Making Money Trading

[MrGecko]

Will be very interesting if the current hour continues to form a second pin as it looks to be at the moment....early days of course. 3pm figures should help give a little more direction.

This is just my take on things, but I try not to form a view (read opinion) on bars that are forming. In this example, you have the idea "pin bar" only 20mins into it's lifespan - anything could happen before the bar closes. I find this helps to avoid "chasing the trade". This becomes more important the further down timeframes you go, on a daily TF you can sometimes get away with it for a better entry; but on an hourly, i wouldn't even dream of it.

Also, I don't like to mix timeframes to manage a trade. My entry was on the 240min, so I won't look at anything smaller. I may look at the daily to see where I am in the bigger picture, but I try not to go down timeframes, there are conflicting signals all over the place.

 

[knight_trader]

This is just my take on things, but I try not to form a view (read opinion) on bars that are forming. In this example, you have the idea "pin bar" only 20mins into it's lifespan - anything could happen before the bar closes. I find this helps to avoid "chasing the trade". This becomes more important the further down timeframes you go, on a daily TF you can sometimes get away with it for a better entry; but on an hourly, i wouldn't even dream of it.

Also, I don't like to mix timeframes to manage a trade. My entry was on the 240min, so I won't look at anything smaller. I may look at the daily to see where I am in the bigger picture, but I try not to go down timeframes, there are conflicting signals all over the place.

I couldn't agree more and my apologies as I'm new to the pin bar stuff so seeing them everywhere.....even before they are born. I was on the verge of going and deleting the last post actually so thank you for writing this comment. I need to kerb my excitement and apply a little more patience

 

[MrGecko]

there's no need to apologise! bl00dy hell, everybody has their own view on what to and what not to do - IMO "the quickest way to learn swimming is by throwing yourself in at the deep end" - try what you think might work on a sim and see what happens!

 

[knight_trader]

there's no need to apologise! bl00dy hell, everybody has their own view on what to and what not to do - IMO "the quickest way to learn swimming is by throwing yourself in at the deep end" - try what you think might work on a sim and see what happens!

Think I just became suddenly cautious of other people reading what I as writing. I trade the FTSE intraday and have done for the last year but starting to try out a new method has me a little too eager and I was worried other beginners may be picking up on my bad habits.

Like you say though, stick it on a paper trade and see what works.

 

[rogerha]

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psssssssssssst --- in english, its called a "long legged doji"

just being a smart **** here --- nice methodology even if you should be using the LRC and s+r

if you wish to add to its accuracy, use normal bollingers and a stochastics --- if it closes OUTSIDE of the bols, youve got a WINNER, which will be confirmed by the stochastics giving a BUY signal

the same going for the SHORT side run also --- closes ABOVE the bols !

btw, bollinger has opened a new website for ONLY forex and the bol bands !
LOL

mp

Hi MP,

That Dynamic Support and resistance overlay seems to just be fractals, is that your understanding also ?

Thanks.

 

[trader_dante]

Why has MP been banned??

 

[rogerha]

Alright Grim,

I am short Eur/Usd at 1.600.

Tom

Tom, I have been away for a couple of days, but spotted what appeared to be a two-bar pin ( I think) on the hourly charts on the 22nd at 14:00/15:00, since it was at the logical 1.600 level would you have traded this ? I suppose it can be argued that there was no confluence, but since this pair was making new highs, I expect confluence to be hard to find. Speaking of confluence.........

I have seen another Fib trader add the levels to his Fib tool on MetaTrader of -23.6, -38.7 etc, and using them as targets when price extends into unknown territory (or even just for general trade management). I have had these levels added into mine for some time, and if you take some time to look at the attached chart of the EUR/USD Daily you will see these levels labelled as targets. I just wondered what your opinion of these would be, they seem to be quite effective if you look at them historically. I can see some logic in it. Of course I do not want to confuse this thread with this suggestion, but would appreciate your thoughts. It also added some confluence to the trade I have spoken about above.

Also are you aware of any good books about trading Fibs ? I fully understand everything you have showed us in this thread but would be very keen to understand it in some more depth. I realise that Fib's only make up part of your approach, but I always prefer to understand something as much as possible when I am trading it.

Cheers !

 

[grimweasel]

Has the E/USD rout begun? Big falls this arvo, so I guess your 1.5600 will be tested very soon Tom?
Grim

 

[rogerha]

Has the E/USD rout begun? Big falls this arvo, so I guess your 1.5600 will be tested very soon Tom?
Grim

Grimweasel, Calne, just down the road from me ! Looking at my analysis I think it has to get through this 1.5625-5640 area, I would be interested to see what Tom thinks of this, since I am still trying to get to grips with this.

