InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

[Liquid validity]

Re: Every Trade Is Bank Trade

Thanks for that, I never would have figured it out otherwise

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Re: Every Trade Is Bank Trade

No, every trade is not a bank trade. Some are cyclical trades. Some are forex trades. Some are retail trades. Some are utilities trades. Some are retailing trades. Some are service sector trades.

 

[Andrejki]

Re: Every Trade Is Bank Trade

Hello everyone,I am new here and I need your help, I am getting into currency carry trade strategy and wondering if you could tell me how to do a benchmark of several currencies considering 3month rate, which rate should I take LIBOR or National Banks interest rate??? Which is the rate I need to consider when doing carry trades???? Thank you for your help!!

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Stock Markets Look To Merkel And Sarkozy For More Upside

The markets are higher on the day a panic has subsided. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading at $119.26, +1.14 (+0.97%) on 89,607,142 in volume. All eyes have turned towards Merkel and Sarkozy, the two leaders from Germany and France. They will be meeting tomorrow to discuss key initiatives to help the Eurozone.

The stock market leaders today are banks. In the fear and volatility over the last few weeks, the bank stocks took the biggest hit. It makes sense that as calm returns, these stocks would see a continued solid bounce. Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) is trading at $7.49, +0.30 (+4.17%) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is trading at $36.57, +0.66 (+1.84%).

Technology seems to be the weakest on the day after Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) bought out Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc (NYSE:MMI) for $40.00 per share. This is causing some selling in Google which in turn is causing selling in some other internet plays like Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). Many technology stocks have seen a rapid share price increase over the last few trading days as well. The market seems to need a small pause to digest the gains.

The market continue to look towards the Merkel Sarkozy meeting tomorrow. Great news and optimism could give more legs to the latest bounce while no news and pessimism could give rise to another sharp, quick sell off.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[Rupert206]

Re: Stock Market Alert: Head And Shoulder Pattern

So looks like this trade turned out pretty damn well!

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Stock Market Panic Sell Or Buying Opportunity

The markets are getting crushed today after global worries resurfaced and U.S. economic numbers were just plain ugly. The selling started in Europe early this morning and continued at 10am ET when the Philly Fed Index came in at -30.7. The combination of these two factors sent investors running for the hills, selling everything in sight.

Investors all over the globe are wondering if this is a buying opportunity or should they dump all positions and run for cover. When emotion is removed, one must look at the fall today as a pull back. In the last week, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) went from $110.27 to $121.20. The SPY is trading at $114.63, -5.04 (-4.21%). This happens to be a .618 Fibonacci pull back. In addition, all smart traders recognize that as long as the low of $110.27 is not taken out, the bottom continues to be in.

Other keys that may support this thesis are the charts of bellwether leaders like International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). IBM and Amazon.com hit their 200 daily moving averages for the first time in a year today. The 200 moving average is known as one of the major support trend lines in technical analysis. This level should cause a bounce in both stocks.

Removing emotion is the key to a truly profitable and successful investor. The average investor follows the hype on TV and usually buys the highs and sells the lows. Focus on the technical levels and find the path to profits.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[brewski1984]

Re: Stock Market Panic Sell Or Buying Opportunity

In before Beginner_Joe:

Chart points down. I sell.

 

[Liquid validity]

Re: Stock Market Panic Sell Or Buying Opportunity

Picking tops and bottoms again

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

The Stock Charts Tell Everything

Stocks are advancing sharply across the board. This happened after the S&P 500 held the all important 1122 level. This level was the key low for the last three trading days. The move in the markets appears to be a melt up, as short covering starts ahead of a major speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday. Last year, Ben Bernanke used this meeting to announce QE2. The markets are hoping for some positive statements this time around.

The move today took out a major pivot trend line to the upside. This line can be easily found by connecting the highs of the last three trading days. Today, after hitting the trend line and pulling back, the markets ripped through it. Technical traders are aware that this signals further upside. The markets are likely to trade choppy to higher through the Labor Day holiday weekend. This breakout of the trend line can be seen on the chart below.

The key winners today can be found easily. The easiest place to look is at the former strongest stocks like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), which is trading at $188.44, +10.90 (+6.14%) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) which is trading at $95.90, +2.60 (+2.79%).

The biggest loser of the day is gold. The previous metal is seeing major selling as global fears decline. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) is trading at $180.74, -3.85 (-2.09%).

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[soccerscott]

I agree that financials will outperform. We actually started to see the financials strengthen yesterday. However, I think we are still in a bear market. That means I just don't think financials are good shorts anymore. Wait for a major market bottom before any serious longs.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Trade Lesson: Understanding Bottoming And Topping Tails

Most traders do not put all the pieces of the puzzle together when learning and using technical analysis. Let's talk about topping and bottoming tails. Simply put, a bottoming tail is a bullish signal and a topping tail is bearish. A bottoming tail MUST occur at the lows of a chart. This means that no point on the chart in recent history can be lower. Next, the tail must be substantial, not just a little thing barely seen by the eye. Additionally, the close of the candle must be in the upper 25% when measuring from the lows to the highs. If all these factors match up, you may have a bottoming tail. The same things apply for a topping tail.

