Market Manipulation

Mycroft Algoman

Active member
159 2
I have just joined...

I spreadbet...

The main reason for failure is that the index (whichever one you chose) is mediated by Integrated Algorithms and your 'bet' is an axis about which the minnows of the numerous Algo generated bets can use to gain income.

No matter how well you forecast the prevailing sentiment, your own placement distorts what was right at the time you made your decision.

The reason is very simple...

Say you place a £1 bet on the NYSE and go long (buy) and do so for good reason, you will be right, but what you are seeing is the swarm of micro-bets moving the market and it is pure chance that you coincide with the swarms movement.

The average 'bet' in this swarm of tens of thousands/millions is $2,500 gross...

Your £1 bet represents about $25,000 and is a target, it is as if a damned great white swan suddenly appeared in a murmuration of Starlings.

You stand out like a sore thumb and the algorithms that control the swarm of small bets use your 'position' to deflect and turn to make the most of this huge intrusion.

The Algorithm at its heart is not too far removed from the algo that controls the 'Angry Birds' (a strange, but fascinating irony!) motions.

So there is no need to feel defeated that you are in some way 'a failure' if you don't win, you simply are not meant to.

But Algos can be backed into a corner, it's just very difficult.

Other tricks of the 'Industry'...

First, don't be fooled into believing that all flash price jumps are 'accidental', they are not and are often used to produce a 'result' against you if you do place the Algos and Quants in an awkward position.

Quants (if you don't know what they are) are two types of individual (Humans!!!) first they are the guys that write the Algo-progs, basically NERDS... the other are the less autistic chaps who can communicate effectively with rest of the world and these chaps tinker with the Algo-progs to make them 'feel' right (it is this tinkering that effectively constitutes your only chance to win or to be a 'winner'!)

It is these latter 'Quants' that will without the slightest feeling of shame flash down a price (or up) if one of the 'Industry' names requests it.

This happens regularly, at least once a day in the main indices, sometimes 3 or 4...

This behaviour does however leave 'tell-tales' across the net... more on those later.

No-one in the 'Industry' is immune to doing this, the entire edifice is based on the requirement of 'Plausible Deniability' and those that speak or voice the 'Mission Statements' are kept out of the picture as much as possible.

Enough for now... I might get 'banned' for telling the unpalatable truth about this 'Industry' but you do have the right to know.

Have lovely weekends!
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
I have just joined...

I spreadbet...

The main reason for failure is that the index (whichever one you chose) is mediated by Integrated Algorithms and your 'bet' is an axis about which the minnows of the numerous Algo generated bets can use to gain income.

No matter how well you forecast the prevailing sentiment, your own placement distorts what was right at the time you made your decision.

The reason is very simple...

Say you place a £1 bet on the NYSE and go long (buy) and do so for good reason, you will be right, but what you are seeing is the swarm of micro-bets moving the market and it is pure chance that you coincide with the swarms movement.

The average 'bet' in this swarm of tens of thousands/millions is $2,500 gross...

Your £1 bet represents about $25,000 and is a target, it is as if a damned great white swan suddenly appeared in a murmuration of Starlings.

You stand out like a sore thumb and the algorithms that control the swarm of small bets use your 'position' to deflect and turn to make the most of this huge intrusion.

The Algorithm at its heart is not too far removed from the algo that controls the 'Angry Birds' (a strange, but fascinating irony!) motions.

So there is no need to feel defeated that you are in some way 'a failure' if you don't win, you simply are not meant to.

But Algos can be backed into a corner, it's just very difficult.

Other tricks of the 'Industry'...

First, don't be fooled into believing that all flash price jumps are 'accidental', they are not and are often used to produce a 'result' against you if you do place the Algos and Quants in an awkward position.

Quants (if you don't know what they are) are two types of individual (Humans!!!) first they are the guys that write the Algo-progs, basically NERDS... the other are the less autistic chaps who can communicate effectively with rest of the world and these chaps tinker with the Algo-progs to make them 'feel' right (it is this tinkering that effectively constitutes your only chance to win or to be a 'winner'!)

It is these latter 'Quants' that will without the slightest feeling of shame flash down a price (or up) if one of the 'Industry' names requests it.

This happens regularly, at least once a day in the main indices, sometimes 3 or 4...

This behaviour does however leave 'tell-tales' across the net... more on those later.

No-one in the 'Industry' is immune to doing this, the entire edifice is based on the requirement of 'Plausible Deniability' and those that speak or voice the 'Mission Statements' are kept out of the picture as much as possible.

