It's All About The Pips...

[ekanters]

Long term

Hi all,

Did a view on longer term and trying to get a hint for the near future. I have pasted a simple chart with only long term fibo llevels and the 200 day MA. The USDCHF has smashed both indicators with a vengeance and the EURUSD together with the EURJPY are about to take out the second after leaving the first one the 200 day MA behind on a friday. The USDJPY is sitting right on the 200 day MA which only leaves GBPUSD in no man's land. Just take a view on the overall image.

Ofcourse this has everything to do with the behavior of the stock mmarkets and points in the direction of risk taking again. The question is, if this is based on a fundamentals or just in the mind of investors with the idea everything is well again.

First of all I think this stress test has been manipulated and second I am sure these Bankers are a bunch of liers. Further more the price of Gold and Oil are moving up again and the Bonds and Treasuries will be going on the way down. This is all an indication of higher interest rates and should be a break on the stock markets in the longer term. But the trend is your friend and that's what you need to do. Follow the trend as long as possible with the right stops and be prepaird to change direction as soon as reality hits the markets again.

Greetz your for ever BEAR,

Erik

 

[poborsky]

Hi all,

Did a view on longer term and trying to get a hint for the near future. I have pasted a simple chart with only long term fibo llevels and the 200 day MA. The USDCHF has smashed both indicators with a vengeance and the EURUSD together with the EURJPY are about to take out the second after leaving the first one the 200 day MA behind on a friday. The USDJPY is sitting right on the 200 day MA which only leaves GBPUSD in no man's land. Just take a view on the overall image.

Ofcourse this has everything to do with the behavior of the stock mmarkets and points in the direction of risk taking again. The question is, if this is based on a fundamentals or just in the mind of investors with the idea everything is well again.

First of all I think this stress test has been manipulated and second I am sure these Bankers are a bunch of liers. Further more the price of Gold and Oil are moving up again and the Bonds and Treasuries will be going on the way down. This is all an indication of higher interest rates and should be a break on the stock markets in the longer term. But the trend is your friend and that's what you need to do. Follow the trend as long as possible with the right stops and be prepaird to change direction as soon as reality hits the markets again.

Greetz your for ever BEAR,

Erik

great post and great charts. ive been doing the charts too this morning cos its raining down here. I keep coming to the conclusion that the buying of stocks and the rise in commodities while us treasuries move down and the dollar sells off is not about risk taking but about risk aversion. just my theory and could be complete crap!

 

[ekanters]

I keep coming to the conclusion that the buying of stocks and the rise in commodities while us treasuries move down and the dollar sells off is not about risk taking but about risk aversion.

Risk aversion takes place when the big players want a save haven and that is government bonds and Gold. This puts a lot of pressure on intersest rates because it's easy for governments to get money. (read banks are not safe.) Risk taking is when the big players move back in to risky assets and out of bonds. (read banks have been bailed out) This will move interest rates higher again. Where does this leave gold??? Well there are enough players out there that want an insurance against everything in these wild markets and that is GOLD and GOLD alone. Central Bankers will try to keep Gold below the 1000 level because once it gets over that mark it will be headline news and the bull run is on. Out of money and in to Gold. Final scenario is skyrocketing interest rates and falling housing prices. STAGFLATION. Not happened yet but already writing about it for over 3 years now. It will happen.

Greetz,

Erik

 

[poborsky]

Risk aversion takes place when the big players want a save haven and that is government bonds and Gold. This puts a lot of pressure on intersest rates because it's easy for governments to get money. (read banks are not safe.) Risk taking is when the big players move back in to risky assets and out of bonds. (read banks have been bailed out) This will move interest rates higher again. Where does this leave gold??? Well there are enough players out there that want an insurance against everything in these wild markets and that is GOLD and GOLD alone. Central Bankers will try to keep Gold below the 1000 level because once it gets over that mark it will be headline news and the bull run is on. Out of money and in to Gold. Final scenario is skyrocketing interest rates and falling housing prices. STAGFLATION. Not happened yet but already writing about it for over 3 years now. It will happen.

