Hey tradesmart good to see you dipping a digit in the Forex waters
I've left ES behind for the moment, at least in the discretionary sense, as it is clearly a market for the fully fledged elite gladiator rather than a dangerously casual Frugi! The erudite and occasionally bewildering posts on 'No Indicators Revisited', along with an uncomfortable, though by no means terrible, erosion of funds, provided sufficent evidence for me to effect a change of trading tack. Not that I've given up, but further observation and dark siding apprenticeship is required before I return to battle. So, I have been trading the Euro future for a few days and I already feel much more at home, though the position size is mildly daunting.
Anyway here's a chart showing a lovely inverse H & S on the 30 min Euro with possible target. There also seems to be a fairly rough Wolfewave with the line drawn between 1 and 4 showing another potential target. Personally I expect a pullback to 1.2100 followed by more upside, but if 1.2100 fails I'll be looking at the Wolfewave instead. I'm sorry the prices won't match up with spot exactly, but I'm sure the basic patterns are on both.
Edit: Now I look at that Wolfewave I reckon we may only be at the top of wave 3 as it is similar in length to wave 1 (and they both have a little pullback in the middle). This would imply a messy wave 4 pullback tomorrow of similar size to wave 2, probably knocking out a few stops just below 1.2100, then a wave 5 up 1.2200 or so. Wretched waves u never know which one yer on!
A few naive observations from a new Forexer:
1 Lots of choice in chart time setups. I've chosen 7.00-21.00 GMT as most of the action seems to take place between these boundaries, but I realise the appearance of patterns may depend on the time scale chosen. Is there a time scale the people generally use?
2 Pivots really work - e.g look at the horizontal coloured lines and the price action around them.
3 I don't suddenly feel the need for indicators. Price action is if anything smoother and more predictable than index futures, with less nasty tricks played on the little fellas by the big boys.
4 More suitable to (semi)-mechanical system trading due to the size and regularity of big trends. One can take a lot of whipsaws and still do well on balance. ES will kill you if you don't concentrate the whole time and get every entry and exit, er, pretty much spot on.
5 Better for the impatient like me because moves seem to have more velocity and more frequency than indices. Impatience = deteriorating discipline in my case so this must be a positive.
Funny as it's all trading, but the Euro just feels more comfortable for some intangible reason. Famous last words :cheesy:
