Market Manipulation

Mycroft Algoman said:
Please research this yourself, it is startlingly clear we will by and large (85% of us) reach the same conclusion and act on it in those few seconds.

The size of the market is unimportant it is the depth that counts and controls the movement these days, depth is often termed 'load' by mathematicians and by front end loading our positions prior to breaking down we stand out like a sore thumb.

The markets are actually not that large once you take the Algos out of the action, at their recent peak they constituted 91% of all the money in the market (DJI, 15th August 2013) but depth is the marker.
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Given the same information and same circumstances, then it is plausible that a high % of people will reach a similar conclusion. In trading people don't have the same set of information, so the research doesn't apply, except possibly within small subsets. One may look at a chart. Another may look at a DOM window. Another has 20 indicators on his chart and another may have a stat model where he doesn't care about either. The point is they have different information and will reach different conclusions, or the same conclusions but at different times.
 
Shakone said:
Given the same information and same circumstances, then it is plausible that a high % of people will reach a similar conclusion. In trading people don't have the same set of information, so the research doesn't apply, except possibly within small subsets. One may look at a chart. Another may look at a DOM window. Another has 20 indicators on his chart and another may have a stat model where he doesn't care about either. The point is they have different information.
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So... your graphs and your ladder shows something fundamentally different to mine?

No matter what the style... it is the induction to it, the use of it, be it ladder, graph or any other if you have established the use and experienced the results the effect is the same!
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
I hope so!

You said you were finished but your paranoia will drag you back here, again and again.

Plus you DO have to keep an eye on me, because only you know the truth!!!
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As long as you keep dodging every question,
damn right I'll keep coming back:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-13.html#post2192640

No paranoia, why would I be paranoid about you.
You have all the hallmarks of a snake oil salesman,
thats why I keep coming back.
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
So... your graphs and your ladder shows something fundamentally different to mine?

No matter what the style... it is the induction to it, the use of it, be it ladder, graph or any other if you have established the use and experienced the results the effect is the same!
Click to expand...

It depends what you're looking at and how you define fundamentally. You're basing your point on some research that doesn't apply. It doesn't apply because not everyone sees the same things, they're not even looking at or for the same things. Some aren't even looking at all.

And even aside from the fact that people are getting different info on which to base their decisions, the situation is asymmetric. A trader who is short and in profit watching the market drop and into more profit, feels very different, and is likely to make different decisions than one who is leveraged up to his eyeballs, long and wrong and watching his account dwindle to nothing. Same price action, two humans having different reactions.

This is all well researched in behavioural finance and probably elsewhere.
 
Liquid validity said:
As long as you keep dodging every question,
damn right I'll keep coming back:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting-cfds/179332-market-manipulation-13.html#post2192640

No paranoia, why would I be paranoid about you.
You have all the hallmarks of a snake oil salesman,
thats why I keep coming back.
Click to expand...

I'm happy for you to be here, it keeps you out of trouble.

But you absented yourself, so it is a bit rich to now bluster and blow-hard about staying as if someone tried to make you go... we may have to wait for a lucid moment for you grasp that but we have time, the markets don't open for 6hrs...

There is only you here who can safeguard the site from snake-oil salesmen like me, they will make you a mod soon, all this dedication, it will pay off, they can't keep thwarting your ambition, it's just not fair!
 
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Shakone said:
It depends what you're looking at and how you define fundamentally. You're basing your point on some research that doesn't apply. It doesn't apply because not everyone sees the same things, they're not even looking at or for the same things. Some aren't even looking at all.

And even aside from the fact that people are getting different info on which to base their decisions, the situation is asymmetric. A trader who is short and in profit watching the market drop and into more profit, feels very different, and is likely to make different decisions than one who is leveraged up to his eyeballs, long and wrong and watching his account dwindle to nothing. Same price action, two humans having different reactions.

This is all well researched in behavioural finance and probably elsewhere.
Click to expand...

If you have experience of a system (graph/ladder etc) then we are looking at the same thing, but interfaced differently, but our conclusions will be still on the 85%ile conformed action group.

When already in deals there will be differences as you have stated, but that is not an issue, it is same price action, but not the same situation at all.

Totally different situations.
 
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Mycroft Algoman said:
If you have experience of a system (graph/ladder etc) then we are looking at the same thing, but interfaced differently, but our conclusions will be still on the 85%ile conformed action group.

When already in deals there will be differences as you have stated, but that is not an issue, it is same price action, but not the same situation at all.

Totally different situations.
Click to expand...

It is your assumption that people see the same thing and will take the same action within 2 seconds of eachother. You've provided no proof of any of this. You've vaguely referred to some research which doesn't apply for the reasons I've pointed out. Of course if it were true, we could see this regular effect on a 1 second chart across all instruments and observe the volume spikes and so on.

I know from experience that many don't see the same thing, and I've explained why. Many see what they want to see, even when the obvious is staring them in the face. Others delude themselves about evil forces out to get them and make it impossible for them. It's probably comforting for those that are losing to believe that they couldn't possibly have won, and it's not their fault. Those pesky algos and HFTs. Seeing what they want to see.


Anyway, welcome to the site Mycroft :cheesy:
 
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Mycroft Algoman said:
.............I feel like I've entered Kindergarten here, has no-one here had even a suspicion that might be what actually happens?..............
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..or maybe you've just walked out of the asylum into the real world :).

You still haven't answered my question of what are we poor souls to do about it as we seek to place our bets.

A few more:

You keep going on about artificial price movement. So define "artificial" for me - better still, define what is a "non-artificial" movement.

