Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

nice looking pin
kisses the 150 EMA which lines up with a decent price pivot AND the 50% fib from the aug16th low

thats fair amount of confluence

problem areas 17.46 and 18.73

What an excellent find.

Your technical analysis is spot on.

Also consider the problem areas provided by the 61 fib and previous support at approx 19.40 and then of course the all time high at 21.35.

 

[mp6140]

What an excellent find.

Your technical analysis is spot on.

Also consider the problem areas provided by the 61 fib and previous support at approx 19.40 and then of course the all time high at 21.35.

===========================================================

lets see here -- dbl bttm, excellent "pin bar" (ok TD -- i give in !), heavy support, 50% fib
and a partridge in a pear tree.

LOL

mp

 

[jinbal]

What an excellent find.

Your technical analysis is spot on.

Also consider the problem areas provided by the 61 fib and previous support at approx 19.40 and then of course the all time high at 21.35.

Thanks mate

I'm fairly new to TA/trading (since last summer), luckily I found this thread fairly quickly and the j16 thread and haven't really looked back since.

I recently (last few weeks) joined J16 group and started concentrating on a few major FX pairs and some commodities, previously I was looking exclusively for pins on FTSE 350 (wrote a scanner for it using sharescope) with mediocre results as I was trying to follow waay too many securities and spreading myself too thinly.

Since breaking it down and concentrating on a few markets that I could "get to know" and applying other Price Action from J16 - I've turned a massive corner I feel much more confident.

I've looked at a lots of indicators and indicator based systems but it seems to me that all roads lead back to Price Action with S/R and fibs- what more could a trader need?

There's nothing like watching Price react - to the pip - to level that I plotted in weeks ago! It's almost too easy it seems

anyway enough rambling - I hope to contribute more to this thread as I get better at PA.

keep up the good work everyone.

Jin

 

[mp6140]

MP -- ah, the completeness of life !

Thanks mate

I've turned a massive corner I feel much more confident.

I've looked at a lots of indicators and indicator based systems but it seems to me that all roads lead back to Price Action with S/R and fibs- what more could a trader need?

There's nothing like watching Price react - to the pip - to level that I plotted in weeks ago! It's almost too easy it seems

Those massive corners are of great cheer once disposed of --- thru my lifetime, ive met more than my share of massive corners, and still bear the scars on my glutimous maximus from one exceeding huge "massive corner" that knocked me right across the street into the path of an oncoming taxi, driven by an iraqi now living in the US --- naturally when it came time for the police report, IT WAS MY FAULT and the Iraqi kept screaming about "civil rights violations".

that afternoon, securely locked in my office, i packed my pipe with a mixture of dunhill "early morn" and some bosnian hashish that had recently arrived in a diplomatic pounch which allowed me sufficient "reflection" time to fully asses the unusual events of the morning.

slowly, as my eyes closed and restorative sleep began to regenerate my beaten body, things began to move slowly before my closed eyes ---- TD, s+r and fib lines --- in a constantly swirling melange of color and sound that was to change my life forever.

waking in a start, i immediately switched to "balkan sasieni" tobacco to cleanse the palette and stop the visual melange, much as one does by pouring cold water on cooking pasta, to stop the cooking ---- while true italians would kill you for such sacrilege to their ancient chinese product, stolen by an early mafia member by name of marco polo (was that a REAL name, or what ???)

NOW, with a clarity of purpose and the one true mission i had been born to complete, i roam the corridors of T2W, grabbing "newbs", handing them a paper and pencil and direct them over here, to learn the art of "pin barring", "support and resisting" and how to draw long lines on your charts with percentage numbers !

my life is complete !

mp

 

[trader_dante]

There's nothing like watching Price react - to the pip - to level that I plotted in weeks ago! It's almost too easy it seems

I felt EXACTLY the same way. You've taken a major step forward.

Great stuff!

 

[theduck28]

I felt EXACTLY the same way. You've taken a major step forward.

Great stuff!

I had that very same feeling as the pin formed on Friday!

Tom, would you be looking to add to the trade should it move past the problem area at 17.43 with there being a strong confluence (both S/R and 61.8 fib)?

 

[trader_dante]

I had that very same feeling as the pin formed on Friday!

Tom, would you be looking to add to the trade should it move past the problem area at 17.43 with there being a strong confluence (both S/R and 61.8 fib)?

If it gets there, yes, I would look to add. HOWEVER, I always look to add as it passes through the problem area and then RETESTS it.

Don't worry if it surges through it. Rest assured that nine times out of ten there WILL be a retest.

 

[mp6140]

noticing on EURUSD, the 3 year LRC and the 10 year tops trend line are converged at the 1.6016 which has been hit --- XTREMELY STRONG DOWNSIDE MEDICINE for longer than just a week or so !!

interim supports at 1.5473, 1.5422, 1.5243, 1.5146 and bottom 3 year LRC at 1.4980.

if its going all the way, 1.5473ish area could become a playground and a range play for a month or so !

mp

 

[jinbal]

If it gets there, yes, I would look to add. HOWEVER, I always look to add as it passes through the problem area and then RETESTS it.

Don't worry if it surges through it. Rest assured that nine times out of ten there WILL be a retest.

How do you play the retest?

do you look for Price Action on a lower TF? or do you play it aggressively from the touch with a tight stop below the pivot level? if you catch my drift.

cheers
Jin

 

[spacetrip]

nice looking pin
kisses the 150 EMA which lines up with a decent price pivot AND the 50% fib from the aug16th low

thats fair amount of confluence

problem areas 17.46 and 18.73
What an excellent find.

