Making Money Trading

[jonj]

hi yawl,hope tradin is good tday.heres a chart of slv hourly tf,would be interested to here anybodys thoughts on the double bottom/tweezers/double pin????(anyyone know what to call it even id be obliged!)made me a few pips on my demo though.it times nicly with the stochs/rsi(9) divergence

 

[jonj]

heres what looks like a good pin the usd/jpy hourly.although its not been triggered yet.

 

[trader_dante]

What an excellent day for trading.

There were some incredible opportunities today.

Crude Oil was very profitable, providing 242 ticks (so far) for a risk of only 54 + spread. A risk:reward of 1:4.48 (chart 1) This, I should add, is a far, far safer way to get short at a top rather than selling on the way up. Wait for it to break and then sell the first rally. You will almost always get a good chance to get on board.

Silver (see chart 2) was an excellent example of how you should get back in a market even if it's just burnt you. The pin bar on the daily chart cost a trader 49 ticks + spread when it failed. There was a chance today to make half of that back (25 ticks) and even if you didn't exit, is still currently +12.

Usd/Jpy was a beautiful trade. The pin bar came up at the 50 fib of the previous hourly swing low and occured at s/r pivot zone. (see chart 3) Risk was 18 + spread and reward was 58 presuming you exited on the break of the huge hourly pin indicating a move back down.

Eur/Cad was another great pin bar off a good solid support on the daily chart. (see chart 4) Risk was 57 and this trade is currently +42 so almost a 1:1 and still running.

 

[mp6140]

What an excellent day for trading.

There were some incredible opportunities today.
===================================================

TOTAL UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE WEEK !!!!!

LOL

watch for the fed in a bit --- did you watch prior price action which pointed to EXACTLY what was gonna happen ???

loves it when a plan comes together

enjoy and keep trading well

mp

 

[mp6140]

What an excellent day for trading.

There were some incredible opportunities today.
===================================================

TOTAL UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE WEEK !!!!!

LOL

watch for the fed in a bit --- did you watch prior price action which pointed to EXACTLY what was gonna happen ???

loves it when a plan comes together

fast look says throw a LRC on EURCAD and check the high

enjoy and keep trading well

mp

 

[omni]

GENERAL FEEDBACK WANTED.........

TD has been teaching for some time now.
How are people getting on?
We know TD is getting on well... (see above!)
But how is everyone else doing?
Are you up? Down? Flat?

To encourage everyone...... I am.......>>
Up on indices.
Up on major fx pairs.
Down on minor fx pairs.
Up on commods.

How about you?

 

[TheTick]

What an excellent day for trading.

There were some incredible opportunities today.

Crude Oil was very profitable, providing 242 ticks (so far) for a risk of only 54 + spread. A risk:reward of 1:4.48 (chart 1) This, I should add, is a far, far safer way to get short at a top rather than selling on the way up. Wait for it to break and then sell the first rally. You will almost always get a good chance to get on board.

Silver (see chart 2) was an excellent example of how you should get back in a market even if it's just burnt you. The pin bar on the daily chart cost a trader 49 ticks + spread when it failed. There was a chance today to make half of that back (25 ticks) and even if you didn't exit, is still currently +12.

Usd/Jpy was a beautiful trade. The pin bar came up at the 50 fib of the previous hourly swing low and occured at s/r pivot zone. (see chart 3) Risk was 18 + spread and reward was 58 presuming you exited on the break of the huge hourly pin indicating a move back down.

Eur/Cad was another great pin bar off a good solid support on the daily chart. (see chart 4) Risk was 57 and this trade is currently +42 so almost a 1:1 and still running.

Thanks again for an insightful post. Unfortunately I am unable to trade oil or currencies, but did spot the crude and the USD/JPY pins and paper traded them.

You could also add the ones I did take - EuroStoxx and Ftse future. Can't seem to post charts up at the minute, but they occurred at 11 am and I have banked some profit from each and still have a portion of each running.

An excellent day for trading all round!

 

[spacetrip]

did you watch prior price action which pointed to EXACTLY what was gonna happen ???
mp

How much time before announcment are you taking in consideration?

At USDJPY was your strategy working perfectly.
But I am confused how to explain movement of S&P. Few hours before announcment it was moving down. Then two hours berofe it turned up. And then one hour before again down. So do you take in consideration movement only one hour before, or more hours before or...?

 

[mp6140]

How much time before announcment are you taking in consideration?

At USDJPY was your strategy working perfectly.
But I am confused how to explain movement of S&P. Few hours before announcment it was moving down. Then two hours berofe it turned up. And then one hour before again down. So do you take in consideration movement only one hour before, or more hours before or...?

==============================================================

while the s+peas has some worth in an individual trading situation, the financial world watches the DOW --- please check out its daily moves yesterday and today (naturally)

LIKE CLOCKWORK !!!!!!!!!

enclosed chart (DO NOT TELL ME ABOUT TOO MANY LINES !!!!) shows last nites decline leading right into todays rally !!!!!

