Kools tools... putting it all together

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koolblue

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In this thread, i will attempt to show how i use price proj and cycles to decipher the market. I thought it would be fun to look at the longer term, so heres the monthly chart. When looking at 'longer terms' of course there is always more room for error, but my purpose here is not to give a strict forecast , but to show how using these tools , its been a long time since i have been truly surprised by market action.
 
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MONTHLYCYCLE.png
 
This is the spx cash chart ,cause my chart servive hasnt updated their monthly ES yet, but all values are the ES values. After we corrected off of the Oct bull market high at 1586.50 the next good low was B at 1406.25. This gives a price proj of 1114.61and immediatly told my buisness assoc. this is where we are going unless we quickly surpass the 1586 high. It was regarded as heresy of course .. untill Oct 3 or so when we knifed thru it. CYCLE wise i told them the a high to the next possible high showed a low of significance due in mar. As you can see it came to pass.Since at 1255 , the number i gave them hit almost dead nuts and we now flirted with the 20% bear market line, they were skeptical, but they werent laughing anymore!(ps the actual mar low,not shown was 1253).In the interim of course we made the C high at 1527.00 and d low at (jan)1255.50. This now gave a price proj of 816.25, They didnt buy it ,but they did pay attention! After the may rally up to 1441.00(E),i was able to state my best case scenerio for the likely end of at least this phase of the bear market. Counting the cycle from A to E gives Jan 09.(A view i still hold today) . Incidentially cycle C to E correctly showed a low of significance in NOV , not necessarily Oct. as conventional analysts were calling for.Remember the price proj of 816.25? it was hit and the market turned on a dime this week!
 
So whats likely next? Take this with a grain of salt,because im not always right! Remember i never originally thought we would go below 1100! Note the May high (E) at 1441.00 and July low(F) at 1200.75. this projects to 812.03. The last couple of weeks we have seen the market in a large up and down consolidation, every so often making a marginal new low. First it was 837, then after a huge rally i think we hit 825 a few handles lower and another strong rebound. then we came back this thurs to hit the magic 816.25 before once again rebounding strongly! So one more marginal low around 812 is not out of the question. And a major low in JAN09 seems at least possible! (by the way, now i have V.P.'s at work pumping me for my 'outlook' every day! I find that incredibly amusing!) . Now lets see what the weekly chart may tell us.
 
The weekly chart above clearly shows the same scenerio as the monthly. Bar number 66 or 33 weeks from the MAY high should be a significant low. This again would call for the mid Jan time frame.(special note: since you dont know if a high or low was made at he begining of the week or end i always cut myself one bar of slack. in other words im looking for a low bar 66 -68 ,in real life) Looking for a smaller time frame cycle ,one might choose from B to the Aug high C at 1313.50. AND GUESS WHAT? That would have called for a good low this last week. But caution is advised here because look at the next bar.(D) . it clearly seems to overlap bar C almost identically and from this perspective,( which is why i wanted to show this chart!), this might be a case where we would want to add one bar and use bar D INSTEAD! That would call for a low not this coming week ,but the next one. And if that were to occur, would we expect another 'marginal' new low? Maybe 812 if not hit mon? Its certainly possible. I dont have the answer. No holy grail here , just a set of tools to use in conjunction with your other existing methods for a rough roadmap so theres no big surprises.
 
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My first post at this forum (under us indicies) i gave several downside numbers to watch for . they included 824 and 812-13. I think only 20 people checked out the post. LOL . Look at bar Athe next bar severly overlaps it so it looked to me like bar A is a one bar projection. 1067-974.25 gives 824.19! Thats how i knew it. BAR B was a dead nuts strike! From acycle perspective, counting from barA 5 bars to the closing high gave the exact day! Or should we have counted 6 bars? notice how they overlap and its even hard to tell which is the absoute high. Bar 5 isthe closing high but the absoulte high was bar 6. Cases like that you never really know for sure and consulting a smaller timeframe chart will usually clear up the mystery.Counting 5 hit the low dead nuts but counting 6 certainly gave a low also. it was the lone down day and from that low never closely approached again we steadily climbed upward to bar D the 1008.50 peak. Note how bar C and D THE SAME THING HAPPENS! (Sometimes i think the 'boyz' in the pits do that on purpose to hide their actions..lol) . any way, So do we start a count at bar C or D (to bar F ,the next good high)? I suggest being cognizant of both , of course. ON a side note youve seen how i knew about 812-13 from the monthly chart. Youve seen how i knew about 824 from the daily chart. Now look at bar f peak. the price projection given by this peak (962.50-905.50)is 813.03! incredibly close to that monthly projection given from May to July! These little clues between different time frames and different times happen all the time and we would be wise to look out for them!Also note that a price proj. from bar D (1008.50-947.00) gives the value of 847.50. Thats why last week , when the market was around 936 i stated that this 850 level was critical for the bulls. By the way, should a Gm bankruptcy cause another 'market crash' the monthly and daily chart have already shown you the worst case scenerio. See if you can figure it out.( hint: the bar after G on the monthly, or bar D and the next bars low on the daily.. both give the same within 3 or 4 points!).Currently hourly charts proj to 789-794 depending on which bar we use(unless 904.25 or 918 is touched again). after the low,MON or tues, we should begin getting upside projections.
 