Greetz,

Erik

Agree the gold price is being manipulated and savvy investors are buying at these artificial prices. But I believe that risk aversion is changing direction away from the USD and that some big players no longer see US treasuries as safe. Money could be flowing into anything but USD, sending stock and commodity prices up. Many US treasuries are short term, so lots of new issuance in the next couple of years. The Chinese are looking for other places to put their currency reserves and the US govt are buying their own bonds with printed money, that cannot go on forever. If the bond market collapses then interest rates will go up causing hyperinflation with a devalued dollar. Property and stock prices may still rise but will be worth less against hard assets such as gold and silver.

 

[Rollingstone]

A little bit of trivia

Afternoon all

A year ago I knew very little about currency markets and even less about trading and it was a complete revelation to me when Dan talked about gold as a correlated USD pair. I didn't know that back then, I just thought gold was, well, gold. I know, what a dimbo, but we all have to learn sometime!

One year on and I have learnt so, so much, but it seems Gordon Brown has learnt nothing. Here’s a little bit of trivia on gold, why it’s a safe haven and seen as such a valuable commodity (for any other dimbos like me who are still learning!)

Ten years ago Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, sold half the UK’s gold reserves for £176/oz, which sent world gold prices tumbling. A few days ago gold closed at £601/oz which equals a possible gain of 340% which was effectively lost. The UK is now buying gold back.

Private investors buy gold for financial insurance and Central Banks hold gold to underpin their currencies. Paper money is circulated throughout the economy but when questions are asked in times of uncertainty its gold that provides the systemic health.

There are two camps when it comes to the value of gold though, some say it’s just a lump of metal with no yield and has no interest rate attached to it. Others say its value lies in the very fact that it’s finite; there is only so much gold in the world and it would all fit into a 20m high cube. You can’t abuse gold (you can’t print it) and as such it is one of the most valuable weapons in the Central Banker’s arsenal and will always be accepted as a means of barter.

I prefer silver myself, hey ho.

RS

 

[ekanters]

Gold

To all,

First of all Poborsky, Rolling Stone and myself all three have a point. For 1 it depends on which side of the world you live in. Gold will go up quicker against the dollar for sure. As for me I pay everything in Euro's. Let's lleave the Pound in the middle.

Gold has been around for about 6000 years as a commodity of value. This will not change overnight. Therefore it will remain the currency of all time and sometimes it will be a sleep in terms of value, only to wake up again in times of tention.

Silver is even more scares because it's been used as an industrial commodity as well. So the value of silver will skyrocket even more.

Now the value of commodities in the near future as I see it. Printing money all over the place will put the value of everything else on a higher platform. The crisis that allready started in the 90's yes because this crisis has been building over time and was not just falling out of the sky. The first solution taken by greenspan was lowering interest rates to let people take more credit. He should have taken other measures and let people save instead of spend. Soft doctors make stinking wounds.

Bernanke does not have that option anymore so he starts printing money and makes sure taxes will go up. Europe is now buying Bonds as well and the Chinese have their own problems. (they started the worlds biggest manufactoring factory from scratch with no money at all) Don't believe every number you see or hear. It is all based on money in the future that was not even there.

Maybe confused now but getting at the end of it.

Since we know Banks have giving away loans on Real estate where they thought it would increase in value in the future, the Chinese have build Factories where they thought the spending in the world would continue forever and the Europeans have adopted the eastern European countries with huge loans but forgot the risk of a crisis. They all have the same problem as the Americans already had for decades. Which is taking credit on the expence of others.

They are also all conected through eachother which means when one goes under they all go under. In terms of money ofcourse. Yes hyperinflation will be the outcome because they have all been spending on money that was not there. So it's not a question of where did all that money go, it was simply based on the future. Spend what you do not have.

