Is it really possible to make money in this trading lark?

To make money in the market you have to become a machine taking away all emotion. Famous market professionals like Darvas in the past have had strict rules and abided by them. That has set them apart from 99% of all traders. Most traders don't take there losses when they are supposed to. I cut all my losses to just 3% and focus on fast momentum stocks. My current posistion is GRA. I hold the stock until my stop loss is tripped. I never lose more than 3% on any trade. There are no exceptions. The point is you can always purchase the stock back again. I only purchase stocks that have made new 52 week highs on great volume. Look at past examples such as TASR and RIMM. GRA also has the same look. To become good in the market you have to study past stocks and how they reacted. Reading IBD can be helpful. I am a purely technical trader. I do not care about earnings. The reason is earnings often lag behind performance. By the time the numbers catch up the price usually has already ran up and is near its peak. The market is run off supply and demand so fundamentals to me are useless. Most stocks I end up buying have good fundamentals anyways and this is just by chance. I do not look at fundamentals. Good fundamentals do not mean the stock price will zoom up. The stock price will only run up on great demand for the stock. These are the rules I go by.

Search for stocks making new 52 week highs. Wait for the pullback and then purchase on the next breakout day on big volume.

Example: GRA - 10/12/2004 breakout on huge volume. Purchased 10/15/2004 on even large volume after the 2 day pullback. The pullback is due to overhead supply. Most stocks will do this after a breakout.

After purchasing the stock I put an immediate stop loss order for 3% below my purchase price. I have since updated that stop loss to the point where I will not lose money on this trade. The number one rule in trading stocks is PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL AT ALL COST. Never let your losses run! That is exactly how I used to lose money. Now I am making money. I am up 20% in 3 weeks which is good considering the current flip flop market. I update my stop loss after every pullback. For example: GRA just broke another new 52 week high on friday. I put a stop loss under that lowest point of the pullback at $11.51. That is right under the low of that pullback. I will continue to do this until the stop is tripped. That is how you protect your gains and prevent massive losses. You have to become a machine. This has to be executed on every trade otherwise your emotions will get in the way and you will lose your shirt. The fact that your stock is going down is good enough reason to sell, and the fact your stock is going up is good enough reason not to sell. So we say..let our losses be small and our gains run. 3% loss and 50% runs add up. I honestly can lose about 10 straight trades and just hit about a 20% gain(on margin) and make up for those 10 straight losses. That is the beauty of it. I rather lose 10 times straight than lose big on 1 trade alone. By the way..the secret to making large gains is in margin. I never go full margin on the first purchase. I always wait for the first pullback before purchasing on margin. If it is a fast gainer then I will purchase about 5% above my original purchase price and move my previous stop loss up to my original purchase price. If any of you have questions email me at [email protected]

Take care and God bless all of you. Don't be greedy and you will succeed.
 
Noahedwinbeach2 said:
I am up 20% in 3 weeks which is good considering the current flip flop market.

You can say that again! Most interesting post; thank you. Do you also short stocks on a 52-week low, or is it a "long only" strategy?
 
There we go, another smart cookie who knows how to make money whilst keeping it nice and simple. Where are the doubters and the doom mongers?
 
LION63 said:
There we go, another smart cookie who knows how to make money whilst keeping it nice and simple. Where are the doubters and the doom mongers?

lol...the funny part about making money is it is simple! People make trading harder than it has to be. Think of it as a ratio. Lets say you win 1 out of 5 trades. If those trades that lost are limited to 3% losses and the 1 win is lets say 50% on margin..how long will it take to make a fortune in the market. Your odds are even better in a bull market.

To answer the question on the short position..I currently am not shorting stocks but yes this applies to shorting as well. You will see in a bear market stocks tend to have the same patterns and resistance levels going down as they do going up. Just flip the charts and you will see that. I do not short unless its a true bear market though because shorting is very very risky. Stocks tend to have big bounces upwards off resistance points. I was trying to time some stocks that were crashing after a peak but the breakouts into lower ground were irregular due to the market conditions and my stop losses kept being triggered. Since my stop losses are my only protection against huge losses I had to get out of those stock. I was not willing to give the stock anymore room than 3 person in the upside because that is my rule and remember to be a machine and stick to the rules. One week is good and one week is bad. So the shorts are having a hard time predicting it. On the flip side though long positions are doing well because even on down weeks strong long stocks are holding there ground and on good weeks in the market the stocks are blasting upward. So the demand for selling isn't high enough for me to warrant short selling. I honestly do not see how people can become only short sellers. I see people on the boards all the time that are so gloomy and it just seems there hoping the market crashes. That is ignorant but you are limited on profit potential on the down side but not on the upside so why not want the market to go up? You can't make 300% off a short sell but you can on a long position. I am glad I am not the only person out there with the brains to follow the gurus of the past operators. Why the heck would anyone listen to these people on cnbc etc who obviously are not rich from stocks or they wouldn't be on TV. Have you ever noticed there own portfolios suck! I am going to listen to people who have made a killing in the market, and I am telling you almost everyone of them primarily focus on what I have said. I first read Darvas and then William Oneil (sp?) from IBD. Then I read some on Jesse Livermore etc. They all pretty much have the same principals of a close stop loss and buying on breakouts.