Enough for now... I might get 'banned' for telling the unpalatable truth about this 'Industry' but you do have the right to know.

Have lovely weekends!

I disagree and this is why:

For some. For others it's more like, snakes and ladders.
 
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Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
It seems that you're suggesting the market moves because of a £1 bet.

The market doesn't care about such things.

If it did, hedge funds would go around placing £1 bets so that the market moved how they wanted.

The market does not care about you. Unless you're trading in huge size you're irrelevant.

There is luck, and there is randomness, but this is not a game of pure chance.
 

Mycroft Algoman

Active member
159 2
No intellect is ever going to overcome Algos and Quants.

The only conclusive way to win is by acting in unison after placing a judas goat in the market to take the hit and then divvying up the proceeds, that works very well indeed.

As individuals it is 'hit and miss' and pure luck in its most raw state.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
No intellect is ever going to overcome Algos and Quants.

The only conclusive way to win is by acting in unison after placing a judas goat in the market to take the hit and then divvying up the proceeds, that works very well indeed.

As individuals it is 'hit and miss' and pure luck in its most raw state.

Wrong!
 

Mycroft Algoman

Active member
159 2
It seems that you're suggesting the market moves because of a £1 bet.

The market doesn't care about such things.

If it did, hedge funds would go around placing £1 bets so that the market moved how they wanted.

The market does not care about you. Unless you're trading in huge size you're irrelevant.

There is luck, and there is randomness, but this is not a game of pure chance.

No I'm suggesting that, but all such bets are way-points.

No Hedge Fund would join this fray as the numbers don't compute for them...

But the real test is if you take the number of trades in any given day and the amount traded and find the resulting figure, the amount might surprise you, the average is less than $8000 and that includes the thousands of bets placed by people who cannot place less than £1 or £2 at any one time (25 and 50 thousand dollars)...

Another 'test' is to look at the drops or rises in prices during the day... this has been largely aligned now across the 'Industry' to coincide with the now almost universal default of 0.2% by narrowing this down for the majority the range of the take is narrowed to 0.25% so making the reaping of funds easier.

You can also see the grouping of these 'big dollar' singletons and them being culled en masse.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
No I'm suggesting that, but all such bets are way-points.

No Hedge Fund would join this fray as the numbers don't compute for them...

But the real test is if you take the number of trades in any given day and the amount traded and find the resulting figure, the amount might surprise you, the average is less than $8000 and that includes the thousands of bets placed by people who cannot place less than £1 or £2 at any one time (25 and 50 thousand dollars)...

Another 'test' is to look at the drops or rises in prices during the day... this has been largely aligned now across the 'Industry' to coincide with the now almost universal default of 0.2% by narrowing this down for the majority the range of the take is narrowed to 0.25% so making the reaping of funds easier.

You can also see the grouping of these 'big dollar' singletons and them being culled en masse.

Pointless to explain. You're obviously on a windup and haven't a clue what you're talking about.
 

Mycroft Algoman

Active member
159 2
Right, as we are on a roll...

Lets talk 'Dark Pools'...

Their real use is to safeguard many of the Hedge Funds from being in the Public Marketplace.

To avoid being swayed about by the gambling content of the DJI in particular and the FTSE less so.

Effectively deals are done between buyers and sellers of Publicly listed businesses behind closed doors and these deals (often done a month or so ahead of actual movement) dictate the overall movement of the market, not the day to day but the term destination.

It is as if I asked you to go to your nearest church, you might go via the fields and jump ditches or you might take the path and you might go via the Pub... but you will get there and that is what counts... and that is what happens.
 

Mycroft Algoman

Active member
159 2
Pointless to explain. You're obviously on a windup and haven't a clue what you're talking about.

Not even vaguely aimed at 'winding up' anyone.

If you don't to explain then fair enough, I would have liked to have heard/read your thinking on this as you seem as 'positive' as I am but in the polar opposite camp.

Thanks anyway.(y)
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
Not even vaguely aimed at 'winding up' anyone.

If you don't to explain then fair enough, I would have liked to have heard/read your thinking on this as you seem as 'positive' as I am but in the polar opposite camp.

Thanks anyway.(y)

Ok. Prove that a £1 bet moves the market significantly.

Prove that the total sum of all bets on the market ina day is $8000.

Prove that no intellect can ever overcome an algo (or at least provide some evidence)

Prove that no intellect can ever overcome a quant in the field of trading (or at least provide some evidence)

Prove that this trading lark is all pure luck in its most raw state.

