Market Summary and Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 23 Apr 2014

Market Summary - by Simon Coulter of MahiFX

A sharply weaker Australian dollar was the feature of an otherwise quiet days trading in Asia. The sharp fall came on the back of a weaker than expected 2014 Q1 CPI outturn. The annual pace of underlying inflation came in at 2.6% versus expectations for a 2.9% outcome. The underlying QoQ number printed at 0.5% vs. 0.7% exp. The Aud/usd has fallen as low as .9270 from highs around .9377 before the number. The HSBC/Markit China flash PMI measure of China’s factory activity rose to 48.3 points in April from 48 in March matching median Bloomberg estimates. Readings below 50 indicate a slowdown in activity. The most significant of the U.S. data releases yesterday were the existing home sales report and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index both of which printed above market expectations. The other key majors have continued to range trade over the last 24 hours (Cable 1.6798-1.6839, Usd/jpy 102.41-102.69, Euro 1.3785-1.3837).

Today’s trading focus will be on the BOE minutes, preliminary PMI releases in Europe along with Markit Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales in the U.S. In New Zealand the RBNZ interest rate decision will feature with the market expecting a 25bps hike to 3.0% in the cash rate.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: PRELIMINARY PMI RELEASES UNLIKELY TO INSPIRE

Pivot: 1.3805, R1 1.3825, R2 1.38448, R3 1.38846, S1 1.37852, S2 1.37652, S3 1.37254 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3770/85 zone, Medium 1.3740/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3835/40, Minor 1.3860/65, Very Minor 1.3875/80.

View: The Euro looks likely to languish again with a 1.3780/1.3840 range on the cards today.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's are generally soft although the Stochs are nearing the o/sold bounds, the 4H tech's are firming, the 1H's look heavy after the fall from the highs (ADX aside).

GBP/USD Intraday: BOE MINUTES IN FOCUS

Pivot: 1.68168, R1 1.68475, R2 1.68705, R3 1.69241, S1 1.67938, S2 1.67631, S3 1.67095.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6770/80, 1.6745/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6840/45, Minor 1.6875/80.

View: We will leave the Cable today with the BOE minutes out, the techs look soft and we favour 1.6840/45 to continue to cap with 1.6770 in view, and 1.6745/50.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's are ebbing lower, the 4H's look soft led by the Stochs and RSI, the 1H's are heavy across the board.


USD/JPY Intraday: MORE RANGE TRADING LIKELY

Pivot: 102.585, R1 102.753, R2 102.894, R3 103.203, S1 102.444, S2 102.276, S3 101.967.

Support Levels: Minor 102.35/45, Very Minor 102.10/15.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.70/75, Very Minor 102.80/85, Extremely Minor 102.90/95.

View: We favour a continuation today of the range trading conditions, 102.35-102.75.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (although the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are mixed to firm.

AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE FALTERS ON WEAK 2014 Q1 CPI.

Pivot: .93557, R1 .93891, R2 .94116, R3 .94675, S1 .93332, S2 .92998, S3 .92439.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9260/65, .9250/55, .9230/35, .9220/25, Minor .9200/05.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9305/15, .9330/35, Very Minor .9345/50.

View: We will let the Aussie settle after today's crash but favour rallies to be capped just above .9300 today (.9300/10). On the downside spec buyers could look to the .9220/35 area to buy, stops under .9200.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy across the board, the 4H's are heavy and include a recent Macd/signal line cross sell alert, the 1H's are heavy (the Stochs and RSI are o/sold)




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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 30 Apr 2014

Market Summary and Pre-European Open Technical Analysis

It will be all eyes on the FOMC meeting later today where a $10 B monthly reduction in the Fed-tapering program is unanimously anticipated. Zero-rates forward guidance is also expected. Yesterday again saw the Euro fail at the 1.3880 level, the German CPI release saw the slide accelerate to ~ 1.3810 after the April CPI fell 0.2% MoM (-0.1% exp.), the YoY number rose 1.3% vs. the 1.4% expectations. The Cable also fell sharply on weaker than expected data, it was the U.K. Q1 GDP which underwhelmed the market at 0.8% QoQ (vs. 0.9% exp.), the Gbp/usd traded as low as 1.6793 from highs near 1.6850 at the time. The subsequent bounce has again failed around the 1.6850 area so far; the YoY number at 3.1% still shows a broadening U.K. recovery story overall however.

The Usd/jpy again failed near familiar resistance levels (102.70/75) after topping at 102.78 to be trading at 102.35 currently. The Aud/usd found support above the Asian session lows of .9227 (.9234 lows) to be trading at .9280 currently. The U.S. ADP employment report, Euro-zone provisional April CPI, and the advanced reading of the U.S. Q1 GDP will feature on the data calendar today.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE GERMAN CPI UNDERWHELMS, FOMC IN FOCUS TODAY

Pivot: 1.38322, R1 1.3859, R2 1.39061, R3 1.3980, S1 1.37851, S2 1.37583, S3 1.36844 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3775/ 90 zone, Minor 1.3745/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3875/80, Minor 1.3905/10.

View: The Euro is in no-mans land here ahead of the FOMC, we see the potential for a wide 1.3770-1.3875 range today, we favour shorts overall above 1.3855 would be best, 1.3875 ideal (stops above 1.3910).

Technical Comment: The daily tech's have soured led by the stochs, the 4H's also point to Euro downside (the Stochs are o/sold, DI- is rising), the 1H's are consolidating.


GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE SLUMPS BRIEFLY ON THE Q1 GDP RELEASE

Pivot: 1.68225, R1 1.68521, R2 1.68769, R3 1.69313, S1 1.67977, S2 1.67681, S3 1.67137.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6775/80, Minor 1.6760/65, 1. 6745/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6845/50, 1.6875/80, 1.6900/10.

View: The Cable is a tough call with the FOMC out, we favour buying dips from 1.6765-1.6790 overall for a push through 1.6850 to 1.6875/80.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's continue to have a firm tone, the 4H's are ebbing higher, the 1H's are led by firm Stochs and look firm overall.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY FAILS NEAR OLD RES. AT 102.70/75

Pivot: 102.63, R1 102.791, R2 102.944, S3 103.259, S1 102.477, S2 102.316, S3 102.001.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.30/35 (very close), 102.20/25, Minor/Medium 101.95/102.05, Very Minor 101.80/85, 101.65/70, 101.50/55, Major 101.20/30.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 102.75/85, Very Minor 102.95/00.

View: The Usd/jpy has again struggled around the 102.70 area, we see a likely whippy session between 101.70 and 102.95 today. Likely mid range right here.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed adding little, the 4H's are heavy led by the Stochs and RSI, the 1H's look poor (although the Stochs are in the o/sold bound and ticking higher).


AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RECOVERS FROM ITS LOWS, FOMC NEXT FOR FRESH DIRECTION

Pivot: .92594, R1 .92907, R2 .9313, R3 .93666, S1 .92371, S2 .92058, S3 .91522.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9250/60, Minor .9220/25, .9200/05, .9165/70.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9315/20, Very Minor .9330/35, Minor .9345/50.

View: The Aussie outlook looks better but the FOMC will dictate, we will look to position around a potential range of ~.9225-.9325/30. Square here.

Technical Comment: The daily Stochs and RSI are improving (the MACD and DMI much less so), the 4H's point to Aussie upside, the 1H's are firm.

https://d3sgrjz8wd57s0.cloudfront.net/cache/d9/fe/d9feb5f6a036c3e31660ac7e103c551c.png





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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 07 May 2014

Market Summary by Simon Coulter for MahiFX

Explosive moves in many of the majors yesterday especially the high yielders as traders acted on the inability of the USD to make gains after the recent run of stronger data, the most notable being the recent April NFP release last week (+288k). The Aud/usd broke the key .9320 res. level to trade as high as .9367. The Kiwi also fared well trading up to .8779 (new 2014 highs) before slumping back under .8700 as the RBNZ governor Wheeler reiterated his displeasure with the high NZ dollar, in the process saying it would be ‘more opportune’ for intervention at elevated levels. The Euro traded up to the 1.3950 level whilst the Cable rally fell just short of 1.7000 as the U.K. service sector PMI exceeded expectations at 58.7, the 16th consecutive month of expansion. The Usd/jpy continued its slide but has held the 101.50 level so far. The Australian unemployment numbers for April are the feature of the data calendar tomorrow.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO BREAKS UP ON THE WEAKER USD, 1.3966 YEARLY HIGHS IN SIGHT

Pivot: 1.3917, R1 1.39619, R2 1.39962, R3 1.40754, S1 1.38827, S2 1.38379, S3 1.37587 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3900/05, Minor/Medium 1.3880/90, Very Minor 1.3860/65, 1.3850/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3940/50, 1.3965/70.

View: We favour longs phased in between 1.3890 and 1.3910 for 1.3965 and higher, stops under 1.3850 based on the firming tech's. The Euro is our least favoured trade today so we will leave it.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm with some momentum being added over the last session, the 4H's are mixed although the ADX is high, DI+ is above DI-, the 1H's point to some downside consolidation.


GBP/USD Intraday: THE RELENTLESS CABLE SURGE CONTINUES, 1.7000 CAPS FOR NOW.

Pivot: 1.69459, R1 1.70251, S2 1.70754, 1.7205, S1 1.68955, S2 1.68163, S3 1.66868.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6910/20, Extremely Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.7000/05, Medium/Major 1.7040/50.

View: The Cable looks solid although somewhat over-stretched for now, we favour buyers targeting 1.6920/30 for longs on a consolidation but remain bullish overall.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong with good momentum (a high and rising ADX, the RSI is o/bght), the 4H's are firm but have eased a little in Asia, the 1H's are consolidating lower overall.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE WEAKER DOLLAR SEES THE USD/JPY SLIDE CONTINUE TO 101.50.

Pivot: 101.79, R1 102.08, R2 102.478, R3 103.165, S1 101.393, S2 101.103, S3 100.415.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.50/55, Major 101.20/30, 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Minor, 101.85/95, Very Minor 102.20/25, 102.30/35, 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy looks vulnerable but has some support at 101.50. 101.20/30 and 100.70/80 hold the key otherwise a sustained downmove looks likely. We favour shorts at 101.75/85 for a test of the key 101.20/30 lvl, stops above 102.25.

Technical Comment: The dailies point to additional Usd/jpy downside (the MACD adds little), the 4H's are soft but not accelerating, the 1H's are relatively flat.


AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE BREAKS KEY .9320 RES. TO TRADE AT 2 WEEK HIGHS.

Pivot: .9330, R1 .9389, R2 .94265, R3 .9523, S1 .92925, S2 .92335, S3 .9137.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9365/70, Minor .9375/80, .9385/90, .9420/25.

View: The Aussie burst through .9320 was somewhat surprising although in line with the weak USD. We favour longs targeting .9320/30 for entry, adding at .9300/05, stops under .9270 (moving, under hourly down-trend line), long term bulls could stop under .9250.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm across the board led by the RSI and Stochs (the ADX is still reasonably low though (rising)), the 4H's are firm but are easing (esp. the Stochs/RSI and DI+), the 1H's are consolidating.




 
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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 08 May 2014

Market Summary - by MahiFX

A surge in the Aud/usd from the prior .9320 resistance level was the feature of trading in Asia today as the Aussie rose 0.6% to .9375 highs. The better than expected April employment data release was behind the move and has many picking a shift towards an RBA tightening bias in the months ahead. The jobless rate remained at 5.8% defying expectations of a rise to 5.9%, the economy added 14,200 new jobs, all full-time, above the 8,800 expectations. The Euro and Cable consolidated after the strong gains made earlier in the week, the Euro sagged to 1.3905, and the Gbp/usd drifting down to 1.6943 lows. Janet Yellen’s speech held few surprises as she reiterated the Feds’ commitment to the tapering path with purchases ending in Q4 2014 and the first rate hikes not until well into 2015. Concerns were expressed over housing activity indicators. The ECB and BOE interest rate decisions will be the feature of trading today, forward guidance on quantitative easing is expected to play a key role in the Euro direction, whilst the recent strength in the U.K. economic data will have many pundits looking for guidance of an earlier hike in interest rates than the Q2 2015 market consensus.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ECB MEETING THE FOCUS FOR TODAY

Pivot: 1.39197, R1 1.39293, R2 1.39483, R3 1.39769, S1 1.39007, S2 1.38911, S3 1.38265 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3900/05, Minor/Medium 1.3880/90, Very Minor 1.3860/65, 1.3850/55.

Resistance Levels: 1.3940/50, 1.3965/70.

View: The ECB will likely dicate direction today, we retain a bullish bias and favour 1.3880 to hold for another look at the 1.3965/70 2014 highs. Caution required.

Technical Comment: The dailies have changed little from yesterday and are firm on balance, the 4H's are mixed to heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's add little.


GBP/USD Intraday: BOE IN THE LIMELIGHT TODAY

Pivot: 1.69635, R1 1.69751, R2 1.69978, R3 1.70321, S1 1.69408, S2 1.69292, S3 1.68949.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6910/20, Extremely Minor 1.6845/55.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.7000/05, Medium/Major 1.7040/50.