Other comments:

Day trading is ignorant with any cash amount. Day trading requires total luck. You can't time the market in minutes. a stock skyrockets usually over many weeks not in minutes. It takes time for people to discover a winner and to keep purchasing the stock to drive it higher. This usually cannot be achieved in 1 day. People that do day trading are like people who go to the casino. What you have to realise with a lot of day traders is they have large starting capitals. If you have $100,000 to trade with yeah you can make $1000 a day but thats only 1%. So what..I have been doing that for the past 3 weeks without having to go in and out of the market 100 times. People that day trade usually list there gains in dollar amounts instead of percentage points because it is deceiving to the audience. $1000 dollars sounds like a lot to make in 1 day to most of us but was that $1000 made with a starting capital of $10,000...$100,000 or even $1,000,000? They wont tell you because there fooling you. People who buy and hold stocks until the stock has exhausted itself are the ones who make fortunes.

For those of you who question what I have to say do this as an experiment.

Take 100 pieces of paper. On 15 of the pieces write 15%. On the other 5 write 50%. Now put on the pieces in a bag and mix them up. Pull a piece of paper out of the bag and then write down what you pulled. If it is a blank piece of paper that means it was a loss of 3% since that is what I stop all my losses at. Otherwise it would be on of the others. For instance:

Piece of paper 1: blank
Piece of paper 2: 15%
Piece of paper 3: blank
Piece of paper 4: blank
Piece of paper 5: blank
Piece of paper 6: blank
Piece of paper 7: 50%
Piece of paper 8: blank
Piece of paper 9: blank
Piece of paper 10: blank

we were successful pulling gainers of the bag 2 out of 10 times. That means 20% of the trades were successful. Dont forget to put the piece of paper back into the bag each time.

If you started with $5,000 lets say..you would end up with $6,759.00. Thats a 35% gain and you only won 2 out of the 10 times you traded! Those gains would be magnified even more if you used margin and averaging up techniques!

Anyways, thats just a heads up to you guys out there that think your smarter than everyone else because your a fundamentalist and you think your fundis will dictate whether a stock goes up or down. It doesn't mean jack! Follow past examples of stock market greats instead of listening to no it alls on these boards and the analyses on TV.

Take care and God bless.
 
Noah, you are possibly a good trader but your post on daytrading is rubbish.It's full of inaccuracies probably founded on ignorance.A really good daytrader makes money regardless of market direction.I grant you that in a 1directional bull market a LTBH will outperform most daytraders, but in the choppy markets of the past 3 years I'd say that certainly is not the case.Daytrading is not like going to a casino if you know what you are doing.Saying that 1% return daily on 100k capital is nothing much is foolhardy in the extreme.Do the sums that's a fantastic return, ROCE or in real money.More importantly, that type of return is more likely in all markets for a daytrader. Judging by your comment,

''I do not short unless its a true bear market though because shorting is very very risky'',

suggests you are a bull market trader. A good trader doesn't get scared of shorting.I'd give my money to a good daytrader rather than than likes of you anyday.Much safer and I'd venture that he'd make loads more money and way more consistently.
 
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Day trading is ignorant with any cash amount. Day trading requires total luck.

Sorry I dont agree with that at all and I have shown it not to be the case on many occasions with real time trades posted on this site. I am not going to get into a debate about it, (which I have on previous threads), because one thing I have learned is that once people have made their mind up on something then even presenting factual proof doesnt change it so there is simply no point in even trying any more.


Paul
 
Well if I were to take the balance of opinion in this thread as being indicative of some sort of truth about trading I would conclude it is an utter waste of time and failure, regardless of skill, is almost a certainty.
 
fulgore said:
Well if I were to take the balance of opinion in this thread as being indicative of some sort of truth about trading I would conclude it is an utter waste of time and failure, regardless of skill, is almost a certainty.

equally, it may be indicative that the majority of posts and nature of posts are of beginners who have lost, and have difficulty accepting that it is possible to win.

hence the constant desire for proof.

posting your statements will not achieve much, as you can still be accused of "manufacturing" it, or that is a lucky streak, etc etc etc.
the failure to see that it can be done is a major reason why most players fail. the failure to accept that their strategy may be wrong. the failure to trade after a sequence of losses.

most of the winners try to help. but after barrage of accusations, inuendo of cheat/lying, or straightforward pointless challenges, the winners cant be bothered, and move onto the next winning trade.

you then are left with beginners/losers challenging/arguing other beginners/losers.