If you can back these statements up, I'll be willing to reply again.
 

Mycroft Algoman

Active member
159 2
Ok. Prove that a £1 bet moves the market significantly.

Prove that the total sum of all bets on the market ina day is $8000.

Prove that no intellect can ever overcome an algo (or at least provide some evidence)

Prove that no intellect can ever overcome a quant in the field of trading (or at least provide some evidence)

Prove that this trading lark is all pure luck in its most raw state.

If you can back these statements up, I'll be willing to reply again.

OK, I'll do my best...

The £1 bet... we all believe we act individually, but the reality is that as a group those attracted to this form of speculation will be surprisingly similar in their viewpoint on the market indicators, we will all 'recognise' the same cues.

So although you may think that you alone placed that £1 bet at that particular time, you didn't, within a few seconds the same 'indicators' that lead you to take a position lead many others to the same conclusion.

It is the 'job' of these algorithms to collate and assess the best way to go to make the best profit for their 'masters'.

Your good judgement plays no part at all in that decision, because the reality is that when tested most people draw the same conclusion and this correlates almost exactly with the 85% I mentioned earlier.

Any study of Human Decision Making will confirm this exactly.

It is why we have such a thing as the 85%ile as a norm form decisions... we're good at it.

You can obtain the figures yourself every day, the raw info is all over the net.

A single intellect cannot overcome the influence of an Algorithm, because it is not an intellectual entity, it is a mathematical equation and immutable. A quant might tinker at the edges but that is really to just keep the swarm from turning in on itself and going down. (they all err on the side of the negative)

Your reluctance to outline your position is mystifying to me but you must have your reasons so feel free to ignore me if you wish.(y)
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
OK, I'll do my best...

The £1 bet... we all believe we act individually, but the reality is that as a group those attracted to this form of speculation will be surprisingly similar in their viewpoint on the market indicators, we will all 'recognise' the same cues.

So although you may think that you alone placed that £1 bet at that particular time, you didn't, within a few seconds the same 'indicators' that lead you to take a position lead many others to the same conclusion.

It is the 'job' of these algorithms to collate and assess the best way to go to make the best profit for their 'masters'.

Your good judgement plays no part at all in that decision, because the reality is that when tested most people draw the same conclusion and this correlates almost exactly with the 85% I mentioned earlier.

Any study of Human Decision Making will confirm this exactly.

It is why we have such a thing as the 85%ile as a norm form decisions... we're good at it.

You can obtain the figures yourself every day, the raw info is all over the net.

A single intellect cannot overcome the influence of an Algorithm, because it is not an intellectual entity, it is a mathematical equation and immutable. A quant might tinker at the edges but that is really to just keep the swarm from turning in on itself and going down. (they all err on the side of the negative)

Your reluctance to outline your position is mystifying to me but you must have your reasons so feel free to ignore me if you wish.(y)

No reluctance. My position is clear. It is that you're wrong, and don't know what you're writing about.

Your best is to not prove a single one of your statements or even provide any concrete evidence. That's you doing your best.

This is my favourite of your posts

The reality (sadly due to algorithmic interference) is that on average you will lose 85% of time and in volatile times closer to 95% no matter which way you go.

We have tested this with live sums on live accounts. AT ALMOST ALL TIMES OF DAY!

The best time to get perhaps a 75 to 80% chance is in that period between 15.15 and 16.00 UK Time.

This is the reality.
 

Mycroft Algoman

Active member
159 2
Your favourite is a good one.

You will be wrong in that degree because that is how Human decision making works...

We are actually quite good at making the 'right' decision, so if 100 people are given a set of identical parameters in a subject they have an aptitude in then 85 of them will go in one direction and that is the exact opposite direction that means a profit for the provider of this 'service'...

The further reality is that a substantial but varying percentage of the 'price' of any indices or exchange price is froth and bubble.

You can see this in particular today/yesterday... just take the graphs for the last 5 days for the DJI and the Nasdaq... notice the DJI has been overtly volitile and has 'lost' much of the gain engendered by Bernankes 'no tapering' announcement... yet the less speculative Nasdaq has largely held the gains and going back a few days further, the Nasdaq dropped in response to proper figures, but the DJI just maintained the 'high'...

The reality is that today's drop is not 'real' in the sense that it is simply the removal of some of the 'froth and bubble' on the surface and today has simply been about taking a huge amount from placements made just after the sharp rise.

The Nasdaq has less Froth and more beer than the fizzy sasperilla that is the DJI.
 
 
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