This thread will put forth my theory on timing 'cycles' or swings in the market using a unique little trick i have successfully used for over ten years now. First a brief background on how it was discovered.Years ago i was an elliot wave groupie and while i had confidence in the theory, i found that to trade off of it was practically impossible. There were always 2 or 3 counts possible ,etc. It did however open my eyes to certain patterns and i turned my attention to studying them . Cycles intrigued me ,but like the waves, they were always stretching or compressing and so were also too inaccurate to trade off of. Then i discovered a simple little trick that i still use today with great success!
Basically , the theory is this . I count from any peak to the next peak. Lets say its 10 bars. Imultiply that by 2 to see where the low is for that cycle is going to be. Not necessarily 'the low' but the low for that cycle. Same thing in reverse.Count low to low to get where the peak is(for that cycle). this is so simple a child could do it! The trick is that on some ocassions i add one bar to my count . Ill get more in to that later. This works on all time frames any chart, any index ,commodity ,etc. Iuse this in tandem with some simple tech. indicators (williams %r and stochastics) to see if i want to buy or sell. Ialso use another discovery of mine ,price projection which i'll cover in a future thread. heres an example in realtime trading just this morning.
Ialways look for the nice bowl shape or upside down bowl shape ,depending if you want a up or down cycle. Note that there are thousads of cycles on any chart or at least as many as there are peaks adn lows! I use tech. indicators and price projection to narrow thing s down. Play around with it and youll find it to be the most powerful tool you will ever use. Ive had 2 losing days in the last 6 weeks or so and that was from impusive 'chasing the market' not from the cycles. More coming in future threads.
Let me know what you think or if you understand since im not sure im very good at explaining. By the way these charts are of course from this morning and im up 8 handles already. (up 34 yesterday) I basically post my trades (mostly in advance and as they occur) at mypivots .com , under traders lounge,the es thread.
im up 18 handles today, and im not kidding i dont even rmember a losing week .All year long ! The only time i ever lose is cause i get bored waiting for a cycle and just chase a move impusively. The beauty of my Kools tools is that no worries about an uptrending , downtrending or sideways market. No worries about cycles stretched or compressed. It takes some getting used to however. There are lots of rules on when to add a bar or not. Also its cool to see how a cycle within a cycle will often give the same target. Iuse a 5min chart for the bigger picture and then when we get close i fine tune it with the 1 min chart. When you get the hang of it you can make some extroininary calls! Ido it every day at my pivots .com. (mini low at 10:51) a couple min. before it happens! W hen you combine it with my price projection techniques, you can truly master price and time.
December?
As I said before. Well **** me!
It would tie in with the much needed year end rally. I shall come back end year and see if it pans out.
Have already started spotting cycles within cycles. And seen it perform live for only a very short time at the moment.
It is as you say Kool!
Still early days yet for me to put too much trust in it.
Did you stumble across this by accident or did something just click?
Thx Hw, of allthe threads here ,i think i have the most respect for yours. You seem like me in a way , a true student of the markets. Thats the real joy for me. not making money , thats really easy now , but to see all of the magic of fib. relationships and techniques coming together in a fashion we may never fully understand but can always appreciate! Price and time , baby, price and time! Gann had the right idea, he just made it too complicated. Rn Elliot had good insight , he just didnt go far enough! I feel like people like u and me carry on the torch of spending hours , months looking at charts, till we find patterns and relationships that later seem so obvious! More coming soon! AND in closing , like you , im always wanting to learn more!
