6A interesting Daily Chart - Potentially explosive? (Aussie Dollar)

[spearchew]

Interesting spot 6A finds itself in.

I think there could be explosive action in the next 30 days - as to which direction, who can say?

Never have been a great "believer" in technical analysis 101, but on a daily chart such as mine shown, I interpret it in very simple terms:

The trend is up, and on several occasions over the last couple of years, buyers have bought it up from progressively higher lows.

The sellers have put a cap on the rallies, but the trading range has shrunk, and there must surely now be a tonne of stops in both directions... whether it will be the bull or the bears who take those stops, remains to be seen.


http://s15.postimg.org/on0ib2cx5/6a_boom.png

 

[wackypete2]

The chart suggests an eventual upside breakout. You have to take into consideration that volatility across most currency pairs is far below what it was 2 years ago at the beginning of your chart pattern. It will eventually cycle around but it could be a long wait.

Peter

 

[spearchew]

would agree the chart implies upside break, if only because the long-term trend is very obviously to the upside... follow the path of least resistance.

As to the volatility taking a while to re-cycle, actually, my *guess* is that there will be an explosive increase in 6A volatility within the next 30/60 days, rather than a longer wait than that.

Reason? The successively higher lows are inevitably heading towards the overhead resistance, and the bulls and bears are going to have to make a decisive call - relatively soon by the look of it - whether they like it or not.

If it breaks through the resistance, the bulls have excuse to buy more and the shorts have to admit defeat. If the most recent 1 or 2 swing lows are broken on the downside, well, i think plenty of Longs will start to think the resistance really is never going to break, and will abandon ship one after the other.

let's just see tho - the market can and will do anything it wishes.

 

[spearchew]

http://s7.postimg.org/d0xprgrex/6a_update.png
boom!

 

[spearchew]

http://s23.postimg.org/5t8jgbg95/6a_update.png
continued boom.
score 1 point for tech 101?

 

[spearchew]

http://s21.postimg.org/y8dumx5h1/6e_play.png
just playing around on daily charts. 6E looking like head and shoulders?

 

[Rambo35]

I do agree that there will be a rather large move in the Aussie dollar and I think it will be to the upside. I favor the AUDUSD and started to enter my longs.

 

[spearchew]

haha rambo, not sure if serious. The rather large move was to the downside , and it happened already.

 

[Rambo35]

haha rambo, not sure if serious. The rather large move was to the downside , and it happened already.

I agree that the large move lower is complete and I think we will retest parity. Only 250ish pips but still not to be left on the table