January 2004 - Forex

[kevinmcm]

Patience is everything in currency trading. I feel the same way but there are some good trades appearing still, € and £. That last £ tarde was a cracker, if played properly its was 30 points in the bag. I didnt have a good entry and took my profits too quickly for the reasons you both mention . It could fly in either direction. If unsure, stand clear is the best plan.

 

[kevinmcm]

Dont quote me on this, especially after the last 2 days but the € may try to get to 2610-2620 area over the next few hours. Where it goes after that I'm not sure. Got pretty close to the next Fib down at 1.2559 which would have been a 100% retrace form lst weeks big push up.

The only potential trade I saw on the € was along around 5.30 when I thought it was heading to the same area.

 

[rezo_s]

Hello Everyone, Hope you all enjoyed your weekend.

Now its time to get back to work. Well, I have been following the market since early this morning in order to find an entry for short (sell) eurusd or but USDCHF (which are basically 2 same things). Yes, I think it is time for correction, and I am aiming for the 50% retracement (see the Daily chart attached: 09.Nov.2003 - 12.Jan.2004). That was a long trip north, and it is time for some correction, and who knows, maybe for something more afterwards. For now lets talk about correction, and as you can see from the charts, first level of support is around 1.2150, followed by 61% at 1.1950. I think the 1.20 may start to be a problem for bears, taken 1.1950 is so close. So I think aiming for 1.20 is the thing to do now.
Just as I am writing, the Euro is showing further weakness and is currently trading at 1.2337. I hope to catch some nice entry after a bit of consolidation, but for now there is only a sell off.
There is not much to talk about here - just wait for consolidation and sell.
Stop should be big enough as we were recently in a very strong bull market; I think at least 70 pips, but 100 is what I think safer. as an alternative, one could trade USDCHF with 100 pips stop. I will be targeting the 1.20 area as I already mentioned, so 100 pips stop is acceptable.
If one wants not to trade for a longer term, it is a good decision to take shorter term trades. Maybe that is what I will do as well. Instead of one 100 pips stop trade on Euro, I will take 2 shorter term trades for 50-60 pips target (Euro and swissy) with 30 and 40 pips stop respectively. Will see. I will try to post about it, but I cannot promise.

Good Luck everyone, and a great trading week,

Rezo

 

[Zenda]

Pound/Dollar chart

Zenda Had a great weekend thx

 

[rezo_s]

sold EURUSD now at 1.2509

 

[rezo_s]

this is a short term trade with a 50 pips target and 30 pip stop.

 

[rezo_s]

Got stopped, loss of 30 pips

Good Luck!

 

[Kilnside]

Thanks to great threads like this I've now switched from spread betting Stocks/Indices to FX ( GBP/USD). Like it a lot. Find Pivot Points (built into chart package) quite encouraging for S/R ideas but then wondered if this was just luck so far. Beginners question please - Do they have a bearing in the real FX world and how do you settle on an Open or Close if the market is going 24 hrs (or is it)?

 

[rezo_s]

Hello Kilnside,

Fx market is open 24 hours, but I dont really understand your question. Could you please elaborate what exactly do you mean by

Do they have a bearing in the real FX world and how do you settle on an Open or Close if the market is going 24 hrs (or is it)?

.

Rezo

 

[rezo_s]

Week Jan.25 pre-opening

Hello Everyone,

Little bit of my view and strategy for the coming week (at least the first couple days).
Lets look at what last week showed and where it closed.