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SUMMARY: My work at this website is almost complete. I have tried to provide a set of tools to be added to your already existing arsenal to hopefully enhance your trading. whether or not any of these numbers like 812-13 come to pass or not, i hope thru price projections and the cycles you can leave with one key bit of knowledge. The markets may be driven by investors perceptions of how to interpet future earnings ,news of the day ,etc.but there is a mathematical structure in both price and time in how they reach the objectives of those perceptions. Its not 'random walk' ,baby, and i hope ive begun to show this! I dont pretend to know every facet of this strict mathematical consrtuction and in fact ive only scratched the surface! I leave it up to others to expand on my work. At the very least, i hope that these new techniques will be of some small help. I have a little more help to give to my 'students' at mypivots.com(actually friends) and then my work there will be finished also. Most are already making some amazing calls all on their own! GOOD TRADING ALL! (Now how bout a rating or a rep? lol)
 
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Multiple for Proj.

koolblue said:
SUMMARY: My work at this website is almost complete. I have tried to provide a set of tools to be added to your already existing arsenal to hopefully enhance your trading. whether or not any of these numbers like 812-13 come to pass or not, i hope thru price projections and the cycles you can leave with one key bit of knowledge. The markets may be driven by investors perceptions of how to interpet future earnings ,news of the day ,etc.but there is a mathematical structure in both price and time in how they reach the objectives of those perceptions. Its not 'random walk' ,baby, and i hope ive begun to show this! I dont pretend to know every facet of this strict mathematical consrtuction and in fact ive only scratched the surface! I leave it up to others to expand on my work. At the very least, i hope that these new techniques will be of some small help. I have a little more help to give to my 'students' at mypivots.com(actually friends) and then my work there will be finished also. Most are already making some amazing calls all on their own! GOOD TRADING ALL! (Now how bout a rating or a rep? lol)
Click to expand...

In your post, on this site, Proj. you use the multiple of 1.618. However on the My Pivots forum you use the multiple of 2.618. Please advise which you recommend. Thanks agaon for all of your work. Jack S.....
 
JackS65 said:
In your post, on this site, Proj. you use the multiple of 1.618. However on the My Pivots forum you use the multiple of 2.618. Please advise which you recommend. Thanks agaon for all of your work. Jack S.....
Click to expand...

Jack,

Same difference, just depends on if you then add the product to the high or the low of the move. 2.618 + the low or 1.618 + the high.

Cheers,
UTB
 
correct, Blades, i use 2.618 but i just thought it would be simpler to explain using the ratio most are familiar with.
 
Interesting charts.
I've been tracking the Wilshire 5000.

Do your charts have dates on them, or an indication of the time span?
 
should 802.25 be surpassed you would want to consider 739 to the 768 high. diff. of 29 giving a projection of 814.92(815.00). Hourly chart projects to 837.50
 
I believe I understandthe cycles, however it is the price proj. that is giving me a problem. How do you decide which bars to use for the proj., both long term & short. In the above example you used one bar,(750.00-739.00). You then used (762.50 -739.00). Why not use the bar immediately to the right of the 739.00 bar instead of the 762.50 bar? I presume the third calculation uses the 768.00 bar as it is the high of this cycle. I hope I'm not to much of a bother. Missed you yesterday however I had my best trading day of the month garnering, 52 handles. Thanks again for your time. Jack S.
 
Im simply going from the lowest low to the first high before a significant retracement. Strictly adhereing to the rules, the only real projection is the very first bar containing the 739 low,because the very next bar shows retracement of maybe 50% or so of that first bar. So strictly speaking the only valid projection is the 767.50 number. I'm just trying to show the mathematical structure that i theorize the markets contain, with the other admittedly not within the rules,projections.By the way,i didn't use the bar to the right of the 739 bar for this reason: look at the 739 bar closely! it goes from 739 to its high and then RETRACES to where it closes. At least that is the most logical way to look at it. the next bar opens at tahat level and appears to continue retracing untill it hits its low. See it? SO AT THAT LEVEL YOU HAVE ALREADY RETRACED ABOUT 50% OF THE FIRST BAR. Its up to the individual, but i usually figure about 20% or more to be a 'significant' retracement. A further hint , friend , look at the last 15 min bar. See what that's telling us? unless the 802.25 high is touched again of course! Good trading to you, my friend!
 
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