View: The Cable could move a bit today on the BOE, we favour longs between 1.6900/1.6920 although caution is needed over the BOE, probably easier trades today but the outlook is bullish.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look firm although have kicked on little from yesterday, the 4H's are falling (the Stochs sharply so, although are o/sold), the 1H's are beginning a small recovery.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY RECOVERS FROM THE 101.40 DOWNSIDE SLUMP

Pivot: 101.781, R1 102.13, R2 102.358, R3 102.935, S1 101.553, S2 101.204, S3 100.627.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.40/45, Major 101.20/30, 100.70/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.20/25, 102.30/35, 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy has had a nice bounce out of the 101.40 area, so far capped at 102.00, we would look to stay short here , stops above 102.25 for 101.45 and 101.25.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look sluggish although have not deteriorated further, the 4H's are mixed (although the Stochs are firm), the 1H's are ambling sideways overall.

AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE RALLY CONTINUES ON APRIL EMPLOYMENT DATA

Pivot: .93336, R1 .93488, R2 .93697, R3 .94058, S1 .93127, S2 .92975, S3 .92614.

Support Levels: Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9375/80, .9385/90, .9420/25, Medium .9460/65

View: The Aussie rally has resumed off the old .9320 resistance after the firm data, we will look to trim longs between .9380/90 but would not entertain shorts until .9420, late buyers could target .9345.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look firm, the 4H's are also rising, the 1H's are strong but the RSI and Stochs are in the o/bght zone.




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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 14 May 2014

MahiFX Market Summary and Technical Analysis

The Euro slump resumed in trading yesterday as news flow supported the prospect of fresh ECB easing in June after the German ZEW Economic Sentiment expectations survey disappointed falling to 33.1 from 43.2 (41.0 exp.). The slide from the resistance near 1.3775 accelerated after the markets reacted to a WSJ article, which stated that the German Bundesbank would support a range of ECB policy actions aimed at targeting the current low inflation levels. The Bundesbank later attempted to clarify the comments saying the stance was not new (the bank has been a strong opponent to extraordinary monetary policy measures for many years).

USD retail sales for April underwhelmed at +0.1% MoM (0.4% exp), although an upgrade to the March number (from +1.1% to 1.5% MoM) affirmed the upward trend in underlying sales, the Euro has traded down to 1.3689 lows so far. Softer Chinese data saw the Aussie trade down to .9333 before later rallying to .9397, whilst the Usd/jpy traded down to 102.06 from highs around 102.36. The Cable softened to lows around 1.6820 ahead to todays key unemployment data and the BOE inflation report.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: WEAK GERMAN ZEW SURVEY AND BUNDESBANK COMMENTS CONTRIBUTE TO NEXT EURO DOWN-LEG.

Pivot: 1.37214, R1 1.37535, R2 1.38038, R3 1.38862, S1 1.36711, S2 1.3639, S3 1.35566 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3670/75, 1.3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3740/45, Minor 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: The decline has extended to around 1.3690 meaning it has lost 3c from last week highs. This rally looks capable of snaping back to 1.3745 and 1.3770/75. On the downside we think additional large declines sub the 1.3640/70 zone are unlikely.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look heavy (the Stochs are o/sold) and the ADX is rising showing increased momentum, the 4H's are also soft (the Stochs and RSI are o/sold), the 1H's are edging up.



GBP/USD Intraday: UNEMPLOYMENT AND BOE INFLATION REPORT TODAY

Pivot: 1.68427, R1 1.6866, R2 1.69067, R3 1.69707, S1 1.6802, S2 1.67787, S3 1.67147.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6815/25, Very Minor 1.6800/05, 1.6770/75, 1.6760/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6880/85, Very Minor 1.6900/05, 1.6915/20.

View: The Cable has found demand at 1.6820 but it will be a tough day with the BOE inflation report and unemploy. data. For now 1.6820 and 1.6760/75 look key on the downside, 1.6900/20 should see selling interest on top.

Technical Comment: The dailies point to downside vulnerability (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are improving, the 1H's are rising strongly (the Stochs are o/bght).


USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY CONSOLIDATES IN A TIGHT RANGE

Pivot: 102.228, R1 102.394, R2 102.531, R3 102.834, S1 102.091, S2 101.925, S3 101.622.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.00/05, 101.80/85, Minor 101.40/45, Major 101.20/30.

View: The Usd/jpy looks to be struggling to surpass 102.35/40 for now. We see 102.40 as the top with 101.85 in sight on the downside, 102.60/80 would be a great shorting opportunity, stops above 103.05.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (although the RSI has eased a touch), the 4H's are sliding led by the Stochs (watch for a Macd/signal line cross sell alert), the 1H's are easing (Stochs aside).



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE BOUNCES ~ 0.65 C FROM ITS LOWS, .9385/00 RESISTANCE ZONE IS BEING CHALLENGED

Pivot: .93583, R1 .93832, R2 .94075, R3 .94567, S1 .9334, S2 .93091, S3 .92599.

Support Levels: Minor .9345/50, Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9385/00, Minor .9420/25, Medium .9460/65.

View: The break of .9345 only saw .9333 ahead of good support. We don't think chasing this rally will be wise at these levels despite .9425 being attainable. We will look to play short at .9415/25 with stops above .9465 for .9350/55.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (the stochs are tracking sideways), the 4H's are also looking strong, the 1H's are rising sharply (the stocks are o/bght).







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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 15 May 2014

Market Summary and Technical Analysis

A weaker Cable was the main feature of trading in the majors yesterday as it continued its recent slide from its 2014 highs near 1.7000 set last week to trade down to 1.6753. The B.O.E.’s quarterly Inflation Report failed to affirm the expectations of many who were anticipating the Bank would signal a greater readiness to tighten policy from the current record-low 0.5% Bank Rate which has been in place since March 2009. The JPY firmed to highs of 101.66 against the dollar (101.85 currently) as expectations diminish that the BOJ will imminently introduce fresh monetary stimulus. The Aussie rally continued in early trading before peaking at .9410, the retracement has so far held .9360. Market focus today will center on Fed chair Janet Yellen’s address to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The final reading of Euro-zone inflation for April and U.S inflation numbers also for April are likely to be the highlights on the data calendar.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: APRIL EURO-ZONE INFLATION AWAITED TODAY

Pivot: 1.37146, R1 1.37311, R2 1.37478, R3 1.3781, S1 1.36979, S2 1.36814, S3 1.36482 (All pivost are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3670/75, 1.3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3740/45, Minor 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: We favour waiting for a bounce to sell, 1.3740 and 1.3770, small positions initially, wide stops above 1.3810 make the trade tough, targeting 1.3670 and 1.3640.

Technical Comment: The dailies have held their ground although are still weak (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are firming (and include a bullish Macd/signal line cross), the 1H's are mainly improving (Stochs aside).


GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE WEAKENS ON A DOVISH BOE INFLATION ASSESSMENT

Pivot: 1.67987, R1 1.68432, R2 1.6919, R3 1.70393, S1 1.67229, S2 1.66784, S3 1.65581.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6740/45, Very Minor 1.6715/20, 1.6680/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6815/25, Very Minor 1.6835/45.