EURUSD I will be concentrating on the single currency, but I can say that at the moment USDCHF and GBPUSD are in same situation to USD.
Well, opening of the week was at 1.2385 after the selloff 2 weeks ago. Last week USD bears came in once again and we saw the USD weakening once again, and it was a strong move. But there is one good sign as compared to recent past. This time, even though we had a good week for USD bears, on Friday we saw covering of many of those positions no doubt. This is a very good sign to expect further strengthening of USD, and to expect for correction to 1.21 for the start. As we can see, the top of last week was at 1.2770 - lower that the previous high around 1.29. This is yet another indication for the correction (if there will be one) should be deeper - lower lows and lower highs is a signal of a downtrend - maybe it will be a small trend, but if we can make 200-300 pips on it, it doesn't look that bad. According to the lower lows and lower highs, we should expect for lower low now. (we already had a 1.29 high, followed by low at 1.2350 -> high at 1.2770 -> ? will we see lower low ? should we see it, this time it may go to 1.2150 level (50%), and maybe even lower (1.1950 - 1.20 the 61% retr).

My strategy is as follows: I will be watching Monday - Tuesday to enter longs on USD (/cable/chf and /euro/cad). Maybe even later during the week if I need more confirmation. I will be choosing which currency is best to be traded, but for now Canadian looks weak enough to start seeking for entry right away! Will see how it does in the beginning of the week.

For now that is it,

Good Trading, Good Luck!

Rezo

 

[Kilnside]

Rezo

Thank you for responding. With hindsight I could have put it better. The charting software I use includes calculated Pivot Points for stocks/indexes. I've found them quite useful. When I started looking at GBP/USD found that it produced Pivot Points for that too and by inspection they were no more or less useful than the others. To get an Open and Close for calculation purposes theoretical market hours have to be assumed. Default seems to be 07:00 to 22:00 hrs or thereabouts although the user can vary that. So they appear to have some mileage but I don't know if that is simply arithmetical coincidence. To rephrase my question if I may, analogous to stocks, do FX professional traders have some rule of thumb like Pivot Points calculated (say) across the time segments within the 24 hrs corresponding to the various regional financial market hours?

 

[kevinmcm]

On the 5 min chart there has been a quick push up which has left gaps all the way down to 1.8226. I would expect the biggest gap, top is 1.8239 do be tested again. Hit some res. now, short 1.8264. Looking for 20 points. Too risky to hold if it goes the wrong way, might not come back !

 

[kevinmcm]

Covered at 1.8238, +26. Still possible it dips under 1.8226 area, happy to take profits when they appear. Maybe even miss a good profit if it does retest the 1.8170 low but too volatile for me right now so snatch and grab it is.

[Edit]
Just covered the gap

 

[rezo_s]

Kilnside,

now I understand what is the question. Well, I dont think there is a rule of thumb accepted by everyone, but in general, this market is considered to be 24h, and open/close is happening simultaniously at 0:00 london (I think - I am not sure) . But for example, Refco is rolling over the positions at 5pm ET each day - that means thats when the day close is happening and new day is counted to start (its 0:00 GMT -2 if I am not mistaken). But is doesnt really matter, because usually (most of the time) market in those hours 22:00 - 0:00 GMT is very quiet.
All the indicators and calculations are made on 24h basis - there is no deviding the market to european session and treating it as if there is no US or asian session.

This is what I think and what I know,
hope it helps,

Rezo

 

[Kilnside]

Rezo

Many thanks. Very clear and exactly what I wanted to know.

Regards

 

[rezo_s]

just now bought USDCAD at 1.3128

stop at 1.3015

target at 1.3360

Good Luck!

 

[rezo_s]

Hello Everyone,

USDCAD long position is still open at 1.3128, currently we are trading at 1.3080 after diving yesterday to 1.3037.

Stop is in place at 1.3015.

We are in channel on 240 min charts, which should be targeting the 1.3360 target area in the next move unless we break the channel. For now there are no changes in this position, and the outlook is still north on this pair.
As I already mentioned in the beginning of this week, Canadian is proving to be the weakest against USD at the moment. Even though we had a rally of 280 pips on cable, 220 pips on Euro and Swissy from day lows vs USD, whereas UASCAD declined only 130 pips from its yesterdays high.

That is it for now,

 

[rezo_s]

moving stops to lock 50 pips of profit now.

 

[Zenda]

Nice Trade - Z

 

[rezo_s]

thanx Z