3 108.755, S1 106.548, S2 106.243, S3 105.405.

Support Levels: Minor 106.75/85, Very Minor 106.45/60 zone (38.2% retrace. of 100.75-110.09)

Resistance Levels: Minor 107.50/60, Medium 108.15/25.

View: The Usd/jpy decline met our first target having failed near anticipated levels. We will leave today, shorts could target ahead of downtrend res. with s/l above 107.65, longs near lows to stop under 106.40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy again (although the RSI has edged up, the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are ebbing higher, the 1H's are firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FIRMS ABOVE 88C ON CHINA ECONOMY HOPES

Pivot: .87372, R1 .88222, R2 .88722, R3 .90072, S1 .86872, S2 .86022, S3 .84672.

Support Levels: Very Minor .8730/35, .8710/15, Medium .8640/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .8825/35, Extremely Minor .8850/55, Medium/Major .8890/00.

View: We think the Aussie should find some decent selling near .8825/35, buyers may wish to sit back until .8730/35. We will leave today.

Technical Comment: The dailies have improved a touch from their weak levels (the ADX is declining), the 4H's are moderately firm, the 1H's are strong.

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[MahiFX]

The cable falls over 1% to below 1.5900 on tumbling u.k. Inflation numbers

Market Summary

The Cable crashed to fresh lows for 2014 yesterday and trades near its lows currently at 1.5890 currently. This has occurred after the lowest inflation print in 5 years which has served to extend the BoE rate normalisation expectations. The headline CPI number fell from +1.5% YoY to 1.2% YoY. The Euro also had a poor day falling to lows of 1.2625 so far on weak data which included a plummeting German ZEW survey, weak Eurozone Industrial Production data and downwards revisions to the German growth forecasts by the German Economic ministry. The Aussie has also fallen sharply to near .8675 lows on risk-reduction selling driven by poor sentiment which has been exacerbated by fears of rapidly weakening global inflation and Ebola contagion. The Usd/jpy set fresh lows on the retracement from the 2014 highs near 106.67 but trades at 107.10 currently.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: FURTHER WEAK DATA WEIGHS ON THE EURO

Pivot: 1.26889, R1 1.27379, R2 1.28174, R3 1.29459, S1 1.26094, S2 1.25604, S3 1.24319 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.2600/05, 1.2580/85, 1.2570/75.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.2675/80, 1.2700/05, 1.2715/20, Medium 1.2760/70.

View: We favour shorts for 1.2600/05 and 1.2580. We will look for rallies to stumble around 1.2675/80, stops above 1.2720.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to trade poorly, the 4H's are also heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are very heavy with a high ADX.

GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE CRASHES BELOW 1.5900 ON WEAK INFLATION DATA

Pivot: 1.59669, R1 1.60361, R2 1.61682, R3 1.63696, S1 1.58348, S2 1.57655, S3 1.55642

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.5850/55, Extremely MInor 1.5830/35, 1.5800/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.5945/55, Very Minor 1.5995/1.6005.

View: The Cable is in dire straits, we see rallies failing to top 1.5950/60 but this market is messy. Would add ahead of 1.6000, stops above 1.6020.

Technical Comment: The dailies are very heavy and the ADX is turning higher again (the Stochs are nearing o/sold bounds), the 4H's are heavy (both the Stochs and RSI are o/sold), the 1H's are heavy (the Stochs/RSI are edging up).

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EDGES OUT FRESH MARGINAL LOWS BELOW 106.70.

Pivot: 107.012, R1 107.355, R2 107.658, R3 108.304, S1 106.709, S2 106.366, S3 105.720.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 106.45/60 zone (38.2% retrace. of 100.75-110.09), Very Minor 106.00/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor 107.50/60, Medium 108.15/25.

View: The Usd/jpy is soft but appears to be consolidating for now between ~107.50/106.60. Could try either way at the extremities of this range, 25-30 pips stops, shorts preferred.

Technical Comment: The dailies are weak (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are firming (esp. the Stochs), the 1H's are mainly soft.

AUD/USD Intraday: SOURING GLOBAL SENTIMENT DAMPENS THE AUSSIE

Pivot: .87401, R1 .87861, R2 .88583, R3 .89766, S1 .86679, S2 .86218, S3 .85036

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .8670/75, Medium .8640/50, Extremely Minor .8630/35, .8600/10.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .8730/35, .8785/90, Minor .8815/20, .8825/35.

View: The Aussie is very choppy and tough to trade at the moment. We would leave unless we see .8780/.8810 (sell) or .8650/.8675 (buy), 35 pip stops, much prefer shorts overall.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look poor, the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are weak but firming.

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