have a successful new trading week, y'all :)
 
fulgore said:
if I were to take the balance of opinion in this thread as being indicative of some sort of truth about trading I would conclude it is an utter waste of time
The balance of opinion in threads like this, and in places like this, tells you more about who has the strongest opinions and who most wants and needs to "Be Right", than it does about truth or reality. Didn't you know? :)

But don't disappear in despair - there's a lot of good stuff around here, as well.
 
trendie said:
equally, it may be indicative that the majority of posts and nature of posts are of beginners who have lost, and have difficulty accepting that it is possible to win.

hence the constant desire for proof.

posting your statements will not achieve much, as you can still be accused of "manufacturing" it, or that is a lucky streak, etc etc etc.
the failure to see that it can be done is a major reason why most players fail. the failure to accept that their strategy may be wrong. the failure to trade after a sequence of losses.

most of the winners try to help. but after barrage of accusations, inuendo of cheat/lying, or straightforward pointless challenges, the winners cant be bothered, and move onto the next winning trade.

you then are left with beginners/losers challenging/arguing other beginners/losers.

have a successful new trading week, y'all :)



Yes, having gone through a lot of threads here I see a lot of truth in that statement. It is so difficult to get advice from people who are actually having good sucess because those that have lost have a psychological need to believe anyone saying they are doing well is lying.
 
Roberto said:
The balance of opinion in threads like this, and in places like this, tells you more about who has the strongest opinions and who most wants and needs to "Be Right", than it does about truth or reality. Didn't you know? :)

But don't disappear in despair - there's a lot of good stuff around here, as well.


Oh certainly. I happen to not take the doom laden view espoused by many here. I think it is a case of those that are winning are to busy enjoying themselves to boast about it here and those that are losing feel they are doing a service to others thinking of entering the game by telling them that they don''t have a hope in hell.
 
Noahedwinbeach2 said:
I honestly can lose about 10 straight trades and just hit about a 20% gain (on margin) and make up for those 10 straight losses

Please excuse my ignorance but my small mind is unable to grasp the mathematics involved in the above statement.

I can see one possible solution to this but I would be amazed if you took this option. You would have to start by risking lesser amounts before laying on a relatively huge (catch up) bet on trade eleven. Is this what you’re proposing? You could get away with this for a few times but eventually you would blow up. If you realize this then fair enough.

Congratulations on adopting a Darvas like strategy. I too have many of the classics and find them compulsive reading.
Do you get faded often with this strategy? How do you filter good candidates from bad?

Day trading is ignorant with any cash amount. Day trading requires total luck.

Surely day trading requires greater skill as less people are successful at it.


Rgds.
 
Modern software can produce 100's or 1000's of 'set ups' accross 100's of markets at the click of a mouse.( I know this is obvious)

LONGSHOT
Love the way you called their bluf. ...classic. Who needs TV, this is much better entertainment..
 
fulgore said:
I think it is a case of those that are winning are to busy enjoying themselves to boast about it here and those that are losing feel they are doing a service to others thinking of entering the game by telling them that they don''t have a hope in hell.

Very neatly put. I think you've summed up the whole situation in a sentence!
 
Once again you point out that you have serious reading comprehension problems.
I never stated that I open 100 trades at a time, so there is no way I could reversed myself from that statement. There was no course change, you simply cannot read well. Focus on the word "maybe" and you will realize I never made such a claim, but was using a hypothetical example to prove a point.

To prove you are lying again, I dare you to directly quote me where I said this. You cannot.
Yes, let the record show who is lying here, because it is clearly you.


LION63 said:
You have now decided to change course mid stream, not a problem; you no longer open 100 positions at a time; okay with us;UOTE]
 
Yes, the bluff has been called. Too obvious.

Yes there is a lot of software out there and traders who make 100's and even 1000's of trades per day. The fact that these guys are not even aware of this, and mock such objective facts, further adds to the evidence of their market ignorance.


GotGold said:
Modern software can produce 100's or 1000's of 'set ups' accross 100's of markets at the click of a mouse.( I know this is obvious)

LONGSHOT
Love the way you called their bluf. ...classic. Who needs TV, this is much better entertainment..
 
Never called myself a hot shot, those are your words.
Trading is not about returns? Wow, thanks for enlightening us all on that point :D
:rolleyes: I'll let your absurdly ridiculous statements stand on their own :D




Thirteen said:
for such a hot shot - u seem fairly clueless

trading is not about return on investment. trading is about being an opportunist.

with your mindset i'd stick to buy n hold if u want return on investment.
 
Sadly, it may perhaps be nearly time for the moderators to step in here and declare the thread closed. Such a shame that we can't have a chat about much in these forums without the "doom and gloom merchants" stepping in and hijacking it, insulting people in the process. It's not about Being Right on every little point. It's just about keeping it simple and having a nice, solid, steady, reliable way to make an increasingly good living! :)
 
'more tea vicar?'

I think the threads been excellent myself.

It's good to see some of these phonies 'outed'
 
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