Market Direction

[rglenn]

Good morning all!

I think we should have a daily markets direction thread- preferably managed by chartman looking at his various charts to forecast the direction of the day.

I also think everyone should chip in using their own skill and judgement and we will see if this method gives us a strong guidance to the days action.

Any suggestions welcome.

I will kick the ball of by saying the markets will be up today after a weak start.

Dax up by approx 40pts

FTSE up by 60pts

Dow up by 90pts

 

[Bigbusiness]

Good idea,

Hard to call today, after a long weekend, but I am looking for a 50 point fall on the Dow at some point in the day. Don't know what it will do after that. The first trading day of the week is quite often a big move but I prefer to wait and see.

 

[JonnyT]

Why not wait till the market tells you rather than doing a mystic meg?

JonnyT

 

[rglenn]

JonnyT

This is not for trading purposes so Mystic Meg won't be included.

It would be sheer folly to trade the markets before they open as most of the time it will go in the opposite direction to what you think.

It is just a bit of fun and may help in the long run after the markets open.

 

[oatman]

I just tried to contact Mystic Meg but she's unavailable.....due to unforeseen circumstances

 

[rglenn]

Oatman

Sorry you couldn't reach her- but it's because she is working with me today because I need to see things more clearly! lol

 

[Trader333]

Rglenn,

You said

It would be sheer folly to trade the markets before they open as most of the time it will go in the opposite direction to what you think.

In which case why not place a trade in the opposite direction to the way you think it will go ? On pure percentage terms you would be right more often than wrong.


Paul

 

[rglenn]

Great idea Trader333

Don't forget the market usually goes the opposite direction after you place your trade though.

 

[Bigbusiness]

A lot of the time I find trying to predict the next day is a waste of time but I use the chart from the previous day to give me an idea of what might happen today. Some days I don't have a clue but there are some days when there seems to be a high probability of at least a 50 point rise or fall after the previous days action.

For example, in the past year, if the dow gaps up at the open, trends higher and dosen't fill the gap during the day, there seems to be a good chance of a 50 point fall at some time during the next day. This is handy to know if I am thinking of going long the next day.

I also use a longer term chart for support/resistance and to see if the index is oversold/overbought.

It is strange how there are no websites with free historical intra-day charts of the dow. I find them much more useful than candlestick charts or any other type of OHLC chart.

 

[rglenn]

Nice observation Bigbusiness

I will keep an eye out for that because I usually trade the dow in the afternoon.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Well done with your earlier prediction rglenn. Looks like you don't need Mystic Meg.

 

[rglenn]

Thanks for that BigBusiness but it was nothing more than an educated guess- Just a little fun.

I will be putting up my forecast later this evening for tomorrow.

Lets have a bit of fun while we are trading!

 

[Bigbusiness]

I will be looking for the Dow to go in to negative territory tomorrow. My target will be 50 points down from tonight's close.

If it opens strong tomorrow, I will be looking for a good short opportunity.

I will only place a small bet overnight with finspreads, as this strength might continue in to the open tomorrow.

There is the possibility that this move will continue for a second day, so I will only trade if I think it is worth the risk.

 

[rglenn]

Market Direction 28/05/03

Ok everyone it is time for a bit of fun for all you fun lovers out there!

Before I make my prediction for tomorrow through some careful observations of the markets-

let me stipulate that none of these details are to be used to trade the markets-always wait until market open before you trade along with your personal preferences etc.

What's the point of all this then?

If 100 people were to use their personal observations, charts etc and predict that the market is going to be down tomorrow and your own personal analysis states the same thing - during your trading for that day wouldn't it give you that extra bit of confidence. I am sure it would.

Anyway here it is:

The Dax will be trying to catch up tomorrow from where the dow left off. -Therefore up by around 80pts


The Ftse will also be doing the same and as it is moving moving more strongly than the Dax it will be up by around 95pts

The Dow though is at the top of the Stochastic range - (last 40 days) Therefore may go up by about 40 to 50 points before dropping to 70 to 80 pts.

 

[rglenn]

Come on everyone - wakey! wakey!

Lets get this show on the road

 

[Wideboy]

Ok then.
After yesterdays gains I would expect a follow through at the open and then a possible slight pullback.
So hazarding a guess at both FTSE and DOW ending the day negative.
Wideboy

 

[Bigbusiness]

Closed my small overnight short for a small profit. Will wait to see if there is a continuation of yesterdays rise before considering going short again. I think the Dow will trade in negative territory some time today but I can't predict when.

 

[rglenn]

Bigbusiness I have noticed that you have become senior since yesterday.

I hope you can teach us a thing or two!

 

[Bigbusiness]

Being a senior member just means I have written a load of nonsense 100 times! Make that 101

 

[rglenn]

It doesn't appear that there is many people that want a bit of fun-

Just want to make money!

Oh well!!