is 100% return each year realistic?

[LiamH]

One can only assume you're immensely wealthy.

Double your money every year, without breaking a sweat.. by the time you're 50 you will be a multi-billionaire.

I'm happy for you. You'd make even more money at a hedge fund, where 20 pct a year is considered a decent return, but hey - what do they know!!

Why do you always assume people would compound their profits? And why do you continue to comment without giving any constructive answers? I still haven't seen you back up a point that you've made...

 

[Martinghoul]

Right, 4xpc, how long have you been producing these sorts of returns pls?

 

[4xpipcounter]

I just closed a trade on the AUD/CAD that did not work out even close to what I thought, but was still +23 pips, as confirmed on my thread. I have a kiwi position that is up by 37 pips. It was opened last night. I also just entered a long on the GBP/USD at 1.5586. It's just business as usual.
Let me put a plug in for WiralTraders' thread. He posts his trades live. He has verifiable over 2,000 pips in the last 4 months. Also EUR/USD Elliot Wave has an excellent thread. He also wins consistently. I would refer you to my thread but that would be self-aggradizing, and my methodology is too weird for most, but for me, highly effective. My forecasting is excellent, which is what I trade from.
Those are just 2 plugs for 2 people I know well, and know they just consider it to be a small thing to gain 100% in a year.

 

[meanreversion]

Why do you always assume people would compound their profits? And why do you continue to comment without giving any constructive answers? I still haven't seen you back up a point that you've made...

You're a character, aren't you?

You have said that you traded once and lost money, so you are now not trading. Yet somehow you feel qualified to promote the view that 100% a year is fairly simple.

Furthermore, in order to back up your "opinions", you have referenced a website where someone claims to make 1 billion percent a month with 3 percent drawdown. (Do you believe everything you read on the web?)

And you're asking me why I'm commenting?

That's pretty funny, when you think about it.

 

[leonarda]

One can only assume you're immensely wealthy.

Double your money every year, without breaking a sweat.. by the time you're 50 you will be a multi-billionaire.

I'm happy for you. You'd make even more money at a hedge fund, where 20 pct a year is considered a decent return, but hey - what do they know!!

I think it's already been discussed that this doesn't scale like that, once you get into the millions and beyond you start to get large liquidity issues and market maker issues...
It's fine when you're just a small fry...

 

[meanreversion]

I think it's already been discussed that this doesn't scale like that, once you get into the millions and beyond you start to get large liquidity issues and market maker issues...
It's fine when you're just a small fry...

The recent BIS survey showed that daily FX turnover is now $4 trillion, I'm sure you could make a few billion without anyone noticing.

 

[LiamH]

You're a character, aren't you?

You have said that you traded once and lost money, so you are now not trading. Yet somehow you feel qualified to promote the view that 100% a year is fairly simple.

Furthermore, in order to back up your "opinions", you have referenced a website where someone claims to make 1 billion percent a month with 3 percent drawdown. (Do you believe everything you read on the web?)

And you're asking me why I'm commenting?

That's pretty funny, when you think about it.

I traded a few times... yep... lost money but now I'm doing it properly so we'll see where that goes but that is not something you can judge my character or opinions on.

I've said at least three times now that the account you refer to is demo and is not verified. The verified real accounts are genuine so take a look at them.

You find points in posts to argue but you rarely answer direct questions... Either post something useful or don't bother, you haven't actually responded to anything I've said with any useful comments.

 

[4xpipcounter]

LOL--I'm 54.
BTW, Meanreversion, the money does not have a chance to compound within the context we are talkng about. Some of that money has to be withdrawn to pay bills.
I don't know much about hedge funds. My specialty and sole focus is forex.
I did tell you the truth. That AUD/CAD trade gave me a gain of 1.6% in a few hours after the spread was paid. My kiwi trade is up 42 pips since last night. That is 4.2% on my account. I'm just telling you the truth.
The sweat is is being mentally consistent. I've read some of your recent posts in other threads and this one. They are excellent! I can also tell you are a good trader. I'm just having difficulty understanding why you (as a good trader) view 100% per year as some outlandish figure.

One can only assume you're immensely wealthy.

Double your money every year, without breaking a sweat.. by the time you're 50 you will be a multi-billionaire.

I'm happy for you. You'd make even more money at a hedge fund, where 20 pct a year is considered a decent return, but hey - what do they know!!

 

[bedsit]

I had a look at a report for this year regarding professionally managed funds specialising in FX trading. Most of them couldn't do better than 10% so far this year.

I don't think I'm a wonderful trader, but today I managed to get 2% and was not that excited about it (analysing today's trades if I've stayed a bit longer could have got more than 3%). All this I managed without risking more than 1% per trade.

So if I ignore the reports (and professionally managed funds) I should think that 100% is achievable, if not more than that.