View: The Cable is friendless at the moment and more downside looks likely. We prefer to trade elsewhere, aggressive sellers could target 1.6780/85, 1.6810/15 for more conservative players.

Technical Comment: The dailies have continued to deteriorate (the Stochs are o/sold), the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs and RSI are hovering in the o/sold bound), the 1H's are moving higher.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY FIRMS TO LOWS BELOW 101.70 AGAINST THE USD

Pivot: 101.965, R1 102.207, S2 102.528, S3 103.092, S1 101.644, S2 101.401, S3 100.838.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.65/70, Minor 101.40/45, Major 101.20/30.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.00/10, Minor 102.35/40, Very Minor 102.50/55, Medium 102.65/80 zone

View: The Usd/jpy slide wasn't surprising but its tougher to call today. 101.45-102.05 looks most likely, but better selling interest will reside at 102.30/40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are easing although lack momentum, the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are firming (the DMI aside, the ADX is low)



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE FAILS TO HOLD ABOVE 94 CENTS

Pivot: .93809, R1 .94072, R2 .94354, R3 .94899, S1 .93527, S2 .93264, S3 .92719.

Support Levels: Minor .9345/50, Medium .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9410/15, Minor .9420/25, Medium .9460/65.

View: The Aussie couldn't hold above 94c as expected, we see more trading between .9345 and .9410 as being most likely, we favour shorts overall for .9330 and .9315, stops above .9430

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly tracking sideways (although the Stochs are easing), the 4H's are heavy (although the ADX reading is low), the 1H's are mixed.







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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 19 May 2014

Market Summary and Technical Analysis

Muted movements in the majors on Friday in a very quiet session that saw the Euro trade down to 1.3685 (highs 1.3727), the Cable rally continued to 1.6840 whilst the Aussie traded .9335-.9375. Property headlines dominated the news, Chinese property data showed further evidence of a deflating bubble. The number of cities reporting rising prices declined to 44/70 from 56/70 in March with 8 of the 70 reporting price falls, double the March number. The BOE Governor Mark Carney also identifies surging house prices as the biggest risk to the U.K. economy, hinting at a macro-prudential response. U.S. data releases on Friday were mixed, April housing starts were notably stronger than expectations (13.2% MoM vs. 3.6% exp.) whilst the University of Michigan Confidence survey disappointed (81.8 vs. 84.5 exp.)

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO DIRECTION-LESS IN FRIDAY/MONDAY TRADE

Pivot: 1.37021, R1 1.37187, R2 1.37436, R3 1.37851, S1 1.36772, S2 1.36606, S3 1.36191 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3680/85, Medium/Major 1.3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3740/45, 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: The Euro looks likely to drift today with the market lacking inspiration 1.3680/1.3740.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed (DI- is above DI+ and the ADX is rising/high), the 4H's are edging higher, the 1H's are strong (the Stochs are o/bght).



GBP/USD Intraday: CARNEY WARNS OF RISK POSED BY SURGING U.K. HOUSE PRICES.

Pivot: 1.68124, R1 1.68421, R2 1.68705, R3 1.69266, S1 1.6784, S2 1.67543, S3 1.66962.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6800/05, 1.6775/80, Minor/Medium 1.6715/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6835/45, 1.6875/85, 1.6900/05.

View: We prefer to leave the Cable in favour of the Aussie and Usd/jpy, it looks a bit firmer today but the dull Asian session gives little away. 1.6780/1.6880 looks likely pre tommorrows data.

Technical Comment: The dailies are led by firm Stochs and an RSI edging higher but are mixed overall, the 4H's are mainly firm (the stochs are easing from the o/bght zone), the 1H's are tracking sideways.


USD/JPY Intraday: USD/JPY LIFELESS ON FRIDAY

Pivot: 101.515, R1 101.666, R2 101.826, R3 102.137, S1 101.355, S2 101.204, S3 100.893.

Support Levels: Major/Critical 101.20/30, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.55/65.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 101.65/70, Very Minor 102.00/10, Minor 102.35/40, Very Minor 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy has been particularly dull. The 101.20/30 area looks pivotal . Will look to sell short at 101.15, reverse stop above 101.75. On the topside we look to sell small at 101.65/70, waiting till 102.05/10 and 102.30 to add larger, stops above 102.40.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft (the Stochs most so, the ADX is low indicating low momentum), the 4H's are edging higher, the 1H's are firm.


AUD/USD Intraday: RANGE TRADERS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE

Pivot: .93569, R1 .93789, R2 .9393, R3 .94291, S1 .93428, S2 .93208, S3 .92847.

Support Levels: Medium/Major .9315/30 zone, Minor .9295/00.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9375/80, Very Minor .9390/95, Minor .9410/15, .9420/25.

View: Unchanged from Friday, The Aussie looks soft but lacks momentum to extend lower. We will look to sell at .9370/75 (small) for a return to .9330/35, adding larger at .9390,.9405/10, stops above .9430.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soggy and include a recent Macd/signal cross sell alert, the 4H's are mixed/tracking sideways, the 1H's are uninspiring.







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The Daily Score - 21 May 2014

Market Summary by Simon Coulter of MahiFX

The Aud/usd was again the feature currency of the majors yesterday continuing its rapid decline that had started in Asia where model and momentum stop sellers were seen on the break of .9320. The Aussie has traded down to .9217 in Asian trade (from ~.9300) as the market absorbed the combined news of potential S&P downgrades, lower iron ore prices (-7.5% in May so far) and comments from the assistant RBA governor who suggested that AUD supportive capital flows have mostly concluded. The JPY firmed again to highs of 101.14 against the dollar having earlier weakened to 101.60 yesterday. The BOJ kept their interest rates unchanged at 0.1% as expected during the Asian session. The Cable rallied to a high of 1.6864 on a stronger than expected April core CPI release (2.0% YoY, vs. 1.8% exp). Market focus today will center on the BOE and FOMC minutes, U.K. retail sales data also features.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO CONTINUES TO SEEK FRESH DIRECTION

Pivot: 1.36978, R1 1.37176, R2 1.37339, R3 1.3770, S1 1.36815, S2 1.36617, S3 1.36256 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3675/85, Medium/Major 1. 3640/45, Minor 1.3620/25.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3735/45, 1.3775/90 zone, 1.3805/10.

View: The Euro needs to clear 1.3740 and 1.3675 for fresh direction, another rangy day looks likely and we aren't prepared to call the break direction.

Technical Comment: Like yesterday the dailies are still mixed, the 4H's are firming (esp. the stochs), the 1H's are mainly edging up (stochs aside)



GBP/USD Intraday: CABLE LARGELY UNCHANGED DESPITE HIGHER CPI OUT-TURN

Pivot: 1.68359, R1 1.68692, R2 1.68996, R3 1.69634, S1 1.68054, S2 1.67721, S3 1.67081.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6800/05, 1.6775/80, Minor/Medium 1.6715/30 zone.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6875/85, 1.6900/05.

