Mad Cows Trading Journal: EURUSD

[StupidCow]

Probability 90%.

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4363
43XX (Manual)
4347

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4363
4385 (Manual)
4347

 

[StupidCow]

Probability 79%.

 

[StupidCow]

Probability 89%.

 

[StupidCow]

Probability 72%.

 

[StupidCow]

No rocket shot (darn). Triple bottom reversal setting up at 72% probability Long.

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4363
4375 (Manual - adjusted lower)
4347

 

[StupidCow]

Probability 81%.

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4363
4385 (Manual - adjusted higher)
4347

 

[StupidCow]

Triple bottom now established at 81% probability to target.

 

[StupidCow]

Looking for the Exit....

 

[StupidCow]

Bullish triple bottom set, but now forming the initial stages of a Bearish harmonic pattern with X at 4396, A at 4347 and B at 4375. BC retracement now at 50%. Setting C up for move to target. However, C could push to a deeper retracement first, but I'm expecting the triple bottom to prevent that.

This is a complex composite pattern - holding at 81% probability Long to target.

 

[StupidCow]

BC leg now at 61.8% of a Bearish harmonic.

 

[StupidCow]

EURUSD
Long
4363
4377 (Manual - adjusted lower)
4347

 

[StupidCow]

Bearish harmonic dominates the combined structure, CD would have to push to 61.8 of XA. (X = 4396 and A = 4347). So, I'm relying on the CD leg of the Bearish harmonic coupled with the established Bullish triple bottom.

 

[StupidCow]

Now, I can see why the rocket shot off the triple bottom got stalled. A Bearish harmonic was forming on top of it.

 

[StupidCow]

Tactically, I'm in the right position Long. Strategically, it is not the best position to be in.

Probability drops to 72%.

 

[StupidCow]

Smaller Bullish harmonic now forming: X = 4356, A = 4375, B = 4358 and C = 4370. It is a very small harmonic but it is inline with the overall Bullish triple bottom and it is on the leading edge of price action.

Probability holding at 72%.

 

[StupidCow]

Leading edge Bullish harmonic now setting D at near 100% of its XA.