The Daily Score - 23 Apr 2014
Market Summary - by Simon Coulter of MahiFX
A sharply weaker Australian dollar was the feature of an otherwise quiet days trading in Asia. The sharp fall came on the back of a weaker than expected 2014 Q1 CPI outturn. The annual pace of underlying inflation came in at 2.6% versus expectations for a 2.9% outcome. The underlying QoQ number printed at 0.5% vs. 0.7% exp. The Aud/usd has fallen as low as .9270 from highs around .9377 before the number. The HSBC/Markit China flash PMI measure of China’s factory activity rose to 48.3 points in April from 48 in March matching median Bloomberg estimates. Readings below 50 indicate a slowdown in activity. The most significant of the U.S. data releases yesterday were the existing home sales report and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index both of which printed above market expectations. The other key majors have continued to range trade over the last 24 hours (Cable 1.6798-1.6839, Usd/jpy 102.41-102.69, Euro 1.3785-1.3837).
Today’s trading focus will be on the BOE minutes, preliminary PMI releases in Europe along with Markit Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales in the U.S. In New Zealand the RBNZ interest rate decision will feature with the market expecting a 25bps hike to 3.0% in the cash rate.
Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.
EUR/USD Intraday: PRELIMINARY PMI RELEASES UNLIKELY TO INSPIRE
Pivot: 1.3805, R1 1.3825, R2 1.38448, R3 1.38846, S1 1.37852, S2 1.37652, S3 1.37254 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).
Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3770/85 zone, Medium 1.3740/50.
Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3835/40, Minor 1.3860/65, Very Minor 1.3875/80.
View: The Euro looks likely to languish again with a 1.3780/1.3840 range on the cards today.
Technical Comment: The daily tech's are generally soft although the Stochs are nearing the o/sold bounds, the 4H tech's are firming, the 1H's look heavy after the fall from the highs (ADX aside).
GBP/USD Intraday: BOE MINUTES IN FOCUS
Pivot: 1.68168, R1 1.68475, R2 1.68705, R3 1.69241, S1 1.67938, S2 1.67631, S3 1.67095.
Support Levels: Minor 1.6770/80, 1.6745/50.
Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6840/45, Minor 1.6875/80.
View: We will leave the Cable today with the BOE minutes out, the techs look soft and we favour 1.6840/45 to continue to cap with 1.6770 in view, and 1.6745/50.
Technical Comment: The daily tech's are ebbing lower, the 4H's look soft led by the Stochs and RSI, the 1H's are heavy across the board.
USD/JPY Intraday: MORE RANGE TRADING LIKELY
Pivot: 102.585, R1 102.753, R2 102.894, R3 103.203, S1 102.444, S2 102.276, S3 101.967.
Support Levels: Minor 102.35/45, Very Minor 102.10/15.
Resistance Levels: Minor 102.70/75, Very Minor 102.80/85, Extremely Minor 102.90/95.
View: We favour a continuation today of the range trading conditions, 102.35-102.75.
Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (although the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are mixed to firm.
AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE FALTERS ON WEAK 2014 Q1 CPI.
Pivot: .93557, R1 .93891, R2 .94116, R3 .94675, S1 .93332, S2 .92998, S3 .92439.
Support Levels: Very Minor .9260/65, .9250/55, .9230/35, .9220/25, Minor .9200/05.
Resistance Levels: Minor .9305/15, .9330/35, Very Minor .9345/50.
View: We will let the Aussie settle after today's crash but favour rallies to be capped just above .9300 today (.9300/10). On the downside spec buyers could look to the .9220/35 area to buy, stops under .9200.
Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy across the board, the 4H's are heavy and include a recent Macd/signal line cross sell alert, the 1H's are heavy (the Stochs and RSI are o/sold)
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Market Summary - by Simon Coulter of MahiFX
A sharply weaker Australian dollar was the feature of an otherwise quiet days trading in Asia. The sharp fall came on the back of a weaker than expected 2014 Q1 CPI outturn. The annual pace of underlying inflation came in at 2.6% versus expectations for a 2.9% outcome. The underlying QoQ number printed at 0.5% vs. 0.7% exp. The Aud/usd has fallen as low as .9270 from highs around .9377 before the number. The HSBC/Markit China flash PMI measure of China’s factory activity rose to 48.3 points in April from 48 in March matching median Bloomberg estimates. Readings below 50 indicate a slowdown in activity. The most significant of the U.S. data releases yesterday were the existing home sales report and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index both of which printed above market expectations. The other key majors have continued to range trade over the last 24 hours (Cable 1.6798-1.6839, Usd/jpy 102.41-102.69, Euro 1.3785-1.3837).
Today’s trading focus will be on the BOE minutes, preliminary PMI releases in Europe along with Markit Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales in the U.S. In New Zealand the RBNZ interest rate decision will feature with the market expecting a 25bps hike to 3.0% in the cash rate.
Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis
The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.
EUR/USD Intraday: PRELIMINARY PMI RELEASES UNLIKELY TO INSPIRE
Pivot: 1.3805, R1 1.3825, R2 1.38448, R3 1.38846, S1 1.37852, S2 1.37652, S3 1.37254 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).
Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3770/85 zone, Medium 1.3740/50.
Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3835/40, Minor 1.3860/65, Very Minor 1.3875/80.
View: The Euro looks likely to languish again with a 1.3780/1.3840 range on the cards today.
Technical Comment: The daily tech's are generally soft although the Stochs are nearing the o/sold bounds, the 4H tech's are firming, the 1H's look heavy after the fall from the highs (ADX aside).

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE MINUTES IN FOCUS
Pivot: 1.68168, R1 1.68475, R2 1.68705, R3 1.69241, S1 1.67938, S2 1.67631, S3 1.67095.
Support Levels: Minor 1.6770/80, 1.6745/50.
Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6840/45, Minor 1.6875/80.
View: We will leave the Cable today with the BOE minutes out, the techs look soft and we favour 1.6840/45 to continue to cap with 1.6770 in view, and 1.6745/50.
Technical Comment: The daily tech's are ebbing lower, the 4H's look soft led by the Stochs and RSI, the 1H's are heavy across the board.

USD/JPY Intraday: MORE RANGE TRADING LIKELY
Pivot: 102.585, R1 102.753, R2 102.894, R3 103.203, S1 102.444, S2 102.276, S3 101.967.
Support Levels: Minor 102.35/45, Very Minor 102.10/15.
Resistance Levels: Minor 102.70/75, Very Minor 102.80/85, Extremely Minor 102.90/95.
View: We favour a continuation today of the range trading conditions, 102.35-102.75.
Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (although the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are mixed to firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE FALTERS ON WEAK 2014 Q1 CPI.
Pivot: .93557, R1 .93891, R2 .94116, R3 .94675, S1 .93332, S2 .92998, S3 .92439.
Support Levels: Very Minor .9260/65, .9250/55, .9230/35, .9220/25, Minor .9200/05.
Resistance Levels: Minor .9305/15, .9330/35, Very Minor .9345/50.
View: We will let the Aussie settle after today's crash but favour rallies to be capped just above .9300 today (.9300/10). On the downside spec buyers could look to the .9220/35 area to buy, stops under .9200.
Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy across the board, the 4H's are heavy and include a recent Macd/signal line cross sell alert, the 1H's are heavy (the Stochs and RSI are o/sold)



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