View: More action within the 1.6800/1.6870 range looks most likely today and like the Euro it is not easy to call the next move.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still improving moderately, the 4H's are reasonably firm (the Stochs and RSI are mainly flat), the 1H's are easing (Stochs aside).



USD/JPY Intraday: NO CHANGE FROM BOJ

Pivot: 101.373, R1 101.555, R2 101.782, R3 102.191, S1 101.146, S2 100.964, S3 100.555.

Support Levels: Minor 101.00/10, Medium 100.70/80, Minor/Medium 100.55/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor 101.65/70, 102.00/10, 102.35/40, Very Minor 102.50/55.

View: The Usd/jpy looks heavy on all counts but buyers ahead of 101.00 are making the slide very slow going. With talk of barrier interest at 101.00 sellers may wish to wait for a break of here. On the topside we expect selling interest in the 101.45/60 zone to cap. Watch for BOJ commentary.

Technical Comment: The dailies are universally soft (the ADX is rising), the 4H's are also soft, the 1H's complete the negative Usd/jpy outlook.



AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE SLIDE CONTINUES ON RBA MINUTES/LOWER IRON ORE PX'S

Pivot: .92734, R1 .93053, R2 .93676, R3 .94618, S1 .92111, S2 .91792, S3 .9085.

Support Levels: Minor .9215/25, .9200/05, Very Minor .9165/70.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9250/55, .9280/85, Minor .9295/05, Minor/Medium .9315/30 zone.

View: The Aussie has had a terrible last 24 hours. We are not fussed in chasing it here as many short term tech's are o/sold, we think it is capable of a bounce to .9260 and perhaps .9280. On the downside .9200/10 should see good demand on the day. Short side favoured.

Technical Comment: The dailies are heavy (the Stochs are entering the o/sold bound), the 4H's are heavy (both the RSI and Stochs are in the o/sold bound, the ADX is high), the 1H's are starting to improve.







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The Daily Score - 02 June 2014

Market Summary by MahiFX

The Aussie dollar was the big mover in Asian trade as it reversed much of last weeks gains on the back of disappointing April Building Approvals data which showed a 5.6% drop over the month (vs. +2% exp.) and 1.1% over the year (exp. +12.3%), Q1 inventories fell 1.7% (-0.4% exp). Sharp falls in consumer confidence since the hard-hitting budget helped contribute to falls in house prices in Australia’s capital cities for the first time in 12 months according to the Rismark home value index (-1.9% in May). The Aussie has slumped to .9262 lows from .9317 so far. The Euro and Pound both firmed marginally against the USD on Friday (Euro highs 1.3650, Cable 1.6777), whilst the USD firmed against he JPY to highs around 102.08 in Asian trade today. Markit Manufacturing PMI data will feature today in the U.K., U.S. and Europe, the RBA interest rate decision will feature in Asian trade tomorrow where no change to the 2.5% cash rate is expected.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: PMI DATA AWAITED, 1.3650 HAS CAPPED SO FAR

Pivot: 1.36273, R1 1.36565, R2 1.3679, R3 1.37307, S1 1.36048, S2 1.35756, S3 1.35239 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/90, Minor/Medium 1.3560/65, 1.3545/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.3645/50, Minor/Medium 1.3670/75.

View: The daily tech's are improving a touch, longs could lever off 1.3580/90 although we would prefer to trade elsewhere, we would be surprised to see 1.3670/75 cleared today, shorts preferred overall.

Technical Comment: The daily tech's are beginning to imrpove (led by the Stochs, the ADX is starting to decline, -DI also), the 4H's are easing (the MACD aside), the 1H's are mixed.


GBP/USD Intraday: 1.6780 CAPS THE CABLE BOUNCE FOR THE TIME BEING

Pivot: 1.67481, R1 1.67825, R2 1.68114, R3 1.68747, S1 1.67192, S2 1.66848, S3 1.66215.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6730/40, 1.6690/95, Minor 1.6680/85, Very Minor 1.6655/65 (61.8% Fib retrace. of 1.6457-1.6996, old supp./res.).

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6800/05, Minor 1.6815/20.

View: The Cable has been rejected off 1.6780, if short (near there) we would cover small near here, stops on the remainder above 1.6820 for 1.6695, downside momentum is waning so we don't expect too much for now.

Technical Comment: The dailies remain soft (although the RSI/Stochs have ticked higher), the 4H's are easing (MACD aside), the 1H's are heavy.



USD/JPY Intraday: JPY SOFTER IN ASIAN TRADE

Pivot: 101.68, R1 101.879, R2 102.043, R3 102.406, S1 101.516, S2 101.317, S3 100.954

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50, 101.30/35.

Resistance Levels: Minor 102.10/15, Minor/Medium 102.35/40, Medium 102.65/80 zone.

View: The Usd/jpy has been firm but we would be surprised if this rally could extend beyond 102.40, we will move short stops to above there. Late shorts could lever of this level.

Technical Comment: The dailies have turned higher from Friday, the 4H's are firming (the Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's are beginning to ease from o/bght lvls.




AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE SLUMPS ON WEAK BUILDING APPROVALS DATA

Pivot: .93084, R1 .93284, R2 .93488, R3 .93892, S1 .9288, S2 .9268, S3 .92276

Support Levels: Very Minor .9245/50, .9230/35, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9285/90, Medium .9320/30, Very Minor .9345/50.

View: The Aussie has had a poor session, the momentum is currently lower but we would be surprised to see sub. 9230 today (.9245/50 most likely), rallies should see selling at .9285/90. .9200/10 is major support.

Technical Comment: The dailies have turned lower (the MACD is still flat), the 4H's point to a heavy tone, the 1H's are heavy (although the Stochs are o/sold).



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The Daily Score - 04 June 2014

Market Summary

Predictable trading ranges in most of the majors. The Euro continued to hold the 1.3585 level after Euro-zone inflation rose just 0.5% YoY in May, this came as little surprise after Mondays weak German inflation print. Thursday’s ECB policy meeting is firmly in focus as the market waits for which additional credit easing measures will be introduced. The Euro rally has again failed ahead of 1.3650. U.S. factory orders beat expectations rising 0.7% in April (0.5% exp.), the March number was also revised 0.4 ppts higher. The Cable rallied to the 1.6780 level again but has reverted to 1.6725 in Asian trade. The Usd/jpy has continued to rally peaking at 102.80 so far. The Aussie had a boost on firmer than expected 2014Q1 GDP data, which was led by mining and construction gains (+1.1% QoQ vs. 1.0% exp.) rallying above yesterdays .9287 highs to .9297 before retreating to .9265 currently

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ECB THE FOCUS FROM HERE

Pivot: 1.36209, R1 1.36546, R2 1.36817, R3 1.37425, S1 1.35938, S2 1.35601, S3 1.34993 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3580/90, Minor/Medium 1.3560/65, 1. 3545/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3645/50, 1.3670/75.