 

[grimweasel]

Rogerha!
Well, the Marlborough. I must confess to shopping there every weekend and It's really my spiritual home; I love the place esp Waitrose! We should have trading coffeee at Armidillo's cafe?
TD reckons that the 1.56 level was his short, as mentioned earlier. The action seems to have stalled there for the moment. Let's see where 0600 tomorrow takes us as things heat up again!
Grim

 

[Ljr]

Yes, sometimes you get a pin bar as a signal to enter and an opposing pin bar as a signal to exit.

This little phase in the Euro was beautiful (see chart)

P.S Barclays is one of my favourites

You guys see the Pin bar on the Daily on Barclays?

Its touching previous support but this support has also been broken a couple of times so I'm not sure. This was also strong support back in 2004. TD do you think a support level from this long ago is still significant. I didn't notice it until I plotted the support line based on the last couple of months but it kind of jumped out at me when i zoomed out.

Any comments?

 

[nine]

A pin "bar" is not one bar but 3. The rhs bar is not there yet and the reliability of a pattern anticipated is much lower than a pattern completed.

 

[Ljr]

A pin "bar" is not one bar but 3. The rhs bar is not there yet and the reliability of a pattern anticipated is much lower than a pattern completed.

OK but assuming the Pin in question satified all the criteria ( long nose, short body etc). Admittadly it does not stick out very far past the previous bar but I guess this is where discretion comes in. The next important factor is WHERE the Pin has occured ( confluence ).

In this thread TD has shown us that if the trader is happy with the setup then you enter on the break of the Pin. I don't remember reading anywhere that you have to wait for the 3rd bar to form or am I not understanding what you are saying?

What I am really asking here is do others think this Pin has occured at a place that makes it a high probability trade?

 

[MrGecko]

Rogerha!
Well, the Marlborough. I must confess to shopping there every weekend and It's really my spiritual home; I love the place esp Waitrose! We should have trading coffeee at Armidillo's cafe?
TD reckons that the 1.56 level was his short, as mentioned earlier. The action seems to have stalled there for the moment. Let's see where 0600 tomorrow takes us as things heat up again!
Grim

Awwww... I remember Marlbro'... as a boy, trying to cross the road was like running the gauntlet!

Anyway; the EUR/USD situation looks interesting ATM. this is the daily chart, the 1.56 level isn't highlighted as S/R but it's there on the 240. The levels I have eyed are 1.54 and 1.50

1.5400 is a .619 retracement of the latest move up, and is the base of the rising wedge pattern.

The 1.5000 level has 3 S/R levels; the top of the ascending triangle (in green), and two fib retracements of the recent moves up (they might not be clear on the chart, because they are right on top of each other!) Actually they are a little below it, but the psychological aspect of the 1.50 handle means that's where I'm treating them.

I'm already in this, but if the 1.5600 level breaks this would be candidate for an E(3) entry. Im considering "parking" this as a position trade and letting it run for a month or two. IMO this is a sexy chart.

 

[rogerha]

Awwww... I remember Marlbro'... as a boy, trying to cross the road was like running the gauntlet!

Anyway; the EUR/USD situation looks interesting ATM. this is the daily chart, the 1.56 level isn't highlighted as S/R but it's there on the 240. The levels I have eyed are 1.54 and 1.50

1.5400 is a .619 retracement of the latest move up, and is the base of the rising wedge pattern.

The 1.5000 level has 3 S/R levels; the top of the ascending triangle (in green), and two fib retracements of the recent moves up (they might not be clear on the chart, because they are right on top of each other!) Actually they are a little below it, but the psychological aspect of the 1.50 handle means that's where I'm treating them.

I'm already in this, but if the 1.5600 level breaks this would be candidate for an E(3) entry. Im considering "parking" this as a position trade and letting it run for a month or two. IMO this is a sexy chart.

Not a lot changes, you still have to have eyes in the back of your head to cross the road there !

Well interesting time on the EUR/USD, it punched through the support at 1.625 and then made my next level of support at around 1.5545, and has now rebounded back into my earlier support area, now resistance and hovering around a fib level.

So what do we reckon, just a normal retracement and ready for a further push down ? Or is that a Pin forming on the daily off of a fib and the bottom of an ascending channel. Or am I talking rubbish and in fact highlighting I still can't see what is going on :|

 

[MrGecko]

Not a lot changes, you still have to have eyes in the back of your head to cross the road there !

Well interesting time on the EUR/USD, it punched through the support at 1.625 and then made my next level of support at around 1.5545, and has now rebounded back into my earlier support area, now resistance and hovering around a fib level.

