Knowing when to leave a profitable trade - snatching loss from the jaws of profit!

[Dealhunter]

I welcome comment from more experienced traders regarding this trading sequence:

I am spreadbetting with IG, using ITCharts to identify price action on support/resistance and trends.

1st chart is Admiral Group plc as at 25/3.
My analysis:
Perhaps a descending triangle forming on 780 support, suggesting potential break through this support level.
Next support would be around 736.
Considered going short at 775 (i.e. clear break through the support), with target at 736, and stop loss at 822 (representing clear break of descending triangle).
Reward/risk = 47/40, <<3 so gave it a miss.

Forward to next chart on 28/3
Descending triangle pattern broken – no definite move down expected.
Stock trading fairly near support and towards low of recent range.
Tempted to go long at 780, s/l at 730, target 1050. R/R 270/50 = 5.4 – looks a goer!

Went long shortly after market opening on 1/4.
Trade promptly moved into profit, bobbling around 10 points or so for several days, and then bombed - see 3rd chart.

I am still in the trade, as my cgsl has not yet been reached, and given that the price is now around the point where major support appeared previously (Jul 2007) I am tempted to keep the trade and to open a new long position in expectation of a signficant increase.

My questions are

1. Is this wise
2. Could I have seen the downturn coming and exited while original trade was still in profit
3. How would I have known the downturn was not a short term correction before heading up towards my original target?

I have some similar trades sitting in profit at the moment, but having lost momentum, and am caught in two minds about pulling the plug while in profit or sitting tight and waiting for my real target to be reached.

 

[Dealhunter]

Next trade in the series...

The next trade with this dilemma is National Grid.

1st chart is 25/3.
My analysis: Downtrend approaching major support. Can expect buyers to come in here with good prospects of trend reversal.
Go long at 689, s/l 665, risk 24. Target 800. R/R 110/24 = 4.58.
Good to go!

Entered trade on Mon 31/3.
1/4 moved clearly into profit, but since 3/4 hasn't gone anywhere - see 2nd chart.

My dilemma is do I stick with it and hold on for my target, or take my profit now (c26 pts)? If I hold on, how would I recognise the difference between a correction before heading further up and a downturn that would threaten profits so far?

 

[Dealhunter]

Help and advice?

Any advice for this newbie?

 

[black bear]

charts do not seem to enlarge so I guess no responce is because no one can see them or coud be one reason

 

[Dealhunter]

Thanks Andy - I'll look into that. Thought I'd followed the instructions correctly...

 

[Dealhunter]

With enlargable charts...hopefully

I welcome comment from more experienced traders regarding this trading sequence:

I am spreadbetting with IG, using ITCharts to identify price action on support/resistance and trends.

1st chart is Admiral Group plc as at 25/3.
My analysis:
Perhaps a descending triangle forming on 780 support, suggesting potential break through this support level.
Next support would be around 736.
Considered going short at 775 (i.e. clear break through the support), with target at 736, and stop loss at 822 (representing clear break of descending triangle).
Reward/risk = 47/40, <<3 so gave it a miss.

Forward to next chart on 28/3
Descending triangle pattern broken – no definite move down expected.
Stock trading fairly near support and towards low of recent range.
Tempted to go long at 780, s/l at 730, target 1050. R/R 270/50 = 5.4 – looks a goer!

Went long shortly after market opening on 1/4.
Trade promptly moved into profit, bobbling around 10 points or so for several days, and then bombed - see 3rd chart.

I am still in the trade, as my cgsl has not yet been reached, and given that the price is now around the point where major support appeared previously (Jul 2007) I am tempted to keep the trade and to open a new long position in expectation of a signficant increase.

My questions are

1. Is this wise
2. Could I have seen the downturn coming and exited while original trade was still in profit
3. How would I have known the downturn was not a short term correction before heading up towards my original target?

I have some similar trades sitting in profit at the moment, but having lost momentum, and am caught in two minds about pulling the plug while in profit or sitting tight and waiting for my real target to be reached.

Hopefully the charts below will now work properly...

 

[Dealhunter]

The next trade with this dilemma is National Grid.

1st chart is 25/3.
My analysis: Downtrend approaching major support. Can expect buyers to come in here with good prospects of trend reversal.
Go long at 689, s/l 665, risk 24. Target 800. R/R 110/24 = 4.58.
Good to go!

Entered trade on Mon 31/3.
1/4 moved clearly into profit, but since 3/4 hasn't gone anywhere - see 2nd chart.

My dilemma is do I stick with it and hold on for my target, or take my profit now (c26 pts)? If I hold on, how would I recognise the difference between a correction before heading further up and a downturn that would threaten profits so far?

...and enlargable charts for NG...

 

[Dealhunter]

Any comments anyone?
Charts now expand OK.