View: The Euro has respected ranges over the last 24 hours, we have a similar view to yesterday and continue to think the Euro will be largely contained within the range pre the ECB.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to drift higher from a soft base, the 4H's are easing (MACD aside), the 1H's are heavy (rising ADX).



GBP/USD Intraday: SERVICES PMI DATA IN FOCUS TODAY

Pivot: 1.67539, R1 1.67771, R2 1.68053, R3 1.68566,S1 1.67258, S2 1.67026, S3 1.66513.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 1.6715/20, Very Minor 1.6690/95, Minor 1.6680/85, Very Minor 1.6655/65 (61.8% Fib retrace. of 1.6457-1.6996, old supp./res.).

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6800/05, Minor 1.6815/20.

View: Like the Euro the Cable has conformed to the recent range although looks soft. Whilst we see 1.6660 as the target the trade makes little sense when stops need to be above 1.6785 and support at 1.6690 would need to break also.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to ebb lower (Stochs aside), the 4H's point to a weak outlook (watch for a Macd/signal line cross sell alert), the 1H's are heavy.

USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD RALLY FAILS TO PAUSE, 102.80 HIGHS SO FAR

Pivot: 102.444, R1 102.616, R2 102.725, R3 103.006, S1 102.335, S2 102.163, S3 101.882.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.25/30, 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50,

Resistance Levels: Medium 102.75/80, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: Whilst the Usd/jpy looks strong it has often disappointed up here. Buyers may want to wait for a retracement to 102.25/35 rather than chasing here. A break of 103.00/05 brings 103.40 into view.

Technical Comment: The dailies are strong (the ADX is rising, the stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are strong (both the RSI and Stochs are o/bght), the 1H's complete the strong tech outlook.


AUD/USD Intraday: GDP SPIKE SHORT LIVED

Pivot: .92609, R1 .9292, R2 .93183, R3 .93757, S1 .92346, S2 .92035, S3 .91461.

Support Levels: Minor .9230/35, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels:Minor .9285/90, Medium .9320/30.

View: The Aussie looks happy rattling around in ranges. We see .9230/45 forming a base, .9295/.9315 forming a top, stops below .9200 and above .9330.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed, the 4H's are lifting a touch (lack momentum), the 1H's are mainly flat (the Stochs are easing).



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The Daily Score - 05 June 2014

Market Summary

Range trading mode was again the theme yesterday ahead of todays’ key ECB monetary policy meeting. Possible credit easing measures which the ECB may adopt today to help redress low Euro-zone inflation include amongst others, non-sterilization of SMP holdings, fresh broad-based asset purchases, cuts to the refi-rate (currently 0.25%) and the deposit rate (currently 0%), an extension to the existing long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) and/or a new LRTO that incentivizes banks to lend to SMEs. The Euro currently trades at 1.3600 from 1.3640 highs yesterday. The Usd/jpy was unable to top yesterdays ~102.80 Asian session highs and trades at 102.55 currently. The Cable traded 1.6698-1.6768, the market expects no policy change from the BOE meeting today. The Aussie consolidated in a .9258-.9289 range since our last report. Focus post the ECB will turn to Friday’s key U.S. NF Payrolls report where forecasts center on a gain of ~200,000 jobs.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: ITS ALL ABOUT THE ECB TODAY FOR THE EURO

Pivot: 1.36116, R1 1.36265, R2 1.3654, R3 1.36965, S1 1.3584, S2 1.35691, S3 1.35267 (All pivots are daily 5pm NY).

Support Levels: Medium 1.3580/90, Minor/Medium 1.3560/65, 1.3545/50.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3645/50, 1.3670/75.

View: Will stay out with the ECB, 1.3580/85, and 1.3650 are key but the market could easily break in one or both directions over the announcement.

Technical Comment: The dailies are similar to yesterday (drifting), the 4H's are soft, the 1H's are edging higher.



GBP/USD Intraday: BOE UNLIKELY TO SURPRISE

Pivot: 1.67349, R1 1.67709, R2 1.68049, R3 1.68749, S1 1.67009, S2 1.66649, S3 1.65949.

Support Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6690/95, Minor 1.6680/85, Very Minor 1.6655/65 (61.8% Fib retrace. of 1.6457-1.6996, old supp./res.).

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6800/05, Minor 1.6815/20.

View: The Cable is still very much locked between 1.6690 and 1.6780/85, the price action looks mildly positive but realistically the Euro and Eur/gbp flows will dictate today. Watch BOE also.

Technical Comment: The dailies have improved a touch (particularly the stochs), the 4H's are mixed, the 1H's are strong.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE USD/JPY EASES IN ASIAN TRADE

Pivot: 102,661, R1 102.883, R2 103.017, R3 103.373, S1 102.527, S2 102.305, S3 101.949.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.40/45, 102.25/30, 102.15/20, 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50,

Resistance Levels: Medium 102.75/80, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: Caution near 102.80 was warranted, we favour shorts now with stops above 102.85 though would like to see yesterdays lows break properly (102.43), 102.15/20 is the first target, 101.85/95 next.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm (but haven't gained since yest, the Stochs are still o/bght), the 4H's are deteriorating, the 1H's are heavy.



AUD/USD Intraday: THE AUSSIE CONSOLIDATES BELOW YESTERDAYS GDP HIGHS.

Pivot: .92764, R1 .9300, R2 .93232, R3 .9370, S1 .92532, S2 .92296, S3 .91828.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9255/60, .9240/45, Minor .9230/35, Medium/Major .9200/10.

Resistance Levels: Minor .9285/90, Medium .9320/30.

View: This move looks likely to press on to .9315/20 again, .9255/60 should see buying interest on the day.

Technical Comment: The dailies are largely flat with low momentum, the 4H's are similar (the Stochs/RSI are edging up), the 1H's are strong.



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The Daily Score - 09 June 2014

Market Summary

Some reasonable movement in the majors on Friday despite the May U.S. NF Payrolls coming in around expectations at +217,000, the unemployment rate remained at 6.3% (6.4 % exp). Equities continued their rally on the news and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 11 for its lowest close since 2007. The Euro traded between 1.3620 and 1.3677, the Cable 1.6780 and 1.6845, and the Aussie .9319-.9358. The JPY has slid off Friday’s highs against the USD (102.11) to be trading around 102.55 (102.65 lows) as the Japanese current account surplus in April fell to 187B JPY compared to the 288B JPY forecast. In the fiscal year ended March, the excess shrank to its lowest on record. The Japanese economy grew at an annualized 6.7% in the 3 months to March, the fastest pace since Q3 2011.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: THE EURO WHIPS AROUND 1.3650 AFTER THE NFP

Pivot: 1.3647, R1 1.3673, R2 1.37031, R3 1.37592, S1 1.36169, S2 1.35909, S3 1.35348. (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3620/25, 1.3580/85.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05, Minor 1.3730/40.

