6A interesting Daily Chart - Potentially explosive? (Aussie Dollar)

spearchew

Member
80 0
Interesting spot 6A finds itself in.

I think there could be explosive action in the next 30 days - as to which direction, who can say?

Never have been a great "believer" in technical analysis 101, but on a daily chart such as mine shown, I interpret it in very simple terms:

The trend is up, and on several occasions over the last couple of years, buyers have bought it up from progressively higher lows.

The sellers have put a cap on the rallies, but the trading range has shrunk, and there must surely now be a tonne of stops in both directions... whether it will be the bull or the bears who take those stops, remains to be seen.


http://s15.postimg.org/on0ib2cx5/6a_boom.png
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,055
The chart suggests an eventual upside breakout. You have to take into consideration that volatility across most currency pairs is far below what it was 2 years ago at the beginning of your chart pattern. It will eventually cycle around but it could be a long wait.

Peter
 

spearchew

Member
80 0
would agree the chart implies upside break, if only because the long-term trend is very obviously to the upside... follow the path of least resistance.

As to the volatility taking a while to re-cycle, actually, my *guess* is that there will be an explosive increase in 6A volatility within the next 30/60 days, rather than a longer wait than that.

Reason? The successively higher lows are inevitably heading towards the overhead resistance, and the bulls and bears are going to have to make a decisive call - relatively soon by the look of it - whether they like it or not.

If it breaks through the resistance, the bulls have excuse to buy more and the shorts have to admit defeat. If the most recent 1 or 2 swing lows are broken on the downside, well, i think plenty of Longs will start to think the resistance really is never going to break, and will abandon ship one after the other.

let's just see tho - the market can and will do anything it wishes.
 

Rambo35

Active member
227 6
I do agree that there will be a rather large move in the Aussie dollar and I think it will be to the upside. I favor the AUDUSD and started to enter my longs.
 

Rambo35

Active member
227 6
haha rambo, not sure if serious. The rather large move was to the downside , and it happened already.

I agree that the large move lower is complete and I think we will retest parity. Only 250ish pips but still not to be left on the table :)
 
 
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