The only way to get out of this crisis is to create the money we already spend. This is just a short term solution to keep the people quiet. On the longer term this bill has to be payed for. Hyperinflation or when they manage to keep that under control for now by other means, it will show in your retirement or your children have to pay for it.

End of story commodities will rise in a huge way in the long term.

Maybe it sounds a bit complicated but that's because I have a lot in my mind and not english from nature. Never did well in english at school. Learned it from TV but following the financial markets since I was twelve. There is one thing I do know for sure. Never ever listen to analysts.

For trading I have to put my mind off because what I know is for the long term and you can not trade on the long term. Focus on the trend because that's the only thing that matters. Even when the economy is dead, people might still believe all is well and that's what you need to trade otherwise you get bankrupt even when you are right.

Trading has nothing to do with economics but everything with the psycholigy of the masses.

Hope you got something out of this. (I tried)

Erik your forever Bear (but I will trade bullish when the rest of the world gets nuts again)

 

[poborsky]

The US and UK govt bond markets look worse than ponzi schemes to my mind. When investors want their money back then they print some notes and pay them back with the new ones. An ordinary citizen would go to prison for a long time acting in this way. If it were possible to do this without repercussions then why bother building factories and selling goods abroad to bring in money. Why bother keeping gold reserves, just give it away like Gordon Brown did. If there is nothing to back the new money then surely its got to debase that which is already in circulation. I suppose some economist will be able to explain to me why my little theory is simplistic bull****. I saw some figure that said the US and UK had more than doubled their money supply in the last 12 months, according to my theory it means 1 gbp will soon be worth 50 pence. Well Gordon and Alistair will be happy cos the 200 billion they borrowed last year will only be worth 100 next. Ahh I see .......

 

[ekanters]

All Lies

Proborsky and Rolling Stone.

All n all we do agree that its all a bunch of lies and its a complete disaster out there. I totaly agree with Poborsky that if we did the same they are doing now we would be standing in a court room and get the biggest sentence you can imagine.

Madoff did nothing else compared with these guys who try and fool the public. Yes a Ponzi scheme with only one difference!!!! They pay you with newly printed money to cover up their criminal acts where madoff tried to get in new investors.

So its not a bunch of crap you are saying Poborsky its just starting from another area and ending at the same conclusion as I do.

Note: 4 weeks ago our Dutch government wanted to act on these big bonusses payed out in the banking sector. Now they have turned 180 degrees by saying banks can do that by them selves. ( read: One criminal hand/mind feeds the other criminal hand/mind)

Erik

PS1: The word is allready out: According to a well known researcher and not an analyst the Stress Test has been modified to help the banks with a better profile. Banks are now rushing to raise capital before the lies get back in the open again.

PS2: In sum, the banks told the Fed what they were willing to accept, and the Fed did it the way the banks wanted. Mission accomplished.

 

[danarm]

A EuroMillions ticket holder is believed to have broken the European lottery's record by winning a 126m euros (£110m) jackpot.

The ticket, which had all seven winning numbers, was bought in Spain.

If the ticket belonged to a single person, not a syndicate, it would be the largest EuroMillions win.

The lottery, which takes place every Friday, pools stakes from nine countries. The main jackpot is rolled over if there is no winner.

Tickets are sold in the UK, the Irish Republic, France, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium and Luxembourg.

Winning numbers in this week's EuroMillions draw were 04, 23, 24, 29, 31.

The "Lucky Star" numbers were 08 and 09. The jackpot winner has not been identified.

Champagne all round team!!!

D

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Some great posts and some very interesting reading...

Oh i would love to have you three over for a dinner party one weekend. We could put the world to rights!!

Have fun...I am trying to forget about the world at present and sit in my little bubble with my family.

See u monday.

D

 

[poborsky]

i think its stopped raining, maybe I can get a life again and hit a few golf balls in the morning, need the practice. bye till monday morning
Alan.

 

[Rollingstone]

Hi all

Some great posts and some very interesting reading...