View: We are thinking Fridays ranges ahould be in play again today, 1.3620.1.3670-80, no real bias on direction.

Technical Comment: The dailies are little changed from Friday (Mixed, Stochs are the firmest), the 4H's are flat, the 1H's are flat (the Stochs and DI+ are ticking up).



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE CONTAINED POST THE NFP

Pivot: 1.68096, R1 1.6838, R2 1.68745, R3 1.69395, S1 1.67731, S2 1.67446, S3 1.66797.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Extremely Minor 1.6760/65.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6850/60, 1.6880/85.

View: We are looking for a quiet session with 1.6780 (1.6760 max.)/1.6850 again wrapping it up. Small up bias here, stops under 1.6720 (under 1.6690 best).

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm although the ADX is low suggesting little momentum, the 4H's are beginning to ease lower, the 1H's are mainly flat.



USD/JPY Intraday: THE JPY WEAKENS ON REDUCED SAFE HAVEN DEMAND/DATA

Pivot: 102.40, R1 102.681, R2 102.894, R3 103.388, S1 102.187, S2 101.906, S3 101.412.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Very Minor 102.10/15, Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: The Jpy met our first target but not the second on Friday. We continue to like 102.75/85 to cap but now favour buying dips targeting 102.30/35, stops under 101.80, tight <102.00.

Technical Comment: The dailies are reasonably firm although the Stochs have eased, the 4H's are drifting sideways with low momemtum, the 1H's are taking on a soft tone.



AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE FIRMS AS RISK SENTIMENT STAYS POSITIVE AFTER NFP

Pivot: .93368, R1 .93543, R2 .9376, R3 .94152, S1 .93151, S2 .92976, S3 .92584.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor .9355/60, Minor/Medium .9375/90 zone, Minor .9395/00, .9405/10.

View: We will look to remain small short and add near 70 with stops above .9400, for a return to .9330, and .9320.

Technical Comment: The dailies are moderately firm, the 4H's are also firming , the 1H's are firm (the Stochs are entering o/bght levels).



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The Daily Score - 10 June 2014

Market Summary

A subdued days’ trading yesterday in the majors as the data calendar was largely empty. The Euro had the best moves where if was seen weakening of highs around 1.3670 to 1.3582 lows. The Sentix survey of Eurozone investor confidence unexpectedly declined to 8.5 (13.3 expected), thin markets exacerbated the down-leg. The Aussie weakened off ~.9363 highs to .9338 whilst the Cable weakened in tandem with the Euro from its early highs around 1.6832, support at 1.6780 has continued to contain the down-move. U.K. Industrial Production data will feature today, the NIESR May U.K. GDP estimate will also be released.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: RESISTANCE ABOVE 1.3670 CONTINUES TO CAP

Pivot: 1.36152, R1 1.36477, R2 1.37014, R3 1.37876, S1 1.35615, S2 1.3529, S3 1.34428 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3580/85, Extremely Minor 1.3560/65, 1.3545/50, 1.3520/25, Minor 1.3500/05

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80, Very Minor 1.3700/05.

View: The Euro looks heavy, we are looking for 1.3620 to contain rallies but the real res. is near 1.3670, whilst 1.3575/80 holds range trading could ensue.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to have a weak tone (the ADX is high), the 4H's are also heavy (the ADX is increasing), the 1H's are soft.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE EASES FROM HIGHS ABOVE 1.6830 IN LINE WITH THE EURO

Pivot: 1.68066, R1 1.68293, R2 1.68551, R3 1.69036, S1 1.67808, S2 1.67581, S3 1.67096.

Support Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Extremely Minor 1.6760/65, Minor 1.6720/30.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.6830/35, Minor/Medium 1.6850/60, Minor 1.6880/85.

View: The Cable may make a break on todays data but the odds still seem to favour containment within 1.6760/1.6850. No real bias here.

Technical Comment: The dailies are edging higher (the ADX is still very low), the 4H's are turning higher, the 1H's are strong (the Stochs are o/bght).


SD/JPY Intraday: USD/JPY UNCHANGED IN QUIET TRADE

Pivot: 102.519, R1 102.66, R2 102.792, R3 103.065, S1 102.387, S2 102.246, S3 101.973.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor 102.30/35, Very Minor 102.10/15, Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85, Extremely Minor 102.85/90, Very Minor 103.00/05.

View: The Usd/jpy has taken on a heavy tone, rallies looked to be capped in the 102.65/80 zone, whilst the downside should see 102.10 hold, we expect the next 48 hours to be contained within.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mainly drifting lower but lack momentum (the ADX is also sliding), the 4H's point to downside pressure, the 1H's are heavy.


AUD/USD Intraday: AUSSIE TRACKS SIDEWAYS IN QUIET TRADE, OFFERS ABOVE .9360 CAP.

Pivot: .93514, R1 .93683, R2 .93804, R3 .94094, S1 .93393, S2 .93224, S3 .92934.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9330/35, .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor .9360/65, Minor/Medium .9375/90 zone, Minor .9395/00, .9405/10.

View: We continue to think rallies will struggle to top the .9365/80 zone, stops above .9400 on shorts, first supp. is ahead of .9335 then .9315/20.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are ticking higher, the 1H's are mixed.



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MahiFX

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Market Summary

The Euro slide continued in trade yesterday, weak support at 1.3580/85 gave way as the market continued to respond to the ECB’s policy loosening measures (lows 1.3521). The Cable eased in sympathy from ~1.6817 highs to its 1.6737 lows. U.K industrial output rose 0.4% in April from the month prior matching median Bloomberg expectations. The Aud/usd continued to firm peaking at .9390 so far, whilst the Usd/jpy had another quiet session drifting to lows around 102.21. Data releases today include the April U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate (6.7% exp. from 6.8%), Australian employment numbers for May (+10k exp.) and the RBNZ interest rate decision where the market is unanimous in its expectations of a third consecutive interest rate hike in the tightening cycle to 3.25% (from 3.0%, low in previous easing cycle 2.5%).

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EURO SOFTENS ON CONTINUED ECB FALL-OUT

Pivot: 1.3561, R1 1.35887, R2 1.36296, R3 1.36982, S1 1.35201, S2 1.34924, S3 1.34238 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.3520/25, Minor 1.3500/05, Minor/Medium 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 1.3555/65, Minor 1.3580/85, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: With the Euro closing in on the post ECB low (1.3503) we would be wary of initiating fresh shorts here. Downside targets for the bears are 1.3500/05 and 1.3470/80. On the topside shorts could target 1.3555/60 and 1.3570/80.

