Alright, enough about the cycles(time) which seemed so simple but i guess not. this thread will address price projection a powerful tool but probably not as accurate as my cycles. First the theory, but its 'pseudo science' so skip it if you choose. My theory is that there is no 'randomness' in the markets but they have a definite mathematical structure. They are a product of investors perceptions of events,value etc. I told you i used to study Elliot back in the day but could never consistantly interpet the wave structure correctly. But it facinated me that waves both up and down were often related by fibonacci ratios.Wave 3's were often related to wave one's (the initial thrust up) by ,say 2.618 or something.Again going back to the waves within waves concept(wave1if viewed closer has its own wave 1thru 5 and so on to infinity!) It struck me that vitually every tick is an up or down thrust culminating in a eventual top or bottom. Pretty weird , i know. Thats kind of how price proj. was born. I figured virtually every move both, up or down has an initial move which should be related to its own little wave3, or maybe even wave5 by a fib. ratio. Enough with the 'eclectic' guess at why this works. I use the golden ratio of 1.618 to forecast a price proj. target. Warning: like my cycles ,all this is telling you is where a 'bounce' may be, not whether its for a point or twenty points. thats why i use it as atool in conjunction with mov. avgs ,my simple indicators and my simple(or so i thought!) little cycle technique.Often times several different charts will give me the same number. (and not from the same points on the chart!) Such was the case recently with the 825.00 low on the es. On a shorter term basis, same thing with the 984 top. Predicting a turning point is frankly, not that difficult, but knowing if that turn will be 5 ticks or 500 is. thats why im a scalper . all i really care about is the next few minites. Any way remember i commented on the cycles thread that i knew by around 10:15 that the market 'wanted' 984? heres how that came about.Remember , the theory is that every initial move times 1.618 and added to the end of that initial thrust gives the point at which it will run out of gas so to speak. What happens after ill get into in the following chart.
Ok, i dont really know if 984 will be achieved or not, just that the market wants it and if it gets it it could be a decent turning point. As we get closer heres some minor examples of price proj. on the way. Iget a rough overview from the 5 or 15 min chart but the 1 min. is what i trade off of. first move up before much retracement from the 968.75 low is A where the high is 972.50(972.50-968.75=3.75 and 3.75x1.618 is 6.06.Added to the end of the move at 972.50 gives 978.56. projection hit at B 979(i dont quibble about 2 or 3 ticks, since my stops are 2-4 handles usually!) B has a high of course of 979.00 and a low of 977.25 , which i missed typed on the above chart. do the math.. proj is 974.42.off by only 2 ticks on a 5 point move! pretty cool, huh? the market then retests the 979.00 high travelling to the initial low of 975.75 on the next bar before any moveback up. This of course gives a proj. of 970.50 and the low at E (which i one again misslabelled was 971.25.So sue me missed by 3 ticks! Still pretty dam close. then we go from 971.25 to 974.75(see why i misslabelled?) and this gives 980.40 which of course is hit at G off by less than 2 ticks. Is all this coincidence, maybe but all i know is these 'coincidences' happen every single day, and i take advantage of it every single day! well now were getting close to 984 and your friends arnt laughing at you anymore like they did in the morning.(remember the cycles from the cycle thread? you even know within a few minites when the next peak might be!) FInally the 976.25 low goes to 979 before the next bar retraces almost half of it. Proj. is now 983.44(call it 983.50 and this morning the bigger 5 min chart was saying 984.50 so theres your range and trade if the tech, indicators agree! ( AND YOU EVEN KNOW WHEN!)
well you knew the market had a high likely hood of a bounce off of the 984 area and since it had been going up most of the day getting extremely overbought even on the 15, 30 and 60 min charts your pretty sure its going to be a good trade1 Now what? Depends on your time horizon , but im a scalper just wanting a few handles the very next 1 min bar telegraphed a decent move possible to 975.50 or so as you can see! and since i usually jump out at the first 'stall' , i probably would have bailed around 976-977. There you have it. Not as hard as you think. I have most of the math memorized and only rarely use my little calculator. For instance, a 3 point move ,add or subtract, 4.75 to 5 and so on.
rols
Experienced member
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Excellent stuff!
Do you use Metatrader - if so this may be of use. The indicator gives fib retraces between swings and number of bars between peaks (in brackets)
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NO, i dont have metatrader, ninja, or any of the fancy tools. Iused to trade for a living , but now just for fun. i intentionly keep my life very simple. just using the charts, and a simple calculator ive had 2 losing days in the last 2 months.And they had nothing to do with the cycles,or price proj. On one day i held over the weekend(which i almost never do!) and the market opened 20 handles against me! The other day, i 'chased; all day. Istill battle the same demons,all traders face! My work is really quite simple! Once you get the hang of it. At a glance you can usually get a good idea of whats going to happen next.
wsjalerts13
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Kool,
Can you please explain why did you pick that time frame 942.75 to 958.75 is it because of the low or the bars or something else?
Thanks,
WS.
Can you please explain why did you pick that time frame 942.75 to 958.75 is it because of the low or the bars or something else?
Thanks,
WS.
for a real life (textbook trade using this method) example ,go to mypivots .co and checkout the traders lounge forum under the globex 11-03-08 thread starting about 7:38 . follow along with your charts. Itake great pains to explain my proj and make yet another 'brilliant' call..NOT REALLY YOU CAN TOO!
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montmorencyt2w
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Kool,
Sorry to be thick, but over on the mypivots forum / Globex thread which you referred to, I could not work out what is was exactly you were trading. I guess more experienced hands would suss it out, but I suppose my experience is too limited to do so. Can you throw light?
With thanks,
M.
Sorry to be thick, but over on the mypivots forum / Globex thread which you referred to, I could not work out what is was exactly you were trading. I guess more experienced hands would suss it out, but I suppose my experience is too limited to do so. Can you throw light?
With thanks,
M.
Sure, Mont! remember the top chart is 5 min. At 7:36 on 11/3/08 i state on the forum that i just looked at the chart and saw the proj. to 964! im trying to show on the above chart how i figured that out.Thats why i got short a few min later(7:38) or so at 972.00. later on of course as you can see on the top chart(5 min) an even lower proj. may have been given(962.50). ANY WAY, as we get closer to the 964 objective i switch to the shorter term 1 min chart( the lower chart above) and basically look for cycles for when might be a low. That gives me an idea of when! My intention was to show others what i see on the 2 above posted charts during a sample trade cause just following the posts at my pivots may not always be that clear! Hope that helps!
Ihave the standard 14 bar %r , the only diff is my overbought line is 92, not 80 and my over sold is 8 not 20 . SAME for all time frames (1, 5 , 15, 30, and 60,min charts ) i also have a 54 period exponential avg on all charts. Mostly i just look at 5 min and 1 min, cause im a very short term scalper . Some times on big moves i look to the longer time frames for moving avgs (54 and bollinger) for possible support or resistance. also to see if a top or low might be ' important' IE: all time frames oversold or overbought. Obviously those tend to be bigger moves!
just nailed a good trade like that at mypivots .com traders lounge, es 11-04-08 thread, last page or 2. All time frames were extremly oversold , i had projections to a max of 986.50 and a buy in at 987.50 expecting a run to at least 999.25 . check it out!