ALMOST everything did that last nite, and waking this morning and waiting a few minutes has assisted in my post writing today --- as i dont have to trade a thing for the next week !

LOVES IT WHEN A PLAN COMES TOGETHER !!!

while known throughout the civilized world as a modest and gentle man, sharing my meeger knowledge with the weedhoppers of the world, on this particular day, YOU MAY KISS THE RING

 

[1Pipped]

heres what looks like a good pin the usd/jpy hourly.although its not been triggered yet.

I had a deal on that pin as well jonj, I just closed mine as it hit 61.8% retrace of the up move and top of the 4hr pin a few (4hr) bars ago. I hope your is doing or has done good as well !

 

[trader_dante]

Who was it that posted on here a while back about getting only 50% accuracy on these pin bars? I honestly cannot believe that...Omni, it is a good question: what is everyone elses experience of this strategy? Does anyone have a statistically viable number of trades to say what their win/loss ratio, size of win is compared to size of loss (in number of ticks) etc is?

 

[1Pipped]

TD, my stats are about 70/30, and average profit (in £ not pips) is more than average loss. BUT I do not have enough trades to trust those numbers yet.

The higher the win rate actually is (not what it appears to be, ie: in this case it appears to be 70%), the less trades needed to be confident the win/loss ratio is 'right'. The problem is we dont really know what the win rate is, thats what we are trying to find out, so we dont know how many trades is enough to have confidence in!

There is a method to use for this type of stats. discovering, but Ive forgotten its name, Ill post it later so people can look into it if they want. I was planning on looking at it myself but havent got round to it yet.

By the way that oil trade looked very nice indeed

EDIT:
Its called Beyes Theorem, heres a link to a thread I posted on 2+2 last year, the second to last post on the thread is the one with the description if anyones interested in this type of thing. It looks a bit complicated and will need a bit of the old calculus to chop through it !!
confidence limits... or something... - Two Plus Two Forums

 

[superspurs]

hi all,here is one that didn,t get a mention yesterday,still running
trade was closed @161.55 net 81

 

[jonj]

I had a deal on that pin as well jonj, I just closed mine as it hit 61.8% retrace of the up move and top of the 4hr pin a few (4hr) bars ago. I hope your is doing or has done good as well !

hi there 1pipped,it turned out to be a good trade,i had to close my position for a small profit on my demo cos it was gettin late and my girlfriend was gettin impatient!!havin said that that spike scared me a little.can you believe i closed the trade on the bar before!
currently short with a few pips in profit,gonna close it as soon as the stochs have dropped.looked more volatile when i entered.

 

[jonj]

Who was it that posted on here a while back about getting only 50% accuracy on these pin bars? I honestly cannot believe that...Omni, it is a good question: what is everyone elses experience of this strategy? Does anyone have a statistically viable number of trades to say what their win/loss ratio, size of win is compared to size of loss (in number of ticks) etc is?

hi TD,my personal experience has been v.positive with the pinbars,when i catch them at the right TIME and PLACE they do very well.the problem for me has been more the managment of the trades than identifying the good setups,its so true that one person trading the same move can make a profit while the next can make a loss

 

[MrGecko]

cos it was gettin late and my girlfriend was gettin impatient!!

Jonj, Have you looked at "head and shoulders" patterns?

 

[jonj]

Jonj, Have you looked at "head and shoulders" patterns?

yeah a little,i traded one tday on the eur/gbp.weather it was legit im not sure but it looked clearcut to me.let me know what you think.

 

[MrGecko]

yeah a little,i traded one tday on the eur/gbp.weather it was legit im not sure but it looked clearcut to me.let me know what you think.

I don't trade them much so don't know the particulars; the reason I mentioned it that your Dollar/Yen chart looks to be at a peak of the 2nd shoulder, and if the pattern holds and we see a break south (like your EUR/GBP chart) you would be sitting on a good entry for a good trade; why look to close so early?

 

[jonj]

I don't trade them much so don't know the particulars; the reason I mentioned it that your Dollar/Yen chart looks to be at a peak of the 2nd shoulder, and if the pattern holds and we see a break south (like your EUR/GBP chart) you would be sitting on a good entry for a good trade; why look to close so early?

i can see the pattern forming also but dont see it breakin tday,well worth keeping an eye on though,i like to keep my trades(demos )intraday and as short as poss.the reason im gonna get out soon is just that it never moved the way i hoped and there is no momentum or direction at the moment and so will take a little profit for now(i hope) till next time.
happy hunting

 

[grimweasel]

Good looking pin bar formed on DJI Daily. Wide stop needed of some 200 pips though. Wait for the open. Would one wait for the day bar to close and confirm the pin?
I suppose the market may take the view that there is no where else for the fed to go now really? Could see falls today? We shall wait and see?