Your technical analysis is spot on.

Also consider the problem areas provided by the 61 fib and previous support at approx 19.40 and then of course the all time high at 21.35.

What an excellent find.

Your technical analysis is spot on.

Also consider the problem areas provided by the 61 fib and previous support at approx 19.40 and then of course the all time high at 21.35.

I was also looking at XAGUSD and It seemd like a good setup to enter. But bacause I always look at silver in connection with gold, crude oil and EURUSD I didn't enter, because I am more bearish for EURUSD and crude oil for next days.

I am complicating too much?

BTW: Great thread. I learned much more here about managing a trade that from books.

 

[omni]

hey guys,
no one is chatting about the various pins / setups across the board on jpy and indices....... is no one tempted to short the market?????? check out s&p daily....... support + resistance + 50 fib........ pts on the downside = about 12.... pretty good....... no?

 

[jonj]

hi there omni,just scanned the dailys,which pin are u talkin bout? could u post a chart cos i dont see ant on my charts

 

[spacetrip]

hey guys,
no one is chatting about the various pins / setups across the board on jpy and indices....... is no one tempted to short the market?????? check out s&p daily....... support + resistance + 50 fib........ pts on the downside = about 12.... pretty good....... no?

Yes, we have really strong resistance around 1400. But the pin bar is quite small. It is not indicating a big reversal. I thik that most of investors are waiting for the FOMC Announcement of tomorrow. After that I expect a big move.

 

[omni]

Thanks for the graph spacetrip.

I know the pin isnt a "big one" but size isnt everything considering all other factors supporting this trade. It is also not the only one, see dax and all yen based pairs for back up of either a major level breakout, or as i think.... a sell off.

Usdjpy (2 days ago) had a great setup off the 10480 resistance line, now at 10390, this trade has been a long time coming in my mind...... as TD says, let the market come to u.....

Any other ideas out there?

ps. benefit of small pin bar is small stop loss

 

[spacetrip]

I agree. I am also very bearish on USA and most European Indices.

On wednesday are many important announcemens during the day. So I think that the market will be very volatile during the day so it will be difficult with small stop loss.

Anyway, I am thinking to enter short around 14000 with stop loss around 14010. But this is not a daily pinbar strategy any more.

 

[MrGecko]

Guys, I gotta say think you've been a bit lucky with the spoos trade if you took it. Others may disagree, but IMO there wasnt a solid setup here.

Starting with what I think you both got spot on is identifying where something interesting might happen; The resistance, fib levels, (I have my eye on an ascending TL and the ascending triangle if we see a break north). Coupled with the data tomorrow, and you are right that things might get lumpy (a sea-faring term for choppy).

But w/ regard to the pin bar itself; well this could just be down to timeframes but it looks like a Doji to me. Even if you class it as a pin, look at it's size compared to the bars around it - what it is that 1pipped says; "Longer the snout, lower the doubt" !! It seems rather inconspicous, not the back and forth, "coal face" action that we like to see for a setup. Another thing you might like to look at is the volume on yesterdays pin (for front month e-mini futures contracts). Pretty weak volume for a session where we suspect a break through a resistance level has been firmly rejected; I would have preferred to see big volume as the market comes out from under their desks for a good old fashioned scrap with a definate winner declared.

To me, this bar is saying "be flat!". Include with that tomorrows events that might make things hairy (for everyone, including the big boys), a trade from this bar alone is a little too risky IMO. Kudos goes to you for identifying where it happened, but you should allow for the possibility that even where price is at important levels nothing "tradeworthy" will emerge - don't expect top quality PA setups to appear at areas like this all the time, just be well prepared. Fact of the matter is everyone has eyes on tomorrow, and with this in mind I have unwound everything to avoid getting stung.

One last point, is that if (and I say if) you consider yesterdays bar a Doji, then it has formed 2/3 rds of a candlestick pattern called an Evening Star, which is also a reversal setup. The Doji in question is interpreted as uncertainty from both the bulls and bears, which makes sense if everyone is holding back from big plays before tomorrow.

 

[grimweasel]

I have played this pin bar on GBP/YEN(shaded/arrowed) today for a healthy 300 pips profit. I'm still only using small amounts but the plan does work!
I did however lose an equal amount on the Silver pin from 2 days ago that hit the stop loss whilst I was at work today!
Hey Ho, some you win some you lose. I think I will only take the best possible set-ups from now on!
Grim

 

[mp6140]

I have played this pin bar on GBP/YEN(shaded/arrowed) today for a healthy 300 pips profit. I'm still only using small amounts but the plan does work!
I did however lose an equal amount on the Silver pin from 2 days ago that hit the stop loss whilst I was at work today!
Hey Ho, some you win some you lose. I think I will only take the best possible set-ups from now on!
Grim

================================================================

mayhaps and perchance, yee olde stopping loss was set a wee tight ?

hard for me to tell, as everything i do is pure platinum, and i pay little attention to silver !

mp

 

[MrGecko]

================================================================

mayhaps and perchance, yee olde stopping loss was set a wee tight ?

hard for me to tell, as everything i do is pure platinum, and i pay little attention to silver !

mp

Oh dear, I feel slightly nauseous.

 

[mp6140]

Oh dear, I feel slightly nauseous.

MISTER gecko ----

KINDLY examine the intent and delivery of my post, and while not a side splitting, rip snoarter, it was meant and sent in fun !

also geckos should learn to speel butter !

mp