Now to throw in the one key that most traders miss and costs them money. To truly keep your winning odds at 90% or better, you must also factor in the market. The below chart is of Corinthian Colleges, Inc. (NASDAQ:COCO) . You can see, a great bottoming tail formed based on all factors mentioned above. However, one factor would keep Chief Market Strategists away from this trade for now. While the stock had a great recovery, it still closed lower. That would not matter if the market for the trading day was flat or lower as well. However, the U.S. stock markets rallied 3-4% the day before. The fact that this still could not end the day higher tells us to give it a little time and then re-evaluate the trade.

Always look at the trading day in the markets and match it up to the stock chart. Too many traders see a pattern and ignore the macro action on the markets. If you want to be a complete trader, start with the micro view of the stock, then expand your view to the macro market. If all things align, a 90% success rate trade will be your reward.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Using The Bank Stocks To Call The Market

The markets just heard from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. His comments on the economy were released at 1:30pm ET. They contained little to no new information. The markets were hoping he would throw a new bone of hope. At this stage, the markets are dipping slightly with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)
$119.28, -1.01 (-0.84%). Overall, the markets should not drop significantly. Just a little selling is occuring after hopes turned out to be false on some new hint of QE3. All eyes continue to be on President Obama and his major speech tonight at 7pm ET.

Earlier today, the markets hovered flat to positive. While the markets were holding steady, and seeing green, the bank stocks were down. Stocks like Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) saw red all day long. These stocks have been amazing leading indicators of market weakness. Today is just one example. It can be argued that the financial stocks, which topped out in January 2011 and fell all year, were leading indicators of the problems the market now is dealing with.

The bottom line is simple. Follow the financial stocks to find the true strength in the market. Should the financial plays become stronger, the markets could be making a longer term bottom. However, based on the one or two up days and then more downside they show these days, all market bounces can probably be used as a shorting or selling opportunity.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[timsk]

Re: Using The Bank Stocks To Call The Market

The bottom line is simple. Follow the financial stocks to find the true strength in the market.

Hi Gareth,
You make an interesting and valid point. For the benefit of the wider membership, in your opinion - what's the easiest and simplest way of doing this? I.e., how do you keep tabs on financial stocks? Do you follow a watchlist of individual stocks, monitor $Bank, financial sector ETF - or something altogether different?
Cheers,
Tim.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Using The Bank Stocks To Call The Market

one of the easiest and maybe best way to watch the financials is to follow the present leader of the group... JPM. JPM has not only become the leader in the financial sector, now you can follow JPM to get the pulse and temperature of the stock market itself. Watch the market follow as JPM moves.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Let The Games Begin

Hopefully many traders and investors know that this Friday is options expiration. Often during the trading week leading up to the expiration there will be a lot of games being played by the large institutional trading desks. You see, this is a time when the small retail options traders will most likely be shaken out of their near term options position. The institutions will usually look to see where the small retail options traders have placed there bets. Once the elaborate computer programs sniff out where the popular bet has been placed the institutional money will move the stock in the other direction. This is why options expiration week is always so volatile, erratic, and tricky.

It is important to always remember that many small retail options traders will rarely ever exercise a stock, they are simply looking to capture a gain in the premium paid. Most options traders will generally close out the position before the actual expiration of the option. This is another reason why the entire trading week leading up to options expiration is so volatile. Traders should also be aware that this is a week where rumors run rampant in the market place.

Traders and investors will see the most volatility on the popular trading stocks. Stocks such as Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL), Netflix Inc.(NASDAQ:NFLX), Amazon.com Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN), and Biadu Inc.(NASDAQ:BIDU) will usually be extremely active and volatile throughout the trading week. It is important to remember most traders that are purchasing options simply do not have the capital to directly purchase the stock and the institutions know that, therefore, the institutions will take advantage of this and try to shake out the small retail options trader throughout the entire week.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[maxima]

Re: Let The Games Begin

You see, this is a time when the small retail options traders will most likely be shaken out of their near term options position

yes this why they bought greece and made the greeks life unberable. then they blackmailed merkel with lesb1an pictures from her student age, bought most expensive escrot for sarkozy, threatened osborne to tear his teddy bear appart... all of these to make small option retailers to cry this friday. bl00dy capitalist swines

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Gold Can Tell The Future

What would you give to know the future? Well it appears more and more that gold may be telling Wall Street just that. It has happened many times over the last few months and yesterday it happened again. The markets were looking ugly heading into Monday morning. Fears from Europe continued to pound Wall Street traders and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were setting up for a 200 point decline. However, while the markets were scary, gold was not confirming the move. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) was sharply lower. Many people scratched their heads at this. The amateur thought process could not understand why gold was not sharply higher on massive fear. Remember, gold generally spikes higher on fear.

The fall in gold was telling of a reversal on the horizon. This was an amazing leading indicator telling of a future market reversal. Sure enough, the Dow turned around late in the day, surging over 250 points off their lows. Gold remained down. This was a great tell and should be monitored constantly as a leading indicator.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Re: Gold Can Tell The Future

My take on it.....Stocks down, plenty of fear, removal of a significant safe haven in the Swiss Franc, and Gold goes down?

Central banks are in there selling. No doubt about it at all in my mind. They are doing their best to keep the music playing. You know, like the Titanic?

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Gold Can Tell The Future

Very true, sad but true: You know, like the Titanic?

My take on it.....Stocks down, plenty of fear, removal of a significant safe haven in the Swiss Franc, and Gold goes down?

Central banks are in their selling. No doubt about it at all in my mind. They are doing their best to keep the music playing. You know, like the Titanic?