So what do we reckon, just a normal retracement and ready for a further push down ? Or is that a Pin forming on the daily off of a fib and the bottom of an ascending channel. Or am I talking rubbish and in fact highlighting I still can't see what is going on :|

Geez; pop out to the dentist and P/L reduced by 1/2

Well this is a tricky one; do we take profits; reverse; or sit it out? TBH I havent decided yet. I'm still about 125+ pips in the black...

Earlier I mentioned that I might roll this into another portfolio and play it as a positional trade. If I look at it this way, I am still bearish on the pair - On the technical side, on the dailies we are still in a lower low and lower high phase, and I can't see a great deal of confluence from S/R at current levels (put it another way; if I was flat, I certainly wouldn't be looking to go long on this evidence alone). Our rising wedge pattern has broken, and we would have expected to see a bigger move down than we've been given so far. But if I want to play it positionally, I should also consider the fundamentals. the break of the RW was due to the dissapointing IFO figures yesterday, which suprised everyone a bit, and IMO set the ball rolling. Going into the weekend, there is probably some profit taking going on, Euro M(3) and the MCC revision, which could be propping the pair up for now. Next week is going to be v. interesting - lots of data wed, thurs, and fri. IMO the key issue is whether the fed statement takes a turn to the hawkish, indicating that rate cuts may pause; coupled with the general sentiment that seems to be "is that a light at the end of the tunnel?" (will the spoos break 1400????), and the case for being bullish on the pair is weak. So given the circumstances, I want to see the bears test a more significant level of support than the 1.5600 level, at least try to set new lows, with 1.5400 after that.



just read the post; went on a bit, so in short, both my technical and fundamental message is "Don't panic Mr. Mainwaring!". I'm going to see how we get on into the close of the US session, she's good for 100pips either way.

 

[rogerha]

Geez; pop out to the dentist and P/L reduced by 1/2

Well this is a tricky one; do we take profits; reverse; or sit it out? TBH I havent decided yet. I'm still about 125+ pips in the black...

Earlier I mentioned that I might roll this into another portfolio and play it as a positional trade. If I look at it this way, I am still bearish on the pair - On the technical side, on the dailies we are still in a lower low and lower high phase, and I can't see a great deal of confluence from S/R at current levels (put it another way; if I was flat, I certainly wouldn't be looking to go long on this evidence alone). Our rising wedge pattern has broken, and we would have expected to see a bigger move down than we've been given so far. But if I want to play it positionally, I should also consider the fundamentals. the break of the RW was due to the dissapointing IFO figures yesterday, which suprised everyone a bit, and IMO set the ball rolling. Going into the weekend, there is probably some profit taking going on, Euro M(3) and the MCC revision, which could be propping the pair up for now. Next week is going to be v. interesting - lots of data wed, thurs, and fri. IMO the key issue is whether the fed statement takes a turn to the hawkish, indicating that rate cuts may pause; coupled with the general sentiment that seems to be "is that a light at the end of the tunnel?" (will the spoos break 1400????), and the case for being bullish on the pair is weak. So given the circumstances, I want to see the bears test a more significant level of support than the 1.5600 level, at least try to set new lows, with 1.5400 after that.



just read the post; went on a bit, so in short, both my technical and fundamental message is "Don't panic Mr. Mainwaring!". I'm going to see how we get on into the close of the US session, she's good for 100pips either way.

Interesting though Gecko, I think if I was short I would be bringing my stop to about the 1.5700 level, since on the daily I can see a fair bit of support (and a fib) at around 1.5500, and I think there might be potential for the market to rebound off that.

On the other hand, I am not doing this live yet, so it's easy for me to say :cheesy: But I like to discuss it whilst I am waiting for my account to be open, it's always interesting to hear other opinions.As for confluence on the daily, well I can't see any, so no long entry there anyway. In fact price is now below the 21ema so it's out of that sort of retracement area between the 10ema and the 21ema.

Still looking at the hourly, I reckon we might get a retest of the 1.5550 area, price rejected the fib at 1.5665 nicely, so you could be right mate !

 

[Trader1UK]

Great Thread... Im only on page 10..

 

[jinbal]

Decent pinbar setup on silver?

nice looking pin
kisses the 150 EMA which lines up with a decent price pivot AND the 50% fib from the aug16th low

thats fair amount of confluence

problem areas 17.46 and 18.73

 

[trader_dante]

A pin "bar" is not one bar but 3. The rhs bar is not there yet and the reliability of a pattern anticipated is much lower than a pattern completed.

I disagree. The rhs bar is not important as long as it hasn't broken the low of the pin before it triggers.