Trading inflection points do present high reward low risk opportunities - not exactly a trade secret. However the article fails to develop this theme but merely mention in passing that it can be done by having strong understanding of institutional supply and demand. The other factor not discussed but in my view is equally important is the expectation of such a strategy i.e. the probability factor.
Taking a low risk trade, and what you believe to be low risk are two different things. Look at those that got wiped out on a gap when CHF unpegged from the Euro. Without a guaranteed stop you were screwed.
Hi Kear - I'm as sorry as anyone for the people who lost in the CHF debacle but as you mention it, its a good example for so many trading principles.
Thing is, the EUR/CHF crash came out of a downtrend, not out of a clear blue sky. Whatever the Swiss national bank were saying, it was apparent from months before 15 Jan 2015 that a large portion of the big market players didn't swallow it. They had driven price down continuously since May 2013 and it had dropped convincingly below every significant MA long before the crash. No traders should have been left long as this would have been highly counter-trend. What else is a classic high risk trade?
I would never have touched that pair, it was too dodgy for me. Look at Cable, my friend took a long 2 days before the massive drop during Brexit, you could see it failing and losing it's upward momentum, but when l suggested a stop, or at a minimum a hedge, she said no, l'm waiting for it to come back. It's easy to lose friends in this game, can't do right for doing wrong, but we still have to battle our own minds, regardless of the pair we trade.
The key word is the one you have used literally, profitability: i.e. ability to make a profit. Just as long as people don't believe the incorrect corollary - i.e. the higher the risk, the higher the PROFIT.
What is low risk?
What is high risk?
Forget that; What is risk?
If it can be defined - why would anyone take a high risk trade?
What is risk related to? Where does timing come in? Does probability exist?
Is risk related to probability????
So many questions still left unanswered after reading the article. All it seems to say is to look for areas of past price rejection - then enter with a tight stop just under:cheesy: (well there is a bit more than that, but you get the gist)
So is the stop the risk??? I dont think so lol:whistling
Also profit potential is not related to risk. Price is going to go where it goes. This aint fixed odds!
What is high risk?
Forget that; What is risk?
If it can be defined - why would anyone take a high risk trade?
What is risk related to? Where does timing come in? Does probability exist?
Is risk related to probability????
So many questions still left unanswered after reading the article. All it seems to say is to look for areas of past price rejection - then enter with a tight stop just under:cheesy: (well there is a bit more than that, but you get the gist)
So is the stop the risk??? I dont think so lol:whistling
Also profit potential is not related to risk. Price is going to go where it goes. This aint fixed odds!
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When I see articles like this it makes me chuckle. Betting on price moving in a specific direction because historically price reacted to a level, is like buying a lottery ticket with the same winning numbers that won in a previous draw and expecting to win again. The drivers of price cannot be attributed to level (besides pegs being protected), indicators, or pocahontas patterns. As wallstreetwarrior said it doesn't dive into what risk is and merely categorises it based on historic price levels and a stop. Not only that but it could also be said that showing a specific chart that supposedly proves the narrative is nothing more than an exhibition showcasing hindsight.
Risk isn't a singleton it is comprised of many factors like risk events, sentiment, unscheduled events, monthend flows, option barriers, central bank intervention, political and geopolitical. The list goes on. You can't define risk as simply placing a stop at a level where price previously reacted. If it were that simple then everyone would be millionaires.
Risk isn't a singleton it is comprised of many factors like risk events, sentiment, unscheduled events, monthend flows, option barriers, central bank intervention, political and geopolitical. The list goes on. You can't define risk as simply placing a stop at a level where price previously reacted. If it were that simple then everyone would be millionaires.
good points ............
i would strongly recommend traders reading more widely on Risk management and indeed the nature of Risk in its many many forms
Risk is widely misunderstood and misquoted in most speculation and trading matters ....
having a true understanding of the risk inherent in any decision is actually a very rare thing .....as many elements of the risk involved are either not included (ignorance) or misunderstood and undersestimated (even more ignorance)
N
i would strongly recommend traders reading more widely on Risk management and indeed the nature of Risk in its many many forms
Risk is widely misunderstood and misquoted in most speculation and trading matters ....
having a true understanding of the risk inherent in any decision is actually a very rare thing .....as many elements of the risk involved are either not included (ignorance) or misunderstood and undersestimated (even more ignorance)
N