What is the evidence that 85% of us arrive at the same conclusion and act on it the same way within 2 seconds, particularly given that people use time frames varying from 1 minute (or less) to 1 day (or more)?

If algos are designed to "go exactly in the opposite direction" how have they got on in the current bull run - or have 85% of us been short for months? (mmm, maybe they have given the reported propensity for pounders to look for reversals).
 
It is not my assumption, we do all see the same thing, what is more pertinent is how we humans perform the same function of pattern recognition in startlingly similar ways.

We cannot help ourselves, from faces in clouds to portraits of the Virgin Mary on a round of toast we join the dots continually and we all do it to roughly the same degree, we are good at it because it aids survival and everyone here is the result of that success, read a book by a chap called Darwin, he explains it better.

They see the same thing but react differently is what I think you mean.

Yes, that is possible of course but it only really applies at one end of the spectrum, these are part of the 15% who 'point' the other way.
 
barjon said:
..or maybe you've just walked out of the asylum into the real world :).

You still haven't answered my question of what are we poor souls to do about it as we seek to place our bets.

A few more:

You keep going on about artificial price movement. So define "artificial" for me - better still, define what is a "non-artificial" movement.

What is the evidence that 85% of us arrive at the same conclusion and act on it within 2 seconds, particularly given that people use time frames varying from 1 minute (or less) to 1 day (or more)?

If algos are designed to "go exactly in the opposite direction" how have they got on in the current bull run - or have 85% of us been short for months? (mmm, maybe they have given the reported propensity for pounders to look for reversals).
Click to expand...

Nah... tommy-rot is as barking as a jack russel-in-a-box, 'mental' doesn't cover half of it.

There is no panacea for you I'm afraid to say, just the ever relevant 'Be careful'.

Good question, despite answering it previously...

The present drop on both the DJI and FTSE is engineered, it has been brought about to cull large sums ready for the lift to 16000 /6990 coming shortly.

(For the site paranoiac only... send me a Postal Order for 15 shillings and I'll give you the exact date, send your request to: Horace Batchelor, Dept 1, Keynsham, that's K_E_Y_N_S_H_A_M , Bristol, England.)

We did look at action and responses (using exact simulations based on real movement) in differing incremental settings, anything between 2 minutes and 10 were all the same after a period of acclimatisation to that time scale.

I can say that for me if I kept changing my time scale repeatedly I statistically improved my winning decisions by about 5% which is just cresting the numerical 'Ooooh, that's not within parameters' point. I wouldn't read too much into that though.

The road up has been strewn with dips and slumps (you did notice those, yes?)

The objective or Term is to reach 16000/6900 this year, the rise is to be achieved as economically as possible, so there are as few profiting from the rise as is possible, so drops and slumps are part of the mechanism to profit from a fairly steeply rising market.

Drops and slumps are 'culls' are ways of achieving that profit.
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
It is not my assumption, we do all see the same thing, what is more pertinent is how we humans perform the same function of pattern recognition in startlingly similar ways.

We cannot help ourselves, from faces in clouds to portraits of the Virgin Mary on a round of toast we join the dots continually and we all do it to roughly the same degree, we are good at it because it aids survival and everyone here is the result of that success, read a book by a chap called Darwin, he explains it better.

They see the same thing but react differently is what I think you mean.

Yes, that is possible of course but it only really applies at one end of the spectrum, these are part of the 15% who 'point' the other way.
Click to expand...

A statement that is taken as true but with no proof provided is an assumption. You have given no proof.

We do not all see the same thing.

We do not all interpret what we see in the same manner.

We do not all react the same way.
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
If by flat you mean 50-50 either way, then you are wrong, every scrap of research on pattern recognition in humans shows that we hold to the 85%-15% very closely indeed.
Click to expand...

Do the 85% all open positions in the same direction at the same time, with exactly the same stops and limits? If so, the SB's plug-in profit maximiser will just reject the trades, so what happens then?

Your first post seemed intriguing and a good starting point for one of T2W's futile arguments, but you seem to have turned into David Icke.
 
Mycroft Algoman said:
Nah... tommy-rot is as barking as a jack russel-in-a-box, 'mental' doesn't cover half of it.

There is no panacea for you I'm afraid to say, just the ever relevant 'Be careful'.

Good question, despite answering it previously...

The present drop on both the DJI and FTSE is engineered, it has been brought about to cull large sums ready for the lift to 16000 /6990 coming shortly.

(For the site paranoiac only... send me a Postal Order for 15 shillings and I'll give you the exact date, send your request to: Horace Batchelor, Dept 1, Keynsham, that's K_E_Y_N_S_H_A_M , Bristol, England.)

We did look at action and responses (using exact simulations based on real movement) in differing incremental settings, anything between 2 minutes and 10 were all the same after a period of acclimatisation to that time scale.

I can say that for me if I kept changing my time scale repeatedly I statistically improved my winning decisions by about 5% which is just cresting the numerical 'Ooooh, that's not within parameters' point. I wouldn't read too much into that though.

The road up has been strewn with dips and slumps (you did notice those, yes?)

The objective or Term is to reach 16000/6900 this year, the rise is to be achieved as economically as possible, so there are as few profiting from the rise as is possible, so drops and slumps are part of the mechanism to profit from a fairly steeply rising market.

Drops and slumps are 'culls' are ways of achieving that profit.
Click to expand...

Aye, bit of a daft question the algo one :LOL:, but I've got the answer --------we'll all go Spanish and trade without stops.
 
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