 

[LiamH]

.... I've read some of your recent posts in other threads and this one. They are excellent! I can also tell you are a good trader. I'm just having difficulty understanding why you (as a good trader) view 100% per year as some outlandish figure.

This is something I actually agree with but so far, in this thread, meanreversion hasn't said anything that has made me question my opinions... That's not to say others haven't! He just seems to have argued silly points that make no sense considering what has already been said...

 

[meanreversion]

LOL--I'm 54.
BTW, Meanreversion, the money does not have a chance to compound within the context we are talkng about. Some of that money has to be withdrawn to pay bills.
I don't know much about hedge funds. My specialty and sole focus is forex.
I did tell you the truth. That AUD/CAD trade gave me a gain of 1.6% in a few hours after the spread was paid. My kiwi trade is up 42 pips since last night. That is 4.2% on my account. I'm just telling you the truth.
The sweat is is being mentally consistent. I've read some of your recent posts in other threads and this one. They are excellent! I can also tell you are a good trader. I'm just having difficulty understanding why you (as a good trader) view 100% per year as some outlandish figure.

Ah, 54 - you are a true fan of trading.

Ok, I don't think there's a whole lot more to say .. I always put thought into my posts and I'm sorry if LiamH thinks I haven't said anything (my original point was that no-one ever mentions drawdown, it's always x% a week, x% a month and so on, when the true question should be - how much risk or drawdown am I prepared to tolerate to achieve this). But as someone else pointed out, nothing anyone here says will change LiamH's mind so he needs to make the journey of discovery himself.

4x, you're clearly an experienced guy and doing very well for yourself, I hope your success continues.

I'm ducking out of this thread.. cheerio !

 

[4xpipcounter]

Meanreversion, I'm sure you know more about hedge funds than I do, as you have alluded to it a few times. There's one thing I know about, which is something obvious. Those firms manage millions and even billions of OPM. They are forced to be over-conservative. The inidividuals that trade the hedge funds I'm sure could make a lot more on thier personal accounts. The traders of the hedge funds have a million to billion dollar industry to protect. In getting the gains I get, I just have my personal assets to look out for, and I have an equi-amount of liquid assets outside my trading equity as a backup plan. There is a big difference in discussing individual trading as opposed to huge hedge funds.
Warren Buffet is another good example. He makes millions on one trade, but he has billlions in equity in his account. All he needs to do is palce his trade with miniscule margining, walk away, and then come back when he is 100-200 pips up, regardless how long it might take. We could trade the same way Buffet does but it would amount to punity if we did, because of the lack of funds we have by comparison.

LOL--I'm 54.
BTW, Meanreversion, the money does not have a chance to compound within the context we are talkng about. Some of that money has to be withdrawn to pay bills.
I don't know much about hedge funds. My specialty and sole focus is forex.
I did tell you the truth. That AUD/CAD trade gave me a gain of 1.6% in a few hours after the spread was paid. My kiwi trade is up 42 pips since last night. That is 4.2% on my account. I'm just telling you the truth.
The sweat is is being mentally consistent. I've read some of your recent posts in other threads and this one. They are excellent! I can also tell you are a good trader. I'm just having difficulty understanding why you (as a good trader) view 100% per year as some outlandish figure.

 

[4xpipcounter]

And this is why we are limited, regardless of the claims or the facts.
I just hope to make a few million without anyone noticing.

The recent BIS survey showed that daily FX turnover is now $4 trillion, I'm sure you could make a few billion without anyone noticing.

 

[Liquid validity]

]

Good point.

If you have a good consistent strategy and the discipline to trade it, you should already have a good idea of the potential returns from demo trading your strategy (or with live trading using smallest stakes possible).

In theory yes 100% is possible, that is purely hypothetical and pointless though. The only thing that matters is you and your strategy. You as an individual trader are capable of anything, and that includes total loss. Backtesting is useful up to a point with a purely mechanical strat, but when the discretionary element comes into play backtesting is nothing more than hindsight trading.

Personally I would suggest you continue demo or small stakes live trading until you can answer your own question yourself based on your own trading record. After 2 years of demo or small stakes (including time spent already) you will truly and confidently be able to answer your own question. Two years may seem a long time, then again its much shorter than the time needed to learn many other professions...

Cheers, thats the most important factor for me, the strategy has to suit you personally, one traders successful strat can be anothers undoing - simple things like TF and instrument will suit some and not others. The only way to determine that is demo then small stakes live trade and build it from there. Every trader has to understand their own psychology and utilise that as an advantage as opposed to fighting it.

I think thats part of the problem in this thread, swing traders versus day traders and scalpers versus scalability and liquidity issues when compounded.