Oh i would love to have you three over for a dinner party one weekend. We could put the world to rights!!

Have fun...I am trying to forget about the world at present and sit in my little bubble with my family.

See u monday.

D

Oooh hi Dan

Ha ha! I'm far too shallow to be intellectual at a dinner party, so long as my hair straigteners work, Johnny Depp keeps making films and I can hang out in the club I'm happy.

Um, are you saying you've won the Euro Jackpot or have you got a new Saturday job selling tickets? Whatever, I'll have a little glass of bubbly ta.

Have a great weekend all.

RS

 

[Rollingstone]

To all,

Hope you got something out of this. (I tried)

Erik your forever Bear

Hi Erik

Great posts.

Your English is lovely, particularly how you end your posts! It translates very well.

RS

 

[ekanters]

Hi Erik

Great posts.

Your English is lovely, particularly how you end your posts! It translates very well.

RS

Thanks RS,

I liked the first one better but this modified post fits the the thread better.

For all you guys out there I recommend you read this thread from post 1621 to here.

Interesting discussion from Rolling Stone, Poborsky and myself. Including a comment from Dan. You just might get a bit wiser in the world of financials.

Greetz Your for ever Huggy Bear,

Erik

 

[Rollingstone]

Ponzi

Link to brief info about Ponzi fraud schemes as it's been talked about in the posts.

BBC - Panorama - Ponzi schemes: A brief history

RS

 

[danarm]

Good morning

I trust you all had an enjoyable weekend…

The USD is weak and that rally (late on Friday) would have surprised a lot of the market.

Asia held off from buying USD overnight and consequently no retracements took place. Most of the setups this morning involve buying USD so we need to be very careful or be patient and wait for short USD opportunities. The DOW looks set to retrace but it takes a brave man to short in a bid market for now.

CABLE
• Looks set for a pullback after Fridays rally but long USD is a problem for me.
• 1.5250 is key resistance.
• Could play this with a very tight stop using 1.5250 as resistance.
• Short play at 1.5235/40 (region) with stop at 1.5260

EURUSD
• Again looks set for a pullback after Fridays rally.
• 1.3667 is key resistance.
• Safest way to play this would be to let it fall through the 15min 20ma and then retrace to it before a short play with a stop above 1.3670.

GBPJPY
• Looking for GBP to weaken this am.
• Previous high at 150.50 so lets looks for a double top with stop above the 150.65 level.

Verdict
• Retracements are due but remember the USD is weak so risk should be limited.
• I will not fight against GBP today if it wants to rally.
• It is too overbought for me at present

 

[danarm]

Trades Taken - Live Announcements

• STILL SHORT ON ALL 5 CURRENCIES
• Been selling CABLE from last night below the 50 region on the double top.
• Not a perfect morning as should have hit USDJPY and GBPJPY. Shame 


• EURUSD - Short at 1.3645 with stop at 13680 – Banked part at 1.3602 (Stop breakeven now)

• CABLE – Short at 152.10 & 152.88 with stop at 152.55 – Banked part at 151.75 (Stop breakeven now)

• EURJPY – Short at 134.45 with stop at 134.90 – Banked part at 134.00 & 133.36 & 133.30 (Stop breakeven now)

• NZDJPY – Short at 60.10 with stop at 60.60 – Banked part at 59.70 & 59.50 & 59.20 (Stop breakeven now)

• CHFJPY – Short at 88.80 with stop at 89.20 – Banked part at 88.45 & 88.26 (Stop breakeven now)

 

[danarm]

Wactch AUDUSD as well...

 

[danarm]

Its amazing how the weeks change...I hated last week with a passion...Charts were awful and i was pulling my hair out! (What is left of it anyway!!!)

A new week, a new start, we hit it hard and it paid off.

Well traded team London. Some solid pips in the bank and a great start to the week.

D

 

[danarm]

Will keep banking on the way down in all 5 pairs..Took another little chunk out of CABLE at 25