Technical Comment: The dailies continue to look poor (the ADX is still very high), the 4H's are also heavy (the ADX is high, the Stochs are o/sold), the 1 H's are soft but improving a touch.


GBP/USD Intraday: ILO EMPLOYMENT DATA AWAITED

Pivot: 1.67725, R1 1.6802, R2 1.68471, R3 1.69217, S1 1.67274, S2 1.66979, S3 1.66233

Support Levels: Minor 1.6720/30, Minor/Medium 1.6690/95, Very Minor 1.6680/85, Minor/Medium 1.6650/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6780/85, Very Minor 1.6815/20, 1.6830/35.

View: Data will dictate so we will leave, 1.6690 and 1.6780 look like the initial key levels to watch.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft (the ADX is low indicating low momentum), the 4H's are heavy (the Stochs are o/sold), the 1H's are mainly lifting.


USD/JPY Intraday: LISTLESS JPY CONTINUES TO DRIFT

Pivot: 102.381, R1 102.548, R2 102.742, R3 103.102, S1 102.187, S2 102.021, S3 101.66.

Support Levels: Very Minor 102.10/15, Extremely Minor 101.80/90, 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85, Extremely Minor 102.85/90.

View: The Usd/jpy is soft but lacks momentum, we think a lowering range is most likely in the next 24 hours. 102.10/102.45, 101.90/102.60 max.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft led by heavy Stochs (the ADX is low), the 4H's are drifting lower, the 1H's are also soft.



AUD/USD Intraday: EMPLOYMENT DATA IN FOCUS

Pivot: .9366, R1 .93908, R2 .94088, R3 .94516, S1 .9348, S2 .93232, S3 .92804.

Support Levels: Extremely Minor .9355/60, Very Minor .9330/35, .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9385/90, Minor .9395/00, .9405/10, Very Minor .9425/30, .9445/50, Minor/Medium .9460/65.

View: Data risk makes trading the Aussie tough, will move short stops to above .9430 and aim to trim risk prior to data. The tech's are strong. Longs could target a .9360/65 entry.

Technical Comment: The dailies are firming (the Stochs are o/bght, the ADX is rising), the 4H's are also firm (with a high ADX), the 1H's are firm also.



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MahiFX

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The Daily Score - 12 June 2014

A daily forex market summary from MahiFX
The Kiwi has been the largest mover of the majors after the RBNZ failed to signal a pause in the tightening cycle as many had expected. Immigration, house price inflation and above-trend growth continue to put pressure on the RBNZ to normalize interest rates (hike 25 bps to 3.25%, Nzd/usd +1.2% to .8656 highs). The Cable also put in a solid performance rallying to 1.6810 highs after the ILO employment report surpassed expectations. The U.K. economy created 345,000 jobs in the 3 months to April. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% from 6.8% (6.7 % exp.), its lowest level since Jan 2009. The Aussie rallied to highs around .9414 before selling off to ~ .9353 on a knee-jerk reaction to the 4,800 fall in May employment (+10,000 exp.), the fall was quickly reversed as the break-down revealed that full time positions rose by 22,200 (part-time jobs fell 27,000). The unemployment rate remained at 5.8% (on exp.). The Euro has continued to hold the 1.3520 level whilst the Usd/jpy found support under 101.90.

Pre-European Open, Technical Analysis

The commentary below represents our opinion on the state of the markets and our hypothetical trading strategies. This commentary is not a recommendation or advice. Please refer to the disclaimer below for further guidance. Please note that market volatility may have voided some scenarios.

EUR/USD Intraday: EUROZONE IP DATA DUE TODAY

Pivot: 1.35368, R1 1.35519, R2 1.35724, R3 1.3608, S1 1.35163, S2 1.35012, S3 1.34656 (All pivots are daily 5 pm NY).

Support Levels: Minor 1.3520/25, 1.3500/05, Minor/Medium 1.3470/80.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 1.3555/65, Minor 1.3580/85, Very Minor 1.3620/25, Medium 1.3670/80.

View: With 1.3520 holding another challenge at 1.3560 and 1.3580 is likely, but shorts are favoured in this area, stops above 1.3625.

Technical Comment: The dailies have changed little from yesterday (soft, with a high ADX), the 4H's are firming, the 1H's are rising.



GBP/USD Intraday: THE CABLE FIRMS ON POSITIVE EMPLOYMENT DATA

Pivot: 1.6779, R1 1.68199, R2 1.6852, R3 1.6925, S1 1.67469, S2 1.6706, S3 1.6633.

Support Levels: Very Minor 1.6765/70, Minor 1.6720/30, Minor/Medium 1.6690/95, Very Minor 1.6680/85, Minor/Medium 1.6650/60.

Resistance Levels: Minor 1.6815/20, Very Minor 1.6830/35, Minor 1.6845/50, 1.6880/85.

View: We favour longs with a target of 1.6880, stops under 1.6760, momentum is low so not a favoured trade, 1.6845/50 needs cleared first.

Technical Comment: The dailies are mixed and lack momentum (Stochs weak, MACD improving), the 4H's are also mixed, the 1H's add little.



USD/JPY Intraday: JPY STRENGTH WANES UNDER 101.90

Pivot: 102.111, R1 102.359, R2 102.642, R3 103.172, S1 101.828, S2 101.58, S3 101.049.

Support Levels: Very Minor 101.80/90, Extremely Minor 101.65/70, Very Minor 101.40/50.

Resistance Levels: Very Minor 102.05/15 (very close), Extremely Minor 102.40/45, Very Minor 102.65/70, Medium 102.75/85.

View: Its groundhog day for the Usd/jpy. The current momentum favours a move towards 102.40 but the market is lack-lustre. We pick 101.80/102.40 the next 24 hours.

Technical Comment: The dailies are soft but lack momentum, the 4H's are beginning to lift (esp. the Stochs/RSI), the 1H's are firm (although the Stochs/RSI have ticked lower).


AUD/USD Intraday: 94C TOPPED PRIOR TO MAY EMPLOYMENT, .9353 LOWS POST DATA

Pivot: .93849, R1 .94048, R2 .94259, R3 .94669, S1 .93638, S2 .93439, S3 .93029.

Support Levels: Very Minor .9350/60, .9330/35, .9310/20, Extremely Minor .9300/05, Minor .9285/90.

Resistance Levels: Minor/Medium .9405/15, Very Minor .9425/30, .9445/50, Minor/Medium .9460/65.

View: The Aussie has been whippy today, we favour more price action inside .9350/.9420 over the next 24 hours. The tech's are still bullish.

Technical Comment: The dailies are still firm (the Stochs are o/bght), the 4H's are deteriorating pointing to near-term consolidation, the 1H's are mixed but soft on balance.



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