Marc Rivalland - Swing Trading

[vocalist]

Hi there Kensitp.

We have a low formed on the 8th at 10525 so on Marc's reckoning we should be long on breach of a previous day's high.In this case yesterdays high was 10606 so buy on breach at ,wait for it,lol,10607.

The low on the 8th doesnt become an official swing low unless it holds for a further 3 days then short on breach.Until then look to buy on break of the high.Ash

 

[vocalist]

Ok,so if anyone has any thoughts on this.As you can see the Nasdaq is having a hard time making a profit in the last couple of trades where you would have lost the last couple of entries.

The 2 arrows together point towards the days of entry on breach of the previous days high which sadly were losing trades.The last horizontal line signifies that if todays range stays the same then it would be a short on breach of the line.The line at the bottom of the page is the current swing low so technically if the Nasdaq fails to hold for 3 days we could be buying into this market on every breach day until we get right down to 1484, although is highly unlikely it is quite a scary possibilty.

The SPX had a losing trade as one can see by the first arrow and then was a short 4 days ago on breach of swing low after holding its low for 3 days.

Any comments?? Ash

 

[jdbzero]

Ok,so if anyone has any thoughts on this.As you can see the Nasdaq is having a hard time making a profit in the last couple of trades where you would have lost the last couple of entries.

The 2 arrows together point towards the days of entry on breach of the previous days high which sadly were losing trades.The last horizontal line signifies that if todays range stays the same then it would be a short on breach of the line.The line at the bottom of the page is the current swing low so technically if the Nasdaq fails to hold for 3 days we could be buying into this market on every breach day until we get right down to 1484, although is highly unlikely it is quite a scary possibilty.

The SPX had a losing trade as one can see by the first arrow and then was a short 4 days ago on breach of swing low after holding its low for 3 days.

Any comments?? Ash

My understanding is that as the Nasdaq has spent over 10 days below its previous high we can (fairly) safely assume this is not making a swing low. Too many days to be part of a correction. This would be treated as a possible change of trend in the making, especially if we cross check it with the S&P and the DOW.

First post, be gentle

 

[vocalist]

My understanding is that as the Nasdaq has spent over 10 days below its previous high we can (fairly) safely assume this is not making a swing low. Too many days to be part of a correction. This would be treated as a possible change of trend in the making, especially if we cross check it with the S&P and the DOW.

First post, be gentle

Hi there JDBZERO,welcome aboard.

A Marc Rivalland swing low would be defined as a counter rally against the trend of at least 3 or more days.The lowest point of those 3 days would then have to hold for a further 3 days,then you have a new swing low.In this case,the low of 1572.4 formed on the 16th August has now held for at least 3 days and now is a sell on breach.

A 10 day hold below a previous high isn't included in MR's rules,just the 3 day rule as mentioned above.

I do agree with you about cross checking the other indices and they are very definately down and so is Intel which has broken down big time.As of monday the Nasdaq would indeed be an upcoming short entry on breach of 1572.Ash

 

[jdbzero]

Back to school ...

Hi there JDBZERO,welcome aboard.

A Marc Rivalland swing low would be defined as a counter rally against the trend of at least 3 or more days.The lowest point of those 3 days would then have to hold for a further 3 days,then you have a new swing low.In this case,the low of 1572.4 formed on the 16th August has now held for at least 3 days and now is a sell on breach.

A 10 day hold below a previous high isn't included in MR's rules,just the 3 day rule as mentioned above.

I do agree with you about cross checking the other indices and they are very definately down and so is Intel which has broken down big time.As of monday the Nasdaq would indeed be an upcoming short entry on breach of 1572.Ash

Hi Vocalist
I completely agree with your comments.
I was sure that there was something in MR's book about how much time we should reasonably allow in the formation of a swing low. However, in hindsight I guess I've probably misinterpreted one of his examples for HSBC. Will have to reread that bit. MR has updated his website on Saturday and it certainly doesn't mention anything about what I said.

 

[Nirmala]

Have you tried it intraday on the indices? If so what time periods did you use and what indices?

 

[tomorton]

I don't see any reason why you couldn't do this intra-day, signal should be no worse than any other intra-day TA.

I don't do intra-day but I can see two inherent problems:
- the difference in behaviour of market participants in an intra-day period that will be followed by just more trading is different to that of participants looking towards a closed period, overnight or over the weekend
- bid/offer spread might make the intra-day trade just uneconomical, insufficient return.

But maybe somebody has tried this?.....