Anyway I'm still a noob here so I'll shut up now

 

[LiamH]

Ah, 54 - you are a true fan of trading.

Ok, I don't think there's a whole lot more to say .. I always put thought into my posts and I'm sorry if LiamH thinks I haven't said anything (my original point was that no-one ever mentions drawdown, it's always x% a week, x% a month and so on, when the true question should be - how much risk or drawdown am I prepared to tolerate to achieve this). But as someone else pointed out, nothing anyone here says will change LiamH's mind so he needs to make the journey of discovery himself.

4x, you're clearly an experienced guy and doing very well for yourself, I hope your success continues.

I'm ducking out of this thread.. cheerio !

I answered your question about drawdown but you didn't answer any of my questions... The fact is that you or anyone else CAN change my mind if you put forward a convincing argument... This isn't much good for newbs is it? Liam keeps arguing with us but we can't be bothered answering his questions so screw all of you... you have to learn for yourselves.

Nice one.

It seems interesting that 4x has come along and proves on a regular basis that these returns are entirely possible yet you have no argument for him? So I'm wrong because I am not currently making a fortune yet he is saying the same and is not being challenged because he is an experienced trader?

 

[Martinghoul]

I have challenged 4x a number of times, I think... He has, so far, failed to convince me of anything.

Liam, the point is that what you see from 4x and other people is NOT proof. Please please please, whatever you do, make sure you start with a healthy dose of skepticism.

 

[Martinghoul]

Meanreversion, I'm sure you know more about hedge funds than I do, as you have alluded to it a few times. There's one thing I know about, which is something obvious. Those firms manage millions and even billions of OPM. They are forced to be over-conservative. The inidividuals that trade the hedge funds I'm sure could make a lot more on thier personal accounts. The traders of the hedge funds have a million to billion dollar industry to protect. In getting the gains I get, I just have my personal assets to look out for, and I have an equi-amount of liquid assets outside my trading equity as a backup plan. There is a big difference in discussing individual trading as opposed to huge hedge funds.
Warren Buffet is another good example. He makes millions on one trade, but he has billlions in equity in his account. All he needs to do is palce his trade with miniscule margining, walk away, and then come back when he is 100-200 pips up, regardless how long it might take. We could trade the same way Buffet does but it would amount to punity if we did, because of the lack of funds we have by comparison.

Your logic here is very wrong, btw, 4x...

 

[LiamH]

I have challenged 4x a number of times, I think... He has, so far, failed to convince me of anything.

Liam, the point is that what you see from 4x and other people is NOT proof. Please please please, whatever you do, make sure you start with a healthy dose of skepticism.

I am coming to my conclusions on this topic but it has to be said that nobody has really said anything apart from well, if it was that easy everyone would be doing it or something to that effect. I respect you, meanreversion (on some topics) and 4x. I don't know if 4x is that profitable or not although he certainly appears to be I shall not take it as gospel.

I have posted in this thread maybe 20 times but still nobody has really replied to my direct questions. You have but you admitted yourself that you're a professional trader and my question doesn't relate very well to what you do. Meanreversion replied to some parts of my questions but his answers have been largely meaningless... Why? He is a respected member, he appears to be an experienced trader and yet he has wasted at least 30 minutes of his life replying to me with complete nonsense. I don't get it.

Maybe you can make 100% per year, maybe not... I'm still none the wiser so despite my best efforts I have wasted a good few hours in this thread which is a shame for any other newbs looking for answers.

I guess I still believe in my sums until I am proven wrong... Please don't take this to mean I believe I will make those returns, I just believe that mathematically it is definitely possible.

 

[Martinghoul]

How about this, Liam? Let's start with a blank slate and be completely agnostic... Moreover, let's (wisely) assume such a degree of skepticism that would imply that, a priori, we don't believe a single claim made by anyone on the web. That may seem like a rather extreme starting point, but, again, the point here is to dispense with the various preconceptions, which may lead one astray.

Now, given this starting point, what sort of systematic return would you expect an average punter to be able to generate?

 

[robster970]

Maybe you can make 100% per year, maybe not... I'm still none the wiser so despite my best efforts I have wasted a good few hours in this thread which is a shame for any other newbs looking for answers.

So I'll have a crack at a succinct answer.

From an arithmetic PoV, it is entirely possible to return 100% per annum on your capital.

However you stand a 100% chance of flushing your capital down the toilet if you have no strat because the market is a negative sum game.

If you have a strat with a positive expectancy over a statistically significant sample size, that strat has to be executed consistently to maintain that +ve expectancy.

The primary reason that doesn't happen is because human psychology interferes with your ability to execute a strat normally leading to a -ve expectancy over the same sample size thus leading to more capital down the toilet.

That's why we're all banging on about psychology rather than basic arithmetic. We're kind of trying to tell you you're missing the point.